Pigskin Papers Take Two: 2022 Week 15
JJ2K and the Vikings Make History vs. the Colts
(Published December 20, 2022 )
**Follow The Pigskin Papers on Social Media on Instagram (@thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers)***
Happy Holidays to all, and welcome to another edition of “Take Two”. What a weekend! Between an epic World Cup final on Sunday morning and an absolutely insane slate of NFL nail-biters played out over 5 days, there was barely time for football fans to catch their breath. How crazy of an NFL weekend was it? We’ll get into it shortly, but consider this: 12 of the 16 games were decided by one score (tied for most all time in a single week) and the 12 point margin of victory in the Monday night game was the largest spread of the week. A season-high 3 games went to OT (it should have been 4, more on that in a second), and in 4 others the winning points came in the final 2 minutes of regulation. In 3 of those 4, they came in the final seconds. It was a great weekend of compelling games. There’s a reason the NFL is king.
Let’s start with a quick word about the 2 games everyone is talking about. Just when you thought the NFL had nothing new to show us, the Vikings erased a 33-0 halftime deficit on Saturday afternoon and came back to win 39-36 in OT. It was the biggest comeback in the roughly 100 years that the NFL has been around.
A day later, things got even crazier. The Raiders and Patriots appeared to be headed to OT, knotted at 24 with just 3 seconds remaining on the clock and the Patriots well beyond FG range. What followed was one of those plays that will immediately become part of NFL lore, and not in a good way. The Raiders walked off with the win when Chandler Jones intercepted a lateral from Jakobi Meyers and returned it 48 yards for a TD, in what may have been the single dumbest play since the “Miracle in the Meadowlands” in 1978, when Joe Pisarcik’s botched handoff to Larry Csonka in the closing seconds of a game the Giants led was scooped up by the Eagles’ Herman Edwards and run in for the winning score. It was certainly the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen from a team coached by Bill Belichick, and I’m guessing Raiders’ HC Josh McDaniels was thinking the same thing as he shook his mentor’s hand after that decisive play ended the contest.
Those were just 2 of the standout moments from a bizarre, action-packed, and pivotal Week 15. Meanwhile, a number of teams that appeared to be out of it a few weeks ago are still very much alive for a playoff berth, while a few others who looked like sure things are now either on the outside looking in, or barely holding on .
There’s a lot to discuss this week, so let’s get to it. As a reminder, this is the format: Take One will be a series of takeaways and observations from Week 15, and Take Two will be an another edition of Fun Facts and Stats of the Week.
WEEK 16 FANTASY WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-16
The Pats Have to be Jonesing for a Do-Over
TAKE 1 - WEEK 15 TAKEAWAYS
A few weeks ago, after he got hurt late in the season for the second straight year, I asked if Lamar Jackson might be regretting not signing a deal before the season. Watching the Ravens’ offense without him begs the opposite question. In the almost 3 full games that Jackson has missed, the Ravens have scored a grand total of 29 points. To be fair, they weren’t exactly spinning the scoreboard with Jackson under center. After scoring more than 30 points in both Weeks 2 and 3, the Ravens haven’t crested that total since. This is an unimaginative, plodding offense that lacks playmakers. They desperately need Jackson to return.
The Jaguars and Lions were among the very worst teams in the NFL in 2021. The evidence: They had the first 2 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Well, don’t look now but both of these teams are very much alive for a playoff spot. The 7-7 Lions were once 1-6, but have won 6 of 7, and the 6-8 Jags, who at one point lost 5 in a row, have won 3 of their last 4, with the only loss being to the Lions. Things went swimmingly for both teams this weekend. For the Lions - they beat the Jets, while the Seahawks and Commanders lost. For the Jags - they beat the Cowboys in OT, and got to within one game of the Titans who lost their 4th straight. The Jags play the Titans (at home) in Week 18. A few weeks ago it appeared Tennessee would walk to the AFC south title, but that’s now very much up for grabs. A division title is by far Jacksonville’s best path to the playoffs, but their long-shot wild card chances were also helped by Miami, New England, Baltimore, and the Jets all losing.
The Eagles and 49ers are very clearly the top 2 teams in the NFC, with a wide gulf to whoever is next behind them. San Francisco is winning with a suffocating defense and a highly efficient offense, and Philly is winning with a relentless pass rush and a QB who can destroy you in multiple ways. Jalen Hurts got hurt this weekend - thankfully, the 13-1 Eagles can use the next week or two to allow him to heal up.
In the AFC, the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals have separated themselves from the pack, and the Chargers are hitting their stride. The rest of the AFC hopefuls are all stumbling of late, creating a chaotic push for the wild card spots. I’m not sure I can handle 3 more weeks of Steve Kornacki’s big board.
