Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 5
Saquon is Back
(Published October 6, 2022, Updated for INJURIES and WEATHER October 9, @8 a.m.)
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FOR A CHEATSHEET VERSION OF THE RIDES, FADES AND SLEEPERS, SEE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-5-cheatsheet .
Welcome to Week 5. October is here, and somehow almost a quarter of the season is gone. The first month of an NFL season almost always seems like it’s crazy, but in reality September of 2022 gave us the usual fare: some surprises, a bunch of injuries, and a few things actually going according to plan, although it might not seem like it. Here are some fun (and not so fun, depending on your perspective) stats from the first 4 weeks:
The Lions lead the NFL in points scored (140) AND points against (141), and the 281 total points scored in their first 4 games to start the season is an NFL record.
Cooper Kupp has more receptions (42) than Justin Fields has completions (34).
Saquon Barkley has as many plays of 20+ yards (5) as he had in the last 3 seasons combined, and through 4 weeks he is the RB2 in Half PPR, trailing only Nick Chubb.
Through 4 games, Allen Robinson has less than 10 catches and less than 100 receiving yards. It’s 2021 all over again.
2 TEs on the Seahawks have more fantasy points than Kyle Pitts.
Russell Wilson is on pace to throw 17 TD passes.
Matt Stafford has now thrown 28 career pick-sixes, tied with Joe Namath for the 3rd most since 1950.
Cooper Rush has won all 4 of his first 4 career starts - he’s the first Cowboy to do that.
The Ravens have blown leads of 17 points or more in 2 of their 4 games.
The Eagles have scored 85 of their 106 points in the 2nd quarter. That’s around 80%.
By the time Week 5 is over, it’s highly likely that 9 of the 32 NFL teams will have started a QB who was not #1 on their preseason depth chart.
***** SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE *****
WEATHER REPORT: No significant weather issues expected - only potential concern is moderate winds (with strong gusts on occasion) for PIT@BUF
INJURY REPORT:
QB
OUT: Dak, Tua, T. Taylor, Hoyer
DOUBTFUL: J. Winston, M. Jones
PLAYING: D. Jones
RB
OUT: Swift, TDP
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Montgomery, Kamara, Pollard
PLAYING: B. Robinson (may be limited), B. Hall
WR
OUT: K. Allen, Bateman, M. Thomas, Chark, Burks (IR), Dotson, Crowder, Kumerow, Toney, W. Robinson, Golladay (IR)
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: T. Hil, Waddle, Lamb, T. Higgins, Z. Jones, J. Meyers, R. Gage, R. Moore, Renfrow, Reynolds
GTD: ARSB, J. Jones
PLAYING: G. Davis, I. McKenzie
TE
OUT: Pitts, Knox, Brate, B. Jordan
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Hurst
GTD: L. Thomas
PK
OUT: Elliott, Butker, Prater
Team Offense Report:
These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (31) 2. KC (29) 3. TB (28) 4. PHI (27.5) 5. JAX (26.25)
Bottom 5: 1. CAR (16.25) 2. PIT (16.5) 3. NYG (17) 4. CHI (18.25) 5. HOU (18.75)
Team Defense Report:
Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 4 weeks of games, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. SF 3. CIN 4. DAL 5. PHI
Bottom 5 vs QB 1. DET 2. MIA 3. BAL 4. KC 5. LV
Top 5 vs RB: 1. LAR 2. SF 3. MIA 4. TB 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. DET 3. SEA 4. LAC 5. CHI
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. NYG 3. BUF 4. CHI 5. IND
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. BAL 2. WAS 3. LAR 4. TEN 5. PIT
Top 5 vs TE: 1. NO 2. BUF 3. LAR 4. DAL 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. ATL 4. TB 5. IND
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are what we like to call “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Allen, Barkley, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a pretty solid showing in Week 4 - more was right than wrong, by a decent amount. Of note: Ekeler as the RB Start of the Week and Penny as the RB Sleeper of the Week were dead-on, as they finished the week as the RB2 and RB4. Still, we had a few notable misses and our scorching start from the first 2 weeks is fading into memory. The prognostications from Week 4: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-4 - I’ll try to give you the goods in Week 5.
Here we go, the Week 5 Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
The Defiance of Father Time Continues this Week
QB
I wish I could list Patrick Mahomes, but he’s too elite of an option. He OWNS the Raiders. In fact, all of the consensus top 5 at the position (Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Jackson & Herbert) have nice matchups this week - enjoy them this week if you have them.
