Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 11
Buffalo’s D: Avoid It Like the Plague
(Posted November 18, 2021, updated for latest injury news November 20, 2021 - see “INJURY WATCH” below)
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Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 11 Fantasy Preview. This hasn’t been the easiest year to manage a fantasy team, and especially the last few weeks. I don’t know about you but it’s gotten to where I’m genuinely scared to check my newsfeed. OBJ. Nick Chubb. Robert Woods. Alvin Kamara. Damien Harris. Big Ben. Last week provided an onslaught of late-breaking news that threw lots of fantasy managers into scramble mode - and not for the first time this season. Unfortunately, I think that’s going to be the norm for the rest of the season - Thanksgiving travel isn’t going to help things on the COVID front. So it’s more important than ever to pay attention, work the waiver wire, have a decent bench, and make good lineup decisions. I’ll try to help you out - for free! Let’s hope that this week is a little more sane and predictable.
Before we turn to the Rides and Fades, here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 11:
Top 5:
TB (31) vs. NYG
KC (30) vs. DAL
BUF (29) vs. IND
NE (28) @ ATL
TEN (28) vs. HOU
Bottom 5:
HOU (17) @ TEN
DET (17) @ CLE
CHI (20) vs. BAL
NYG (20) @ TB
JAC (20) vs. SF
WFT (20) @ CAR
ATL (20) vs. NE
I said last week that the Bills defense is the only really scary matchup for fantasy - and they’re definitely worth avoiding where possible. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs, RBs and WRs. That’s defensive dominance across the board. One other defense worth mentioning is the Packers, who in the last 3 weeks faced a still-healthy Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson, and allowed a grand total of just 28 points across those 3 games. Impressive. They aren’t as strong against the run, but be leery of starting passing game assets against them, where you have other decent options.
*****Injury Watch*****:
Here is the latest injury and other important player news as of noon, EST, on Saturday, and some of our thoughts on these situations:
QB:
IN: Big Ben, Baker Mayfield, Tua, ALSO ANNOUNCED: Cam Newton starting for CAR, Joe Flacco starting for NYJ
OUT: Jared Goff
Questionable: Taysom Hill (not starting regardless)
GTD: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray (and note, backup Colt McCoy is also questionable - be careful starting pieces of this offense, including PK Matt Prater, other than James Conner)
RB:
IN: Nick Chubb, Alex Collins
OUT: Alvin Kamara (Mark Ingram is a solid play), Aaron Jones (A.J. Dillon is a top-10 play), Chris Carson (out for season), Jeremy McNichols
DOUBTFUL: Elijah Mitchell (Jeff Wilson is a nice play)
LIKELY TO PLAY: James Robinson, Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders
QUESTIONABLE: CEH, Saquon Barkley, Devontae Booker
PASS CATCHERS:
IN: Dallas Goedart, Chase Claypool
OUT: Amari Cooper (also out next week), Nuk Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Ricky Seals-Jones
DOUBTFUL: Allen Robinson, Allen Lazard
LIKELY TO PLAY: Gronk
QUESTIONABLE: Antonio Brown, Curtis Samual, DP-Jones
*******
BYES Week 11: Rams, Broncos
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor or Tyreek Hill. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades were a little shaky last week. Hey, it happens. Yes, there were quite a few good calls but there were too many high-conviction misses. Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see it all: the good, the bad, and yeah, I’ll admit it, the ugly: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-preview-week-10
But that was last week. We’ve got games and contests to win this week. Here we go - the Week 11 Rides and Fades:
QB:
Riding with Ryan
Rides:
Ryan Tannehill has been coming on of late for the surging Titans, who’ve won 6 straight since that inexplicable loss to the Jets, and this week they’ve got a great chance to make it 7 in a row against the lowly Texans. He’s scored more than 18 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4, and with Derrick Henry out, there are more opportunities for him to get fantasy points when the team gets inside the 10. The Texans rank in the bottom third of the league in allowing fantasy points to QBs, and have yielded 16 TD passes to QBs plus 4 rushing TDs. Tannehill has 12 rushing TDs since the start of last season. Only Kyler Murray (14) and Cam Newton (13) have more in that span. The Titans and Tannehill are rolling. At his ranking of QB12, he is my QB Ride of the Week.
I’d normally be a bit leery of firing up a QB against the Steelers, but their defense could be without some or all of three key pieces: T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden. The Chargers have been struggling but I think they get back on track this week, at “home” (yup, there will be more Steelers fans at this game than Chargers fans - can we get this team to some NFL-needy city?). I’m riding Justin Herbert this week.
