Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 16
Old Man Winter is Here for the Fantasy Playoffs
(Published December 22, 2022, updated Saturday morning, December 24, 2022 for the latest injury and weather news )
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HAPPY HOLIDAYS to all of my readers and welcome to Week 16! If you made it out of Round 1 of the Fantasy Playoffs, congrats. It was a crazy week, to be sure.
Due to the holidays, this is a slightly condensed column, jam-packed with the information you need for this round of the fantasy playoffs. So let’s get to it.
*****Check out all the Pigskin Papers content from this week*****
WEEK 16 WAIVER WIRE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-16
WEEK 15 TAKEAWAYS: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-two-2022-week-15 .
WEEK 16 BYES: None
*****SATURDAY UPDATE*****
WEATHER REPORT:
Weather is a MAJOR story for NFL games this week. In case you haven’t heard, a massive storm hit most of the continental US and in its wake, frigid temperatures and leftover winds are on tap for the weekend. Most of the NFL slate plays today, Saturday (Christmas Eve), when temperatures will be at their lowest, and winds still be significant in some places. Below are UPDATED FORECASTS the the EIGHT trouble spots for today (weather isn’t an issue for the 3 Sunday games).
The worst weather is in CHI and CLE, but to varying degrees the weather is going to impact these 8 games and especially the passing and kicking games. I’ll discuss this more in the Rides, Fades and Sleepers, but fantasy managers need to be factoring weather into lineup decisions.
BUF@CHI: 6 degrees at kickoff, winds 20-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH
NO@CLE: 9 degrees at kickoff, winds 20-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH
LV@PIT: 12 degrees at kickoff, winds 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH
ATL@BAL: 15 degrees at kickoff, winds 15 MPH with gusts to 25-30 MPH
DET@CAR: 25 degrees at kickoff, winds 10 MPH
SEA@KC: 12 degrees at kickoff, winds 10-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH
CIN@NE: 19 degrees at kickoff, winds 10-15 MPH
HOU@TEN: 18 degrees at kickoff, winds light
INJURY REPORT:
Players already declared OUT for Week 16:
QBs OUT: J. Hurts (G. Minshew gets the start), L. Jackson (T. Huntley gets another start), R. Tannehill (M. Willis gets the start), C. McCoy (T. McSorley gets the start)
Others OUT: Deebo, C. Olave, T. Lockett, D. Parker, J. Landry, B. Skowronek, E. St. Brown, N. Collins (IR), D. Duvernay (IR), H. Hurst
Expected to Play: T. Huntley, N. Chubb, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, J. Meyers, B. Cooks, T.Y. Hilton, C. Beasley, N. Fant
GTD: D. Harris
******
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: 1. KC (29), 2. MIA (27), 3. MIN (25.75), 4. DAL (25.5), 5. LAC (25.25)
Bottom 5: 1. NO (14.5), 2. ATL (15) 3. CHI (15.5), T4. WAS (16), T4. HOU (16)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. SF 3. PHI 4. HOU 5. NYJ
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DET 2. MIA 3. KC 4. TEN 5. JAX
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. TEN 4. BAL 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. SEA 3. CLE 4. LAC 5. NYG
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. NYJ 3. SEA 4. HOU 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. TEN 2. DET 3. PIT 4. MIN 5. ATL
Top 5 vs TE: 1. BUF 2. DAL 3. WAS 4. NO 5. CHI
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. MIA 4. ATL 5. DET
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, Ekeler, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
It’s Been a Rough Stretch, but Ride the GOAT in Arizona this Week
Week 16 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, and Allen, the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Herbert (@IND) - Kirk Cousins completely devoured this defense in the second half last week, and I don’t think the Colts have much left in the tank after that embarrassing loss. Herbert and the Chargers are rolling, and this game is safely indoors.
Other Rides:
Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG) - For the 3rd straight week, Cousins makes the Rides list. He’s delivered and has gone over 400 yards in 2 straight. I don’t expect that, but the Giants have been vulnerable lately and Cousins is red-hot.
Tom Brady (@ARI) - For once, this offense is going to look good, against a bad defense that’s reeling and that has allowed 25 TD passes already this year.
Geno Smith (@KC) - Weather is a concern, as is the absence of Tyler Lockett, but the Chiefs’ pass defense is weak. They’ve allowed a league-worst 30 TD passes and the 3rd most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs. Seattle will need to score to keep up, in a game they desperately need.
Tua and Aaron Rodgers (same game, in Miami) - This game figures to be pretty high scoring, and won’t be impacted by weather.
Daniel Jones (@MIN) - The Vikings pass defense has been a problem all year. They’re one of 2 teams that’s already allowed more than 4,000 passing yards, and they’ve allowed the 7th most FPPG to QBs. This game being indoors is a plus.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Brock Purdy (vs. WAS) - Why not? He’s thrown 2 TD passes in each game he’s played, isn’t making mistakes, and the Commanders are a favorable matchup.
