Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Championship Week (17)
Championship Week is Here!
(Posted December 30, 2021, updated January 1 and 2, 2022 for injury and COVID news)
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Happy New Year, and welcome, readers, to the final installment of the Pigskin Papers Weekly Fantasy Preview for the 2021 season.
*****In a hurry? here is a CHEATSHEET version of this column: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-preview-cheatsheet-week-17 .
I’ll get to this week’s Rides, Fades and Sleepers in a minute. I know, it’s a really big week for a lot of you, and you’ve got difficult lineup decisions to make. But first, I hope you’ll indulge me for a moment. I haven’t written much in this blog about myself or why I’m doing this and I’d like to take a moment to do that now. When I started writing this blog last summer I didn’t have any specific goals in mind, or much of a plan for regular content and schedule. I just knew that I had a lot to say about the NFL and fantasy football - two things I follow very closely and am passionate about - and that I wanted to write about them instead of constantly reading other people’s takes. I also knew that I wanted some of my content to explore things that often get overlooked and aren’t talked about enough, are generally misunderstood, or that run contrary to conventional wisdom.
I’ve been an avid NFL fan for close to 50 years, and I’ve played fantasy football for more than half of that stretch, with a lot of success. Meanwhile, I always wanted to be a sportswriter if/when I grew up, and I dabbled with it right out of college before moving on to other things. With a lengthy career as a corporate attorney wrapped up and out of the way, here I am, spending some of my time doing what I always wanted to do. I’m having fun doing it and I’ve met some really good and helpful people along the way.
When the blog launched in June, 2021, I had about a dozen readers and most of them were related to me. I’ve grown a decent-sized audience since then and I’m really happy about that. Whether you’ve been here since the preseason, or started following the blog somewhere along the way during the season, or are here for the first time this week, thanks so much for reading my columns. I’ve gotten a lot of encouragement, suggestions, feedback, and support from quite a few readers and it means a lot.
Meanwhile, the blog isn’t going dark after this week - not at all. I’ll be writing about NFL football and fantasy football regularly through the playoffs and during the off-season, so stay tuned to this space and to my social media accounts for alerts and updates. In fact, my next column will challenge some of the sacred cows of fantasy football and I hope you’ll find it thought-provoking. For next season, I’ve got some fresh ideas and I’m looking forward to doing bigger and better things with this blog. Suggestions are always welcome.
OK, enough about me and my blog. I know when to shut up, sort of. If you’re here, there’s a good chance that you’re playing for a fantasy league championship this weekend, so we’ve got work to do. You’ve obviously got a really good roster, but you need to win just one more matchup to take it home. Let me see if I can be of some help. Make sure you also check my Week 17 Waiver Wire column for additional insights about this coming week: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-17 ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-preview-cheatsheet-week-16 .
********** INJURY AND COVID UPDATE - SUNDAY JANUARY 2, 8 A.M. **********
We’ve got a lot to update, so let’s get right to it. I’ll start with COVID and then move to injuries. It’s worth noting that some players have come off the list in the past and not performed at 100%, or gotten a full workload. Others have come back with no issues. Also, there are some players listed below (such as Carson Wentz) who still need to be cleared by a doctor before they can play. The following players are no longer on the COVID list as of 6 p.m. on Saturday: Carson Wentz, Tyler Huntley, Taysom Hill, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, R. Stevenson, Brandin Cooks, MVS, Gabe Davis, Cole Beasley, Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Laviska Shenault, and Travis Kelce.
And here are notable fantasy assets who are still ON the COVID list for Week 17, and therefore OUT for this week unless they can get cleared before their game (unlikely for all): Kirk Cousins (Sean Mannion gets the start, and it’s a downgrade for the rest of the players on that offense), Antonio Gibson (Jarret Patterson should lead the backfield), David Johnson, Elijah Moore, Josh Reynolds, Darius Slayton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Darren Waller.
And now for the injuries. Here is the injury update (remember, I’m not listing anyone who is on IR):
QB: Jared Goff (knee) is doubtful, so Tim Boyle likely gets another start. Jimmy G (thumb) is also doubtful and Trey Lance is expected to start in a great matchup at home vs. the Texans. Lamar Jackson (ankle) barely practiced this week and while the Ravens are saying he has a chance to play, the expectation is another start for Tyler Huntley. Justin Fields (ankle) is OUT, and Andy Dalton is starting against the Giants. Drew Lock gets another start for the Broncos in place of Teddy Bridgewater, and he will be down a few WRs.