The Bengals visit the Raiders this week and I like Joe Burrow to bounce back in this one. Burrow is coming off a bad game before the bye, and I think he can right the ship against a Raiders defense that just got torched for 400 yards and 5 TDs by Patrick Mahomes. I think he’s a good bet (your money, not mine) to finish inside the top 10 this week.
Tua is the 17th ranked QB this week. I know his injured finger still isn’t 100%, but he looked good coming off the bench against the Ravens, and Miami is getting healthier, and playing better on both sides of the ball. Most importantly, this week he faces the Jets. How bad is the NYJ defense? Real bad. They’ve allowed these point totals in their last 4 games: 31-54-45-45. I actually needed a calculator to figure out that this totals 175 points in the last 4 games. Yes, teams mostly pound the Jets on the ground, but Miami has the worst rushing offense in the league and I think Tua will get it done through the air and with his legs. He is my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Jimmy G has quietly been getting it done the last few weeks. I like him to keep it going at the Jaguars. The 49ers run it a ton so don’t expect elite production, but I think he can outperform his ranking of QB20. I like him as another sleeper this week, especially in DFS.
I’ve been fading the rookie QBs all year, but I think 2 of them qualify as decent sleepers this week - Mac Jones and Justin Fields. Jones is coming off his best game as a pro and gets a bad Falcons pass defense that’s allowing the second most fantasy points to QBs, and has given up 19 TD passes on the year. I still don’t trust Fields, but if you’re stuck and need to swing for the fences, he’s been playing better, and is finally running like we all knew he can. That rushing floor makes him intriguing, they’re at home, and the Ravens defense is up and down.
One last sleeper I like this week is Cam Newton. Yes, the WFT just held its own (and then some) against Tom Brady. But they lost Chase Young for the season and even after last week’s impressive showing they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to QBs, including 22 passing TDs. Throw in Newton’s high rushing floor and he’s a very appealing streamer this week - but wait for clarification that he is in fact starting.
Fades:
The Vikings and Packers have played some high scoring games in recent years, and especially last year, but I’m staying away from Kirk Cousins this week. See what I wrote above about the ascending Green Bay defense, and how they’ve stifled 3 elite QBs in their last 3 games. I think they’ll force some bad decisions from Kirk. He is my QB Fade of the Week.
Russell Wilson is coming off the worst game of his career, and he’ll be back at home, so I’m hesitant to bet against him in an obvious comeback spot for a great player. But the Cardinals are the 5th ranked pass defense and I think Russ still has some rust to shake off and might not be 100%. I’m not confident in him - yet. He’s ranked just outside the top 10 this week and I like some lower ranked options better than him - that makes him a Fade.
The QB matchup I definitely want to avoid is Buffalo. Carson Wentz has been a pleasant surprise this season - he’s been a borderline QB1 most of the year, and he’s been a successful call for me as a Ride multiple times. And maybe he will be the one to crack the code against the Bills but I’m not banking on it. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs, and there’s a big dropoff to New England at #2. They’ve only allowed 6 TD passes all year. You get the point. They’re a nasty, nasty matchup.
You saw what I just wrote about New England, right? That’s a tough pass defense, and one that forces turnovers. With no Calvin Ridley and maybe no Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Ryan is an easy Fade.
The Panthers are also very stingy against the pass - it’s actually them, and not Buffalo, that’s allowed the fewest passing yards per game. Tyler Heinicke is a very easy Fade too.
RB
Neither Rain, nor Snow, nor the Vikings are stopping Dillon
AJ Dillon gets his first start with Aaron Jones sidelined, and I expect him to make the most of it. Dillon is a handful - a bruiser who gets better as the defense wears down from trying to tackle him, and he’s a better receiving weapon than you’d think. We saw last week what he can do in a featured role, and he’ll dominate touches this week. The Vikings rank in the bottom third of the league in allowing fantasy points to RBs, and that bodes well for Dillon. He’s ranked as the RB 10 this week - I like him as a top 5 guy - he’s my RB Ride of the Week.
James Conner saved his week with yet another rushing TD, but otherwise didn’t do a lot in a game that got away from the Cards quickly. This week, I expect Kyler to be back and the game to be competitive. Seattle has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs, and Conner should again dominate the RB touches for Arizona. He’s again ranked outside the top 10 this week and I think he gets his huge season back on track with a big game in this one.
