Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 12
Fantasy Managers are Thankful that Cam is Back
(Posted November 24, 2021, Updated for injuries November 27, 2021)
***Follow the blog on social media:Twitter: @PigskinPapers, Insta: thepigskinpapers***
Happy Thanksgiving to all the Pigskin Papers readers out there. I’m thankful that you’ve taken the time to read my blog. Many of you have given me feedback and encouragement as I’ve jumped into this, and I’m thankful for that also.
It’s a short and busy week, with 3 games on Thursday, and I wanted to get this column out a little early this week. We’ll get back to the normal Thursday posting next week.
Fantasy football has unfortunately turned into a weekly exercise in dread, which kind of sucks. Last week, I had no reason to believe on Wednesday that either Lamar Jackson or Elijah Mitchell was in any real danger of not playing on Sunday. Four days later, Trevor Lawrence was in my lineup (vomit sound). Hopefully, this week will have fewer surprises than last week, in terms of player availability, but I’m not hopeful given the pattern of the last month or so. And with 3 games on Thursday a lot of you might have to make tough start/sit decisions based on incomplete information. Hopefully I can help you out.
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT
Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 12:
Top 5:
DAL (29) vs. LV
TB (27.5) @ IND
BUF (26) @ NO
SF (25.5) vs. MIN
NE (25.5) vs. TEN
Bottom 5:
TEN (19) @ NE
DET (19) vs. CHI
NO (20) vs. BUF
PIT (20) @ CIN
MIA (20.5) vs. CAR
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT:
The Bills and Packers both got shredded last week, but they’re still tough defenses. New England is now firmly in the conversation of “defense you most want to avoid in fantasy”, and the Chiefs and Bucs have both tightened up a lot after being destroyed earlier in the season and are no longer easy matchups, by any stretch. You’re always going to play your studs, but there are definitely some matchups in the running and passing game to avoid (or exploit) if you can, and we’ll talk about that as we go through the Rides and Fades.
*****SATURDAY INJURY UPDATE*****
Here is the latest news regarding player availability for the Sunday and Monday games, as of noon on Saturday:
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are all good to go this week.
RB:
OUT: Jordan Howard, Jeremy McNichols, Ja’Mychal Hasty, Michael Carter
QUESTIONABLE, but expected to play: Saquon, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, Kareem Hunt
QUESTIONABLE: Aaron Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Cordarelle Patterson
WR AND TE:
OUT: Sterling Shepard, A.J. Brown, Antonio Brown, Eric Ebron
IN: Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry
DOUBTFUL: Kadarius Toney, Kyle Rudolph, Corey Davis
QUESTIONABLE, but expected to play: Hollywood Brown, Jonnu Smith, John Ross
QUESTIONABLE: Logan Thomas, DPJ, Allen Lazard
*****
BYES Week 12: CHIEFS, CARDINALS
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades did very well last week - a nice bounceback from Week 10 and we had a lot of correct calls (and a few clunkers, most notably Ryan Tannehill). Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see where we hit and missed : https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-11.
Here we go - the Week 12 Rides and Fades:
QB
Don’t Sleep on Jimmy G
Rides:
All of the top 8 fantasy QBs for this week (in no particular order, Allen, Brady, Hurts, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, Rodgers, and Stafford) are easy calls - if you’ve got one of them, you’re playing him. So we’ll focus on some of the lower ranked QBs.
Joe Burrow has faltered a bit of late, but I like him at home this week against a very banged up Steelers defense that just gave up 350 yards and 3 TDs (plus 90 rushing yards) to Justin Herbert. He’s my QB Start of the Week.
I also like Cam Newton at the Dolphins. I’m still not sold on his passing but his rushing floor is immense and despite what they did to Lamar Jackson 2 weeks ago, the Dolphins are still a suspect defense. They’ve yielded the 4th most fantasy points to QBs on the season (and 20 passing TDs).
Jimmy Garappolo has very quietly been the #8 fantasy QB on a points per game basis over his last 4 starts, at a clip of just under 20 PPG. Kittle is back, Aiyuk is out of the doghouse, and suddenly this offense is potent. He’s ranked as the QB 18 this week, which makes no sense to me. At home against the Vikings, who’ve allowed the 5th most fantasy points to QBs, he’s my QB Sleeper of the Week. I actually debated making him the start of the week.
