The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 11
Hurts: So Good
(Posted November 23, 2021)
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Hello readers. Well, it took 11 weeks, but I’m giving up on 2 things. No, no, not caffeine, alcohol, gambling or any other vices. First, I’m giving up on even pretending to know which NFL teams are the really good ones - and especially in the top-heavy AFC where pretty much every team in the conference has at least one really bad loss. And second, I’m giving up on thinking that as of Thursday, I know which players on my fantasy team will be available to put in my lineup that week. I’ve had it, on both counts. My rostered QBs are Lamar Jackson and Matt Ryan. Scrambling late on Saturday night (which is when my 14 team, deep bench league does it’s final round of blind bid waivers) to find an available QB to back up a suddenly 50/50 Lamar, and having to settle on Trevor Lawrence, was a new low. And fortunately, come Sunday morning I had a decent option to plug in for Elijah Mitchell. I actually managed to get a win this week, but it wasn’t without stress - and it feels like it’s been the same ordeal every week. I’m sure lots of you can identify. Basta! Dayenu! This is supposed to be fun.
WIthout further ado, and before I break something, let’s move on to the recap.
Waiver Wire, Week 12: Here’s the link to our Week 12 Waiver Wire column, which also posted today: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/the-pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-12
What We Learned - Week 11
Four Score for Ekeler
Here are my key week 11 fantasy takeaways (and some NFL takeaways), in no particular order:
Dak Spent the Day on his Back
Is there a great team out there? Or even a really good one? Yes, there are, and it’s a long season with ebbs and flows and I still believe that the best teams will reveal themselves down the stretch. But this is the “any given Sunday” season, and especially in the AFC which is loaded with good teams. The Titans - who if the season ended after Week 10 would have been the AFC’s #1 seed, have now lost to both the Jets and the Texans. Really, they have. They face the surging Patriots this week.
The AFC North and West divisions play each other this year. Between that and division games, a lot of potential AFC playoff teams are going to be playing against each other (and beating each other up) week after week, the rest of the way.
The Cardinals just played 3 games in a row without their 2 best and most important offensive players in Kyler Murray and Nuk Hopkins. They won 2 of those games, on the road and against division rivals. That leads me to believe that they’re a very good, resourceful, and resilient team. Hopefully, they get everyone back after the Week 12 bye and this offense will hum again for fantasy.
Last 3 Packers-Vikings games: GB 43 - MIN 34, MIN 28 - GB 22, MIN 34 - GB 31. They don’t play again this year until Week 17, which won’t count for most of you (it will count for me - my league plays the full season and then does playoffs alongside the NFL playoffs**), but if Rodgers is still in GB keep this in mind for next season - these games are fantasy goldmines. [**If you want to learn more about this, and why it’s so much better and more fun than the traditional format, see: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/three-of-the-dumbest-things-about-fantasy-football-and-how-to-fix-them-part-iii-1]
The Patriots defense has entered the conversation of “defense you don’t want your fantasy players to go up against.” They haven’t allowed a TD in their last 7 quarters. Fun fact: after their 35 point outburst the other night, the Pats DST has put up the highest single game DST score in each of the past 3 seasons. Hoodie strikes again.
The Chiefs defense has really improved. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in 4 straight, they’re generating a lot of pressure up front with Frank Clark and Chris Jones, and their secondary has tightened up. What was once a great matchup for fantasy is no longer. Just ask Dak Prescott. The Cowboys came into this one having scored at least 2 offensive TDs in every game this year, and didn’t have any at Arrowhead on Sunday.
More Chiefs - CEH looked good in his return, and he was the clear lead back. Good news for his owners.
Justin Jefferson is going to be one of the first 4 or 5 WRs off the board in fantasy drafts next year. And Ja’Marr Chase won’t be far behind him. They’re both special, and have both established their fantasy dominance remarkably fast. It’s mind-boggling to think that Joe Burrow had them both at his disposal in that magical 2019 LSU season. No wonder he threw 60 TDs.
Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith are also already very productive as rookies, alongside Chase - throw in what we’ve seen so far from Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, and even snippets from Rondale Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashod Bateman (and hopefully we’ll see it from Terrance Marshall at some point) and this is an outstanding rookie class of WRs that will be a major presence in fantasy for years to come.
Austin Ekeler flew under the Jonathan Taylor radar this week, but make no mistake - he’s a fantasy stud and has been great all season. He’s been every bit what many hoped he would be - 2019-2020 Alvin Kamara in a Chargers uniform. Watching him make tacklers miss is a treat.
