Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 5
Stock Up: Dallas D; Stock Down: Rams O
(Published October 11, 2022)
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Welcome to another edition of “Take Three”. Each week, I’m giving you 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component.
******* See the WEEK 6 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN*****: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-6
Before we get to this week’s takeaways, please bear with me for 2 quick rants:
Brady, meet Grady. Oh, wait…
Why are the Broncos in prime time 4 of the first 6 weeks? Even if they were a good, well-coached team (they aren’t), or if Russ was playing well (he isn’t), no team should be in prime time 4 times in a 6 week stretch. This is a bad job by the NFL schedule makers. The fact that the Broncos have been borderline unwatchable just makes it worse. I’m not going to lie - at halftime of Colts at Broncos, I put on the first episode of “Dahmer,” watched it, and then switched back to the football game. Dahmer was less gruesome, and more fun to watch.
I guess the newest NFL rule is that sacking 45 year old Tom Brady is a penalty. Nothing ruins an NFL game more than a terrible call by the refs that effectively ends the contest, but that’s exactly what happened when Jerome Boger flagged Grady Jarrett for a roughing the passer penalty after a clean sack of Brady. Instead of the Falcons getting the ball back, down 6 and with enough time to drive for the win, the Bucs got a fresh set of downs and the game was all but over. It was without question the worst call of the season so far (when you factor in the circumstances), and Boger’s attempt to defend the call after the game was embarrassing. Jarrett didn’t throw Brady - his momentum couldn’t have been stopped and he did exactly what a defender should do in that situation. It’s tackle football, and QBs can escape a half-assed hit. That call sucked and the NFL should do the right thing and admit it was a blown call, while apologizing to the Falcons.
Turns out this wasn’t a fluke. On Monday night, the refs made another horrendous RTP call on Chris Jones, negating a potentially game-changing strip-sack-fumble that was recovered by the Chiefs. The Raiders retained possession and kicked a FG on the drive. The NFL needs to address this. Protecting QBs from unnecessary roughness to avoid injuries is fine. Making it impossible to tackle one of the players on the field - and in the process potentially changing the outcome of games - isn’t. If the rule is poorly written, fix it. If replay would help, consider it.
OK…On to this week’s takeaways:
1. Cooper Kupp is on an All-Time Heater. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cooper Kupp has played in 26 games, including playoffs. During that stretch, he’s caught 227 passes for 2,952 yards and 26 TDs, on 297 targets. His average game during this stretch is roughly 9-115-1. 26 games is a lot - it’s a season and a half of football. Wow. Jerry Rice put up astronomical numbers for about a decade, and he’s the gold standard at the position. In the years since, and as the game has continued to evolve towards more passing, some other WRs (Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, and Davante Adams) have put up huge receiving totals over much shorter spans. Kupp’s last 26 games are comparable to, or better than, just about any 26 game stretch you can find from these receivers.
The numbers made more sense last season, when Stafford was playing really well and the entire offense was humming. Stafford finished last year as the QB4 in Total QBR (and the QB8 in fantasy points) and the Rams ranked 9th in total offense. This year, Kupp’s dominance is harder to fathom because the offense, and Stafford, have been decidedly bad. Through 5 games, Stafford is the QB18 in Total QBR (and the QB23 in fantasy points) and the Rams rank 26th in total offense, and have made the fewest first downs in the entire league. That’s more than just a Super Bowl hangover. Their line can’t protect Stafford, they can’t run the ball, and they haven’t found reliable options beyond Kupp and TE Tyler Higbee. Their entire offense this year has been Kupp, who has more than a third of the team’s total yards from scrimmage. Teams know he’s getting force-fed the ball, but it doesn’t matter. Stafford locks in on him (and especially when he’s under duress, which is often), and once Kupp has the ball in his hands he’s a dangerous runner. In their first 5 games, the Rams have faced the 3 best defenses in the NFL in Buffalo, SF, and Dallas (more on that trio below), and while those units stymied Stafford and the Rams, Kupp still got his. He’s on pace for a slightly higher catch number than last year’s 145, and he’s scored 5 TDs in 5 games. When a player is operating at this rarified level, it’s fun to watch, and important to appreciate it for what it is while it’s happening.
FANTASY IMPACT:
Kupp was a consensus top 5 pick in fantasy drafts this year, and you don’t typically see a WR going in the top 5. The top 5 picks are almost always RBs. So far, he has paid off at ADP, which is a lot more than you can say for a bunch of RBs who were taken in the first round. Kupp’s weekly floor is probably the highest of any position player in the entire league, and his production shows no signs of slowing down. The Rams’ schedule gets a little easier, which should benefit the entire offense as it tries to repair itself. If you’re lucky enough to have Kupp, enjoy the production. The one concern is his ability to stay healthy with such high target and catch volume, and running so many routes. But so far, so good. Meanwhile, Stafford is a risky start until things improve.
2. Three Defenses are Emerging as Dominant.
One of my takeaways last week was the the 49ers have the best defense in football. They had another strong performance this week, but unfortunately lost several of their defensive starters to injury. We’ll see how that impacts them. Meanwhile, 2 other defenses (Dallas and Buffalo) have also been dominant in the early season. The stats back this up. Neither Dallas nor SF has given up more than 20 points in any of its 5 games. Buffalo and SF have each yielded just 61 points in 5 games, which is best in the NFL, and Dallas is next best, having allowed just 72. SF and Dallas rank 1-2 in sacks (Buffalo is 6th) and Buffalo is tied for the league lead in takeaways. You can look at all sorts of other stats and you’ll find these 3 defenses at or near the top. But beyond the statistics, these 3 defenses pass the eye test, with talent at all 3 levels. Dallas has the league’s most disruptive defensive force in second year standout Micah Parsons, who has quickly become one of those rare defenders who can wreck a game all by himself. Dallas plays Philadelphia next week while Buffalo plays the Chiefs, so both defenses are about to be tested.