A few more lower-ranked QBs that I like as sleepers this week, if you’re in need: Tyrod Taylor against the Jets (a bottom 10 pass defense), Tyler Heinicke against the reeling Seahawks, Mac Jones against the Titans (who’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs and the 2nd most to WRs), and if you’re really in need, Andy Dalton at the Lions who are, well, the Lions. I can’t believe I just recommended the red rifle.
Fades:
There is nothing to like about Ryan Tannehill this week (so watch, he’ll put up a monster game) - he’s coming off an awful game, he’s on the road facing a nasty defense that hasn’t allowed a TD in 7 quarters and has given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to QBs, and he might be without A.J. Brown, to go along with Julio Jones and of course Derrick Henry. He’s an easy call as the QB Fade of the Week.
Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson, and maybe this is the week that he starts to look like himself. But this offense has been beyond atrocious since he returned. They can’t run the ball, they can’t convert third downs, they’ve run by far the fewest plays in the NFL this season, and defenses are taking away D.K. Metcalf. He’s the QB 25 the last 2 weeks. Yes, the WFT has been an awful pass defense this year, and they’ve given up the most fantasy points to QBs on the season so this seems a bit crazy, but they did bottle up Brady 2 weeks ago and until I see it from Russ I’m fading him.
Derek Carr just hasn’t been the same since the loss of Henry Ruggs. Carr was on fire early in the season but he’s just the QB 19 since Week 7. Dallas got rolled last week but they actually did a good job against Patrick Mahomes. They can get after the passer and they create turnovers. Carr is ranked inside the top 15 this week and I don’t see it - at all. He’s a Fade.
Tua vs. the Panthers is a matchup I’d try to avoid if I could.
Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan have sunk to the point that I shouldn’t need to list them as Fades - nobody should even consider starting them until further notice.
RB
The Aptly Named D. Swift
Rides:
David Montgomery has underwhelmed since returning from injury. But I think tomorrow is the spot his fantasy owners have been waiting for. The Lions have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs, and have allowed 7 receiving TDs by RBs. Look for Montgomery to find the end zone at least once on Thanksgiving. He’s ranked outside the top 10, and at that number he’s my RB Ride of the Week.
In the same game, I’m riding D’Andre Swift, who has been a lone bright spot for the Lions. He’s the RB 6 over the last 5 weeks in Half PPR (and RB7 on the season), and is getting a ton of work. Jared Goff’s return should help the entire offense - not that it will make them good - but last week’s QB play was a joke, even for the Lions. If the Lions are going to get their first win of the year tomorrow (and this might be their best chance at a win all year), Swift will need to be heavily involved.
A couple more RBs I like who are ranked in the teens this week: D.J. Henderson at the Packers, James Robinson vs. the Falcons, Antonio Gibson against the Seahawks, and Miles Sanders at the Giants.
Moving down the rankings into the 20s, I think both Bronco RBs are flex-worthy against the Chargers, who’ve struggled against the run all year and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the position. Of the 2, I like Gordon slightly better, against his old team.
I also like both Elijah Mitchell (assuming he plays) against the Vikings, and Ty Johnson at the Texans. Johnson is ranked just outside the top 30 and he should lead the backfield with Michael Carter out. He’s my RB Sleeper of the Week. Another sleeper named Johnson who I like in the same game is David Johnson - not because of anything particularly worthy about him (no offense, David), but because the Jets (who have allowed by far the most fantasy points to the position) can make ANY RB look good. Just ask Myles Gaskin.
If you’re trying to figure out what to do with the New England RBs, join the club. I’ve got both of the early down backs rostered in a deep league (14 teams). This could change but for now it looks like an even split of touches between them, with Bolden still getting the passing down work which is annoying. I think either one is fine as a flex - the problem is what to do if you have both and have to choose between them. If you really don’t have a better option this week, I think you can consider starting both. But this isn’t a great situation for fantasy right now.
