Pigskin Papers Week 9 Fantasy Preview

(Posted November 4, 2021, Updated November 6, 2021, for Injury News)

Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 9 Fantasy Preview. Is everyone OK out there? It’s only Thursday morning, but it’s already one of the strangest NFL weeks I can remember. I don’t know about you, but for me, it got to where I was scared to look at a news or Twitter feed. Consider:

Calvin Ridley is taking time away from football to focus on his mental health (good for you, Calvin).
OBJ was excused from practice Wednesday and according to his Head Coach, he is “not a part of the team at this time,” whatever that means.
Michael Thomas declared that he is not coming back from his ankle injury this year due to a setback. That’s right, Thomas announced that he isn’t playing at all this season, not the Saints.
Henry Ruggs happened. You know the gruesome details. What a horrible, sad, and avoidable tragedy.

And that’s JUST the wide receivers! Elsewhere:

Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and is out this week vs. the Chiefs. He is unvaccinated, meaning it’s a minimum of 10 days away from the team. I won’t get into this - there has been plenty written about his supposed “immunization”, some failures to follow mask protocols, etc.
Adrian Peterson is back! ALL DAY! The Titans signed him on Monday, as soon as an extended absence for Derrick Henry was confirmed. He is 36, and like the rest of us, was literally sitting on his couch 5 days ago. And yet, he was the hottest waiver commodity since Elijah Mitchell after Week 1, and he has a chance to be a major factor in fantasy for the second half of the season.
Jameis Winston’s injury has been confirmed as a season-ending ACL tear, and jack-of-all-trades Taysom Hill is once again coming out of the bullpen to quarterback the Saints, starting Sunday.
Saquon Barkley, hoping to return this week from a multi-week absence due to an ankle injury, tested positive for COVID and will likely miss this week.
The trade deadline came and went, and very little happened. Deshaun Watson is still being paid by the Texans not to play, and Tua is still Miami’s starter. I’d like to thank certain members of the media, and the Texans’ leaky front office, for 3 months of non-stop dishonest clickbait, telling us things like “a deal is done” and “a package has been agreed” and “Watson will definitely be moved by the deadline.” Tua, good job of keeping your head down.

Got all of that? Let me again emphasize that it’s still only Thursday morning.

INJURY UPDATE:

QB:

Rodgers is OUT, Jordan Love gets the start (see Rides and Fades)
Kyler is a true GTD
Tua, Big Ben and Darnold are all questionable but likely to play
Dak is starting and so is Trevor Siemian. Taysom Hill will get his typical role.

RB:

Saquon is OUT and so is Lat Murray
CMC is iffy, and if he plays will be on a snap count. J-Rob is also a GTD.
Elijah Mitchell practiced on a limited basis and is questionable. Jeff Wilson could get activated, but it will probably be another 1-2 weeks.
David Montgomery has been activated from IR and has a shot to play Monday night.

Pass Catchers:

OUT: Sterling Shepard, Noah Fant, Dawson Knox, Will Fuller, Devante Parker (IR), Calvin Ridley (IR)
IN: K. Toney, Julio Jones, Terrance Marshall
GTD: Nuk Hopkins, Deebo, Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman, Cole Beasley, DPJ
Likely to play: C. Lamb, A. Cooper, AJ Brown, Robert Woods, George Kittle

Before we turn to the Rides and Fades, let’s look at some analytics. Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied point totals for the week:

Top 5:

BUFF (31.7) @ JAC

LAR (31) vs. TEN

DAL (29.7) vs. DEN

IND (28.5) vs. NYJ

BAL (27.5) vs. MIN

Bottom 5:

CHI (16.75) PIT

JAC (17.25) vs. BUF

NYJ (18) @ IND

ATL (18) @ NO

CAR (18.5) vs. NE

And here are a few of the more interesting ground and passing game matchups:

RUSHING

MIA’s 30th ranked rush offense vs. HOU’s 31st ranked rush defense

PHI vs. LAC’s 32nd ranked rush defense

CIN vs. CLE’s 3rd ranked rush defense

MIN vs. BAL’s 4th ranked rush defense

PASSING

LV’s 2nd ranked pass offense vs. NYG’s 23rd ranked pass defense

BUF’s 6th ranked pass offense vs JAC’s 32nd ranked pass defense

MIN vs. BAL’s 32nd ranked pass defense

GB’s pass offense, minus Rodgers, vs. KC’s 25th ranked pass defense

CHI’s 32nd ranked pass offense against anyone - this week it’s the 13th ranked PIT pass defense

SF and ARI are ranked 3rd and 4th vs. the pass, and they’re playing each other

BYES Week 9: Lions, Seahawks, Bucs, Football Team

Rides and Fades

The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 3 options at their positions as “Rides” because, well, they aren’t ever in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Cooper Kupp (wow - I needed a name to replace Derrick Henry there, and he was the first guy who came to mind - Cooper freaking Kupp!). While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE. Since the idea here is comparing players to expectations, the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

How did we do last week? Very well, thank you. I’d like to have a few back, like fade calls on Rodgers and Lockett, but I hit on a lot more than I missed, including a bunch of “Ride” calls on receivers that hit (Deebo, Godwin, Pittman, Thielen and AJ Brown). Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see all the hits and misses: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-8-fantasy-preview

Here we go - the Week 9 Rides and Fades:

QB:

Rides:

Tua. The Deshaun Watson noise is gone, for now. The Dolphins have lost 7 in a row and they, and Tua, desperately need a win. Thankfully, Watson’s putrid team is coming to town. Tua struggled on the road vs. the Bills but every QB struggles against them - they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs. Now Tua gets a bad defense that struggles everywhere and has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to QBs. FRIDAY UPDATE: Davante Parker won’t be back, which is a drag, and Tua is a bit banged up. Still, I expect the Dolphins to look competent this week, led by a top 10 performance from Tua (assuming he plays).
At first glance, Jalen Hurts looks like a risky start at the Chargers. They’ve been a tough matchup for QBs and have allowed the 3rd fewest points to the position. But here’s the thing - the Chargers rank dead last vs. the run and I think that’s where the fantasy points will come from. Hurts has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every game but one this year, and that game was last week’s blowout win against the Lions where all he needed to do was turn and hand the ball off. Let’s ride Hurts and his legs.
Kirk Cousins was a bit of a disappointment last week, against a Dallas defense that’s a lot better than expected. But this week, he faces a Ravens defense that’s ranked dead last against the pass. The Ravens shut down Justin Herbert but then got shredded by Joe Burrow, so who knows? I think this game could turn into a shootout and I like Cousins to do some damage in this one.
Joe Burrow comes in red hot - he’s thrown 3 TD passes in 3 straight and he’s the only QB with at least 2 TD passes in every game so far this season. He might also be hot after his team’s startling loss to the Jets last week. I like him to light up a Browns defense that he lit up last year, and which has given up 17 TD passes and the 5th most fantasy points to QBs - he is our QB Ride of the Week.
A couple of other QBs I like as Rides this week: Carson Wentz vs. the Jets, and Justin Herbert to right the ship vs. the Eagles.
And how about some sleepers? Our original QB Sleeper of the Week was Taysom Hill, but , UPDATE: on Friday morning the Saints announced that Trevor Siemian is starting. I don’t have a ton of interest in Siemian. So…Here is what we wrote on Thursday: And I would not start either of these guys in season-long formats, but in DFS, why not buy a Mike White or Jordan Love lottery ticket? I can’t wait to see what White does tonight, after last week. As for Love, like White last week, nobody has any idea what to expect in his debut as a starter, but he does have a tasty matchup against a bad KC defense that’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs. To hell with it, Love is the substitute QB Sleeper of the Week!

