The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 12
The Newest NFL Weapon: The Runner/Receiver
(Posted November 30, 2021)
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Welcome readers, to the Pigskin Papers Week 12 fantasy recap. What a weekend it was, with 3 games on Thanksgiving Day, 11 more on Sunday, and one on Monday - wall to wall NFL football, with a wild finish to the last game being the proverbial cherry on top. Some of it was even really good to watch, and not ruined by the refs, injuries or atrocious QB play. There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s dive right in.
The Top Waiver Add - See the Waivers Column
Waiver Wire, Week 13: Here’s the link to our Week 13 Waiver Wire column, which posted after the game last night: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/the-pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-13
What We Learned - Week 12
Road, Meet End of Road
Here are my key week 12 fantasy takeaways (and some NFL takeaways), in no particular order:
The AFC has a lot of good teams, and the NFC doesn’t. 12 AFC teams have a record of .500 or better, vs. only 6 NFC teams. 13 of the 16 AFC teams - everyone except the Jaguars, Jets and Texans, have a realistic shot at the playoffs. Even Miami at 5-7 isn’t dead - their next 2 games are at home against the 2 New York City teams, meaning they have a decent shot to get to 7-7, which should be right in the mix. As the AFC heads down the stretch, I think the computer that calculates playoff possibilities is going to break. Division records, conference records, records vs. common opponents, strength of victories, strength of schedule - it’s all going to matter.
Restating a point from last week: The AFC North and West divisions play each other this year. Between that and division games, a lot of potential AFC playoff teams are going to be playing against each other (and beating each other up) week after week, the rest of the way.
The Seahawks’ offense is truly atrocious. It’s amazing that Seattle came within a 2 point conversion of tying that game last night, considering how big the WFT’s advantage was in time of possession, plays run, first downs, and pretty much every other metric. It was total domination, and if Joey Slye didn’t get hurt, the outcome wouldn’t have been in doubt at the end. You’ve probably seen all the stats - the Seahawks are dead last in the NFL in plays run (54 per game), and their opponents are averaging a league-high 79 plays run against. Russ is struggling and they absolutely can’t run the ball or convert third downs. It’s looking like the end of the road for the Carroll-Wilson Seahawks -it was fun while it lasted. I feel you, D.K. Metcalf owners. Over the last 4 weeks, Metcaff is averaging less than 4 fantasy points per game in Half PPR - you don’t even want to know where that ranks him. The good news for me? I correctly predicted the Seahawks’ demise: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/four-good-teams-from-2020-that-i-am-genuinely-worried-about
Speaking of offenses that are hard to watch - the Cincy-Pit game felt like a changing of the guard moment - 2 elevators passing each other as one rockets up and the other descends to the basement. The Steelers have lots of talent on both sides of the ball, but a failing Big Ben (a/k/a, Eli 2.0) and a bad O-line are really holding them back. The enormous fantasy potential of Najee-Johnson-Claypool-Friermuth is barely being tapped.
The 49ers are finally running the kind of offense we expected - power running, creative running, misdirection, and lots of play-action off of the running game. And the defense is playing well. The 49ers aren’t dead yet. They need a healthy Deebo, though - he’s been amazing all season.
Remember what former Eagles Coach Buddy Ryan said about HOF receiver Cris Carter? That he just scores touchdowns? Well, Carter went on to score a whole bunch of TDs with the Vikings, and do you know who else is doing that? Adam Thielen. He’s got 24 TDs in his last 26 games. That’s not a misprint, folks. The Vikings are the most fantasy-friendly team in the NFL - almost everything runs through just 4 guys. They should give lessons to everyone else. I see you all nodding your heads.
We’ve heard a lot all season about Ja’Marr Chase and Devonta Smith, and deservedly so. Well, it’s time to talk about Jaylen Waddle, who’s flown under the radar on a struggling Dolphins offense. So I’m going to talk about him. He’s been highly productive and remarkably consistent all year. Waddle now has 77 catches, which is the 2nd most ever by any player through his first 12 NFL games (trailing only OBJ). He’s got a shot to break Anquan Boldin’s rookie record of 101 catches. If Miami can ever get its other starting WRs back, Waddle would presumably lose some targets but his full skillset and deep speed might come into play more. Waddle should be a top 15-20 WR in drafts next year, and maybe higher in Full PPR. This rookie WR class is looking pretty special.
Speaking of rookie pass catchers - remember how everyone was proclaiming that the Kyle Pitts breakout had arrived, after he had 7 catches for 163 yards in Week 7? Well, in the 5 weeks since, he has totalled just 14 catches for 190 yards, with a goose egg for TDs. That makes him the TE23 during that stretch. His season has been a big disappointment vs. expectations. The focal point of this offense is Cordarelle Patterson, and especially with Calvin Ridley out.
Is Aaron Jones losing his gig to A.J. Dillon? Jones was coming off an MCL strain this week and was questionable to even play, so I don’t want to overreact to the 25-10 disparity in touches. But Dillon has really emerged in the last month or so and is showing out as the perfect kind of back for the Packers - he’s a better pass catcher than advertised, and he’s a punisher who can pound the rock as Green Bay salts away leads in the second half. Jones is still the starter, but I expect close to a 50-50 split the rest of the way, if that. I’d rather have Dillon on my fantasy team from this point forward.
