Pigskin Papers Waiver Wire - Week 17
Dare to Pick Up Dare
(Posted December 27, 2021, updated December 29, 2021)
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Welcome to Week 17, and my (sniff) last Waiver Wire column of the year. It’s the Fantasy Football finals and if you’re still reading, that probably means you’re in a championship game this week. If that’s the case, way to go and let’s finish this!
Where did this season go? I know it’s the longest regular season ever but is it really week 17 already? It seems like only yesterday that I pretty much emptied my entire FAAB wallet after Week 1 to land Elijah Mitchell - which has mostly worked out except that he’s suffered 4 different injuries this season. What is it with 49ers running backs? Over the last few seasons, the string of injuries is almost hard to believe. But I digress…you’ve got a championship to play for and I’ve got a column to write. So here we go.
In terms of strategy, normally it’s pretty easy for championship week - you know where you might need a streamer, and if you need to shore up a position where you’ve got an injured starter who is out or iffy for the week. And maybe you make one or two moves that can help you do that. But this year is very different. As we’ve seen over the last 3 weeks, EVERY player is potentially iffy. The daily “who’s got Covid” NFL newsfeed is absolutely terrifying, and even with the new NFL COVID protocols announced this week, it’s hard to know who might make it off the list in time to play. So my advice is this: Try to use the waiver wire not only to make adds where you know you need help, but also to shore up depth where you can. And pay attention to the news throughout the week, as there might be more names to consider as things develop.
QB: I don’t have a lot to recommend here, and if you made the finals, you’ve probably been riding one of the top 10 QBs and you’re all set. However, if you’re in need, Mac Jones (home vs. Jacksonville) isn’t a bad streaming option. New England has a very high implied total of 29.5 points this week and I expect them to get back on track against a terrible opponent after 2 straight losses against stiff competition. Elsewhere, Jimmy J. suffered a thumb injury to his throwing hand Thursday night and early reports are that he’s unlikely to play this week. The matchup (home vs. Texans) is a good one, but do you really want to hang your entire fantasy season on Trey Lance? I wouldn’t, but it’s not the craziest thing I’ve ever heard.
RB: As usual, there’s a lot more to talk about at this position. We’ve already had a few weeks this season with multiple big-name RB injuries, and unfortunately, Week 16 joins the list. The wounded: James Robinson, CEH, Darrell Henderson, Miles Sanders, and Aaron Jones. Here is what we know as of Wednesday: Robinson is done for the season with a ruptured achilles, Henderson is out 3-5 weeks with a knee sprain, Sanders has a broken hand and has been declared out for this week, CEH is “week to week” and is iffy at best for Week 17, and Aaron Jones should be OK. In most of these cases the RBs who will step up are already rostered in the vast majority of leagues, but let’s go through them, and some other names to consider as well.
Dare Ogunbowale is the next man up for the Jaguars. Their matchup this week (@Patriots) isn’t a particularly good one, but he should see volume; plus, he should be available on your waiver wire. He ran well in Week 16 after J-Rob went down, albeit against the worst run defense in the league. He’s a priority add, but temper expectations.
At this point, neither Sony Michel nor A.J. Dillon should be available in ANY leagues, and neither should Darrel Williams for that matter. If any of these 3 are available, pick them up. Michel is my clear first choice of this group, and no, I’m not too worried about the potential return of Cam Akers.
Boston Scott stepped up nicely (again) after Miles Sanders left the Week 16 game. With Jordan Howard (stinger) iffy this week, Scott is a priority add in a nice matchup against the WFT.
Rex Burkhead ran wild against the Chargers on Sunday, and he benefited from David Johnson being out. He’s not the first RB to run all over the Chargers this season, and Johnson could be back next week, but Burkhead looks like the lead back right now. The matchup this week (@SF) is tough, but volume is volume.
Michael Carter led the Jets backfield last week and looked good in the process, going over 100 yards rushing for the first time in his career. He’s another one who shouldn’t be available anywhere. The matchup this week (vs. Tampa) is a bad one although they’ve given up a lot of receptions and yards to RBs, and Carter is a good receiving option (someone please tell that to Zach Wilson).
Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw just 7 carries last week in a backup role to Ronald Jones, but he made the most of it - breaking off a 55 yard TD run on his first touch of the game. The Bucs play the Jets and their atrocious run defense this week, which makes him a sneaky play if you’re stuck at an RB spot.
WR:
Don’t Underestimate The Trust Factor
Isaiah McKenzie made the most of his opportunity this week, with both Gabe Davis and Cole Beasley out with COVID. If neither of those players can make it back (both are unvaccinated, but under the new protocols that’s less of a determinant in terms of the timetable to return), McKenzie is an intriguing option as the matchup this week at Atlanta s a great one.[UPDATE: Beasley and Davis have both been taken off of the COVID list. I wouldn’t go after McKenzie]
It’s hard to recommend any offensive player on the Giants, but Kadarius Toney is finally healthy, or at least some semblance of it, and we saw earlier this year that he can make plays if the Giants can get him the ball in space. He only had 4 catches for 28 yards last week, but against the Bears, he’s got a better shot at doing some damage.
Josh Palmer has scored in 2 of the last 3 games and he’s in the same boat as McKenzie. If neither Mike Williams nor Jalen Guyton can get off the COVID list, he’s a decent play, even in a tough matchup against the Broncos.
After being a complete non-factor for most of the season, Robby Anderson is suddenly getting plenty of targets. He’s seen at least 8 in 3 straight games and is coming off a particularly busy game, with 10 (he caught 5 of them). The Panthers visit the Saints this week.
Here are 2 repeats from recent weeks: Allen Lazard (this week, vs. Vikings, but note that if MVS is able to return, he’s a less attractive option), and K.J. Osborn (at the Packers).
TE:
Gerald Everett has been mentioned in this column each of the last 2 weeks, and he continues to produce week after week, as an important piece of the Seattle passing game. This week, the Seahakws face the Lions which is a nice matchup.
Cole Kmet continues to see plenty of targets - he’s averaging more than 6 per game over his last 5 games. He has yet to score his first NFL TD, however, as Jimmy Graham is the preferred red zone option. The matchup with the Giants this week is a favorable one.
Brevin Jordan of the Texans has been productive over the last month, and Davis Mills looks for him in the red zone.
If you’re stuck at tight end, you could do worse than just streaming whoever is playing the Eagles. The WFT have been deploying 2 tight ends recently, and of the two I have a slight preference for RSJ over John Bates.
Good luck this week - make sure to check out my Rides and Fades column on Thursday.
DH
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