Fades:

Matt Ryan’s streak of good play came to an abrupt end last week and I’d sit him against a good Saints defense, plus I think it’s going to take this team a few weeks to adjust to life without Calvin Ridley.
Teddy Bridgewater started the season hot, and he should have all of his weapons back and healthy, but I don’t like the matchup against the Cowboys. And speaking of QBs who started hot, right now I don’t like Sam Darnold against anyone, much less the Patriots, who have a history of making him see ghosts.
Don’t be fooled by what Justin Fields did last week. It was promising for sure, but this week he gets a Steelers defense that’s been playing really well, and will be coming after him with both barrels. I’m still fading all the rookie QBs - it’s been an easy (and highly accurate) call every week.
Ryan Tannehill could be in for a tough week. It’s a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that already was allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points to QBs before adding Von Miller, and without Derrick Henry, a lot will be on Tannehill’s shoulders. I like him going forward - the Titans should be opening things up and passing more, and A.J. Brown is a beast - but I’m not ready to jump in this week. He is my QB Fade of the Week.
I hate betting against Kyler Murray, who is coming off his worst fantasy start of the year. But his ankle is an issue and I don’t know how well he will be able to move or run - which is obviously a key to his success. The 49ers rank 3rd against the pass and it’s not an easy matchup. Kyler is ranked inside the top 10 and if you have him it’s doubtful you have a better option, but I don’t see him as a top 10 play this week and that makes him a Fade. UPDATE - Kyler is likely to be a GTD, as is his best WR (Hopkins) - this just solidifies the Fade call on him.

RB

Najee Harris should feast on a Bears defense that has fallen off of late and just got gashed by another rookie RB (Elijah Mitchell) for 137 yards. Throw in his receiving work, and the fact that the Steelers should control this game and time of possession, and Harris is my RB Ride of the Week.
Speaking of Mitchell, he’s working through a rib injury, but assuming he plays, he again should get all of the early down work and should have success against an Arizona defense that Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon ran over and through last week.
Keep riding Darrell Henderson. He just keeps producing, regardless of opponent - there are benefits to being the lead RB in a top offense. He’s an RB1 - get used to it.
And let’s fire up Michael Carter - as long as check-down artist Mike White is the QB, I like Carter and especially in full PPR. He has 17 catches in his last 2 games and should be busy again tonight. Plus he passes the eye test - the Jets got him in the 4th round which looks like a really nice find.
Zach Moss is ranked outside the top 15 this week. We don’t need any stats for this one - the Bills are very good, the Jaguars are very bad, the Bills are going to score a lot of points, and Moss figures to be involved in that. He is a Ride.
There are a few RBs I like as Rides this week who are ranked in the 20s, and who I think have a great shot to finish in the top 15 or even higher:
- Josh Jacobs has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, but when he has been in, he has produced. He has yet to get 20 touches in a game which is a concern, but still he has 5 TDs in 5 1/2 games. The Giants rank in the bottom third against RBs - he is a Ride, assuming he plays.
- In the same game, I like Devontae Booker to keep it going against a Raiders defense that’s allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs. Booker should be getting another start with Barkley on the COVID list, and he has been a very pleasant surprise in Barkley’s stead. UPDATE: the COVID test was a false positive, but Barkley is OUT anyway with his sprained ankle.
- I like Boston Scott to lead the Eagles backfield again and he is this week’s lucky “running back going against the Chargers, and their 32nd ranked run defense”. Two caveats: before last week the Eagles were allergic to giving the ball to their running backs, and maybe Scott won’t lead the backfield again this week. But hopefully the Eagles have figured out that using your RBs actually helps you win games, and that Scott is a playmaker. He is ranked outside the top 25 and is my RB Sleeper of the Week. Want a deeper sleeper? A.J. Dillon at the Chiefs.
- I might get struck by lightning for this, which would make the 6th time I’ve been burned badly by this guy this year, but I’m in on Myles Gaskin this week. Miami’s run game has been atrocious, but so has the Texans’ run defense. They’re the only team in the NFL that has given up more than 1,000 rushing yards, they’ve allowed 8 rushing TDs, and they’ve allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs. Let’s do this.
The Fades:

James Robinson and/or Carlos Hyde. My guess is J-Rob is out for this one, which gives Hyde a nice opportunity to dominate touches, but the Bills are just a nasty opponent for RBs. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position, and my guess is the Jags will abandon the run early in this one.
Adrian Peterson. Look, I’m excited to see what he can do in this offense, and I advised grabbing him this week and spending a bunch of FAAB to do it. But it’s a lot to expect for him to do much after just 5 days, against a top defense. I think Jeremy McNichols will probably lead the team in RB touches, but given the uncertainty and the matchup, I wouldn’t start either of them this week unless I was stuck. Better days ahead.
Khalil Herbert is fun to watch. And he ran really well against the Bucs’ stifling run defense 2 weeks ago. But the Steelers just shut down Nick Chubb last week and I think the Bears are going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball in this one. Check their implied total - it’s the lowest on the board. Plus, the Steelers have only allowed 2 RB scores this year, and 0 through the air. Throw in some usage uncertainty, and Herbert is a Fade.
Chase Edmonds finally scored a TD last week! His owners rejoiced, and feasted all night. Edmonds is ranked inside the top 20 this week but I am worried about him in this one. The 49ers are a tough defense on pass catching RBs - yielding only 1 receiving score to RBs and among the lowest yardage and catch totals. Edmonds is my RB Fade of the Week.

WR

Rides:

Hollywood Brown has been very productive all season but just isn’t getting the love - he is ranked outside the top 15 again this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7th most fantasy points, and 9 TDs (in 7 games), to opposing WRs. I think this game is going to have points - Hollywood is my WR Ride of the Week.
Cooper Kupp, the #1 WR in fantasy, is going up against the Titans, who have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs. Kupp is too obvious of a name and not eligible to be a Ride, but I’m just pointing out that this week he might be the WR Ride of the Season. I do like Robert Woods as a Ride this week though, at his lower-teens ranking. Woods has been picking it up of late, and should get his in this game. Look at the Rams implied total again - there are plenty of treats for everyone.
Back to Vikings-Ravens, give me BOTH Vikings receivers as Rides. Adam Thielen just keeps scoring TDs (he has 6 in 7 games), but like Hollywood, he finds himself shunned by the experts and sits outside the top 15 in the weekly rankings. And I know Justin Jefferson is coming off a very subpar outing, but this Ravens defense ranks dead last against the pass and I see a big bounceback.
Michael Pittman, you delivered big for me last week. Against the Jets, and with T.Y. Hilton still out, you’re a Ride again, and especially at your ranking of RB15 which I think is too low. The Jets have actually been decent against WRs, but between 2 games vs. New England, 1 against the Titans without Brown and Jones, and 1 against Atlanta without Ridley, they really haven’t played against many good ones and this guy is a budding star who makes big plays every week, and especially when the Colts are without Hilton.
It’s not every day you see Davante Adams ranked as the WR10. I get it - he is coming back from COVID, and more importantly, we have no idea what this offense will look like with Jordan Love at QB, and one would expect the Packers to be conservative and run the ball a lot. But there is a version of this game where the Packers fall behind and Love targets Adams all day, knowing that the Chiefs can’t cover anyone, much less him. I’ll take the gamble - and if you have him you’re starting him regardless, and crossing your fingers.
A few more Rides: Diontae Johnson vs. the Bears, and Brandin Cooks at the Dolphins who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and in the same game, Jaylen Waddle.
More sleepers to ride if you need them, all ranked outside the top 30 this week: Jamison Crowder tonight against the Colts, Kadarius Toney against the Raiders (if he suits up), and Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards against the Giants. And keep an eye on Jamal Agnew going forward. I don’t recommend him this week against the Bills, but he has 25 targets in his last 3 games and is a decent dart throw bargain in DFS. Renfrow and Edwards are our WR Sleepers of the Week.

