Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 7
Dak is Back!
(Published October 20, 2022, updated October 23, 2022 for injuries and weather)
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Welcome to NFL Week 7. From a fantasy perspective, the big story this week is the 4 teams that are on Bye: Buffalo, L.A. Rams, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. This isn’t quite the Bye-mageddon of 2021 (Week 7), when 6 teams were on a Bye. This one is less about how many teams have a bye, which is the same number (4) as last week, but who those teams are. The #1 and #3 QBs, #10 RB, #1, #2, #3, #9 and #14 WRs, the #6 and #9 TEs, and the #1 and #5 DSTs are all off this week. That’s a lot of firepower on the sidelines. I’ll try to help you navigate the waters of what is likely to be this year’s toughest bye week.
*** SUNDAY MORNING INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE ***
WEATHER: No significant issues expected. Moderate to strong winds are likely for NYJ@DEN. Scattered showers are possible for GB@WAS, CLE@BAL and CHI@NE (Monday)
INJURY UPDATE
OUT: Russell Wilson (Bryce Rypien gets the start), Wentz (IR), Dobbins (IR), Elijah Moore, Cobb, C. Watson, Toney, J. Jones, J. Palmer, Waller, L. Thomas, C. Brate, Dustin Hopkins
RETURNING FROM INJURY/PLAYING: Dak, Tua, K. Pickett, J. Taylor, N. Hines, D. Harris, G. Edwards, P. Freiermuth
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Mac Jones (Monday), CMC, Lockett, Renfrow, Waddle, Marvin Jones, M. Hollins, Mark Andrews
QUESTONABLE, NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY: D. Swift, Dotson
GTD: K. Allen, R. Bateman
Team Offense Report:
These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. LAC (28.75) 2. DAL (27.75) 3. CIN (26.75) T4. BAL (26.25) T4. LV (26.25)
Bottom 5: 1. CAR (14.75) 2. CHI (16) 3. WAS (18.75) 4. PIT (18.5) 5. HOU (19.75)
Team Defense Report:
Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 5 weeks of games, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. BUF 3. GB 4. SF 5. PHI
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LV 2. KC 3. TEN 4. DET 5. MIA
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. BUF 4. LAR 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. DET 3. CLE 4. LAC 5. SEA
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. NYG 3. IND 4. SF 5. ARI
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT 2. TEN 3. WAS 4. KC 5. NO
Top 5 vs TE: 1. LAR 2. NO 3. DAL 4. WAS. 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. LV 3. ARI 4. ATL 5. MIN
WEEK 7 BYES: BUF, LAR, MIN, PHI
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Barkley, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers had a decidedly mediocre showing in Week 6. Correct calls barely outnumbered incorrect ones. But the analysis was sound! I’ll keep telling myself that and will try to do a much better job this week. For those who want to check my work - here is Week 6: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-6 . Enough about last week - let’s hit Week 7. Here we go, the Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
Dak isn’t the Only QB Who is Back - Stay Safe, #1
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Justin Herbert is a green light special this week, vs. the Seahawks at home. But he’s ranked too high (QB3 for the week) and is too obvious a play for this exercise, so I’ll take a slight risk on a returning player who may not be 100%. Dak is back, and it’s a soft landing on re-entry, at home against a toothless Lions’ defense that’s been just about as bad as it gets. They’ve allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs, and they’re dead last in the league in overall defense, giving up almost 430 yards per game. Dak is my QB Ride of the Week.
Aaron Rodgers was one of the calls I got wrong last week, so naturally I’m back for more. The Packers desperately need a win, and their offense needs a good game as well. The good news is they travel to Washington. Only the Chiefs have allowed more TD passes than the Commanders, who’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to QBs.
Speaking of old QBs that let me down last week, I’ll also ride Tom Brady again this week, at the Panthers. I’m stubborn…this HAS to be the week he gets it going, right?
Tua is another risky play this week, but I’m going there. The Dolphins are home, they need a win, and other than last week’s surprising performance against Tampa, the Steelers’ pass D has been a sieve. I don’t see them being able to contain Miami’s speedy wideouts. They’ve allowed the 8th most fantasy points to QBs and are still very banged up on D. I’ll ride Tua, but understand that the risk of re-injury is real.
Moving down the ranks, a few QB2s worth considering this week (if you need a QB2 in a Superflex, or a fill-in for a QB on bye) are Jimmy G vs. the Chiefs (who’ve allowed the most TD passes and the second most fantasy points to QBs), Matt Ryan at Tennessee, and assuming he starts, Bailey Zappe vs. the Bears. Zappe is ranked outside the top 20 and I’ll make him the QB Sleeper of the Week. [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE - nothing official yet, but Mac Jones is expected to be active for this one and presumably, to start. I’ll make whichever NE QB starts my QB Sleeper of the Week)
If you’re really stuck, or want to throw a dart in DFS with a deeper sleeper, I don’t hate Davis Mills this week, against a Las Vegas defense that can be had.
