Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 6
The Kyler Breakout is Coming…
(Published October 13, 2022, Updated for Injuries and Weather, Sunday Morning, October 16, @8:30 a.m.)
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Welcome to Week 6. One of the big stories from Week 5 was the re-emergence of the NFL Running Back. After a bunch of weeks where RBs generally underperformed expectations, Week 5 saw the highest number of RB TDs and 100 yard games so far this season, and a host of 1st and 2nd round RBs (Henry, Ekeler, Cook, Fournette, CMC, Barkley, Chubb, and Kamara) and a few taken later in drafts (Jacobs, B. Hall, Stevenson, Mostert, Pierce, Wilson) all turned in good games, and in some cases great ones. It was easily the best week for RBs so far this season - an encouraging sign after such a slow start across the board. We’ll see if it was an aberration or if it continues. OK, on to Week 6!
IN A HURRY? Here is a CHEATSHEET version of the Weekly Preview, with all of the Rides, Fades and Sleepers: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-6-cheatsheet .
SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE:
WEATHER: Just like Week 5, there are no significant weather issues impacting the Sunday and Monday slate. There is a small chance of rain during the DAL@PHI game Sunday night.
INJURY REPORT:
PLAYERS OUT: Tua, J. Winston, J. Taylor, N. Hines, Akers, J. Conner, Darrel Williams, Landry, Bateman, M. Thomas, Agholor, C. Watson, Toney, Freiermuth
PLAYERS DOUBTFUL TO PLAY: Dak, Mac Jones, Mayfield, T. Bridgewater, D. Harris, Olave, K. Allen (MNF), Julio Jones
PLAYERS QUESTIONABLE, LIKELY TO PLAY: Mostert, M. Gordon, Mattison, Kupp, Lamb, J. Meyers, Z. Jones, Hurst, Pitts, Higbee
TRUE GTD: Higgins
PLAYERS IN (no injury designation): R. Wilson, Tyreek Hill, McKenzie, Knox, Schultz, Brate, Jake Elliott, Butker, D. Hopkins
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Team Offense Report:
These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (28.5) 2. ARI (27) 3. GB (26.5) 4. TB (26.25) 5. LAR (25.75)
Bottom 5: 1. CAR (15.25) 2. PIT (17.25) 3. WAS (18.25) 4. DAL (18.75) 5. ATL (19.25)
SPECIAL NOTE: KC’s implied total is 6th highest, at 25.5, and the O/U of 54 for the BUF@KC game is among the highest we’ve seen this season. Play your Bills and Chiefs.
Team Defense Report:
Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 5 weeks of games, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. SF 2. BUF 3. DEN 4. CIN 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LV 2. TEN 3. MIA 4. KC 5. DET
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. LAR 3. CIN 4. DAL 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. LAC 2. CLE 3. DET 4. HOU 5. SEA
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. NYG 4. CIN 5. BUF
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT 2. TEN 3. BAL 4. WAS 5. LAR
Top 5 vs TE: 1. LAR 2. SF 3. NO 4. DAL 5. BUF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. LV 4. ATL 5. IND
WEEK 6 BYES: The Byes have arrived: DET, HOU, LV, and TEN are off this week.
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Allen, Barkley, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did well in Week 5, on the whole. Of particular note: a strong Ride call on Gabe Davis (coming off a game where he had just 1 catch for 13 yards - hopefully you read the column and didn’t sit him!) and Sleeper calls on Taysom Hill and Raheem Mostert. I had some big misses too of course, led by the Jets RBs. The prognostications from Week 5 are here: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-5
Don’t be Scared to Start Geno
Here we go, the Week 6 Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Kyler Murray is a name I haven’t mentioned much this year. To call the Cards slow starters is like calling Tyreek Hill fast. They haven’t scored a point in the first quarter yet this season. What? Yup, it’s true - nice work, Kliff. This week they travel to Seattle where they’ll face one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Kyler has been decent so far this year - he’s the QB5 after 5 games (although there is a big gap of 25 points from #4 to #5), which is right around where his ADP was. But he hasn’t had the kind of really big game that we saw multiple times last season. Yet. It’s coming. He’s my QB Ride of the Week.
In the same game, ride Geno Smith. It’s shocking I know, but Geno is the QB7 so far on the season. Don’t ask how that’s happened, just enjoy it while it lasts. Like the Seahawks, the Cards are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. This game has the second highest total of the week (50.5), and has shootout written all over it - start your Seahawks and Cards. Geno has established himself as a higher end QB2 in Superflex, and a lower end QB1, period. He’s ranked as the QB10 this week, which seems about right - the experts have finally noticed him.
Tom Brady is at the Steelers. That’s all I need to say. He’s ranked outside the top 5, which is fair, but I won’t be surprised if he’s a top 3-4 play this week. You saw what Josh Allen did to this defense, right?
Kirk Cousins was a successful Ride call last week, and I’ll go right back to the well this week. Miami’s defense has been a big disappointment. They’ve allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs, and with the expectation that they’ll be starting a third string, rookie QB, I like the Vikings to have the ball for a lot of this game. Miami’s 8 game home winning streak is in serious jeopardy.
