Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 8
The Eagles Should Continue to Soar in Week 8
(Published October 27, 2022, ***updated for injury and weather news Sunday October 30, 9 a.m.***)
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Welcome to NFL Week 8. It’s Halloween weekend and you know what’s scary? Starting Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Matt Stafford in fantasy. For those who keep getting burned by starting these guys over QBs who didn't come into this season as fantasy QB1s, it might be time to take the plunge. I’ll tackle that in the Rides, Fades and Sleepers below.
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In a hurry? See the Rides, Fades & Sleepers CHEATSHEET: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-8-cheatsheet
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Week 8 BYES: Chiefs and Chargers. It’s just 2 teams, but it means no game this week for the QB2 (Mahomes), RB1 (Ekeler), and TE1 (Kelce).
*** INJURY UPDATE, as of Sunday morning, 9 a.m.: ***
Players OUT:
QB - Tannehill (Malik Willis gets his first start), Matt Ryan (Sam Ehlinger gets his first start); RB - Conner, Hubard, Akers; WR - Chase, Deebo, Lazard, M. Thomas, Landry, Dotson, C. Davis, N. Collins; TE - Njoku, Bellinger; PK: Boswell
Players Returning (Playing): R. Wilson, Swift, E. Moore
Players DOUBTFUL and NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY: Zeke Elliott
Players QUESTIONABLE, and EXPECTED TO PLAY: T. Homer, D. Adams, Cooks, ARSB, Metcalf, Lockett, W. Robinson, Waller, Schultz, Juwan Johnson, L. Thomas.
WEATHER UPDATE: Once again, there are very few trouble spots. 6 of the 14 remaining games this week will be played in domes, which helps. Of the remaining 8, the only potential trouble spot is NYG@SEA, where light rain is expected throughout the contest, with cool temperatures, moderate winds and possibly some fog. Sounds like a typical 4th of July in Seattle.
Team Offense Report: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (29) 2. PHI (27.5) 3. MIA (27) 4. MIN (26.25) 5. DAL (25.5)
Bottom 5: 1. CHI (16) 2. PIT (16.5) 3. WAS (18.25) T4. GB (18.5) T4. CAR (18.5)
Team Defense Report: Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 7 weeks, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. BUF 3. DAL 4. PHI 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LV 2. KC 3. ATL 4. TEN 5. DET
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. BUF 3. LAR 4. DAL 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. DET 3. LAC 4. CLE 5. SEA
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. NYG 4. CHI 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. ATL 2. PIT 3. TEN 4. KC 5. NO
Top 5 vs TE: 1. LAR 2. NO 3. GB 4. WAS 5. CHI
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. LV 4. MIN 5. DET
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Ekeler, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers were decidedly mediocre last week. I got off to a fast start Thursday night with TE Sleeper of the Week Juwan Johnson, but the rest of the calls were pretty hit and miss. I’ll do better this week. The Week 7 scorecard: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-7-1 .
Cousins and #SKOL are Primed for a Big Week
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have to feel good coming off of their bye, with the Packers losing again while they rested. This week, Cousins is at home and faces a Cardinals defense that just gave up 4 TDs to Andy Dalton, and is bottom 10 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to QBs. Yes, they force turnovers, but I sense a nice run coming out of the bye for Cousins and the Vikings, Cousins is my QB Ride of the Week.
I didn’t love what I saw out of Tua last week, as the plan seemed to be for him to get rid of the ball right away on every dropback. He also got lucky with multiple dropped interceptions. He’s going to have to stand in longer than that to allow Hill and Waddle to uncover. This week, Miami travels to play a Lions team that’s had all sorts of issues on defense, and is allowing the 5th most FPPG to QBs. Ride Tua, who should play better with a game under his belt - just know the risk of reinjury is still a concern with him.
Dak Prescott was pretty so-so last week in his return. I think he’ll take a nice step forward this week against a Bears team that’s primed for a letdown, on a short week after a spirited road win at Foxboro on Monday night. This one is in Dallas and I think the Cowboys roll.
A couple of mid-range QBs that I like as Rides this week are Daniel Jones at Seattle, Derek Carr at New Orleans, and Jared Goff vs. Miami. Goff is at home, where he is a completely different player than Roadkill Jared.