Fades:
I’m going to take a slightly different approach this week, because I want to highlight a few teams with RB committees that should be completely avoided this week if you can help it - partly because of the split of the work and also because of the matchups:
Buffalo RBs - It sounds like Zac Moss might miss this one, so the committee is smaller. Either way, even though the Eagles ran on them, I’m still buying the Saints as a very tough run defense. They’ve allowed the second fewest fantasy points to RBs, and I think that the most likely Bills player to get a rushing TD is Josh Allen.
Baltimore RBs - Cleveland has a decent defense. And outside of the Patriots game they haven’t been a particularly good matchup for RBs. If you start Freeman or Murray you’re basically hoping for a score. I’d look elsewhere.
Las Vegas RBs - they’re splitting the work more than you’d like. In the 3 games since the Raiders’ bye, neither Josh Jacobs nor Kenyan Drake is among the top 20 fantasy point scorers among all RBs. I expect the Raiders to be trailing and I don’t like either RB to excel in this game.
Tennessee RBs - Even without AP, it’s a committee approach, in a bad matchup.
Leonard Fournette has been pretty reliable all year. And productive - he’s the RB13 on the season in Half PPR. This week he’s ranked in the top 15 but on the road against the resurgent Colts, who’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs and only 3 rushing TDs to RBs all year, I’m pretty wary. Throw in that Ronald Jones made a surprise reappearance last week, and Gio Bernard’s usage on obvious passing downs, and I’ll risk it and make Fournette my RB Fade of the Week.
I’m back to a Fade grade on Myles Gaskin, and not because it’s an even numbered week, or because they just claimed Philip Lindsay off of waivers. And I wasn’t on him last week because it was an odd numbered week. It’s about the matchups. I’d start my mother at RB against the Jets. But against the Panthers, who’ve allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to RBs, I’m out. (OK, not mom - but any starting NFL running back is an auto-start vs. the NYJ).
I can’t get behind Alex Collins. This offense is a mess, and hasn’t been able to run the ball competently in at least a month.
WR
More Moore, Please
Rides:
D.J. Moore vanished off the face of the earth for about 5 or 6 weeks, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold’s general suckiness. But with Cam’s return and in a good matchup he was a Ride for me last week and he delivered. The return of Cam is a plus for him and against a Dolphins defense that’s been very generous to WRs (yielding the 3rd most fantasy points, and 14 TDs), he’s my WR Ride of the Week. He’s ranked outside the top 15 this week which seems low to me.
I’m back on Michael Pittman, Jr. this week. The Colts didn’t need much from their passing game in last week’s blowout of the Bills, but against the Bucs this week they probably will. You can throw out a lot of the stats for the Bucs D, because of how much they’ve improved. They’re no longer a choice matchup for passing games. Still, Pittman is ranked in the teens this week and I like his chances for a top 10 outing.
Brandin Cooks was a major disappointment last week. Maybe it was the weather - it was just a really ugly, rainy, and miserable game with little passing success for either side. This week, don’t be scared to fire him up against the Jets, who’ve allowed 199 points in their last 4 games, and are a bottom-third defense against WRs.
I’m down on the Seahawks this week but I’ve got Tyler Lockett as a Ride. He went over 100 yards last week and when Russ is in trouble, Lockett is his guy. Look for him to be peppered with targets. The WFT are bottom 5 against WRs and I feel confident that Lockett will have a highly productive game.
A few more WRs I think are strong plays this week, all ranked between 18-30: Michael Gallup against Las Vegas, Elijah Moore at the Texans, Darnell Mooney against the Lions and Brandon Aiyuk against the Vikings. Aiyuk is the lowest ranked of these and he’s my WR Sleeper of the Week.
Some deeper sleepers: Kendrick Bourne vs. the Titans, Kadarius Toney vs. the Eagles, Cedric Wilson v. the Raiders and Cordarelle Patterson at the Jaguars.
