Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 13
The Handcuff Rides Again!
(Posted December 2, 2021, updated for injuries and weather December 5, 2021)
***Follow the blog on social media:Twitter: @PigskinPapers, Insta: thepigskinpapers***
Is it really December already? Where did the football season go? For many fantasy managers, it went down the drain due to some combination of poor player performance, injuries, bad luck, and bad decisions. For others, you’re still scrapping, and some combination of players who’ve met or exceeded expectations, good trades and waiver wire finds, and other good fortune and smart decisions has put you in a position to get into the playoffs and contend for your league title. If that’s you, congratulations, and good luck down the stretch and into the playoffs.
December is my favorite part of the NFL season - the weather gets colder, nobody is fully healthy, and teams, players and coaches are fighting not only for the playoffs but also for their livelihoods. December is when some NFL teams assert themselves, others wilt under the weight of the long season, and still others try to lay a positive foundation for next year by giving younger players more opportunities, and trying to get some wins.
That’s how the critical month of December typically plays out in the NFL. In the mirror world of fantasy football, December IS the playoffs (I’ll never understand why, but I’ve written about that, and that’s another discussion for another day*). But since that’s the standard (and dumb) convention that governs the world of fantasy football, for those still in contention these next few weeks are critical. Unfortunately, we’ve still got byes to contend with for 2 more weeks, and a slew of injuries to deal with. So matchups and start/sit decisions are as important as ever. Let’s jump in.
*For more on this, see: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/three-of-the-dumbest-things-about-fantasy-football-and-how-to-fix-them-part-iii-1
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT
Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 13:
Top 5 :
TB (31) @ ATL
LAR (31) vs. JAC
KC (29) vs. DEN
IND (28) @ HOU
3 tied at 27 (CIN, MIN, ARI)
Bottom 5:
JAC (18) @ LAR
HOU (18) vs. IND
NYG (19) @ MIA
DEN (19) @ KC
CHI (19) vs. ARI
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT:
The Bills have consistently been the toughest defense for fantasy players to go against all year, with the Jonathan Taylor game being a notable exception. Other defenses have been very tough, at times. The Patriots’ defense has been especially tough for the last month or so, although two different Titans’ RBs rushed for 100 yards against them last week. New England visits Buffalo on Monday night, so that could be a tough game for fantasy performance. Or not - both teams can move the ball and one thing we’ve learned this year is to expect the unexpected. Anyway - you’re always going to play your studs, but there are definitely some matchups in the running and passing game to avoid (or exploit) if you can, and we’ll talk about that as we go through the Rides and Fades.
*********SUNDAY MORNING Injury and Weather Update**********
We’ve got a LOT of names this week. Here we go, with the latest:
QB:
Daniel Jones is OUT with a neck injury, Mike Glennon gets the start at Miami.
Jalen Hurts is OUT with an ankle injury, Gardner Minshew gets the start at the Jets
Kyler Murray is expected to START, barring a setback in pregame warmups
Andy Dalton gets another start for Chicago.
RB:
OUT: D’Andre Swift (fire up Jamaal Williams), Dalvin Cook (fire up Alexander Mattison), Melvin Gordon (great spot for Javonte Williams, consider him a Ride the week), Jordan Howard, J.D. McKissic, David Johnson
DOUBTFUL: Philip Lindsay
QUESTIONABLE: Darrell Henderson (sounds like he is on the doubtful side, so fire up Sony Michel with confidence if he can’t go), James Robinson
QUESTIONABLE BUT EXPECTED TO PLAY: Boston Scott, CEH, Josh Jacobs, and the Seahawks trio of shame: Collins, Homer, Penny
GOOD TO GO: Miles Sanders
WR AND TE:
OUT: Deebo Samuel, Darren Waller, McLovin (Antonio Brown)
DOUBTFUL: K. Toney, Sterling Shepard, Allen Robinson
QUESTIONABLE: Nuk Hopkins (might play fewer than normal snaps), Corey Davis
QUESTIONABLE BUT EXPECTED TO PLAY: OBJ, Brandin Cooks, Devante Parker, Curtis Samuel, DeSean Jackson
GOOD TO GO: Pat Friermuth
******WEATHER ALERT******: It’s December, and foul weather has arrived with it, right where you’d expect it. The big concern is the MNF game (NE@BUF), where the issue will be strong sustained winds (in the 30-40 mph range), plus temperatures right around freezing and possibly some mixed precipitation. The windy conditions could impact the passing game and even more, the kicking game - and this contest features 2 of the top fantasy options at PK. The other potential trouble spot is Chicago, where the Cardinals and Bears face off at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The forecast is calling for steady rain, with moderately strong sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range).