Andy Dalton thew multiple interceptions last week but it’s not his fault when perfectly thrown balls get batted up by his receivers. Even if Thomas and Landry don’t return, I like Dalton at home against a Vegas defense that ranks dead last in FPPG yielded to QBs. This one feels like a shootout. I’ll make Dalton my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Sam Ehlinger is making his first NFL start on Sunday, so he’s certainly risky in any kind of season-long situation. But if you’re looking for a long-shot DFS play, why not Ehlinger at home against the Commanders? His rushing ability is intriguing.
Fades:
Aaron Rodgers is my QB Fade of the Week. How the mighty have fallen. If Rodgers is your QB1 and you’ve stubbornly refused to bench him, that’s fine, but this is a pretty good week to look elsewhere. The matchup at the Bills (second fewest FPPG allowed to QBs) is brutal, and he might be without his top receiving weapon.
Trevor Lawrence has been a decent fantasy option most weeks this year. He’s the QB11 on the season. I bet you didn't know that. I bet you also didn't know that the Broncos have only allowed 3 passing TDs in 7 games. Yup, there’s a new version of the No Fly Zone. Denver has allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs, which is especially impressive given that their offense can’t stay on the field. Denver’s pass D is legit and is to be avoided outside of the very top QBs who’d you’d never consider benching. Fade Lawrence.
Tom Brady is a tricky one this week. On the one hand, he’s coming off a game where his offense scored a grand total of 3 points against the Panthers. On the other, he’s a prideful guy who can’t be happy with the embarrassing stink of last week, and he’s at home this week, facing a Ravens’ defense that’s had some really bad games on the back end. I’m going to throw all of those positives out the window. I’ve never doubted Brady before, but what I’ve seen doesn’t look like the Brady I’m accustomed to fearing, and I doubt him right now. Until I see it, I’ll stop giving him so much credit for his past greatness. He’s having a very mediocre season, and I don’t know if he can just snap out of it. Feel free to throw this paragraph back in my face on Thursday night when he completes his 5th TD pass, and the cannons boom.
Justin Fields came up big on Monday night and it was good to see the Bears throw in some designed runs to keep the defense off balance. The Patriots clearly weren’t expecting that and Fields killed them all night with big scrambles and runs. I don’t see Dallas having that issue. This is a big boy defense, and while last week was promising for a QB who’s been struggling, I’ll fade Fields.
Kenneth Walker is the Real Deal
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
Derrick Henry might run for 250 yards and 3 TDs this week. The Texans have been gashed on the ground week in, and week out. They’ve allowed the most FPPG to RBS and an average of around 170 yards from scrimmage per game to the position. Henry isn’t eligible for the Rides this week because he’s ranked too high, but I had to mention him because the matchup is so good. If you have him, enjoy the bonanza.
Kenneth Walker is fast. Kenneth Walker is good. Keneth Walker should be ranked inside the top 5 this week, but he’s just below that. Only 4 teams have given up more rushing yards per game to RBs than the Giants have. Kenneth Walker is my RB Ride of the Week.
Tony Pollard is a close second. He’s currently ranked outside the top 20 for the week, but that will trend upwards as it becomes more evident that Zeke is likely to either miss this week’s game, or not play his usual complement of snaps. Zeke has a knee sprain and a thigh bruise, and with Dallas having a bye next week, I think it’s easy to see where this is headed. Remember when Khalil Herbert finished as the RB1 in week 5, with David Montgomery out of the lineup? Pollard could be in for a similar day, at home against Herbert’s team which has allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs. Ride him. [UPDATE - Zeke is NOT expected to play - Pollard is a TOP 10 PLAY today]
Jonathan Taylor is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 this week. With the Colts giving Sam Ehlinger his first career start, I expect a big workload for Taylor, who should benefit from Ehlinger’s mobility. Taylor is healed and he’s overdue, and I think this is the last time he’ll be ranked this low for a while. Jump back in.
A little further down the rankings, a couple of backs who are ranked in the teens but who I like for top 12 performances in Week 8 are Raheem Mostert against a Lions’ defense that’s allowed 10 rushing TDs to RBs in just 6 games (and the second most FPPG to the position), Rhamondre Stevenson at the Jets, and Miles Sanders vs. the Steelers.