Fades:
Geno Smith has been a revelation this year, and he’s now being ranked inside the top 10 on a weekly basis. He failed to throw for 200 yards or a TD last week and I don’t like the matchup at the Chargers, who can bring pressure and have an opportunistic and talented secondary. I don’t expect Geno to completely turn into a pumpkin this week, but I don’t think it will be a good performance and I think that after this week some people will be asking if his first 5 games were a mirage. Geno is my QB Fade of the Week.
Russ Wilson makes this column every week. For one quarter last week, I was nervous that I finally got burned fading Russ, but no, he then proceeded to do next to nothing for 3 quarters plus an OT. The Broncos just don’t look right, and the Jets’ D is vastly improved, as Aaron Rodgers learned last week. [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE - Russ is OUT this week (hamstring)].
I know it’s a tough week with the QBs who are on a bye, and desperate times call for desperate measures, but I’d try hard to avoid starting any of these lower-end QBs this week: Justin Fields at NE, Marcus Mariota at CIN, Jared Goff at DAL, and Z. Wilson vs. DEN. All 4 have difficult matchups.
Which Way to the End Zone?
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
Alvin Kamara has come to life and seems to be over his rib cartilage fracture. With WR injuries continuing to plague the Saints and Andy Dalton more willing to check it down, Kamara is thriving in the passing game. He had 6 catches in each of the last 2 games, to go along with at least 25 touches in each, for a total of around 300 yards from scrimmage. The only thing missing is TDs, and those are coming, hopefully starting this week at Arizona. Kamara is my RB Ride of the Week.
Rhamondre Stevenson was my RB Ride of the Week last week and he delivered the goods, with 90 total yards and 2 TDs. The schedule continues to be favorable for the Pats. Regardless of whether Damien Harris returns, I’m riding Stevenson again against the Bears, who’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to RBs. The game script should very favorable for Rhamondre.
Moving a little further down the rankings, 3 RBs I’m very high on this week (and I’m assuming every other analyst is also) are Josh Jacobs vs. the Texans, Zeke Elliott vs. the Lions, and Kenneth Walker at the Chargers. All 3 of these defenses are among the 4 worst in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs (the Texans are dead last). Giddyup!
Kenyan Drake came out of nowhere last week with 100+ yards and a TD, in relief of J.K. Dobbins who left the game with knee soreness. Even if Dobbins plays this week, I like Drake to significantly outperform his ranking, which is outside the top 35. The Ravens face the Browns, who are the other team that’s in that group of the 4 that have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs. Drake is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
Need another sleeper or two? Let’s go with Latavius Murray at the Jets, and Tony Pollard vs. the Lions.
Fades:
CEH is perhaps the most TD-dependent player in the league. When he doesn't get in the end zone, he’s decidedly average (at best). Last week was a good example. I dfaded him then and I’ll do it again this week. The Chiefs travel to San Francisco, and it’s a bad matchup. The 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs, and that’s true even after playing the Falcons who run the ball as much as any team. CEH is my RB Fade of the Week.
Not-so-fun fact: The Patriots are the only team that hasn’t allowed a single TD to a running back yet this year. David Montgomery is an obvious Fade this week and so is Khalil Herbert - I have a sneaking suspicion that of the 2, Herbert scores more fantasy points this week, but neither one will score enough to be in your lineup.
I’d avoid J.K. Dobbins this week. Even if he plays I think it will be limited touches for him, as the Ravens will try to limit his workload and get him closer to 100% for the stretch run. [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE - Dobbins has been placed on IR (knee) and will miss at least 4 weeks]
A couple of other RBs I’m fading this week are Melvin Gordon at the Jets, and all of the Falcons RBs at the Bengals.
The TD Machine
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
Tyreek Hill is ranked as the WR2 this week, so he’s too obvious a name for this column. But good god - the NFL receiver with the most receiving yards going up against the team that’s allowed the most receiving yards (and fantasy points to WRs)? Hill might be the WR Ride of the Year.
Since Hill doesn't qualify, I'll go with his running mate Jaylen Waddle as my WR Ride of the Week. We’ve already seen these players have big weeks at the same time, and I already told you how vulnerable the Steelers are to the pass.
Question: What WR has scored in 7 of the last 8 regular season games he has played? Easy, you say, it’s Cooper Kupp! Nope. Davante Adams? Closer, but also nope. It’s Allen Lazard. Rodgers trusts him, and looks for his big frame in the red zone. The Commanders have already allowed 8 TDs to WRs this season, to go along with the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Ride Lazard with confidence.
Here are a few higher-end WRs I’m riding this week: ARSB at Dallas, Michael Pittman at Tennessee, Tee Higgins vs. the Falcons, and Amari Cooper at the Ravens. Yup, I like a lot of WRs this week - plenty of good matchups to go around.