RB:
OUT: CEH (Darrel Williams gets the start), Miles Sanders (Jordan Howard should split time with Boston Scott)
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Elijah Mitchell, Damien Harris,, Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Jordan Howard
QUESTIONABLE: Cam Akers (not expected to play), Mark Ingram (not expected to play), James Conner, Kareem Hunt
EXPECTED BACK: D’Andre Swift
WR and TE:
OUT: K. Toney, N. Agholor, Tre’Quan Smith, J. O’Shaughnessy
QUESTIONABLE: A. Brown (expected to play), M. Brown, M. Evans, (expected to play but could be limited) C. Sutton, E. Sanders, T. Conklin (expected to play), J. Meyers
EXPECTED BACK: Deonte Harris, P. Friermuth
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT
Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 17:
Top 5:
TB (29.5) @NYJ
BUF (29) vs. ATL
NE (29) vs. JAX
SF (28.5) vs. HOU
KC (28) @ CIN
DAL (28) vs. ARI
Bottom 5:
JAX (13) @NEP
ATL (14.75) vs. BUF
HOU (16) @ SF
NYG (16) @ CHI
CAR (16) @ NO
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT
I’ll highlight some plus and minus matchups in the passing and running game as we go through the Rides and Fades.
Scheduling Note: There are no Thursday or Saturday Games this week.
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce or Cooper Kupp. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades did well last week, for the most part. Click here to look at last week’s preview (or the shorter cheatsheet version) and you can see all the hits and misses from last week: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-16
Here we go - the Week 17 Rides and Fades (AND SEE THE INJURY AND COVID NEWS ABOVE FOR KEY UPDATES):
Let’s Go Right Back to Dak
QB - The consensus top 7 ranked QBs this week are all no-brainers and I’ll focus on players ranked further down the list. If you have one of the top 7 options, enjoy the points! If you have 2 of them and have to make a tough choice, here is the top end of my QB rankings for this week: Allen, Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Hurts, Stafford, Herbert.
Rides:
Dak Prescott was my QB Ride of the Week last week, and he completely went off, throwing for 300 yards and 4 TDs IN THE FIRST HALF ALONE. Arizona has a much better defense than the WFT, but the Cardinals are reeling and their play has fallen off significantly on both sides of the ball. Dak struggled for more than a month but I think that’s over now, and that he’ll keep it going at home this week in a game that matters to Dallas for playoff seeding (they can still end up as the NFC’s #1 seed). He’s my QB Ride of the Week again this week and I won’t be surprised to see another top 5 finish from him.
Joe Burrow is another of my Week 16 Rides who delivered in a big, big way. KC has been playing very good defense for a while now, so it’s not an ideal matchup, but this battle of division leaders could easily become a shootout and Burrow has the arm and the weapons to compete with the potent KC offense. He’s ranked as the QB 10 this week and I think he’s going to deliver a better performance than that.
Two QBs ranked between 11 and 15 that I think have a good chance to finish inside the top 10 for the week are Russell Wilson at home against the Lions, and Taysom Hill (assuming he’s cleared) at home against what’s left of the Carolina Panthers, in a bounceback game for the Saints’ offense. They’re both Rides.
Trey Lance is an interesting play this week. Personally, I wouldn’t feel that confident trusting him with my fantasy championship on the line. That said, he’s had a lot more time to develop and prepare than earlier in the season when he was thrust into duty, and the matchup with the Texans is a good one and especially because they're such a bad run defense (only the Steelers allow more rushing yards per game). Lance has some good upside this week.
Hopefully, you don’t need to dig deep at QB this week. But if you do, a couple of sleepers I’d consider are Mac Jones against the Jaguars and Davis Mills at the 49ers. I’ll make Jones my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Kyler Murray has struggled the last 2 weeks, along with the entire Cardinals’ offense. They scored just 1 TD in each game, and looked out of sync. This week they travel to Dallas which is not an easy place for an offense to get well. The Cowboys are allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to QBs and they’ve picked off a league-best 25 passes. They also have an extremely disruptive pass rush that cuts off throwing lanes (an issue for shorter QBs in particular) and while Murray will probably get his rushing yards, and decent passing yards, I don’t see him coming close to his ranking of QB8 this week. He’ll be just OK, and given his lofty ranking that makes him my QB Fade of the Week.
Lamar Jackson may or may not make it back for this week’s crucial home game against the Rams. If he plays, I don’t expect him to be able to run as much or as effectively as usual, and it’s not like he was lighting the world on fire as a passer before he got hurt. The Rams are a tough matchup, having allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs. Lamar is ranked as the QB11 this week and that’s way too high for me - he’s a Fade.