The Ravens have scored just 1 offensive TD in each of their last 3 games. They somehow went 2-1 in those games, but they need to get it fixed if they’re going to contend. Needless to say, this offensive slump has been bad for their fantasy producers, across the board.
Ok Saints, can we please see if Taysom Hill can help out this moribund offense (I always wanted to use that word)? Yeah, I know that Kamara has missed the last 3 games, and Ingram and Trautman missed this one too, and Michael Thomas never came back, and the line is banged up, but come on. Who Dat??? It ain’t the Sean Payton Saints, that’s for sure.
Can we get an apology from the NFL for making us all watch a Lions-Bears game? The finish was actually exciting, for those who didn’t turn it off long before. Let’s hope D’Andre Swift is back soon - he’s the one bright spot for Detroit, which is one more bright spot than the Bears have at the moment.
I give up on trying to figure out Myles Gaskin. Just play him, I guess...
Lenny Pounds the Colts
GOAT of the Week: LEONARD FOURNETTE. I’m having a fresh serving of crow this morning - Lenny Fourns was my RB Fade of the Week, but he ran through, around and over a tough Colts run defense for 4 total TDs and 40+ fantasy points in Full PPR. How did we ever doubt this guy after last year’s playoff run? Lenny, have a cold one on me, and a good laugh at my expense. Swing and a miss for the Pigskin Papers.
Goat of the week: Several QBs have submitted their applications, and they’re all really strong: Big Ben, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Cam Newton, and a late entry just came in from Russell Wilson - these 5 really stunk up the joint in Week 12. It’s close, and they’re all pretty worthy, but Cam’s stat line: 5 for 21 for 92 yards, with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, is just about as bad as it gets. Throw in that he’s the only one of the 5 who got benched, and we’ll give it to Cam. His inability to throw with strength and accuracy, which we saw to an alarming degree in each of the last 2 seasons, is a huge concern, obviously.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Waddle: On a Roll
Matt Stafford has thrown a pick-6 in 3 straight games. His opposite number this past Sunday, Aaron Rodgers, has thrown 3 in his entire career.
On Thanksgiving night, the Saints were held to 6 points. That was their lowest output in a home game since 2005 (twice that year, at LSU’s stadium), and their lowest at the Superdome since 2002.
If the season ended today, the draft order from picks 4-9 would be as follows: 4. Jets 5. Jets 6. Giants 7. Giants 8. Eagles 9. Eagles. Really.
The Raiders have played in 3 OT games this year, and have won all 3 (the Ravens and Vikings have also played 3 OT games this season).
The Raiders-Cowboys game on Thanksgiving Day was the highest rated regular season game since 1990.
That’s a shame, because all those fans who finished their turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie and tuned in to see some football were treated to 28 total penalties - 14 against each team. That’s some kind of record for yellow laundry, I’m sure. The Cowboys had more than 100 yards of penalties on third down alone. The Cowboys set team records for both penalties (14) and yards (166). And I think the Raiders now have a play called “go deep and draw a flag”. In fact, I think every NFL team has some version of this play, sadly.
Is Deebo Samuel creating a new position? We can just call it “offensive weapon”. Some cool Deebo stats:
Deebo has the most rushing TDs in a season (5) of any WR in the Super Bowl era.
Deebo is the first WR to have rushing TDs in 3 straight games within a season in the Super Bowl era.
Deebo has the most rushing yards in a season for any WR who also has over 1,000 receiving yards in that season (how’s that for a convoluted stat?).
Jared Goff still has never won an NFL game where Sean McVay was not his Head Coach.
Over his last 2 games, Tua has completed 54 of 64 passes (83%), and over his last 4 games, Jaylen Waddle has caught 29 of his 35 targets (83%).
The starting QBs in the Miami-Carolina game, Tua and Cam Newton, completed 87% and 24% of their passes, respectively - a delta of 63 percentage points. If anyone knows what the record is for that disparity, please put it in the comment box below.
The Jets and Giants both won on Sunday. That’s only the 3rd time in the last 3 seasons that they’ve both won on the same weekend. That’s how bad it’s been in NYJ/NJ...
Lamar Jackson targeted Mark Andrews on all 4 of his INTs on Sunday night. He’s the 4th QB in the last 25 years to throw 4 INTs targeting the same pass catcher (the others - Eli Manning, Luke McCown and Mark Sanchez).
The Patriots have had a 6 game winning streak (or longer) in 14 of Bill Belichick’s 22 seasons.
The Giants only managed to score 3 points off of the 4 Eagles turnovers that they forced.
Christian McCaffrey was the consensus #1 fantasy pick in both 2020 and 2021. He will end up playing in a total of 10 games (out of a possible 33) in those 2 seasons, suffering 4 separate injuries.
Speaking of which - since the start of the 2020 season, Saquon Barkley has played in 9 games (out of a possible 27), and in those games has averaged 32 rushing yards per game.
Only 2 PATS have been blocked this entire season - one was on Sunday night and it was returned for 2 points - one of the rarest plays in the NFL.
Missed this last week - The Colts 41-15 win over Buffalo in Week 11 was a Scorigami - the Colts have been involved in 2 of the 5 Scorigamis so far this season.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 13 Fantasy Preview!
DH
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