It was impossible for all 4 NFC South teams to lose this week, because 2 of them played each other. But 3 of them lost. Nobody appears to want to win this division. The 6-8 Bucs lead the other 3 teams by 1 game. The winner of this atrocious division somehow gets to host a playoff game.
The Texans have to be the most competitive 1-12-1 team in history. A week after almost beating the 9-3 Cowboys, they took the 10-3 Chiefs to OT. This team is playing hard for Lovie Smith.
Lost in the Patriots’ ridiculous loss to the Raiders is something I’ve talked about each of the last 2 weeks. Once again, the offense shares the blame for blowing a late lead. The Pats had the ball, up 7, with about 3 minutes left. A first down would’ve made a comeback highly improbable. But the Pats promptly went 3 and out and the Raiders got the ball back with enough time to drive the field on the defense, and get the 7 points they needed to tie it up (I’ll spare you the gory details of the controversy around the game-tying TD - let’s just say it was a curious result). And of course, the Pats’ offense then gave up the winning points, so they’re already getting blamed anyway.
The Meyers fumble immediately enters Boston sports lore, alongside Mookie Wilson’s grounder rolling between Bill Buckner’s legs and everything else that’s part of the fabric and history of one of America’s truly great sports towns. The Buckner play was in a much more important game, but there are similarities worth noting, because memories fade, and years from now, the common refrain for this Patriots’ loss will be similar to the Buckner play: That the blunder (one physical, one mental) cost the team a win. However, in both cases, the game was tied. Both blunders led directly to a loss, but didn’t necessarily rob the team of a win. In each case, winning the game was roughly a 50/50 proposition absent the error. Moreover, history will remember Buckner and Meyers as the goats in these 2 games, but in both cases very bad decisions by the manager/coaches put these players in positions to fail that they never should’ve been in. There’s plenty of blame to go around for the fateful play that ended the LV-NE game.
The Giants and Commanders just played 2 games in 3 weeks (for the Commanders, these were consecutive games, with their bye week sandwiched in between). The first game ended in a 20-20 tie, and in the second game the Commanders trailed 20-12 in the final minute, with the ball at the Giants’ 1 yard line. It sure looked like we were going to be a 2-point try away from another 20-20 score at the end of regulation. But after an illegal formation penalty, followed by a non-call on a pretty obvious DPI, the Giants escaped the nation’s capitol with a crucial win.
The Swiss Army Knife Joins the Giff
TAKE 2 - FACTS AND STATS OF THE WEEK
Every team in the NFC East is over .500, and every team in the NFC South is under .500.
No team in the AFC East is under .500, and no team in the AFC South is over .500.
The teams in the AFC South and NFC South are a combined 23-55 in non-division games.
Justin Fields has recorded the 4th 1,000 yard rushing season by a QB. The other 3: Michael Vick (2006) and Lamar Jackson (2019, 2020).
Fields has 70+ rushing yards in 5 straight games, the longest such streak since at least 1950.
Jalen Hurts, with 2 more rushing TDs in Week 15, now has 12 on the season. The record for a QB is 14, by Cam Newton in his rookie year (2011).
Jerick McKinnon in December and January regular season games, 2021 and 2022: 4 games played, 6 total TDs.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, Part I: The Vikings’ record breaking 33 point comeback broke the old record by a single point - The Bills’ epic playoff comeback against the Houston Oilers (now the Tennessee Titans), January 3, 1993 (trailed 35-3, won 41-38 in OT). The Bills’ QB who engineered that comeback? Backup Frank Reich (playing for the injured Jim Kelly), who was the Colts’ HC until a few weeks ago. It’s the circle of life…
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, Part II: Matt Ryan is now the QB on the losing end of the biggest-ever Super Bowl comeback (28-3, lost 34-28) and the biggest-ever regular season comeback (33-0, lost 39-36).
Over their last 2 games, the Colts have been outscored 55-0 in the 4th quarter.
The Vikings’ (11-3) point differential: Before Week 15: -1, at halftime of Week 15: -34, after Week 15: +2.
The Vikings turned the ball over on downs 3 times, had a punt blocked and returned for a TD, threw an INT that was returned for a TD, threw a second INT, tried a fake punt that failed, lost a fumble, punted 6 times, and won. I could go on about this game, but you get it…
Justin Jefferson has 23 100 yard games so far in his career, tying Randy Moss for the most in the first 4 seasons of a career. Jefferson is in his 3rd season.
Jefferson needs 377 yards over his last 3 games (about 126 yards per game) to become the first receiver to reach 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Jefferson is averaging 116 receiving yards per game.
Kirk Cousins had one 300 yard passing game in the Vikings’ first 12 games. He threw for more than 400 yards in each of their last 2 games.