I don’t especially like either of Tua or Ryan Tannehill in the Miami at Tennessee game, and I’m fading each of them. Both of these defenses struggled against the pass early in the season and both have improved significantly. Both pass rushes are good - Miami now leads the league in sacks with 45 and the Titans are not far behind (tied for 10th with 37), and I think both QBs will be pressured plenty. Yes, the competition has been weak, but during their 7 game winning streak the Dolphins have given up an average of just under 12 points per game. They’ve allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to QBs on the season and have been especially good against QBs that like to run. The Titans are more middle of the pack, but I just don’t see a big game from Tua in this one.
Another pair of QBs I’d avoid this week: Derek Carr at the Colts and Big Ben vs. the Browns - in both cases, it’s a QB that’s been struggling of late, with a fairly difficult matchup. I’d also stay away from Jared Goff at the Seahawks and Matt Ryan at the Bills.
RB
Rides:
I’m Jonesing for Jones
I’ll fire up Ronald Jones as my RB Ride of the Week. Why? Because the Bucs are playing the Jets, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to RBs on the season by a decent margin. This stat is almost hard to believe but in 15 games the Jets have allowed 26 total TDs to running backs. Not only do I like Jones but I think you can play Ke’Shawn Vaughn if you’re desperate for an RB3 or flex play.
If Elijah Mitchell misses another game, you can feel good about riding Jeff Wilson again this week in a smash spot at home against the Texans and their 31st ranked run defense. They’ve allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs, and the 49ers should control this game. My only hesitation (besides Mitchell possibly returning, in which case Wilson would have an uncertain workload) is that when Trey Lance started earlier in the season, the RB production suffered.
Rashaad Penny is the RB 5 in half PPR over the last 4 games. You heard that right. Enter the Lions, who’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs, and you have a recipe for major success. Penny should rumble for big fantasy production this week. He’s ranked outside the top 15 this week and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t finish in the top 10.
Here are a few RBs ranked down in the lower teens who I’m high on this week: Javonte Williams at the Chargers (who’ve been allowing huge rushing yardage totals all year, and trail only the Jets in allowing the most fantasy points to RBs), Darrel Williams at the Bengals (assuming CEH is out) and Chase Edmonds at Dallas (but only if James Conner is out again).
Let’s hit on some sleepers, all ranked outside the top 25 this week. I already mentioned Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Here are more: Jordan Howard and Boston Scott at the WFT, Rex Burkhead at the 49ers, and Tony Pollard against the Cardinals. I’ll make Howard my RB Sleeper of the Week, and if he can’t suit up Sunday, then it’s Boston Scott.
The Fades:
D’Onta Foreman bailed out his owners with a TD last week, but if you look beyond that, he had less than 20 yards rushing and the Titans deployed a full blown 3-man RBBC in their win over the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been a rough matchup for RBs of late. They haven’t allowed a running back to score a TD during their 7 game winning streak and have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season. Foreman is my RB Fade of the Week.
In the same game, I’m fading all of the Miami RBs. It’s the same story as the team they’re playing. The Dolphins are using a 3-man RBBC, and the Titans allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points to RBs.
Josh Jacobs has had a pretty solid season, and last week he put up season highs for carries (27) and yards (129). The Colts allow the 7th fewest points to RBs and should be getting Darius Leonard back this week, among others. Jacobs is ranked inside the top 15 this week and I think he’s going to find tough sledding in this one. You’re starting him if you have him, but beware.
I’d again stay away from Devonta Freeman this week, in a bad matchup and with the uncertainty at QB for the Ravens.
A few more RB Fades - I think all of these players are in good spots to see volume, but won’t do much with their touches, and their teams will struggle to score: Saquon Barkley at the Bears, Dare O at the Patriots and Michael Carter vs. the Bucs.
WR
What Can Brown Do For You This Week?
Rides:
Antonio Brown put up a very nice stat line last week in his return from an 8 week absence. I think he finds the end zone at least once this week in what should be a Bucs’ blowout of the Jets. He’s ranked at the bottom of the top 10 and is my WR Ride of the Week.
I’ll keep riding Jaylen Waddle until the cows come home. Every week, he’s ranked somewhere in the teens, and every week, he produces solid numbers with tremendous volume. His floor is high and especially in PPR formats. The Dolphins are figuring out all sorts of ways to get him the ball and he’s become the centerpiece of the offense. The Titans allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs and I think Tua will look Waddle’s way a lot on Sunday. Ride him again.
Two players whose teams face each other this week, and who’ve shown up in my Rides a few times recently, are Amon St. Brown and Tyler Lockett. They’re both ranked in the mid-teens this week and I like them both to outperform that. Ride them again.