I can give you stats all day (and maybe all night) about how terrible Myles Gaskin and the Dolphins have been at running the ball, and how awful the Jets have been at defending the run. This is weakness vs. weakness - the NFL’s worst rushing attack taking on the league’s worst run defense - a defense that somehow has allowed RBs to score 17 rushing TDs (20 total) and ramble for 1,700 total yards from scrimmage in just 9 games. The Jets rush defense is historically bad - so even though Gaskin has managed just 101 yards on 46 carries over his last 3 games, the matchup is just too good. Gaskin should get enough work and red zone opportunities to outperform his ranking of RB20.
I’ve been fading RBs against the Bucs all year, so why is Saquon Barkley, who hasn’t played in over a month, a Ride? A few reasons. One, the Bucs will be without DT Vita Vea - a human fortress at the point of attack. Second, even with Vea in the lineup the Bucs haven’t been as strong against RBs of late, especially RBs who can do damage in the receiving game. And finally, Barkley looked great before he got hurt, and with Devontae Booker iffy for this contest he should see plenty of touches. Barkley is ranked outside the top 15 this week and that seems way too low.
A few more backs I like who are ranked in the teens this week: David Montgomery against the Ravens, James Robinson against the 49ers, and Elijah Mitchell at the Jaguars (assuming he plays - ***UPDATE: Mitchell is doubtful, we like Jeff Wilson as a Ride in his stead).
And how about a sleeper? D’Ernest Johnson is ranked in the 30s. Nick Chubb should be back for this one, but Kareem Hunt won’t be, and against a Lions defense allowing the second most fantasy points to RBs, I like Johnson to get enough work to be at least flex-worthy. He’s my RB Sleeper of the Week.
I also like both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson on Thursday night - both are ranked down in the 20s. It’s hard to know what the split will be, and it’s traditionally been difficult (that’s a nice word - maddening might be a better one, or maybe just #@$!!$$!) to try to figure out the usage of running backs in New England, but a few things argue for both backs being viable this week. The game script figures to be favorable, Brandon Bolden is iffy, and the matchup is excellent, against an Atlanta defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to RBs.
The Fades:
Miles Sanders could be back this week, muddying an already muddy backfield share. The Eagles ground game has been crushing it of late - they lead the league in rushing over the last 4 contests with over 750 yards. But this week, against a Saints run defense that allows less than 3 YPC, is ranked #1 against the run, and has been shutting down running backs week after week, I can’t trust any of the Philadelphia backs, and so I’m putting them all down as Fades.
Antonio Gibson made me look silly last week with his 2 TDs. But he didn’t do all that much besides that, gaining just 64 yards on 24 carries and adding 2 catches for 14 yards, in a game the WFT led all the way. I’ll risk another epic fail and make him my RB Fade of the Week, again. I expect a much worse game script for the WFT offense in this one, and the Panthers have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to RBs.
The Titans have a favorable matchup with the Texans this week, but I’d stay away from Adrian Peterson and D’Onta Foreman. I know Foreman is a hot call for lots of people this week so this is a bit contrarian, but I think this is a full blown three-man committee and I don’t trust the usage for any of the Titans RBs. One or two of them will probably score, but it’s hard to guess which ones and I think this is going to be Tannehill’s week.
Three more Fades: CEH (who should be back, but is probably going to lose a fair amount of work to Darrel Williams), Michael Carter, and Alex Collins.
WR
A Giant game is in Store for Godwin
Rides:
The Bucs are again going to be without AB, and Gronk is a maybe. And they’re going to come in angry. I like Chris Godwin to smash this week against the Giants on Monday night. He’s my WR Ride of the Week.
Ja'Marr Chase is ranked just outside the top 10 this week. I like the Bengals to get back to business against Vegas and for Chase to play a prominent role in that.
Hollywood Brown also finds himself ranked outside the top 10 this week. Miami was the first defense in a while to slow him down. I like a nice rebound game for him against a Bears defense that’s really struggled against the pass recently, and has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs.
And one more WR who is ranked in the teens but could easily be top 10 - Amari Cooper vs. the Chiefs. Last week it was CeeDee Lamb, and this week I think it will be Cooper, in what should be a shootout [***UPDATE - Cooper is OUT (COVID)].
