Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 6
Hurts and the Eagles are Flying the Highest
(Published October 18, 2022)
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Welcome to another edition of “Take Three”. Each week, I’m giving you 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component.
I’ve got something a little different this week. We’re about 30% of the way through the 2022 season and there are so many interesting and bizarre stats and factoids out there that I’m going to quickly go through my 3 takeaways and then bury you with a boatload of fun facts from Week 6 and the 2022 season. OK? Good. Here we go.
******* See the WEEK 7 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN*****: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-7 .
The Old Grey Dudes Just Ain’t What They Used To Be
WEEK 6 TAKEAWAYS:
Parity Reigns
It’s still a little early, but it looks like there’s one dominant team in each conference (Bills and Eagles), a couple more very good teams in each conference plus one or 2 really weak ones, and then everyone else is decidedly in the middle. It feels like a very large number of NFL teams will finish with anywhere from 7-10 wins. This week had some big upsets and that, plus another batch of close games, again showed how much parity there is in the NFL. I’ll give you one fun fact before we get to the fun facts: More games have been decided by 8 points or less though the first 6 games of this season than in any season in NFL history. I do think the better teams will emerge as November turns to December but for now, watch your wallet as the outcomes of most NFL games are very, VERY hard to predict. The “any given Sunday” mantra is an apt one for this season.
The Old QBs Are Playing Like Old QBs
Coming into the season, the oldest QBs that were listed as the starter on NFL depth charts were Tom Brady (45), Aaron Rodgers (38), Matt Ryan (37), and Matt Stafford (34). Three of those 4 have won at least 1 Super Bowl, and 3 of those 4 have won at least 1 League MVP award. A lot of those accomplishments were fairly recent. Brady, Rodgers and Stafford came into this season with very high expectations (from both an NFL and fantasy football standpoint), on teams that won divisions last year and were consensus Super Bowl contenders. Ryan was expected to come in and lift a good team with a playoff-caliber roster, but a hole at QB.
Through 6 weeks, these 4 QBs have been decidedly bad as a group. Only Ryan, at 3-2-1, is piloting a team with a winning record. None of them has a Total QBR ranking higher than 15. They’ve all underperformed and at the moment, none of them strikes the kind of fear in defenses (and opposing fan bases) that they once did. They’ve all faced issues this season with injured (or subpar) receivers and shaky line play, but in the past that’s something they were all capable of overcoming to a much greater degree than they have so far this season. I also don’t want to get fooled and it would be silly to write any of them off. I won’t be surprised if any of these QBs turns it up a few notches, or turns in some huge games when it matters. For example, Matt Ryan turned in a monster performance in Week 6 and maybe that’s a sign that things are trending up for him. But for now, it sure looks like the changing of the guard has happened, and that almost all of the league’s very best QBs in 2022 are under 30. That’s true from a fantasy perspective as well. Ryan wasn’t drafted to be a fantasy starter this year, but the other 3 were, and they’ve really disappointed so far.
Keep an Eye on New England and Dallas
How many teams can play very good defense, and run the ball effectively on offense? The answer is not that many. Dallas and New England can do both. It’s a simple, tried and true formula that allows a team to stick around in tight games, and put away most opponents when they’re leading. As the league continues to morph back into more traditional trends - longer drives, lower passing totals, and lower scoring (spoiler alert - see the 7th stat below), teams that can grind out wins the way Dallas and New England can have a clear advantage.
Diggs and Allen are on a Heater
STATS AND FUN FACTS - Take from these tidbits what you will. If you have one to add, please leave it in the comments section below - thanks.
Tyreek Hill has 3 games this year (out of 6) with 10+ catches and 150+ receiving yards. That’s half of the 6 such games that have been turned in this year, across the entire league.
Hill is on pace for 143 catches for just over 2,000 yards. The Dolphins have had 3 different QBs start games this year.
Stefon Diggs is on pace for 140 catches for 1,875 yards and 17 TDs.
The Cardinals have trailed at halftime in every game they’ve played this season, and have scored only 2 first half TDs in 6 games.
The Jets and Giants went a combined 8-26 last year. Through 6 weeks, they’ve already eclipsed that total and combined for 9 wins.
The Giants have won 3 games after trailing by at least 10 points. That’s tied for the most in team history for a season. It’s happened 3 other times and in 2 of those 3 seasons, the Giants won the Super Bowl.
In Week 6, 7 QBs won games while throwing for less than 200 yards passing (Mariota, Z. Wilson, Cousins, D. Jones, Hurts, Wentz, G. Smith).
No team in the AFC East is under .500.
No team in the AFC North, NFC West or NFC South is over .500.
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS.