I feel a rebound game coming for Matt Stafford this week. He’s ranked outside the top 12, but I think a top 10 week is in store for him. The Rams’ offense has been awful. But they’re home, and after a brutal schedule that saw them play the NFL’s 3 best defenses in the first 5 weeks, they get a bit of a reprieve this week with the Panthers, who have a new coach, and probably a new QB. I like this spot for Stafford and the entire offense. For one week, they’ll look like the Rams.
With a number of QBs banged up and 4 teams on bye, you might need a QB from lower in the rankings. After Stafford, the 2 that I like best from outside the top 12 are Jimmy G at the Falcons and (gulp) Justin Fields vs. the Commanders tonight. I know - I’ve faded Fields every week so far this season and it’s been the right call. Well, he’s playing at home, he’s coming off his best game so far this year, the Commanders are a bad defense that’s allowed 11 TD passes in 5 games, and it’s a short week. He’s my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
It’s been a tale of 2 seasons for Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have a good defense, and they’re playing low scoring games. Trevor is struggling of late and in this road tilt, he’s my QB Fade of the Week.
I’ll keep on fading Russell Wilson. He’s been bad this season and especially in prime time. He also had some sort of weird medical treatment this week. Until we see it from Russ on a consistent basis, hard pass.
A lot of the lower tier QBs have pretty tough matchups this week. You might be stuck in a Superflex, but I’d do my best to stay away from these guys, who might’ve cracked your lineup a couple of times this year: Mariota vs. the Bucs, Ryan vs. the Jaguars, Dalton vs. the Bengals, and Brissett vs. the Patriots.
Rhamondre: Ready to Roll
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
Rhamondre Stevenson got the opportunity to dominate touches last week and he made the most of it, against a bad defense. The only thing missing was a TD (or 2). This week, he should again see little challenge for touches, and faces another soft Run D. The Browns allow the second most fantasy points to RBs. I didn't see this one coming 2 weeks ago when I traded for him in my main league, and I’d be lying if I said otherwise, but Rhamondre is my RB Ride of the Week in Week 6.
Look for Dalvin Cook to keep it going this week in Miami. He’s ranked at the bottom of the top 10 this week, and that’s simply too low for him. Breece Hall hurt the Dolphins with some huge pass plays out of the backfield last week and I expect Dalvin to have similar success against a struggling defense.
Further down the rankings, I‘m going to ride several players ranked in the teens this week: Breece Hall at GB, Aaron Jones in the same game, Kenneth Walker against the Cards, and Melvin Gordon at the Chargers, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to RBs on the season, and just like last season, are very vulnerable vs. the run.
Moving a little further down the rankings, here are 3 players ranked in the 20s who I like as solid RB2 or flex plays this week: Raheem Mostert vs. the Vikings (assuming he plays), Devin Singletary at the Chiefs, and Eno Benjamin at Seattle. Benjamin is barely inside the top 30 and he’s my RB Sleeper of the Week. Did you see what the Saints did to the Seahawks on the ground last week? Even if Conner plays, I’d put Benjamin in your lineup.
If you’re desperate at RB and need a deep sleeper, I’ll give you 2: Mike Boone at the Chargers, and Rachaad White at the Steelers.
Fades:
A lot of first round RBs who’ve been disappointments showed up last week, but Najee Harris wasn't one of them. The Bills can do that. So can the Bucs, who’ve allowed the 5th fewest points to RBs. I’ve faded Harris a few times already this season - the Steelers are a mess all around, and he isn’t dominating touches like he did a year ago. This week, he’s my RB Fade of the Week.
You aren’t sitting CMC, and he’s proven to be pretty matchup-proof. But temper expectations against the Rams. They’ve allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to RBs, and I see this game getting ugly for Carolina. The hope is that CMC will bail you out with a big receiving day. Maybe - but he’s ranked as the RB4 this week and a top 10 finish from him will surprise me.
Zeke Elliott was a Fade call last week, against a very tough Rams’ Run D. He did get 20+ carries, but didn't do a ton with them, and Cooper Rush just doesn’t complete many passes to his RBs. The Cowboys have been winning with defense, but that’s going to be tougher this week at Philadelphia. I don’t think they can generate a lot of offense right now, and when you factor in that Zeke is in a share with Pollard, I’ll fade him again. Better days lie ahead, when Dak returns.
CEH doesn’t get you a lot when he doesn’t score a TD. I’ll fade him against a tough Bills’ D that’s allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs on the season. Plus, I think you’ll see plenty of McKinnon in this one.
The Atlanta RBs are a group Fade for me this week. They’re in a committee that’s hard to predict, and the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position.
Hollywood: The WR1 in the Desert for 1 More Week
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
You know I’m high on Kyler, so it shouldn’t be surprising that I’m in on his top receiver. Hollywood Brown is very quietly the WR6 so far this year. Who knew? He’s got more fantasy points than Chase and Deebo, among others who were drafted well ahead of him. This is the last game before Hopkins returns from suspension, so get it while you can. Hollywood is my WR Ride of the Week.
