The Pigskin Papers Postscript Week 8 - Footing the Bill
King Henry Hits the Shelf
(Posted November 2, 2021)
Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 8 Fantasy Recap. Sunday was scary, and not just because it was Halloween. A lot of frightening things went down in the NFL. Let’s start with this: The Derrick Henry injury stinks. It stinks for fantasy, but more than that, it stinks for The NFL and for football fans in general. Henry was having a historic season and a career year, and having a career year is hard to do when you consider that just last year he became only the 8th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards. The Titans have a firm grip on their division after dispatching the Colts in OT, but without the centerpiece of their offense, it will be interesting to see how they do. Meanwhile, this is how much of an outlier Henry has been this year - it will probably be at least 2 or 3 weeks before anyone passes him in carries, yards or rushing TDs. His 219 carries through 8 games this year - exactly half of the 2020 season - would have been the 9th most among all RBs for the entire 2020 season.
Speaking of those 219 carries, we’ve all been marveling at that usage, and Henry’s durability in the face of it, but this was a harsh reminder that even a guy who comes out on top in almost every collision is vulnerable. Football is a violent game, played by elite athletes in world-class shape. We said this in our Week 7 recap, one week ago:
Now Derrick Henry is THROWING TD passes? Damn. But why is Mike Vrabel giving him 29 carries in a 24-point win? Henry has SIXTY EIGHT more carries than #2 on the list. 68!!! It would be one thing if that was for a full season, but that’s through 7 weeks. I get it - he appears to be indestructible. But come on, be smart.
OK, so I jinxed Derrick Henry. Sorry. But it was a point worth making. Maybe, just maybe, the Titans overworked him. He apparently hurt his foot early in the game and kept playing - carrying the ball 28 times. The other big story of the week was Mike White’s sensational, out-of-nowhere debut as a starting QB, leading the Jets to a stunning 34-31 upset win over the heavily favored Bengals, who got caught looking ahead to the battle of Ohio. More on that later.
Waiver Wire, Week 9: Here is a link to our Week 9 Waiver Wire Column, which also posted today: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/waiver-wire-week-9
Waivers - ALL DAY!
What We Learned - Week 8
Here are my key week 8 takeaways, in no particular order:
The Cardinals aren’t going 20-0. OK, we already knew that, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, missing 3 of their top 4 WRs, found a way to give the Cards their first L, on the road on Thursday night. The ending of the game was bizarre - I think Kyler still doesn’t know what happened - but a win is a win. 1972 Dolphins, pop the corks because your perfect season is like the Internet - still undefeated.
The Saints give Tom Brady fits. Yes, he had 4 TDs. But they picked him off twice and made him uncomfortable at times. It was still a fantasy feast for the Bucs, once again. Start your Bucs, always.
I’ve been fading the Jets all year. But Michael Carter, who was the RB1 this week in full PPR, has emerged as a valuable asset. In the last 2 weeks he’s caught 17 passes for 162 yards, on 23 targets, plus 26 carries across the 2 contests. That’s very heavy usage. I especially like him for however long Mike White is at QB.
Last week, it was D’Ernest Johnson getting his name called as a backup and delivering. This week it was backup QBs getting it done - Mike White, Geno Smith, Trevor Siemian and Cooper Rush all led their teams to wins, and while nobody had any of them in their lineups, to varying degrees they were able to deliver some fantasy points for the players around them.
Get well, Calvin Ridley. For however long he is absent this offense will run through Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson. Russell Gage was held without a catch Sunday.
The Chiefs just aren’t right. This isn’t the same offense we’ve seen the last few years, and the number of miscues (turnovers, penalties) is part of the problem. They’re also not getting the deep shots that have made this offense so explosive - Mahomes averaged 2.1 air yards per completion vs. the Giants - the lowest of his career. I’ve seen lots of explanations for what ails this offense, and it won’t surprise me if in 3 weeks this swoon is a distant memory. But right now, you aren’t getting anything close to the elite production that you paid up for on draft night.
The Chargers were on fire early in the season, but they’ve struggled mightily over the last 2 games. Justin Herbert didn’t throw for more than 225 yards in either game and had 3 TDs against 3 INTs. Mike Williams was a top 5 WR over the first 5 weeks but caught just 2 balls each game, for a total of 46 yards and 0 TDs. Austin Ekeler has cooled off as well. I’m not sure what’s wrong with this offense right now but they don’t look anything like they did a few weeks ago.
Michael Pittman, Jr. is coming into his own. He will be a top 20 WR when we are all drafting next August - maybe even top 15.
Jimmy G did enough on Sunday to keep the Trey Lance talk at bay for at least another week or two. Based on what we’ve seen, Jimmy G gives this team it’s best chance to win, and he is certainly better for the main fantasy pieces on the team, including George Kittle once he returns. Deebo has been a top 5 WR with Jimmy G under center, and Elijah Mitchell is just the most recent unknown back to thrive in the Shanahan system.
It’s kind of odd that with Matt Nagy not on the sideline, Justin Fields finally had a big game for fantasy, and finally ran the ball like we know he can. I still don’t trust Fields, and with him at QB I’m still fading their pass-catchers, but if he is going to run like he did on Sunday (10-103-1) he will have the kind of floor that makes him fantasy relevant, a la Jalen Hurts.
