The Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 10
CMC and the Panthers are Back
(Posted November 16, 2021)
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This NFL season just keeps getting nuttier. In week 9, 4 teams with losing records beat teams that were in first place. Just to prove that it wasn’t a fluke, in Week 10 it happened again: The Dolphins, WFT, Vikings, and Panthers all beat teams that were in first place (or tied for the division lead). But that’s not all - the 49ers (losing record) beat the 7-2 Rams, and the winless, toothless and hapless Lions tied the 5-3, Ben-less Steelers. Up is down, down is up, cats are chasing dogs, or as one legendary rock band famously told us, the sky was yellow and the sun was blue. Or is that really the case? Maybe there just aren’t any great teams in the NFL right now, and we’ve got some measure of parity.
Or not. There were 4 huge blowouts this week. Three teams who spent the last week hearing about how awful their offense performed last week - Dallas, Buffalo and Kansas City - all completely annihilated their opponents, and scored in the 40s. For KC, they’ve been hearing it for a month. The big dogs ate. And the 4th blowout? New England, who is suddenly 6-4 and firmly in the AFC mix. I’m sure everyone around the country is thrilled with that development.
Week 10 was also another week of big, surprising headlines. Cam is back on the Panthers! OBJ signs with the Rams! And a few hours after announcing their signing of OBJ, the Rams announced that Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice and is done for the year. Throw in all the player news that came late in the week - Kamara, Chubb, Kyler, Nuk Hopkins, Damien Harris, Julio Jones and others, all OUT - and fantasy managers were once again sent scrambling like a bunch of Air Force jets. Hopefully Week 11 will be a little less nuts.
On to the recap!
Waiver Wire, Week 11: Here is a link to our Week 11 Waiver Wire column, which also posted today: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/the-pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-11
What We Learned - Week 10
Here are my key week 10 takeaways, in no particular order:
Deeeeeebo!
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense continue to struggle mightily in the first half of games, and this time, they couldn’t turn it around in the second half. They can’t keep counting on making big comebacks, and need to get this fixed. They need a consistent run game for this offense to work properly. Maybe the return of Lat Murray will help.
Keep an eye on the Panthers. The last NFC playoff spot (at least) is going to be up for grabs. CMC reminded everyone this week of why he is the presumptive #1 pick in fantasy every year, and with him healthy and Cam under center, this could be a pretty explosive and fantasy-friendly offense the rest of the way.
Deebo is really good, and fun to watch (unless you’re going up against him) - he’s super dangerous in the open field, and they scheme it up to maximize production from his unique skill set. With Kittle back, Jimmy G has weapons to deploy - so unless and until the 49ers get to a point where they’re out of it and start putting Trey Lance into games, Jimmy G is not a bad streaming option. Yes, the 49ers are very run heavy, but that run game opens up play action, and Deebo and Jimmy G are both part of that running attack.
Cooper Kupp can’t be covered. Even in a bad game for Stafford and the entire Rams offense, he produced massive volume. We’ll allow him that one bad drop.
The Jets defense is bad against the run. And I mean, historically bad. Like steaming dog-doo bad. Through 9 games, they’ve allowed opposing RBs to score 17 rushing TDs, and amass over 1,700 total yards. Play your RBs against them - even backup RBs can be flex-worthy. This week, their 32nd ranked run defense faces off against Miami’s 32nd ranked rushing offense. Get the popcorn ready.
Speaking of running the football, what’s gotten into the Eagles? For weeks, the entire NFL blogosphere yelled at them to run the damn football, and it appears they’ve listened (oddly enough, as soon as their top RB went down). Over the last 4 games they’ve piled up 757 rushing yards - the most in the NFL over that span. Scott and Howard are both playable right now, and their offense is humming. So much for #FlyEaglesFly. Ground and pound!
I’ve been saying for a few weeks that very few defensive matchups are scary in fantasy this year, outside of the Bills. Well, the Packers are making their case. In the last 3 weeks they’ve faced Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson - and they’ve given up only 28 points combined in those 3 contests. Be wary of the Green Bay matchup.