Other Sleepers: G. Minshew (@DAL) - It’s a low confidence call, but there are not a lot of good sleeper options at QB this week. Minshew is one of the league’s best backups.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Deshaun Watson - He hasn’t gotten to 20 fantasy points in any of his 3 starts, and it won’t get any easier this week in very cold and windy conditions, against a pretty good Saints’ defense.
Other Fades:
Derek Carr (@PIT) - The Steelers have been much better against the pass of late, and this is another game where weather is likely to depress passing totals.
Trevor Lawrence (@NYJ) - He’s the hottest QB on the planet right now, but the matchup at the Jets is a rough one (5th fewest FPPG to QBs, and only 13 passing TDs allowed, second best behind Denver’s 12), plus the weather is going to be wet and windy. You’re probably starting Lawrence if you’ve ridden his success the last few weeks, but temper expectations.
Jared Goff (@CAR) - Road Jared has been pretty mediocre all season, and the Panthers are fairly stingy against the pass.
Taylor Heinicke (@SF) - No thanks.
Dalvin Cooks the Colts with a Vintage Catch-and-Run TD
RB:
Elite Options - Henry, McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Jacobs. The analysis starts after these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Dalvin Cook - Did you see his 64 yard catch-and-run TD last week? Wow. Dalvin has stayed healthy this year and is quietly having a very good, top-10 season, and the Giants are very generous to RBs (5th most FPPG allowed).
Other Rides:
Najee Harris - It’s a tasty matchup with the Raiders, who are bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to RBs and just gave up 172 yards to Rahmondre Stevenson. It’s going to be cold and windy, and both starting RBs should be very busy in this one.
Jerick McKinnon - It’s impossible to ignore how productive he’s been the last few weeks, or how heavy his usage has been in the passing game. He’s the RB1 over the past 2 weeks. Yes, there’s the danger that he goes back to getting less than 10 touches per game, but against a generous Seattle defense (2nd most FPPG to RBs), it’s a risk worth taking.
Ken Walker, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery - All have good matchups and/or what’s likely to be a good game script this week. One caution on Montgomery is the likely return of Khalil Herbert. But it’s going to be freezing and windy, so both teams should be pounding it.
RB Sleeper of the Week: Lat Murray. Cam Akers is an OK sleeper in the same game, if you’re stuck at RB. Other sleepers to consider: Isiah Pacheco, Devin Singletary, and A.J. Dillon.
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: D’Onta Foreman. We’ve got 2 converging trends here - decreasing usage (and effectiveness) for Foreman the last few weeks, and the Lions suddenly becoming a very tough run defense. Foreman is hard to trust this week, with your fantasy season in the balance.
Other Fades:
Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson - The 49ers are a brutal matchup. They’ve allowed the fewest yards and FPPG to RBs, and only 5 total TDs to the position all year.
Joe Mixon - He won’t be terrible, and you’re starting him if you have him, but New England has only allowed 4 total TDs to RBs all year (and the second fewest FPPG). Don’t expect a big game from him.
CP84 - Tyler Allgeier out-touched him last week, and I think the coaching staff wants to feature the rookie more. Plus the Ravens are a very tough matchup for RBs, and especially since they added Roquan Smith. They’ve only allowed 2 total TDs to RBs since Week 8.
DK is in a Smash Spot for Round 2 of the Fantasy Playoffs
WR:
Elite Options: Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Diggs, and Chase. The analysis starts after these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: D.K. Metcalf (@KC) - The cold and windy weather makes me nervous, but this is a big spot for Metcalf. Without Lockett on the field, he figures to get heavily targeted, and the Chiefs are an excellent matchup (they’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs, and the most TDs (19) to the position). Throw in that the Seahawks will probably be playing from behind and it’s a good formula for volume and production.
Other Rides:
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Yup, both of them, against a Colts’ defense that just allowed the Vikings’ top 3 WRs to catch 3 TD passes and about 300 yards worth of throws - in the second half.
Jaylen Waddle (vs. GB) - He was rediscovered last week, and I expect him to be very involved again this week.
Chris Godwin (@ARI) - He’s been pretty consistent of late, and you know I like the Bucs’ offense to finally look efficient in this one. Plus, it’s a nice matchup.
ARSB (@CAR) - I think Goff will struggle to get the ball to his perimeter receivers, but not his trusted slot guy.
JuJu (vs. SEA) - Mahomes, and the Seahawks’ pass D. I’ll leave the analysis at that.
Jerry Jeudy (@LAR) - He’s in a nice spot to produce this week.
WR Sleeper of the Week: Darius Slayton (@MIN) - I like Big Play Slay against this defense, which has allowed the most completions, second most passing yards, and 4th most FPPG to WRs. Look for Danny Dimes to take a couple of deep shots with him.