Fades:

DeVonta Smith has been hit or miss, in an offense that struggles to throw the ball with any consistency. He only caught one pass last week and it’s hard to trust him against a Chargers secondary that’s allowed the second fewest fantasy points to WRs, and only 3 TDs to the position. That secondary is banged up now, but still, he’s a Fade.
I’ve said it every week since week 2 and I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know - fade Allen Robinson, and now that the trade deadline has passed you can consider dropping him if you need to - you certainly can’t consider starting him. And this week, I’d also fade Darnell Mooney.
Mike Williams has cooled off considerably after a torrid start, along with the entire Chargers offense - he has totalled just 4 catches, 46 yards and 0 TDs over the last 2 games. He isn’t 100% healthy and I think the Eagles will focus on keeping everything in front of them. It’s a bit surprising that they’ve allowed the 3rd fewest points per game to opposing WRs after how bad they were last year, but at this point it’s enough of a sample size to believe it. Williams is ranked inside the top 15 this week and I just don’t see that kind of finish from him.
D.J. Moore is ranked just outside the top 10 this week. I love the talent, but Sam Darnold has fallen off of a cliff and this is the wrong team for him to try to get right against. I think Moore is the weapon that New England will try to take away, and sadly he is my WR Fade of the Week.
In the same game, Jakobi Meyers is a Fade again this week - the Panthers rank 2nd against the pass and have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to WRs. This offense runs primarily through the RBs and TEs, making it hard to have confidence in their receivers.
I don’t see Marvin Jones or Laviska Shenault having much success against the Bills this week. I do think the Jaguars will be way behind, but the Bills D has really shut down WRs this year, yielding the fewest fantasy points against and only 2 TDs to the position.

TE

Rides:

Mike Gesicki has been listed in this space a lot, which is good because he has been killing it for weeks. This week he gets to play against the Texans, who are tied for the league lead with 6 TDs allowed to TEs, and they’re bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to the position. What’s that you say? How can I have so many Dolphins on the Rides list when their offense is ranked 30th overall, and has been a sticky mess all season? Are you accusing me of being a Miami homer? Fine - good questions. My answer is that they’re playing the Texans, at home. And this one is particularly easy to defend as Gesicki is a top 4 TE on the year in all scoring formats, but keeps getting ranked lower than that.
Dallas Goedert is the one Eagles pass catcher you can trust, and this week he faces the Chargers who’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to the position. Goedert is my TE Ride of the Week.
I always have trouble finding TEs I like each week, but I’ll give you a few more rides: C.J. Uzomah against the Browns and Zach Ertz at the 49ers, and two sleepers: Evan Engram against the Raiders and Tyler Conklin at the Ravens, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to TEs this year. Conklin is ranked outside the top 15, so let’s make him the TE Sleeper of the Week.

Fades:

I’m high on Pat Friermuth for the rest of the season - I’ve touted him as a waiver add for a couple of weeks running. But the matchup this week is a bad one and I’m fading him. The Bears have allowed just 25 catches and 1 TD all year to TEs, and the second fewest fantasy points. It’s going to be easy for the Steelers to exploit other matchups in this one.
Another defense that’s been very stingy to TEs is Denver, which hasn’t allowed a TE to score this year, and has yielded the 4th fewest fantasy points to the position. I think the Cowboys will find plenty of ways to move the ball and score against Denver. Dalton Schultz is ranked inside the top 10 this week and he is my TE Fade of the Week.
A few more TEs I am fading this week: Dan Arnold against the Bills, Cole Kmet against the Steelers, and Tyler Higbee against Tennessee.

Have fun setting your lineups, and good luck to all in Week 9. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly waiver wire column, and the weekly fantasy recap.

***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***

DH

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