In the same game, I’ll ride Tyler Lockett. His performances have been even quieter than Hollywood’s, but he’s the WR8 on the season! It’s true - look it up. This is a nice matchup, and Lockett is ranked outside the top 12 this week - that’s too low. Lockett was added to the injury report on Thursday so make sure he is playing.
Give me Chris Godwin, who’s barely ranked inside the top 20 this week. I don’t think he’s 100% yet, but they’re playing the Steelers, who’ve allowed the most fantasy points to WRs. Godwin and Evans are both high floor starts this week.
Gabe Davis was a Ride last week, and I’ll ride him again. He returns to Arrowhead Stadium this week - the scene of the 4 TD crime from last January. The low target volume is concerning, but the penchant for big plays and scoring TDs is not. This one should be wild again, and with so many other weapons to contend with, I’m expecting the Chiefs to lose Gabe for a big play or 2, or 3, again.
Moving further down the rankings, a few receivers I like this week are: C. Kirk at the Colts, A. Lazard vs. the Jets, and J. Meyers at the Browns.
Devin Duvernay is my WR Sleeper of the Week. The Ravens have been getting him plenty of touches with runs and screens, and with Bateman a question mark to return this week, I think Duvernay at the Giants is a nice play as your WR3 or flex.
A few other sleepers I’d consider, if you’re in need at the back end of your starting lineup: Darnell Mooney vs. the Commanders, Rondale Moore at Seattle, I. McKenzie (if he plays) at the Chiefs, Randall Cobb vs. the Jets, and Darius Slayton vs. the Ravens.
Fades:
CeeDee Lamb is ranked inside the top 10 this week, but shouldn’t be. I think he’ll see plenty of Darius Slay, and will struggle to get targets and catches in this one. Lamb is my WR Fade of the Week.
Another high-end WR I’m worried about this week is Jaylen Waddle. I don’t know what to expect with Miami starting a rookie QB in this one. Going off of last week, I feel better about Hill than Waddle, so I’ll fade Waddle.
Terry McLaurin keeps showing up on my fades list. I like his talent, but it just isn’t happening so far this year. The Bears are top 10 in fewest points allowed to WRs - I’ll fade not-so-scary Terry once more.
Is this the week for JuJu? The Chiefs are going to need to score, so maybe. But I don’t like the matchup, or how much the Chiefs are spreading the ball around. JuJu has been a disappointment so far this year, and while he’s getting OK target volume, it just hasn’t translated to much, as 2 Chiefs players (Kelce and CEH) have hogged the passing TDs. Until that changes, I’m fading JuJu.
Elijah Moore is another WR who has disappointed. I’d keep fading him unless and until he starts producing.
DJ Moore and Allen Robinson are automatic Fades at this point. Sad but true. They can stare at each other from across the field on Sunday, wondering what went wrong, and why they aren’t in the box score.
I Give Up - Start the Swiss Army Knife
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
I give up. Taysom Hill shouldn’t qualify as a TE, but he does. He shouldn’t make so much out of limited opportunities, but he does. He shouldn’t be the TE3 on the season (trailing only the elite options at the position - Kelce and Andrews), but he is. With a number of Saints receivers banged up, the team is getting creative and giving him more opportunities to run and throw. The floor is low and the ceiling is high, at a very weak position. Roll the dice at home. Hill is my TE Ride of the Week.
One more Cardinal for you - let’s ride Zach Ertz, facing a Seattle defense that’s been kind to TEs (the stats are now officially screwed up, because of what Taysom Hill did to the Seahawks as an RB masquerading as a TE).
I think George Kittle is going to have his first big game of the year this Sunday against the Falcons, who’ve allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing TEs, and are fairly tough on WRs. He’s rarely a ride for me, mostly because he’s always over-ranked, but I like him this week.
I also like a few mid-range TEs this week: Evan Engram at the Colts and Irv Smith, Jr. at Miami. With so many TEs banged up or on bye, a top 10 finish from either one won’t be surprising.
I’ve got 2 sleepers for you - Noah Fant vs. the Cardinals and Cade Otton at the Steelers. Otton’s value diminishes greatly if Cameron Brate returns, so keep an eye on that. As for Fant, his usage was up across the board last week (snaps, routes, targets, and catches), and you’d expect him to emerge as the team’s TE1. He’s got a good matchup and is my TE Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Kyle Pitts may return this week, but he’s got 3 big things working against him - a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 5, an offense that isn’t really using him, and a SF defense that’s allowed just 138 yards and 0 TDs to TEs in 5 games - they trail only the Rams in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs. Pitts is my TE Fade of the Week. I know the temptation is to start him if you have him, but I wouldn’t (I have him in my main league, and won’t be starting him).
Dalton Schultz is another TE that would cause me to look elsewhere. He isn’t 100%, and the passing offense is very low volume with Cooper Rush in there. Fade him.
A few more fades: Tyler Conklin at the Packers, Hayden Hurst at the Saints, and Will Dissly vs. the Cards.
That’s a wrap - good luck to all in Week 6!
DH
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