Barkley and the Giants Keep Coming Back
The Cardinals have attempted the most 4th downs (22) through 6 games (the Lions have 18 in 5 games). Of the teams that have played 6 games, NE, ATL and NO have the fewest 4th down attempts (3).
Daniel Carlson has made 38 straight FG attempts. The NFL record is 44 (Adam Vinatieri), and 2 other players have had streaks of 40 or more.
The Dolphins started 3-0, then lost 3 straight games and in each of those losses, a different starting QB was knocked out of the game in the first half with an injury.
The most penalized team in the NFL is the Seahawks (50 for 435 yards) and the least penalized team is the Rams (24 for 205 yards). The Seahawks have been flagged for offensive holding 11 times, 3 more than any other team.
D.J. Moore eclipsed 60 yards 9 times in 2021. Through 6 games in 2022 he has yet to have 60 receiving yards in a contest.
The Jets were 1 for 11 on 3rd down at Green Bay on Sunday, and won by 17 points.
In their last 2 games, the Giants beat the 2 QBs who’ve combined to win the last 3 NFL MVP awards.
The Saints have 8 rushing TDs on the season, none of which has been scored by Alvin Kamara (who has missed 2 games). Coming into this season, Kamara had scored 47 rushing TDs during his 5 year NFL career.
Gabe Davis has 17 career TDs on 84 career receptions and 151 career targets. That’s a TD on 20% of his career catches and 11% of his career targets, and doesn’t count his 4-TD effort against the Chiefs in the 2021 playoffs.
In the last 2 weeks, Gabe Davis is averaging 41 yards per catch (6 catches), and scored a TD on 50% of his catches.
Moore is Less: Rondale Moore in 3 games: 16 catches, 128 yards. Elijah Moore in 6 games: 16 catches, 203 yards. D.J. Moore in 6 games: 20 catches, 204 yards.
In last year’s crazy divisional round game, the Chiefs and Bills scored 10 TDs on 20 combined possessions, with zero turnovers. In Sunday’s rematch, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes each turned the ball over on his team’s first possession of the game.
Taysom Hill has 26 rushing attempts in 2022. He’s averaging 10 YPC, and has scored 5 TDs - meaning he’s scored on almost 20% of his carries.
The Eagles have scored 112 points in the 2nd quarter - an average of almost 20 points per 2nd quarter. 10 NFL teams have scored fewer than that total number of points - for the entire season.
The Ravens have lost 3 games where they led by 10 or more points in the second half.
The Raiders and Ravens have each blown 2 games where they led by 17 or more points.
In his last 2 games at the Superdome (This past Sunday, and the 2019 College Championship game), Ja’Marr Chase has this stat line: 16-353-4, all of it thrown by Joe Burrow.
Bill Belichick got career win number 324 on Sunday, tying him with George Halas for second all-time, and trailing only Don Shula (347).
There has only been one Scorigami so far this year - SEA 48-DET 45 in week 4. A Scorigami is a final score that has never happened before in NFL history.
On Sunday, Marcus Mariota became just the second player since 1950 to have a game with 2+ pass TDs, 1 or fewer incompletions, 50+ rush yards, and 1+ rush TD. This feat was also accomplished by Walter Payton in 1983.
Kyle Pitts scored his first NFL TD on U.S. soil on Sunday. His other TD was scored in London.
Matt Stafford has thrown pick sixes in back-to-back games, and the 29 he has thrown for his career is tied for 2nd in the SB era (Dan Marino), and trails only Brett Favre (32).
The Rams do not have a player who is averaging more than 31 rushing yards per game.
Of the 6 WRs that were taken in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Drake London is the only one who has not missed at least one game this season due to injury.
Cooper Kupp failed to score a TD on Sunday, for only the 3rd time in his last 16 games (including playoffs).
Austin Ekeler has 25+ rushing TDs and 25+ receiving TDs in his first 6 seasons, joining Colts great Lenny Moore as the only players to achieve that.
The Jaguars are 0-13 in their last 13 division games on the road.
Stats after 6 games: Geno Smith: 3-3 record, 73.4% completions, 1,502 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTS , 4th in Total QBR. Russell Wilson: 2-4 record, 59% completions, 1,442 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 25th in Total QBR.
The Packers just lost back-to-back games within a season for the first time in Matt Lafleur’s 4 seasons as Head Coach, and they lost those back-to-back games to the two “New York City” teams. The last time a team did that was…? (I think I broke the internet trying to find this; if anyone knows the answer, please post it in the comments below - thanks).
3 NL teams won 100+ games this year - and none of them made it to the NLCS, much less the World Series. Wait, how did a baseball nugget sneak in here? I was just testing to see if you’re still reading.
If you made it to the end, thank you.
And…CUT.