I like a few RBs who are ranked in the 25-40 range to have RB2-type weeks, if not better. Ride ‘em. The list: D’Onta Foreman @ATL, Eno Benjamin @MIN, Tyler Allgeier vs. ATL, and Lat Murray @JAC (London). Murray is ranked outside the top 35 and at that number I’ll make him my RB Sleeper of the Week, as I think he’ll continue to see a good share of the work and especially with Mike Boone on IR.
Fades:
It’s hard to find an RB in the top 15 to fade this week - I think they all have decent matchups and/or a likely favorable game script. So I’ll go with Aaron Jones as my RB Fade of the Week. The Bills are a tough draw (they’re allowing the second fewest FPPG to RBs, and teams are averaging just 53 RB rushing yards per game against them). I think he’ll be OK and should get plenty of targets - but you didn't draft him to be just OK.
While we are here, fade A.J. Dillon. It’s that simple. I’m not sure what happened to him, but he’s a symptom of an entire offense gone south. He’s the RB43 over the last 5 weeks, and has basically disappeared. I know you drafted him to be your RB2, but he shouldn't be in lineups.
If Zeke is active (I don’t think he will be), I wouldn’t play him as I think he’ll be used sparingly and especially if the Cowboys start pulling away. [UPDATE: Zeke is NOT expected to play today]
I’d wait at least a week on James Robinson, who is just getting settled in with the Jets, and probably won’t see a big workload - yet.
I’ll also fade the other Robinson (Brian). He did get 20 carries last week, but Antonio Gibson did more with his 13 touches, and J.D. McKissic is still around. The Colts aren’t a bad matchup and I think he’ll be OK, but I’m a little leery of the Washington committee.
Don’t start any Rams RBs this week. The 49ers have allowed the fewest FPPG to the position, and the Rams can’t run the ball. At all.
Like Walker, Olave is a Rookie on a Roll
WR - First, a word from our sponsor:
We don’t often see this in fantasy, but the cream has risen to the top at this position, with zero surprises. A “Big 6” has emerged at Wide Receiver - 6 exceptional talents who on a weekly basis have solid floors to go with extremely high ceilings, and who’ve proven to be pretty matchup-proof. Here they are, in order of average FPPG (Half PPR): 1. Diggs (21), 2. Kupp (20.1), 3. Jefferson (18.3), 4. Hill (17.1), 5. Chase (16.9), 6. Adams (16.6). The drop-off to the next healthy WR after Adams is almost 3 points. SURPRISE (NOT): These were 6 of the top 7 fantasy WRs in 2021 (Deebo was #2 last year, he’s dropped off and right now he’s around WR20 on an average FPPG basis). These 6 studs have proven it. My WR Rides begin below this elite tier. [UPDATE: Chase has a hip injury, is OUT today, and is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks]
Rides and Sleepers:
A.J. Brown has been very effective this year, averaging just over 13 FPPG in half PPR. The Philadelphia offense is diverse, and outside of Hurts, the ceilings aren’t so high for the rest of the team. Still, I’ll make Brown my WR Ride of the Week this week, at home vs. the Steelers who’ve given up more than their fair share of big plays this year, and have allowed the 4th most catches, most yards, and second most FPPG to WRs. Hop on board!
While we’re in the Keystone State, I’ll also ride Devonta Smith this week - for all the reasons listed above. Smith has been balling out, and there’s plenty to go around.
Four more high-end WRS who I’m happy to ride this week and who I think are all in line for top-10 type days in plus matchups are ARSB at home against the Dolphins, Jaylen Waddle in the same game, DeAndre Hopkins at the Vikings and Mike Evans vs. the Ravens. I don’t think Evans drops another easy TD this year.
Moving further down the rankings into the lower teens and 20s, I’ll keep riding Chris Olave. He has at least 80 yards receiving or a TD in every NFL game he’s played except his very first one. He’s also taking full advantage of the injuries to other pass catchers on the Saints, as he’s averaging just over 10 targets over his last 5 games. Plus, ahem, he’s really good. Other receivers I’m riding in this range are Scary Terry at the Colts (it’s Halloween for cryin’ out loud) and Brandin Cooks against the Titans.