Here are 4 WRs who are ranked 20 or lower this week who I’m recommending as Rides: Amari Cooper vs. the Cardinals (who’ve allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs), OBJ and Van Jefferson at the Ravens (who are very banged up in the secondary, allow the 4th most fantasy points to WRs, and just got torched by the Bengals’ passing attack last week) and Devonta Smith at the WFT (who’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs).
Let’s hit on some WR sleepers. The following WRs are all ranked outside the top 30 and I think you can trust all of them as WR 3s or flexes this week, if you need one of them: Allen Lazard and MVS (if he returns) vs. the Vikings, who allow the second most fantasy points to WRs, Kendrick Bourne vs. the Jaguars, Kadarius Toney at the Bears, Robby Anderson at the Saints, and K.J Osborn at the Packers. Lazard has scored a TD in 2 of the last 3 and is getting red zone targets, and the matchup is ideal, so I’ll make him my WR Sleeper of the Week, even if MVS plays.
Fades:
Hollywood Brown has cooled off considerably over the second half of the season. I think he’ll see plenty of Jalen Ramsey this week, and that the Ravens’ passing offense will continue to flow through Mark Andrews. Brown is my WR Fade of the Week.
It’s sad that Terry McLaurin keeps showing up in the Fades, given his talent. But the WFT is a mess, and I think he’ll see plenty of Darius Slay this week. Scary Terry, I’m scared to put you in a lineup and I’m fading you.
In a similar vein, D.J. Moore is also suffering from poor QB play in a bad offense, and he’s likely to get the Lattimore treatment this week. Moore is another reluctant Fade.
Brandon Aiyuk has really come on in the second half of the season. But I’m fading him this week for 2 reasons - the first is that I don’t trust Trey Lance to have a lot of success throwing the ball, and the second is that I think the 49ers won’t need to throw a lot in this one.
Russell Gage is another WR who’s been hot the last month. This one is about the matchup - the Bills sport the NFL’s #1 ranked pass defense and they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs. Throw in that it’s a January game in Buffalo and I’m out.
You can’t have any confidence in Chase Claypool at this point. Over his last 10 games he’s scored just 1 TD, and topped 5 catches only once, and he’s the WR 41 during that stretch. I’m out.
A few more Fades: Kenny Golladay (again), and all of the Jaguar WRs.
TE
Oh, Henry!
Rides: If you have one of the top 7 at the position you’re playing him, so I’ll focus on the players below that. Here are my rankings for the top 7, in case you have 2 of them and need to choose: Kelce, Andrews, Gronk, Kittle, Knox, Goedert, Ertz.
Once you get past the obvious names above, my next favorite play this week is Hunter Henry at home vs. the Jaguars, and he’s my TE Ride of the Week. The rest of the Rides all fall outside the top 10 in the rankings this week, but there are some decent options.
Foster Moreau should see another start this week, and I like his upside against a Colts’ defense that’s allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TEs.
I’ll keep riding Gerald Everett, who has moved above sleeper territory and firmly into Ride range. Everett is hot - he’s the TE 8 over the last 5 weeks and Russ clearly trusts him in the red zone.
If the Broncos are smart, they’ll exploit the single best TE matchup on the board in the Chargers, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points and are tied for most TDs allowed to tight ends. Let’s ride Noah Fant.
And I’ve got some viable sleepers for you this week: Cole Kmet vs. the Giants, Brevin Jordan at the 49ers, RSJ at the Eagles, and Mo-Alie Cox vs. the Raiders (and especially if Jack Doyle is out). I’ll roll the dice with Kmet as the TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Jared Cook and the Chargers face Denver this week. The Broncos have still allowed just 1 TD to a tight end all year, and only New England has allowed fewer fantasy points to the position. Cook is my TE Fade of the Week.
And I’ll be brave and fade one of the TEs that’s ranked inside the top 10 this week. You’re probably playing Kyle Pitts if you have him, but temper expectations on the road against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed just 3 TDs to tight ends all year, and the 4th fewest fantasy points to the position.
I’m out on Mike Gesicki this week. He’s cooled down over the last month or so, and while WRs have feasted on the Titans, TEs have not. They’re another team that’s allowed just 3 TDs to the position, and they’ve allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to TEs.
A few more TEs I’m avoiding this week if I can help it: Evan Engram at the Bears, C.J. Uzomah vs. KC and James O’Shaughnessy at the Patriots. And I’d stay away from all 3 of the Cleveland TEs at the Steelers as it’s impossible to know which one(s) will do anything week to week.
Now go out there and bring home that championship! Good luck to all in Week 17, and check back with the Pigskin Papers for more content as the fantasy season comes to a close (for you, not for me as my league plays all the way through the NFL playoffs) and as we roll into the NFL playoffs.
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DH