Including playoffs, Taysom Hill now has 21 rushing TDs, 10 passing TDs, and 11 receiving TDs in his career. The last player to reach double digits in all 3 categories was Giants’ Hall of Famer Frank Gifford, who played from 1952-1964.
The Vikings are 10-0 in 1 score games.
The Commanders played the Giants in Week 13, had a bye in Week 14, and faced them again in Week15. That’s just the second time in the last 30 years that an NFL team played consecutive games against the same opponent in the regular season. The other time occurred last season, when the Browns played the Ravens, had a bye, and then played the Ravens again.
The Raiders scored 13 points in the final 32 seconds of the 4th quarter, en route to their improbable win.
Ezekiel Elliott has scored at least 1 rushing TD in each of his last 7 games played.
T.J. Watt recorded his 75th career sack in his 84th game. Only Reggie White (65 games) and older brother J.J. Watt (82 games) have gotten to 75 career sacks faster (sacks became an official stat in 1982).
Brock Purdy is one of only 2 QBs to have a QB Rating of 115 or higher in his first 2 career starts (the other is Aaron Rodgers).
Only 13 of 32 NFL teams have started the same QB in all 14 games this season.
The 49ers ran 61 offensive plays on Thursday night. 34 of them were either a Christian McCaffrey run, or a pass targeted to him.
Tampa Bay is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
The Jaguars’ OT win over the Cowboys broke a 20 game losing streak against NFC teams.
The Giants had an 18 play, 97 yard TD drive that consumed 8:35 of the second quarter.
Justin Herbert is the first player in NFL history with 4,000+ passing yards in each of his first 3 seasons.
Chandler Jones’s punt return as time expired was only the third game winning fumble recovery as time expired in NFL history. The most recent was by another Raider, TE Dave Casper, in the 1978 “Holy Roller” game.
There have only been 3 punt return TDs this season. Two of them were against the Jets.
Tom Brady came into this week with an 89-0 record in home games where his team led by 17+ points. That record now stands at 89-1.
Brady now has 8 losses in a season for the first time in his 23-year career. Brady has never been the starting QB on a team with a losing record, but the Bucs will need to win out to avoid that happening for the first time.
Mike Tomlin still has a shot at preserving his record of being .500 or better in every season he’s been an NFL Head Coach. The 6-8 Steelers need to win out in order to avoid a losing season.
A.J. Brown had 181 receiving yards against the Bears, and he and teammate Devonta Smith combined for more than 300 receiving yards on Sunday. Brown’s yardage total on Sunday was the 6th highest total of the season. The top 5 single-game receiving yardage totals this season all belong to either Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill.
The Eagles have 19 sacks in their last 3 games, and a league-leading 55 on the season. They have 3 players with at least 9.5 sacks. Constantly playing with the lead definitely helps.
Current winning streaks of 4 or more: 49ers (7), Bengals (6), Eagles (5), Bills (5).
Current losing streaks of 4 or more (A/K/A, bad times in the AFC South): Texans (9), Bears (7), Titans (4), Colts (4), Cardinals (4).
From 2018-2021 (4 seasons), Aaron Rodgers had a TD-INT ratio of 136-15. In 2022, Rodgers has a TD-INT ratio of 23-10.
The Packers have won 14 straight games in December, the 3rd longest December winning streak in NFL history.
Before this week, the last time the Bills (first place) and Dolphins (second place) faced each other after Thanksgiving with the 2 teams occupying the top 2 spots in the AFC East standings was 1993. This stat is more about the Patiots than anything else.
On the season, the Dolphins have a 5 game winning streak, a 3 game winning streak, and 2 separate 3 game losing streaks.
6 days after he was forced to leave the Monday night game with an ankle injury, Rhamondre Stevenson led all NFL rushers in Week 15 with 172 rushing yards (on 19 carries).
Josh Allen has at least 2 TD passes in all 10 of his career games vs. Miami. That ties the longest streak in NFL history for any QB against any team (Dan Marino vs. Jets, 1991-96).
Josh Allen now has 50+ wins and 150+ TD passes in his first 5 seasons. The only other QB in NFL history to have done that is Patrick Mahomes.
Tua now has 7 TD passes of 40+ yards this season, tying Dan Marino’s team record (1984, 1986). Over his first 2 seasons, Tua had thrown one TD pass of 40+ yards.
Lionel Messi is the first footballer ever to score a goal in the World Cup Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and final (in a single tournament). This is a “football” column folks, plus I’m checking to see if you’re still reading.
And….CUT!
DH
**This column and the Weekly Waiver Wire appear each Monday and Tuesday, and the Weekly Fantasy Preview each Thursday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. You can also follow on Social Media - on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). I appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
