Pigskin Papers Take 2: 2022 Week 7

The Retirement Tour Hasn’t Gone as Planned

(Published October 25, 2022)

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Welcome to another edition of “Take Three”. Each week, I’m giving you 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component. This week, I’ve just got 2 Takes .

Here we go - Week 7, Take TWO!

******* See the WEEK 8 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN*****https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-8 :

Another Week, Another Embarrassing Loss

TAKE ONE: The NFC’s Preseason Favorites are Flopping

One of my takeaways last week was that the 4 oldest first string QBs in the NFL look old. Well, their struggles got even worse this past weekend, as Tom Brady (45), Aaron Rodgers (38), and Matt Ryan (38) all had subpar games while their teams got beat. The headliner was Brady’s Bucs, who came in as 13 point favorites over a 1-5 Panthers team that had just traded away its best offensive player, and scored just 3 points en route to an embarrassing 18 point loss. Matt Stafford (34) and the Rams had the week off, mercifully.

The continuing underperformance of Brady, Rodgers, and Stafford is part of a larger story. The overall struggles so far this season of the Bucs (3-4), Packers (3-4), and Rams (3-3) is a stunning development. These teams all won their divisions last year and when the season started they, along with Dallas who was the other NFC division winner, were the top 4 betting choices to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. Here we are 7 weeks in, and only Dallas (5-2) has a winning record. For all 4 teams, the biggest issue has been the offense. Sustaining drives and scoring points has been a huge challenge.

In 2021, these 4 offenses were all ranked among the NFL’s top 10, with Dallas and Tampa ranked 1-2, and Dallas, Tampa, L.A. and Green Bay finished the year as the 4 highest scoring teams in the NFC. This year? It couldn't be more different. Through 7 weeks, not one of them is ranked in the top half of the the NFL in total offense. Their respective rankings: Green Bay (20), Tampa Bay (22), LA Rams (26), and Dallas (28). Even more surprising is that all 4 teams are currently averaging LESS than 20 points per game. Last year, they all averaged more than 25. That’s a huge drop-off and of all the surprising developments (so far) of the 2022 season, the collective offensive incompetence of these 4 teams - all expected to be juggernauts - is perhaps the most stunning, this side of the Giants and Jets being a combined 11-3.

I won’t dive into all of the causes of this offensive malaise, because this column would end up being 10,000 words. Let’s just say there have been multiple failures including in some cases very shoddy line play. The question is whether any of them can turn it around and start scoring points like we expected. We’ll see, and I expect them all to do what they can including perhaps trades or other player moves, but for now Brady and Rodgers both look frustrated and somewhat disinterested, the Rams’ offense is basically a one-man show, and the Cowboys seem content to grind out wins with a stellar defense and a decent enough ground game. The good news for all 4 is that there’s still a lot of season left, and the NFC is pretty weak. Nine wins might be enough for a wild card or in certain cases maybe even a division title. Tampa is tied for first in a terrible NFC South division at 3-4, and the Rams are just a half game out of a disappointing NFC West division at 3-3. Dallas is 5-2 and again, their defense is good enough to keep them in every game, plus they should improve on offense as Dak continues to mend. Green Bay has the biggest hill to climb, because they’re already 3 games back of Minnesota in the loss column (and lost a game to the vikings).

I’m not writing any of these teams off, of course. It’s still relatively early and we saw last year (and the year before) what they each can be. That said, all 4 of these teams were expected to just stroll right into the NFC playoffs this year and outside of Dallas, I think they’re all going to have to fight to get there. In the case of Tampa Bay and Green Bay, their defenses have also been disappointing, although not to the same degree as the offense. For these 2 clubs in particular, games that looked like gimmes on the schedule have been landmines, as they’ve both learned the hard way the last 2 weeks.