FANTASY IMPACT:
These are stingy defenses, and we’ll soon see how “matchup-proof” they are as fantasy DSTs. None of the 3 has yielded a lot of big games to individual players so far this year, other than Kupp who pretty much did his usual thing against all 3, as noted above. All 3 defenses are in the top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs, and in many cases they’re top 5. You aren’t sitting your studs against any of them, but below that, all 3 are matchups worth avoiding when you’ve got other decent options and especially for QBs, as these are 3 of the 4 stingiest defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. This can all change of course, but for now, temper your expectations when you see one of these 3 defenses on the schedule.
3. The NY Teams Are Coming Out of the NFL Wilderness
If you’d told me before the season that in Week 5, the Giants would travel to London and beat Aaron Rodgers and the 3-1 Packers, I would’ve asked you to give me some of what you were smoking. The only part I would’ve believed was that the Packers were 3-1 after 4 games. Over the past 3 regular seasons, the Packers posted the best record in the NFL, at 39-10. The Giants? Not so much, as they went 14-35 over that same stretch - one of the very worst marks in the league. The team they share a stadium with, the Jets, were even worse, at 13-36. Only the Jaguars (10 wins) and Lions (11) had worse records. It’s been a depressing stretch for NY football, and it’s longer than just the last 3 seasons. The Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, and the Giants last went to the post-season in 2016. Sad times in NY and at the Meadowlands.
I can hear the Bills Mafia yelling all the way from upstate NY. Yes, I know that the Bills are the only NFL team that actually plays its home games in my home state of NY. OK fine, I’ll discuss the Bills for a second. They’re really, really good, and have been for the last couple of years. Their complete dismantling of a bad Steelers team on Sunday was almost as impressive as their total demolition of the Patriots in last year’s playoffs. When I say “the NY teams”, I don’t mean them, OK? So let’s forget about the Bills for a minute. The NY City teams - the ones that play in New Jersey, just across the Hudson River from Manhattan - have been awful for a long while. But mercifully, a light is starting to shine at the end of the tunnel. We hope.
I don’t want to make too much out of 5 games. It’s a long season and the Giants (4-1 - that’s right, 4-1!) and Jets (3-2) both still have plenty of problems to deal with, and areas to improve, and I don’t expect either one to make the playoffs this season. It’s also unclear whether either team has found a long-term answer at QB. But what is clear is that a foundation for success is being built in both places. The Joes - Douglas and Schoen - certainly appear to be big improvements over their respective predecessors at GM, and it also looks like both teams have at long last found their Head Coach, which is huge. And it’s very early but it also looks like both hit on most if not all of that bevy of high draft picks they each had this past April. As a resident of the NYC area, it’s hard to describe how different it feels having 2 football teams that aren’t already cross-offs by the middle of October. That both have winning records after 5 games is kind of stunning after so many consecutive years of double-barrelled losing. I was in a local deli on Monday morning and pretty much every conversation I overheard was about the Jets and Giants. That’s not unusual for a Monday in October - the lack of cursing and the level of excitement is what was different.
FANTASY IMPACT:
Last year, the Jets and Giants were both fantasy wastelands. Neither team had a single player ranked inside the top 75 overall players for the season (Half PPR scoring). I’ll repeat that - no Jet or Giant - not even their starting QBs (who both missed games with injuries), ranked inside the top 75 players in 2021 in fantasy points. That’s absurd. The highest ranked skill position player on either team? Jets’ rookie RB Michael Carter, who was the overall 128th player (RB29) in 2021. The Giants scored the fewest TDs in the NFL last year and the Jets weren’t a whole lot better. Smart fantasy managers avoided both teams, other than trying to start guys against them.
So far this year, things are better in both cases, although still not great. The big story is that Saquon Barkley is back, and his reemergence as an elite talent is a huge factor in the Giants’ early-season success, and especially with so many injuries hitting their WR corps yet again. Barkley is the RB3 in fantasy points (Half PPR) through 5 games, and is among the league leaders in total touches. The offense runs through him, with Daniel Jones capitalizing on the big-play threat of Barkley to create his own rushing and play-action opportunities. Even with those WR injuries, Jones has been a serviceable QB2, with upside thanks to his rushing. Over time, reliable (and healthy) WR and TE options may emerge on this offense, but that remains to be seen. Brian Daboll has brought some creative and aggressive play calling, which also helps. Still, outside of Barkley and PK Graham Gano (who has been terrific, and gets plenty of chances on an offense that sometimes struggles to finish drives), this isn’t a particularly good fantasy offense. The Giants are playing lower scoring, close games for the most part - for now at least
The fantasy situation for the Jets is slightly better, overall. For one thing, their defense hasn’t been that good, so they’ve had to play from behind a fair amount. Zach Wilson is back under center after getting hurt in the preseason and if he can stay healthy, he also looks like he can be a decent QB2, with similar rushing upside to Jones. Breece Hall is emerging as an RB2 with high upside, while Michael Carter has some value as RB depth. The pass-catchers are still shaking out. Elijah Moore has been a disappointment after the promise he showed as a rookie, but rookie Garrett Wilson has been very good when healthy, and Corey Davis and TE Tyler Conklin have been serviceable options and better than expected, so far. The Jets can put up points in the right matchups, and figure to be in some higher scoring games. They’re no longer a group to automatically avoid, and to the contrary, they’re providing some fantasy values this year.
And….CUT!
Ain’t No Stoppin’ Kupp
DH
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