BYES Week 13: PANTHERS, BROWNS, PACKERS, TITANS
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs (yup, even D.K. Metcalf, and cue the dispirited Metcalf managers wringing their hands and cursing out loud while they consider starting someone like Tyler Boyd or Rondale Moore instead). You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp, or Tom Brady and Gronk at the Falcons. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades did OK last week, but I’ll be honest, it wasn't’t my best work. There were plenty of hits across the board, but some big misses too - the one I’d really like to have back was the “RB Fade of the Week” call on Lenny Fournette. Ouch. I’ll eat that one - I still think the advice made sense at the time. Or maybe I’m just telling myself that so I don’t feel like a complete idiot. Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see where I hit and missed: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-12 .
Here we go - the Week 13 Rides and Fades:
QB
Rides:
Booooring!
Kirk Cousins is boring. No offense, Kirk. I’m trying to think of a memorable, epic moment from his career, and I’m drawing a blank. There was that incredible Saints-Vikings playoff game in 2018 that the Vikings won on a last second, long TD pass to Stefon Diggs - oh wait, that pass was thrown by Case Keenum, and not Cousins. Yeah, Cousins is boring (again, no offense, Kirk, and I’m sure you’re fun at parties) - you’ll never hear his name when anyone is discussing the NFL’s top QBs. But do you know what else he is? He’s good, and he’s underrated, especially as a fantasy QB. He’s thrown 23 TDs this year against just 3 INTs, he’s already over 3,000 passing yards on the season, and he’s thrown multiple TDs in 4 straight games. He’s the QB9 on the season in total fantasy points scored (QB11 on a PPG basis) - just 8 fantasy points separates him from Aaron Rodgers (they’ve both played 11 games). Yup, he’s a low-end QB1 and a consistent one at that. This week, he faces the Lions and their lost season. The Vikings are in the mix for the NFC wild card spots and they need this game. Cousins is my QB Ride of the Week.
The Rams have dropped 3 in a row, and Matt Stafford is banged up and has been struggling. Logic says stay away - the Jaguars, surprisingly, are not an easy matchup for QBs - but I think this home game is a good spot for him to bounce back. Stafford is ranked at the bottom of the top 10 this week and I’m thinking a top 5 finish is in play, as the Rams try to run it up in a “get right” game.
Jalen Hurts is coming off of his worst game of the year. The Giants did a number on him last week, turned him over multiple times, and exposed some flaws in his still-evolving makeup as a passer. This week he gets the other team from NYC, and their terrible defense. I like Hurts to bounce back against the Jets, who are especially awful against the run, and to hurt them with his legs, and as needed, his arm. Ride him.
There are a few QBs ranked in the teens that I’m pretty high on this week - all are good streaming options for you Rodgers owners: Tua (and the red-hot Dolphins) at home vs. the Giants, Derek Carr at home vs the WFT (who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to QBs), Carson Wentz at Houston, and Taylor Heinicke at Las Vegas (who’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs). Heinicke is ranked outside the top 15 and he’s my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
I’m going to keep fading Russell Wilson - a call that’s now 3 for 3 since his return from injury. He wasn’t a total disaster as a fantasy start on Monday night thanks to a late TD, but anyone who watched that game saw how abysmal the Seattle offense is. They can’t run the ball. They can’t convert third downs or sustain drives. They’ve run by far the fewest plays in the NFL. And it looks like Russ is pressing. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 6th against the pass and aren’t an easy matchup. I don’t think this is the week that Seattle gets on track, and Russ is my QB Fade of the Week.