Is everything Ok in Tampa? That was a stinker from Brady & Co., coming off the bye. TB had 2 picks in his first 6 throws. Every time a prolific offense is pronounced dead, they seem to come storming back to remind us that they’re just fine (like KC, Buffalo, and Dallas did this week, loudly). I expect the same from the Bucs, although they do need to get at least one of AB and Gronk back for this entire offense to hum.
The Titans are using a full 3-headed committee approach at RB, making any of the 3 of them hard to start in fantasy.
In a similar vein, the Saints are spreading it around - none of their WRs has emerged as a consistent producer and so none are anything better than a flex. It’s a guessing game as to which ones will score, or have decent catch and yardage totals, each week.
I’m fine, thanks. And you?
GOAT of the Week: PATRICK MAHOMES. The man was analyzed, poked, prodded and dissected by everyone for several weeks. The league had figured out how to defend the Chiefs. He was forcing it and making horrible mistakes. The Chiefs had lost their edge and were no longer an elite AFC team. Yes, we’ve seen things from the Chiefs this year that are concerning, and it was just one game. But Mahomes is still Mahomes, he’s still got elite weapons in Kelce and Hill, and he engineered a complete dismantling of the Raiders on Sunday night. Patrick, have a cold one on the Pigskin Papers.
An afternoon to forget for Russ
Goat of the week: Russell Wilson. He narrowly edges out Matt Ryan, and they had similarly awful numbers. I am a big Russ fan, and I admire how hard he worked to get back onto the field as quickly as he could. But maybe he came back a week or two too soon, especially given the cold weather and the matchup against a tough defense in a tough building. Better days are ahead for Russ and his receivers.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Long, long time coming for Jakobi
I’m not piling on Russ, I swear. I’m a big fan. But on Sunday he was shut out for the first time in his career.
A similar stat - the 10 points scored by the Ravens on Thursday night was their lowest score in any game started by Lamar Jackson.
Patrick Mahomes had his 3rd career game with 400 yards and 5 TD passes - the only other QBs who have also done that 3 times are Dan Marino, Kurt Warner and Joe Montana.
Mahomes just turned 26 in September.
In the span that Mahomes had those 3 games (start of 2018 season to the present), there have been 4 such games from the rest of the QBs in the NFL, combined.
The Lions-Steelers 16-16 tie was a special kind of terrible - a game neither team deserved to win. Consider:
The final 13 possessions in the game produced 0 points.
The Lions had 17 first downs for the entire game, on a total of 15 possessions.
Jared Goff had 11 passing yards at halftime.
The 2 QBs attempted 75 passes, which produced just 356 passing yards, or under 5 yards per passing attempt.
I could go on - but you get the idea. If we knew this game was coming, we could have had a great drinking game where incompletions were gulps and punts were full chugs. Oh wait - we DID know this game was coming as soon as we saw “Mason Rudolph vs. Jared Goff”
11 of the 16 teams in the AFC have 5 or 6 wins, including every team in both the AFC’s North and West divisions.
The Browns last win in Foxborough was in 1992. Their Head Coach? Bill Belichick. Their DC? Nick Saban.
Mike Gesicki had 0 catches on 7 targets - it’s the first time a TE had 0 catches on that many targets since the NFL began tracking targets as a stat, in 1992.
Points allowed by the Jets in their last 4 games: 54-31-45-45. The 175 total points allowed in a 4 game stretch is the second most in the Super Bowl era. I’m excited for their 20 year rebuild to be over sometime soon.
The Cowboys led 36-3 at the half. The last time they had a lead that big at halftime was in 1971. They won the Super Bowl that season.
On Monday night, the 49ers won a game in their home stadium for the first time in over a year.
The Packers are an NFL best 9-1 ATS.
Road teams are slightly over .500 for the season.
2 different Jets QBs have thrown 4 INTs in a game this year.
Jakobi Meyers scored the first TD of his career, in his 39th game. He had the most receptions and yards before scoring his first TD of any player in NFL history.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 11 Fantasy Preview!
DH
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