Moving down into the 20s in the weekly rankings, let’s go with a couple of guys who’ve disappointed so far this year - Terry McLaurin vs. the Packers (I know, I know, but check out his numbers with Taylor Heinicke under center) and Brandon Cooks at the Raiders.
The Rides just keep coming - staying in the 20s in the rankings, give me Chris Olave at Arizona (assuming he’s back for this one), and Brandon Aiyuk to keep it going against the Chiefs.
It should be no surprise that I also like a few lower-ranked guys. I’ll make Michael Gallup my WR Sleeper of the Week, and a few other sleepers I’m happy to take a swing on this week (if you’re in need) are Alec Pierce at the Titans, Chase Claypool at Miami, and Nico Collins at the Raiders.
Fades:
With so many Rides, I don’t have that many Fades, but I’ll make Courtland Sutton my WR Fade of the Week. Like Russ, he’s just not getting it done, and the Jets are no pushover.
Tyler Lockett has been very solid so far this year, but in keeping with my Fade call on Geno, I’m also fading Lockett this week. I have a bad feeling about this game for Seattle, other than Ken Walker.
JuJu is coming off of his best game of the season, which came in a tough matchup, but this week the matchup is even tougher. The 49ers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to WRs, and I see Mahomes spreading it around a lot in this one. I’ll fade him.
A few more fades: Darnell Mooney at the Patriots, Robert Woods vs. the Colts, and as always…D.J. Moore (against anyone, this week it’s the Bucs).
Njoku has Emerged as a TE1
TE - I’ll preface this section by saying that outside of the “big 2” of Kelce and Andrews, every other TE this week is hard to count on for solid fantasy production and falls into the category of “hope for the best”. The floor is low for almost everyone. That also makes it hard to find “Fades”, as all of the TEs ranked in the top 12 this week are worth putting your lineup, given the choices.
Rides and Sleepers:
I’ll make Gerald Everett my TE Ride of the Week. The Seattle D is bad, but because of the Taysom Hill game you have to throw some of their stats vs. the position out the window - he did his damage as a running back but it counts as TE points. But even if you take that game away, they’ve had issues defending against the position, allowing the second most passing yards to TEs. I like the Chargers in this one, and expect a good game out of Everett. My only hesitation here is the return of Donald Parham (who made his debut last week) and possibly Keenan Allen, but Everett’s role is pretty defined.
Evan Engram is getting very good usage in the Jags’ offense, with a whopping 16 targets in the last 2 games. I’ll ride him against his old team. For the record, I hate the term “revenge game".
I’ll ride another hot hand in David Njoku, who has become a big part of the Browns’ air attack, and emerged as a solid TE1 in fantasy. Njoku has at least 6 targets in 4 straight, and his low yardage total in those 4 games is 58. That’s excellent production for a TE these days, and it’s been consistent. The Ravens have struggled vs. the pass generally, and are middle of the pack against the position.
Taysom Hill is worth getting in your lineup as a TE this week unless you have one of the top 7 or 8 TE options. Taysom is always a big gamble - the weekly floor is low as we saw last week, but that’s true of most TEs, and we’ve seen how high the ceiling can be. For what it’s worth, the Cardinals have allowed the most catches and yards to TEs, but that’s pretty irrelevant where Hill is concerned.
Juwan Johnson is the Saints player who actually plays the TE position, and he’s my TE Sleeper of the Week this week. I already gave you the lowdown on how bad the Cardinals are at defending against the position, and with Landry and Thomas out again, the opportunity for targets and catches is there.
If you’re desperate, another sleeper to consider is rookie Greg Dulcich of the Broncos, who made his debut last week and saw a 71% snap share to go along with 2 catches for 44 yards and a TD, on 3 targets. That usage should grow, and especially with the Broncos struggling so much to move the chains and sustain drives. Don’t be surprised if within a few weeks, Dulcich is ranked within the top 15 at the position each week. This week, he’s in the mid 20s. I like him in DFS this week.
Fades:
Robert Tonyan had a huge game last week, and I’m high on Aaron Rodgers this week, so why oh why is Tonyan my TE Fade of the Week? In part because as noted above it’s hard to find a TE to fade in the top 12, and in part because I think Rodgers will have an easier time getting the ball to his WRs and RBs this week, and won’t need to rely so much on Tonyan. Before last week, Tonyan hadn’t exceed 5 targets or 40 yards in a game, so there’s a real chance that last week’s outburst was an outlier, in a game where the Jets mostly locked down the Packers’ wideouts.
You’re almost certainly starting T.J. Hockenson if you have him, but temper expectations against a Dallas defense that hasn’t yet allowed a TE to score, and is top 5 in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Two more fades for this week: Daniel Bellinger at the Jaguars, and Logan Thomas vs. the Packers. [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE - Thomas is OUT today]
PK and DST: See the Week 7 Waiver Wire column for streamer suggestions at these 2 positions: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-7 .
Good luck to all in Week 7.
DH
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