Mac Jones has been all the rage the last few weeks. And yeah, he’s playing really well, is firmly in the mix for offensive rookie of the year, and has entered steamer territory for fantasy. And yeah, Buffalo just lost one of the best corners in football. I still wouldn’t start him against the Bills, who’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs and are the only NFL team that’s surrendered fewer than 10 TD passes on the year (they’ve allowed 8, the next fewest is 14).
Taysom Hill is expected to get his first start of the year tonight. I’ll take a pass. Alvin Kamara is iffy for this one and the pass-catching corps is one of the worst in the NFL. Hill has a nice rushing floor but the Saints have looked terrible on offense for the last few weeks. No thanks.
Jimmy G has played very well for the last month, and he’s been a good lower-end fantasy option. I don’t love the matchup at Seattle (a top 10 defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs), and especially without Deebo Samuel and his 1,000 receiving yards. This feels like a grind it out game, with a lot of Elijah Mitchell.
Since there are 4 teams on bye and some of you might be looking for streamers - two that you might be considering but that I’d avoid are Matt Ryan vs. the Bucs and Teddy Bridgewater at the Chiefs. Both of those defenses have gotten much, much better.
RB
Rides:
Fantasy Managers Struck Gold with this 49er
Dalvin Cook is out with an injury again, and we all know what that means - it’s Alexander Mattison time! Mattison is THE elite handcuff in fantasy - he started 2 games earlier this year with Cook out, and he put up over 20 points (Half PPR) in both, and more importantly, he got pretty much all of the work, with 30+ touches in each game. It’s a great matchup with the Lions, who allow the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. He should get a ton of work in this one. This one isn’t complicated - Mattison is my RB Ride of the Week.
Elijah Mitchell is ranked just inside the top 10 this week - for me, that’s not high enough. The 6th round rookie is rolling in the “Shanahan system”, the team is rolling, and with Deebo Samuel out he should lose fewer red zone rushing opportunities. What was especially encouraging were his 5 catches on 6 targets last week - increased passing game usage, if it continues, makes him an RB1 and potential league winner down the stretch. And this week’s matchup is tasty - If you watched the Monday night game, you saw Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic both having their way against the Seahawks defense, which has been plenty generous to RBs (only the Jets have yielded more fantasy points to the position). This one also isn’t complicated.
OK, so far I’ve given you two very obvious (but not household) names for this week, and you didn’t come here for that. Moving further down the rankings, Antonio Gibson is ranked outside the top 10 this week and I like him to finish inside the top 10. He ran really well last week, and if J.D. McKissic misses this game he should see more passing work. The Raiders have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs, and have been especially vulnerable to running backs catching passes. This should be a big week for Gibson.
There is no player I’ve been wrong on more this year than Myles Gaskin. It’s not even close - and since I’ve got him rostered, it’s especially maddening. Let’s just say I’ve sat some points. Two of his best games have been against very tough run defenses (TB and CAR). He still has a low YPC and he lost work to Philip Lindsay last week. Still, he’s getting a lot of touches and with the Dolphins playing much better, he’s also getting more red zone chances - both of his TDs last week came on wildcat plays inside the 10 and if the Dolphins continue to use that look with him when they get close, it’s a huge plus. The Giants have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to RBs, and this should be a good game script for the Miami offense. Since I’m touting Gaskin as a Ride, feel free to bench him with confidence. That’s how this works, apparently.
Further down the rankings, here are some more RBs I like this week:
Jamaal Williams vs. the Vikings. With Swift out, he should see a ton of work in both the running and passing game. This one is a volume play, and a good one.
Sony Michel vs. the Jaguars - it’s unclear if Darrell Henderson will be able to suit up this week - if he is out then Michel is an obvious start against the Jaguars, but even if Henderson goes, I think Michel gets more of a backfield share than normal, and is a decent sleeper this week.