I’ve been saying this all year: Big Ben = Eli, 2018-19. And it’s a shame because the Steelers are a really good team that has very good skill position players - and they’re hard to watch. Chase Claypool’s big play ability isn’t being tapped at all - he had another completely forgettable day Sunday and it’s tough to start him.
Sam Darnold has officially turned back into a pumpkin - maybe CMC’s return can help him get his confidence back. DJ Moore owners would appreciate that.
Cedric Wilson threw the prettiest spiral I saw all weekend. I expected a shootout in that game but it didn’t materialize and the Vikings offense looked pretty impotent in this one. Or maybe Dallas has a very good defense. And Cooper and Lamb are an inexperienced QB’s best friend.
You can’t start any piece of the Browns passing game with confidence. Maybe Jarvis Landry in full PPR, if he and Baker can get healthier. OBJ is irrelevant at this point.
Speaking of players, and teams, you can’t trust - the Eagles score 44 points and DeVonta Smith has 1 catch for 15 yards? Well, at least they’ve started running the ball more, now that Miles Sanders is injured. So it will be Gainwell, right? Yeah, right….Talk about frustrating - they had 4 rushing TDs from RBs Sunday and he got none of them.
10 different Saints caught passes Sunday, and none caught more than 3. That’s the definition of spreading it around. But now the QB is going to change, and Michael Thomas is likely back in the next week or two. So this offense is about to look pretty different. WIth Taysom Hill at QB, I like Alvin Kamara less.
The Tiger Tamer!
GOAT of the Week: MIKE WHITE, come on down!!! I never thought my player of the week would be someone that literally nobody has ever heard of. But here we are. The Jets had so little confidence in White that when Zach WIlson got hurt they traded for an actual corpse in Joe Flacco. But there was White, leading the Jets to an improbable upset while completing 80% of his passes and throwing for over 400 yards and 3 TDs. More on White’s feats in fun facts below, and yeah the Jets got the benefit of one of the worst Unnecessary Roughness penalties ever, but this was special. I live around NYC - if White does anything remotely similar to this on Thursday night, we are going to have Linsanity 2.0. Zach who?
Goat of the week: Carson Wentz. This game was vintage Carson Wentz - the good, the bad and the ugly. To be fair, he got his team to OT against a very good team and overall he has played well this year and especially the last month. But that left handed, shot put INT at the end of regulation was the single worst throw of the year in the NFL, so far. The INT in overtime wasn’t much better.
Here - I don’t want this football any more
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
The NFL’s 7-11: Always Open
Our weekly “Cooper Kupp” is the first player to...stat: He is the first player with 900+ receiving yards and 10+ TDs through the first 8 games of a season.
In 8 games, Kupp has scored more fantasy points than he did all of last season.
Since the start of the 2019 season AJ Brown has 7 plays of 50+ yards. The only player with more during that span is his teammate Derrick Henry, with 8.
In 2008, the Lions became the first team to finish a season 0-16. 13 years later, they have a shot at becoming the first team to go 0-17. Their schedule isn’t easy - it could happen.
Tom Brady now has the most games with 3 or more TD passes (98), and 4 or more TD passes (38), breaking a tie with Drew Brees in both.
If the season ended today, the Jets and Eagles would have 5 of the first 10 draft picks (but only 1 of those picks is in the top 5).
Cordarelle Patterson has scored 48% of his team’s TDs, the highest rate in the NFL
Patterson is the first player since the merger to have 10 rushing TDs, 10 receiving TDs and 5 return TDs for his career.
Mike White Stuff:
First Jets QB to throw for 400 yards in a game since 2000 (Vinny Testaverde)
Second most passing yards in debut as a starting QB since 1950 (Cam Newton, 2011), and they’re the only 2 to throw for >400 yards in a debut in that timeframe
The 2 worst games of Justin Herbert’s career (by QBR) have both been against the New England Patriots.
Matt Lafleur is 33-7 as a head coach, which is the best record for a HC through 40 games in the Super Bowl era.
The Packers are 7-0 in their last 7 games without Davante Adams.
In his last 9 primetime games, Aaron Rodgers is 9-0 as a starter, with 28 TDs and 1 INT.
Through 8 games, the Bears have an NFL-worst 1,019 passing yards. That’s 127.4 per game. The team above them (NO) averages 191 yards per game. Derrick Henry has more total yards from scrimmage than the Bears as a team have passing yards.
Before they beat the Chargers Sunday, in their last 12 games the Patriots were 4-0 vs. the Jets and Texans and 0-8 vs. everyone else.
The Bengals became the first team favored by more than 7 points to lose a game this year (TD+ favorites were 27-0 on the season before they lost to the Jets).
The two teams that the Jets have beaten are a combined 11-4.
18.5% of Elijah Mitchell’s runs have gone for 10 yards or more. That’s the highest % in the league this year (min. 50 carries).
The Cooper Rush to Amari Cooper TD on SNF was the first in NFL history where the QB’s first name and the pass catcher’s last name were an exact match.
In 2020, Andy Dalton threw a TD pass to Dalton Schultz, the only time in NFL history where the QB’s last name and the pass catcher’s first name were an exact match.
In each of the above cases, the Cowboys were playing the Vikings. You can’t make this stuff up.
Cooper to Cooper, for the Win!
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 7 Fantasy Preview!
DH
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