FANTASY IMPACT: Anyone who drafted Brady, Rodgers, Dak or Stafford as a QB1, and lots of people did, has gotten poor performance after poor performance. It’s been better for Dak managers, because his multiple game absence forced them to start someone else. It’s been hard for most fantasy players to bench the other 3 - they’ve all had some tasty matchups and the blowup game feels like it should happen one of these weeks - and it probably will, but until it does, starting these guys over “lesser” options like Geno Smith, Cousins, Carr, Daniel Jones and some others has been a mostly painful exercise. Beyond the QBs, there has been plenty of underperformance. Cooper Kupp has been great and a few other skill position players on these offenses have been fine, but most of those the Rams, Cowboys, Bucs and Packers who got taken in Rounds 1-6 have disappointed to a degree, or a lot. A couple are no loner startable. Hopefully, better times are ahead.

The 2021 QB Class: Overhyped?

TAKE TWO: The 2021 QB Class is a Major Disappointment - So Far

I think it’s fair to ask when the teams that took QBs in Round 1 of the 2021 draft should start to really worry, or even panic. This was supposed to be an excellent QB class, with prospects at least as good as the 2018 class that had 5 QBs taken in Round 1. The top QB prospect was considered the best since Andrew Luck almost a decade earlier. QBs were taken 1-2-3 in the 2021 draft, which had only happened twice before (1971 and 1999) and a total of 5 went in the top 15.

After almost a season and a half, this QB quintet has been decidedly underwhelming. None has established himself (yet) as a clear franchise QB, and they all continue to struggle with any kind of consistency. It’s easy to find excuses for almost all of them, so I think we’ve all been pretty tolerant of the collective slow start. As a group, the end of their college careers was impacted by COVID. Trevor Lawrence gets a partial pass for his first year because of the Urban Meyer debacle and dysfunction. Zach Wilson has missed at least 3 full games due to injury in each of his 2 seasons. Trey Lance didn't play much as a rookie and was lost for the season this year in Week 1, so he’s barely gotten a chance. The Bears haven’t surrounded Justin Fields with much talent. Mac Jones, who had the best rookie year of the 5, got off to a rough start this year and then suffered a high ankle sprain, and is now looking over his shoulder at a 2022 rookie.

That’s all fine, but it doesn't change the facts. Lawrence has lost the vast majority of the games he’s started, and through 24 career games he’s thrown 21 TDs and 21 INTs. That’s actually GOOD for this class. Justin Fields has thrown 12 TDs and 16 INTs. Zach Wilson? 10 TDs and 13 INTs, and he’s thrown just 1 TD this year (he has gone 4-0 as a starter though, go figure). Mac Jones is slightly positive with 24 TDs and 19 INTs, while Trey Lance, in a very limited sample size, has 5 TDs to 3 INTs. Put it all together and believe it or not, these 5 QBs have thrown the exact same number of TDs (70) as INTs (70). Obviously that stat doesn’t tell the whole story, and one of the things that made this class so enticing is the mobility and dual threat that most of these QBs bring. But no matter how you slice it, it’s been a very shaky start for this group. The good news is they’ve all flashed at one time or another, and they’re all still very young. Josh Allen was just so-so in his first season, decent in his second, and then broke out in his third. Lamar didn’t start right away as a rookie and then exploded in his second season. I’ll still preach patience with this group, but it’s been disappointing, and none of the teams that drafted these QBs should be feeling like their their long-term QB situation is rock solid.

FANTASY IMPACT - The 4 QBs from this class who are playing this year have been tough starts in fantasy. Lawrence has been the best - he’s tied with Carson Wentz as the QB 11 on a ppg basis. He’s fine as a higher-end QB2, and in most cases he was drafted to be that. Justin Fields had a solid fantasy performance Monday night, but that’s been a rarity and for most of the season he’s been un-startable. Zach Wilson has the Jets winning games, but he hasn’t done a whole lot in them. Mac Jones hasn’t played well and even if he goes back to starting, we’ve seen how quick the hook might be if he struggles. You can’t play him right now. The good news is that outside of Lance, these QBs were generally drafted to be QB2s this year - but if you’re in a Superflex league, that’s a tough start each week, again other than Lawrence. The shaky play of these QBs has also significantly impacted the performance of the pass catchers on these teams, again with the exception of Lawrence. As noted, Wilson has 1 TD pass on the year (in 4 games). Fields only has 5 in 7 games, and Mac Jones only has 2 in 3 games played. Ouch.

And…CUT!

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