Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 4

The NFL Failed Tua - Let’s Hope that’s the Impetus for Change

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(Published October 4, 2022)

Welcome to another edition of “Take Three”. Each week, I’m giving you 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component. 

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See the WEEK 5 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-5

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WEEK 4 TAKEAWAYS:

TAKE ONE: What Befell Tua was Horrible; Sadly, Something Like This Needed to Happen.

Two weeks ago, I was writing about Tua’s epic comeback against the Ravens. Now, I’m writing about an NFL player lying on his back, clearly in neurological distress after suffering a second blow to the head in 5 days. It was an ugly scene that was hard to watch, and a terrible look for NFL football. Unfortunately, something like this needed to happen in order to get the NFL to move forward and take head trauma and player safety more seriously than it has. 

A lot has been written about Tua’s injury since Thursday, and I’m no medical expert so I don’t have much to add. Regardless of whether the Dolphins followed existing protocols, clearly, the process broke down. The NFL’s concussion protocol is better than what came before it (i.e., nothing), but still inadequate in the eyes of many medical experts, with players routinely cleared quickly. A lot of head trauma experts will tell you that allowing a concussed player to be cleared to return to the field the next week is dangerous, as concussions take longer than that to heal and the risk of a second one (with more serious consequences) is heightened, and that more caution should be exercised when players are evaluated after taking a hit to the head.

The NFL and NFLPA are in the process of revising the protocols, and on Sunday it appeared that more teams were being cautious with head injuries in the wake of what happened on Thursday night. More than a dozen players left games with apparent head injuries and didn’t return. Let’s hope that Tua is fine, and can return sometime this season and get back to his ascending level of play. And let’s hope that the new and improved concussion protocols will do a much better job of protecting the players. You can’t take violence and hard hits out of football. It’s an essential component of the game and part of what makes it so popular. But you can do a better job of protecting the players, both with prevention in terms of equipment and how the game is taught and called, and with more effective protocols for head injuries. Sadly, the main thing that has moved the NFL in those directions is lawsuits and financial exposure. The Tua situation was a stark reminder to the league that the liability exposure remains. If that, plus public outcry, is what it takes to get the league to act, so be it.

FANTASY IMPACT:

The fantasy impact of all of this is that concussed players are likely to take longer to return to action, and those suspected of being concussed might be returned to games less frequently. Hopefully, that’s not just a short term thing. It’s a small price to play, and fantasy players won’t like it but can hopefully understand it. As I said, you already saw more caution being exercised this past weekend, after the Thursday night game. As for the Dolphins, Teddy Bridgewater isn’t Tua, but he’s a more than capable backup with lots of starting experience, and the Miami schedule is pretty favorable for the next month. We don’t know how long Teddy will be the starter, but he should do fine and can be a streamer or QB2 in Superflex leagues, with upside. Working with the 1’s in practice will help and I would only slightly downgrade Miami’s main weapons. 

Jared Goff is Lighting it Up in Detroit

TAKE TWO: The Detroit Lions are a Pinball Machine

OK, this one is more fun to talk about. I can’t remember a team opening the season with as many shootouts as we’ve seen from the Lions. And that’s because nobody has. Right now, Detroit leads the NFL in both points scored (140) AND points against (141), which is pretty unusual, and the 281 total points scored in their first 4 games of a season is an NFL record. Last week, I wrote about how defense has had the upper hand early in the season, with NFL scoring averages dropping again after a drop last season. The Lions didn’t get the memo.

The DET-SEA game on Sunday was astounding. The Seahawks shouldn’t be putting up 48 on anyone, but there they were. Meanwhile, Detroit was without its top RB and top 2 WRs. No matter - Goff and company put up 45. Yes, these are 2 of the worst defenses in the league, but still - 93 points? This was a crazy game, but at this point with these Lions, not totally unexpected. I can’t imagine this pace continuing, but I do think they’ll have plenty of higher scoring games going forward.

FANTASY IMPACT:

This one is easy. Unless and until things change, start your Lions, and start the guys playing them. It’s been fantasy gold, all around. When it was announced on Friday that ARSB was out for Sunday, I picked up Josh Reynolds in 2 leagues and just plugged him in (for ARSB in one league, for someone else in another). Ka-ching! They won’t play the Seahawks every week, but remember, they put up 35 on Philadelphia in Week 1. Fun fact: Goff is the QB5 (and overall fantasy scorer #5) on the young season. It always depends on matchups, but at this point, I’d seriously consider playing him most weeks over R. Wilson, Stafford, Cousins, Carr, Lawrence and perhaps some other QBs that were taken well ahead of him. 

Warner and the 49ers D are Bringing the Wood

TAKE 3: The 49ers Have the Best Defense in the NFL, and are Dangerous Again

What’s going on over in the NFC West, which was probably the best division in football last season? All 4 teams are 2-2, but that’s a mirage - there isn’t parity in that division. I was a little down on the 49ers coming into the season, mostly because I was very unsure about Trey Lance. I was also down on the Cardinals, and still am. The Rams’ struggles have been a bit of a surprise, but I still think they’re a playoff team. The Seahawks are playing better than expected, but they’re a 5 or 6 win team in all likelihood. No, this division will come down to the 49ers and Rams, and right now, I like the 49ers, largely because of their defense. San Francisco has been to 2 of the last 3 NFC Title games, and I won’t be surprised to see them there again this season.

It’s early, but the 49ers defense has been dominant. Yes, it helps that they played their first game in a monsoon, against Chicago which has the worst offense in the league (a game they lost, by the way), but through 4 games they’ve allowed just 46 points, which is 4 fewer PPG than the next stingiest team (Dallas). They’re tied with Buffalo for the fewest total yards allowed, and they’ve allowed the second fewest rushing yards and passing yards. Their defense has athletic playmakers at all 3 levels, and flies to the ball. They can get after the passer with their tremendous front 4, but with so many playmakers on defense, they can and do bring other rushers at times, to strong effect. Their 15 sacks through 4 games is second only to Dallas (16). And they might have a star in the making in 2nd year strong safety Talanoa Hufanga, who already has 44 tackles and 2 INTs on the season. They kept the Rams out of the end zone last night, which was impressive.

FANTASY IMPACT:

This team has already seen a lot of change to start the season, and the offense has been inconsistent so far. I wrote about the 49ers 2 weeks ago, when Jimmy G replaced the injured Lance. What I said then holds true - it may take a little while, but this offense should end up being pretty similar for fantasy as it was last year. Deebo is the one true star and he showed again last night how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands, and you can expect the 49ers to continue to try to get him the ball with space to run. Jeff Wilson gets lots of opportunity and is a decent RB2 or flex while Mitchell is out, and Kittle and Aiyuk will be hard to trust week to week, but capable of good games. You’re obviously starting Kittle each week and hoping for the best as you likely don’t have a better option if he’s your TE1. Jimmy G is a medium range QB2, and Gould is a kicker with a decent floor. The DST is a top 3 unit. On the all-important flip side - I wouldn’t bench players just because they’re playing against the 49ers, and you’re always starting your studs. But for close calls and especially with QBs and RBs, a defense that’s only allowing 11.5 PPG and less than 250 total yards per game, and causing turnovers, is a matchup to avoid where you can. 

And….CUT!

DH

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