Fades:
A.J. Brown has had an up and down year, but he’s got big name recognition and is still being ranked very high, every week. For this week, he’s pretty banged up, and the Patriots have been very tough on WRs all year and especially of late - plus with few options on that offense, he’s the guy they’ll try to take away - a blueprint they used last week to shut down Kyle Pitts. The Patriots are 6th against the pass and allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to WRs. You get the idea - Brown is my WR Fade of the Week and I’d even consider looking elsewhere if you’ve got decent options.
Maybe Jerry Jeudy is eventually going to be an elite WR - but right now he isn’t a reliable or consistent producer and neither is Courtland Sutton, whose production has suffered mightily since Jeudy came back. The Chargers have the league’s 5th ranked pass defense and they trail only Buffalo in allowing the fewest points, and TDs, to WRs. Sutton and Jeudy are both Fades for me.
I’d wait on OBJ. The Rams offense is complex and it sounds like he’s not fully ready for an every-down role. At Green Bay, against a pretty good pass defense, I’d stay away.
So far the Kenny Golladay signing has been a pretty big disaster. Watching him dog it on a screen instead of blocking his man was hard to take. He’s a Fade for me, again - he could see a lot of Darius Slay and I think the Giants will spread it around.
Tyler Boyd hasn’t gotten the target share in the Cincinnati passing game that many expected. It was good to see him get 8 targets last week, but it’s hard to count on that, and against the Steelers, I’d look elsewhere.
Jarvis Landry is hard to trust right now, between his balky knee and Baker Mayfield’s balky everything. I’d be cautious using him.
Two more WRs to avoid this week, in the Thanksgiving day late game between the Bills and Saints: Cole Beasley and Marquez Callaway.
TE
GRONK
Rides:
Gronk is back! But the rankers don’t seem to think so as he’s the TE 9 this week. To me, he’s a top 5 option when healthy. The Colts have a pretty strong defense but one place they’ve struggled is against TEs, allowing 6 TDs and the 6th most points to the position. I like Gronk for at least 1 score and a top 5 finish at his position and he is my TE Ride of the Week.
Noah Fant has been up and down this year, but I like him this week. The Chargers haven’t defended Tight Ends well - they’re tied with the Eagles for allowing the most TDs to the position (9), including 2 to the Steelers last week.
Pat Friermuth has scored 4 TDs in his last 4 games, and now Eric Ebron is out again. He’s a big, sure-handed red zone target and that’s where Big Ben is looking for him. He’s ranked outside the top 10, and for me he’s a top 10 TE for the rest of the season, unless we see Mason Rudolph again. Ride!
Dallas is going to be short-handed at WR, and that favors extra looks for Dalton Schultz. The Raiders have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to TEs - don’t be surprised if you look up from gnawing on a big turkey leg and see Schultz in the end zone, spiking the football. Ride!
Remember what I said about the Eagles above? They’ve allowed 9 TDs, and the most fantasy points, to TEs. They’ve shaken up their LB corps, but it hasn’t helped much. Evan Engram is hard to trust, but with the change at OC I think the Giants will shake things up and hopefully will do a better job of scheming and finding the open man. Engram is ranked in the low teens and is my TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Dawson Knox has cooled off considerably since he came back. The Saints have only allowed 1 TD to a tight end all year. Knox is ranked inside the top 10 this week and is my TE Fade of the Week.
Justin Herbert likes to throw to his tight ends, so the matchup with Denver is interesting as they’ve allowed zero TDs to the position all year, and have yielded the fewest fantasy points to TEs. Jared Cook and Donald Parham are splitting the work, and that, plus the matchup, makes them both Fades for me.
The 49ers have allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends. Tyler Conklin has been inconsistent so if you’re starting him you’re just hoping for a TD. I’d fade him in this matchup, if you have another decent option.
C.J. Uzomah is pretty hit and miss. The Steelers defend tight ends pretty well and have only allowed 2 TDs to the position. I’ll fade C.J.
OK, time to get ready for a morning 5K Turkey Trot, Alice’s Restaurant on the radio at noon, and then some turkey, stuffing, string beans, cranberry sauce, pumpkin pie, relatives, and of course, football! Somehow, I don’t have any players going tomorrow, so I can mainly focus on eating, and then after that, eating more. Enjoy the holiday, safe travels, and good luck in your matchups. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