Jerry Jeudy is ranked outside the top 30 this week, and I’ll ride him too, at the Jaguars (London).
Need a sleeper or 2? I’ll go with Wan’Dale Robinson as my WR Sleeper of the Week, at the Seahawks. Two other sleepers I like this week are Tyler Boyd at Cleveland (no, I’m not just chasing points here) and Isaiah McKenzie vs. the Packers. [UPDATE - the news about Chase broke after this column posted, and it just makes Boyd a stronger play]
Fades:
Christian Kirk is my WR Fade of the Week. He’s been very good this season, but Denver’s defense is where passing games go to die. They’ve allowed just one TD catch by a WR this season, and have allowed the fewest FPPG to both QBs and WRs. Kirk is likely to see a lot of Pat Surtain, and that’s no fun. Hard pass.
Michael Pittman gets the Fade nod from me this week. I love the talent, but don’t know what to expect from the Colts’ offense with the QB switch. I see his target volume potentially dropping, at least at first.
I’ll also fade Jacobi Meyers at the Jets. Their pass defense is vastly improved this year with the Sauce they added to the dish (I’m almost out of bad jokes - hang in there).
In the same game, I’ll fade all of the Jets wideouts. They’re not throwing much, and the Patriots are pretty stingy to receivers.
Speaking of not throwing the ball, fade Drake London until further notice. This team just refuses to throw. They trailed most of last week’s game by 20+ points and STILL only had 13 pass attempts (vs. 29 rushes). I’m at a loss for words. And yes, Kyle Pitts is a fade too (we’ll get there shortly).
The Lions Need Hock to go Big This Week
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
Another week, another Taysom Hill TD. Here is where things stand at the TE position: Unless you have one of the top 5 or 6 options, you’re basically just hoping for a TD to salvage the week. Well, Hill gives you a significantly better chance for that than any of the dozen or so mid-range TEs who aren’t seeing more than 5-6 targets per game, plus his ceiling is higher. The Raiders also happen to be a great matchup for traditional TEs. Hill is my TE Ride of the Week.
Irv Smith is a Ride for me this week and this one is purely a matchup play. The Cardinals are tied with the Raiders in allowing the most TD catches to TEs, and have yielded the second most FPPG to the position.
Ride T.J. Hockenson vs. Miami. The Lions are going to need to score to keep up in this one and their WR corps is still shorthanded.
Juwan Johnson was my TE Sleeper of the Week last week and he made me look good, with 2 TDs. I’ll run it back - he’s ranked as the TE19 this week, with the Saints facing a Raiders’ D that’s allowed 6 TDs to TEs in 6 games, and the 3rd most FPPG to the position. Johnson is once again my TE Sleeper of the Week.
If you’re desperate for a TE this week, and I’m sure some of you are, 2 other sleepers I’d consider are Greg Dulcich at the Jaguars (London) and Harrison Bryant vs. the Bengals.
Fades:
Why is Kyle Pitts still being ranked inside the top 10 each week? Pitts was perhaps the biggest miscalculation of this past offseason. What have these so-called experts been watching?!? Pitts did get a goal line target last week, but once again he put up a stat line that produced almost no points. None of this is his fault. This team DOES NOT THROW THE FOOTBALL. Unless and until they do, Pitts is very hard to trust. He’s my TE Fade of the Week.
George Kittle is trending in the right direction, with at least 9 targets and at least 80 yards receiving in his last 2 games. This week that trend runs into the toughest matchup there is. The Rams have allowed just 14 catches for 120 yards to the TE position all year, with zero TDs. I think Kittle easily will beat the average of what the Rams are giving up, and you’re starting him if you have him, but don’t expect a repeat of the last 2 weeks.
I’ll fade both Dawson Knox and Robert Tonyan in the Packers-Bills tilt. Neither of these teams has allowed a TE to score all year.
PK and D/ST: See the Week 8 Waiver Wire column for streamer suggestions at these 2 positions: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-8 .
Good luck to all in Week 8!
DH
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