Boston Scott continues to benefit from injuries around him - but also, he’s a good back in what has very much become a run-first offense. Miles Sanders left last week’s game with yet another injury, and Scott stepped up. Sanders may be back this week. Either way, this week the Eagles play the Jets, who (and we say this every single week), have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs, by a city mile, a country mile, a suburbs mile and every other kind of mile. They stink against the run. Enough said. Scott is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
The Fades:
One of these weeks, Saquon Barkley is going to look like his old self. But it hasn’t happened this year in his comeback from a torn ACL in 2020, plus he’s dealt with a nagging ankle injury. He’s still thought of as an elite back but we just haven’t seen it - he’s averaging well below 50 rushing yards per game. With Mike Glennon likely under center the Dolphins should be able to handle him. They’ve gotten much better as the season has progressed and are now a top 10 defense against the run. You’re starting Barkley, and he should catch enough passes to make him serviceable, but he is my RB Fade of the Week.
Another big-name guy you’re starting this week and every week is Zeke Elliott. But temper your expectations. The combination of his balky knee and the matchup (the Saints allow the lowest YPC in the league and are #1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs) have me pretty nervous. Maybe he gets a goal line TD or even more than one and it bails him out. But I expect a lot of Tony Pollard and a lot of Dak passing in this one, and I’m fading him this week.
I don’t like either of the New England RBs against Buffalo. Damien Harris has been excellent for the last 2 months, but if you look inside the numbers, it’s mostly because of rushing TDs - a fickle stat as we all know. He’s got 7 of them in the last 7 games he’s played. Not only that, but he’s sharing the early-down workload with Rhamondre Stevenson on a pretty even basis, and neither one is getting many looks in the passing game. The Bills are a difficult matchup - outside of the Jonathan Taylor game they’ve been very stingy to RBs. I’m fading both Harris and Stevenson.
With 4 teams on bye, and so many injuries to RBs, a lot of you might need to dig deep. Here are a few lower-end RBs I’m avoiding this week, if I can help it - Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson against the Eagles, Alex Collins vs. the 49ers, Melvin Gordon at the Chiefs, and Devin Singletary against the Patriots.
WR
Rides:
Johnson will be Busy This Week
Do you know which team has allowed the most passing yards this season? It’s the Baltimore Ravens. I know - that surprised me too. Do you know the name of the only WR who’s been targeted at least 13 times in each of his last 3 games? It’s Diontae Johnson - who’s on pace for a whopping 160 targets this year. This one is simple, and Johnson is my WR Ride of the Week.
In the same game, give me Hollywood Brown, who’s ranked just outside the top 15 this week. He should be fully recovered now from the thigh bruise that caused him to miss Week 11. The vaunted Steelers defense has fallen apart of late, and Pittsburgh has allowed 40+ points in consecutive games. It’s now ranked in the bottom third in the league in total defense. And Brown has had plenty of past success against the Steelers. Ride him.
Michael Pittman, Jr. was on fire earlier this season but he’s been pretty quiet the last 3 weeks, so I’m a bit nervous about this. But I like the matchup against the Texans, and I think Pittman has a nice bounceback in this game - he’s a Ride.
There are a handful of WRs ranked in the lower teens and high 20s that I’m high on this week, for better finishes than that:
Jaylen Waddle is the WR 18 this week. Really? Do the “experts” know that he finished as the WR1 last week and that he’s the WR6 over the last 3 weeks (Half PPR)? Waddle’s been a Ride for me for a bunch of weeks, and it’s been a winning ticket. Keep riding Waddle as a “set it and forget it” player, and you can thank me later.
Hunter Renfrow (vs. the WFT, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to WRs) and Devonta Smith (vs. the Jets) are both ranked in the 20s. Both have great matchups and both have been excellent over the last 4-5 weeks. Ride them both.
I like Brandon Aiyuk to be busy against Seattle, with Deebo Samuel out.
I’ll go back to Brandin Cooks, against the Colts, who’ve allowed an NFL-worst 17 TDs to receivers this year, and the 6th most fantasy points.