Several AFC teams are surging, and are on the short list of “teams you don’t want to play right now”. The Patriots (winners of 5 in a row), Chiefs (4 in a row) and Colts (3 in a row) are all on the rise. Oh, and the Dolphins have won 3 in a row, which doesn’t matter much other than to the Eagles, who own Miami’s first round draft pick next April.
5 offenses that are a complete mess right now: The Falcons, Giants, Bears, Seahawks and Jaguars. You’re obviously starting some players from these teams, but temper expectations on all of them unless and until these teams figure it out and start scoring touchdowns. The Browns, Texans and Lions aren’t exactly lighting it up either.
Myles Gaskin on the season: 18 fantasy ppg in odd weeks and 5.3 in even weeks. Do with this information what you want. As a Gaskin owner, I’m ignoring it.
Is Marquez Callaway startable? He has a TD in 3 straight, but only 6 catches total in those 3 games. It’s hard to trust any player with such low volume - which makes all of the Saints receivers tough to pencil into a lineup.
The only players with more runs for first downs and TDs this season than Jalen Hurts (45) are Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. We said before the season that Hurts had the best chance to be this year’s big breakout QB, like Lamar in 2019 and Josh Allen in 2020. It’s happening, and the Eagles are surging. Hurts is going to be on a lot of league winners this year.
Is Jonathan Taylor making a case to be NFL MVP? If they didn’t give it to Derrick Henry last year then they might never give it to a running back again. Regardless, Taylor is a monster and will be a league-winner for many. He’s also going to be firmly in the conversation for the top pick in fantasy next year. And speaking of….
5 Endzone Visits for Taylor
GOAT of the Week: JONATHAN TAYLOR. What a performance, against what had been the #1 fantasy defense against running backs. See the fun facts below for all sorts of nuggets about Taylor and his big day. He ended up with 50.4 fantasy points in standard scoring, and it was just the 8th 50 point game in that scoring format since 1970.
Goat of the week: Ryan Tannehill. OK, it was pouring, and A.J. Brown got hurt. But it was also the Texans, and they were at home. Tannehill was on everyone’s START list (including mine) and he put up a stinker this week.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Yes JJ, We Saw!
Justin Jefferson now has 11 100 yard receiving games in his first 2 seasons - he trails only OBJ who had 15. Oh, and on Sunday, JJ had 100 yards by the end of the first quarter.
It took Justin Herbert just 25 games to get to 7,000 passing yards, which ties Kurt Warner for the second fastest ever to that total (Patrick Mahomes was fastest).
Herbert on Sunday night became the only QB to throw for 350 yards and run for 90 yards in a game.
Jonathan Taylor is the first player since Adrian Peterson (2007) to have 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs in each of his first 2 seasons.
Taylor now has 8 straight games with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and at least 1 rushing TD - tying Ladanian Tomlinson for the longest such in-season streak since 1950.
The Dolphins passed on BOTH Herbert and Taylor in the 2020 NFL draft (on Taylor, multiple times)
The Ravens have won 13 straight games against NFC opponents.
The Jets have not led at halftime in any of their games this season.
The Giants have not scored in the final 2 minutes of the first half in any game this season.
The last two facts help explain why it’s no fun being a NY city area football fan right now.
Mac Jones has won the first 5 road starts of his career, joining Dak Prescott and Big Ben in accomplishing the same feat as rookies.
Jones is the first rookie ever to have back to back games with a completion percentage of 80% or higher (minimum 15 attempts)
The Bills have allowed 9 rushing TDs on the season. 7 of those were scored by Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, in 2 games.
After returning from injury last week, the first 18 possessions for Russell Wilson and the Seeahawks, across almost 7 quarters, produced 0 touchdowns.
The 49ers opened their game with the Jaguars with a 20 play drive that consumed more than 13 minutes of the first quarter, and resulted in 3 points.
Before last night, Tom Brady was 0-11 ATS in his last 11 prime time games.
Brady has never lost more than 2 consecutive starts in his entire career.
The Chiefs on Sunday snapped an 0-9 streak ATS, at home.
On Thursday night, the Falcons became the first team since the 2000 Ryan Leaf Chargers to have 3 different QBs throw an INT in a game.
In their last 2 games, the Falcons have been outscored 68-3.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 12 Fantasy Preview!
DH
***This column (the weekly fantasy recap) appears each Tuesday, as does the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly fantasy preview each Thursday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