I’m high on a bunch of receivers who are ranked down in the 20s this week:
Brandin Cooks. The Titans have allowed the most catches, yards and fantasy points to WRs this season, and Cooks has one of the biggest target shares of any player in the league. He should be targeted a ton in this one.
Jaylen Waddle. He’s averaged almost 10 targets a game over his last 5 contests, and the Jets have been very generous to WRs in recent weeks, and as already noted have allowed a ludicrous 175 points in their last 4 contests.
Hunter Renfrow is emerging as the top target in Vegas. He’s been a sleeper for me the last couple of weeks, and he’s a Ride again even as he moves up the weekly rankings.
How bad has it gotten for D.J. Moore? Early in the season he was routinely ranked in the top 10 each week and now he’s basically a forgotten man who gets ranked down in the mid 20s. I think he gets rediscovered this week, with a new QB and a smash matchup against the WFT defense, which has yielded the third most fantasy points to WRs.
And how about a few sleepers? I like the matchups and opportunities for Robbie Anderson, Rashod Bateman, Brandon Aiyuk and Michael Gallup - all ranked 35 or lower. Let’s make Anderson the WR Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Devonta Smith has been great in fantasy the last 2 weeks, with 3 total TDs. So why am I fading him? Well, a few reasons. First, he isn’t seeing a ton of volume, and TDs can be elusive when that’s the case. Second, while the Saints haven’t been great against WRs overall, they’ve been very good against #1 WRs. Just ask A.J. Brown, who had 1 catch for 16 yards last week. Marshawn Lattimore is part of the reason for that. This one is a little contrarian, and I’m a fan of his talent, but Smith is my WR Fade of the Week.
I’ve been riding Michael Pittman a lot in recent weeks, and it’s paid off. You’re starting him if you’ve got him, but temper expectations against the Bills, who’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs. I’m sure you’re sick of me talking about the Buffalo defense, so I’ll stop. Really, I will - mostly because we’re near the end of the column. Pittman is the WR15 this week and I doubt he comes close to that.
Another top 20 guy that I’m fading this week is Adam Thielen. The Packers are a difficult matchup, and he is a bit TD-dependent (although he scores plenty of them, even when he gets shut down - this call is risky).
A few more Fades for me this week: T.Y. Hilton (duh), Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Corey Davis.
TE
Rides:
Another Spike for Henry
Guess which tight end has the most TDs this season. Travis Kelce? Nope. Waller? No. Kittle? Wrong again. Andrews? No, and this is getting annoying. It’s Hunter Henry, with 7. Jonnu Smith might miss this game, and the Patriots should have their way in this one. Henry has a great chance to score, and that makes him my TE Ride of the Week.
Mike Gesicki is another player that burned me last week - 7 targets was fine, but 0 catches was not. I like him to rebound against the Jets hot, sticky mess of a defense, which I don’t need to discuss further. He’s a Ride.
Let’s go with some less obvious names who are poised to produce this week: I like C.J. Uzomah against the Raiders (who’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to TEs), Pat Friermuth against a Chargers defense that’s allowed the third most fantasy points to the position (assuming Big Ben is back), Adam Trautman against the Eagles, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to TEs, and Dan Arnold against the 49ers. Let’s make Uzomah the TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Guess which TE doesn’t lead the league in TDs? OK, that game was dumb and the answer is every other TE who isn’t Hunter Henry. But if you guessed Kyle Pitts, you’re very wrong as he has only scored once in 9 games. He does have very good totals for catches and yards, and I have no doubt that he’ll be targeted a lot tonight as the Falcons play catch-up. If you’ve got him you’re starting him, but here is why he is my TE Fade of the Week: The Falcons are short on weapons right now, and I expect the Patriots to take away the best weapon. That’s Pitts. It’s something they do pretty well.
Dalton Schultz was a hot name earlier this season but there are just too many mouths to feed in this offense, and especially with Michael Gallup back. Schultz is ranked inside the top 10 this week and I just don’t see it - he has 7 catches total in his last 3 outings. [***UPDATE - with Amari Cooper out, I think Schultz is an OK play this week]
Zach Ertz has also faded of late, and I’m fading him again this week. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a TE to score in over a month, and their defense has rounded into pretty good form of late.
Two more Fades: Gerald Everett (coming off a very good game) against the Cardinals, who’ve allowed the second fewest points and only one TD to the position, and Jared Cook against the Steelers.
OK, I’m going to do a tequila shot and then go check my newsfeed. Hopefully I won’t have to rewrite the entire column. Good luck to all in Week 11. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