And here are a couple of sleepers for you, all ranked in the 30s or lower this week: Van Jefferson against the Jaguars, Josh Reynolds vs. the Vikings, Russell Gage vs. the Bucs, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore at the Bears, and Devante Parker against the Giants (if he is activated off IR). Jefferson is my WR Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Elijah Moore has been a very hot commodity in fantasy for the last month - but as I (and others) warned last week, the return of Zach Wilson as the starter is a concern for Moore, and while the Jets won their game last week, Moore’s output suffered and was his worst in 4 games. This week, the Jets face the Eagles, who’ve allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs. I think Moore is going to see a lot of Darius Slay. He’s my WR Fade of the Week.
This is easy - Here’s a reprint from last week: “Maybe Jerry Jeudy is eventually going to be an elite WR - but right now he isn’t a reliable or consistent producer and neither is Courtland Sutton, whose production has suffered mightily since Jeudy came back. Sutton and Jeudy are both Fades for me.”
I don’t like the QB situation for the Giants this week, and I’ve been out on Kenny Golladay all season - no change this week. He’s a Fade.
Mike Williams caught that one long TD 2 weeks ago, but outside of that, the last month and a half has been entirely forgettable after his torrid start. I think the Bengals will try to take away the big play and keep everything in front of them - Williams is a Fade for me.
I’ll repeat what I said above - with 4 teams on bye and a lot of players injured, some of you might need to dig deep. Here are some more WRs I’d avoid this week, if I could: Marvin Jones, Jr. at the Rams (and Jalen Ramsey, in a revenge game), Jakobi Myers at the Bills, Cole Beasley vs. New England (they’ve had his number), OBJ vs. the Jags (he’s very banged up and I don’t trust his ability to start and finish this game), and Tyler Boyd against the Chargers.
TE
Rides:
MUUUUTH!
Pat Friermuth is ranked outside the top 10 this week, which can only be because he’s in the concussion protocol. It can’t be because of him, or the matchup. He’s the TE3 on a PPG basis over the last 5 weeks, with 5 TDs in that span. Eric Ebron is out, and the Ravens are a great matchup, having allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the position. Friermuth practiced in full on Wednesday, which is a great sign for his availability. At his weekly ranking, he is easily my TE Ride of the Week.
Dallas Goedert has been hard to trust. But I like him this week against a Jets defense that’s bottom 10 vs. the position.
Another TE that’s going up against a generous defense is Logan Thomas. He returned last week and while he only caught 3 balls, what would have been his 4th catch would have also been a TD, but it got reversed on review. And he played every snap, so clearly he’s OK. The Raiders have allowed 8 TDs to TEs this year, which is the 3rd most in the NFL and they’ve also allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Thomas is going to remind us all this week that when healthy, he’s a top 10 TE.
A few more mid-range TEs that I like this week: Tyler Higbee against the Jags, Foster Moreau against the WFT (assuming Waller is out), and Noah Fant at the Chiefs.
And if you’re desperate, here are 2 sleepers for you, ranked outside the top 20: Jack Doyle at Houston, and C.J. Uzomah vs. the Chargers, who’ve given up 10 TDs to TEs this year, and the second most fantasy points to the position. Uzomah is my TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
I want to believe in Kyle Pitts, and this is a game where the Falcons will need to throw. But with Calvin Ridley out, defenses aren’t having a lot of trouble defending Pitts. The rankers keep putting Pitts down as a borderline top 5 TE (including this week) - but over the last 5 weeks, he’s the TE 25 on a PPG basis. I think this is what the finance folks call a market inefficiency, right? Pitts is in a spot I’ve put him in multiple times: the TE Fade of the Week.
Dawson Knox has burned me before, so fading him is a risk, but I don’t like this matchup. New England has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to TEs. If you have Knox, you probably don’t have a better option, but this is a tough spot for him.
Another TE with a bad matchup is Cole Kmet, who has really been coming on of late. Arizona has only allowed 1 TD to a TE all year, and they’ve allowed the fewest points to the position. He’s a Fade for me.
That’s all I’ve got, folks. Sorry that the column was a little late in posting this week - too much life stuff going on! Check back with the Pigskin Papers next Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