Other Sleepers: Marquise Goodwin (@KC), Chris Moore (@TEN), and Josh Palmer (@IND).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Amari Cooper - I’m a fan, but Cooper has fallen on hard times. He’s been slowed by a hip injury and hasn’t found a connection yet with Deshaun Watson. He’s had just 10 catches for 140 yards and 0 TDs in the 3 games since Watson took over at QB. The Saints aren’t an easy defense and the weather is going to be a challenge. Pass.
Other Fades:
Hollywood Brown (vs. TB) - He’s been very quiet since his return from injury, and now third stringer Trace McSorley is the QB. No Thanks. If you have Nuk Hopkins you’re playing him, and maybe he’ll get force-fed, but I don’t feel great about him either.
Gabe Davis (@CHI) - The matchup is good on paper. Philly’s top 2 wideouts went for over 300 yards combined against the Bears last week, and they’ve been vulnerable all year. But at this point it’s impossible to trust Davis, who is boom or bust to begin with and lately it’s been only bust. Chicago is going to have the most frigid weather of any NFL game location this weekend, with wind, which might make passing difficult and especially the long passing game where Davis excels. Your fantasy season hangs in the balance. Pass.
Titans’ WRs (vs. HOU) - This bunch doesn’t do much to begin with. With Malik Willis likely under center, and Derrick Henry doing his usual thing against the Texans, I don’t expect to see much activity for the wideouts. Even if Treylon Burks is back, I’d stay away. The Texans also happen to be very stingy to WRs. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to receivers and a league-low 5 TD catches to WRs.
Brandon Aiyuk (vs. WAS) - In theory, Deebo’s absence should benefit him, but in practice, the offense is running through CMC, with a little Kittle sprinkled in. The 49ers are going to keep going with what works, with their rookie QB. The ceiling is pretty low for Aiyuk right now.
Allen Lazard (@MIA) - Laard still has a role in this offense and is always a threat in the red zone, but the 2 rookies have surpassed him as Aaron Rodgers’s top targets. In his last 5 outings, Lazard hasn’t scored, nor has he had more than 5 catches or 67 yards in a game, as Watson has taken over the alpha role. He’s another player who is tough to trust with your fantasy season on the line.
Two more WRs I’d avoid: Jakobi Meyers (vs. CIN) and Curtis Samuel (@SF).
Hey Ravens - Remember this Guy???
TE:
Elite Option: Kelce. Yup, just him.
TE Ride of the Week: Mark Andrews - Andrews hasn’t scored since the middle of October, and has been very average (at best) since he returned from injury 5 weeks ago. So this is a bit risky. I’d feel better about this call if Lamar was going to play. The Ravens’ offense is broken and I think they have to do what they can to get their best passing game weapon more involved and especially with Duvernay now on IR. The Falcons allow the 4th most FPPG to Tight Ends. I think a big Andrews game is on tap - finally.
Rides and Sleepers:
Taysom Hill - He was my TE Sleeper of the Week last week and he delivered with a long TD pass. What will it be this week? A TD run? Catch? He can do it all and the Saints are finding ways to get him involved. Mark Ingram’s absence is also a plus. You should find a way to get him into your lineup against a defense that gets gashed on the ground.
Other Rides: George Kittle (vs. WAS), Pat Freiermuth (@PIT), and Darren Waller (@PIT). Yes, I know Freirmuth was held without a catch last week - it can happen. Vegas is a good matchup for TEs and I think they’ll get him involved this week.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Jordin Akins (@TEN). Other sleepers you can consider, if you’re stuck at this very weak position: Cade Otten@ARI (less attractive with he return of Cameron Brate who you can also consider, but this defense can’t defend TEs and allows the most everything to the position), and Robert Tonyan (@MIA).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Cole Kmet - Kmet hasn’t scored in 5 straight games, and the Bills are a tough matchup. They’re the only team in the league that has yet to allow a TE to score, and they’ve yielded the fewest FPPG to the position.
Other Fades:
Mike Gesicki (vs. GB) - He is impossible to trust, and the Packers have allowed the second fewest yards to the position.
Juwan Johnson (@CLE) - He’s been hot, and found the end zone 2 more times this past week, so I can’t blame you for firing him up. It’s a tough matchup (the Browns have only allowed 2 TE scores all year), and I expect a lot of running in this one.
Tyler Higbee (vs. DEN) and Hunter Henry (vs. CIN) - both are tough to rely on.
PK & D/ST: See the Week 16 Waiver Wire column for this week’s top streaming options: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-16 .
Good luck to all this week!
And a special note: I’m now giving 1:1, personalized fantasy advice via live video chat on an app called Didit. Follow my Twitter Feed (@PigskinPapers) where I’ll announce when I’m online and available to chat.
DH
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