Rides and Sleepers:
Tom Brady was a correct “Ride” call last week and this week, he’s my QB Ride of the Week. His WRs are back and the Falcons have been mediocre against the pass, already allowing 7 TD passes. I think Brady rolls this week, regardless of whatever is going on in his personal life. He’s barely ranked inside the top 10 and this has huge game written all over it.
Kirk Cousins has been just OK so far this season. This week, he’s home against the Bears and he’s ranked just outside the Top 10. The Vikings should crush in this one and I like Cousins to look better than he has.
Derek Carr is worth a ride this week, in a game where the Raiders will need to score plenty and might have extended garbage time. The Chiefs have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs.
Ride Aaron Rodgers in London against the Giants. Odd stat - the Giants are the only team in the NFL without an INT. Rodgers is also outside the top 10 for the week, but I expect a top 10 type of day from him in what could be a lopsided game, given the state of the Giants’ QB room.
Two mid-range Rides for this week, especially in Superflex leagues or if you need a streamer: Trevor Lawrence vs. the Texans, and Carson Wentz vs. the Titans
Teddy Bridgewater is my QB Sleeper of the Week. I expect a good game from him. More sleepers for this week are Ryan Tannehill at the Commanders (even without Treylon Burks) - the 10 passing TDs they’ve allowed is tied for the most in the NFL, and Zach Wilson vs. the Dolphins, who’ve allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs. I’m expecting a bit of a shootout at the Meadowlands on Sunday.
Fades:
Matt Stafford was a Fade call last week, and he was kept out of the end zone. It doesn't get much easier this week as the Rams draw the Cowboys, who only trail the 49ers in total points allowed, lead the NFL in sacks, and have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs. Throw in that the Rams have been struggling to protect Stafford and to move the ball outside of Cooper Kupp, and Stafford could be in for a long day - he’s my QB Fade of the Week.
Jared Goff has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season - he’s the QB5. He’s turned in 3 huge games at home, and 1 mediocre game on the road. For this week, I’d proceed with caution as he heads out on the road for the second time this season. He might still be down some key weapons, and @NE figures to be a moderately tough matchup. If you want to ride the hot hand here, I can’t blame you.
Geno Smith has also been a very pleasant surprise, but the Saints are a tough draw - they’ve only allowed 3 TD passes in 4 games. If he’s your QB2 in Superflex or streaming option, I’d pass on him this week.
Matt Ryan at the stingy Broncos is an easy Fade, as is Justin Fields, in any week, against any opponent.
This is beyond obvious - but you never know. Don’t even think about starting Kenny Pickett against the Bills, or Baker Mayfield vs. the 49ers.
J-Rob is Getting it Done
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
James Robinson is ranked outside the top 10 this week, but he shouldn’t be. Yes, he’s in a bit of a timeshare, but he’s still the early down and goal line guy, and the Jaguars are facing a Texans’ defense that’s allowed the most rushing yards, and fantasy points, to opposing RBs. Robinson is my RB Ride of the Week.
Alvin Kamara is also ranked outside the top 10. If he plays, he gets to face the Seahawks, who are terrible on defense in just about every respect, and have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. Ride him if he suits up - the Saints need to right the ship and “Kamara Season” starts this week. [SUNDAY UPDATE: Kamara is expected to play]
Both New England RBs are worth riding this week. The Lions have allowed the most rushing TDs to RBs on the season (8), and the second most fantasy points to the position. With the Patriots likely on their 3rd string QB for this one, expect them to run the ball all day against a porous run defense.
A couple of mid-range RBs that I like this week: Miles Sanders and Khalil Herbert. Sanders is quietly having a very, very good season.
Raheem Mostert is my RB Sleeper of the Week. He’s ranked way down in the lower 30s and against the Jets and with Miami maybe going a little more conservative, he’s got a good chance to make some noise.
A couple of other sleepers I’d consider (all ranked 35 or lower), if you need them: Nyheim Hines at the Broncos, Rachaad White vs. the Falcons, and Travis Etienne vs. the Texans.
Fades:
Najee Harris is my RB Fade of the Week. I don’t see a lot going right for the Steelers this week, with a rookie QB getting his first start against a very tough Bills’ D.
I don’t expect too much out of either Zeke Elliott or Tony Pollard this week. They’re in a share, and the Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs and just one TD to the position on the season.
Rashaad Penny was great last week, but that was against the Lions. Fade him at the Saints, who are top 10 vs. RBs, and who should control this game.
A few more Fades: James Conner against the Eagles, Falcons RBs against the Bucs, Jets RBs vs. the Dolphins.
Mike Evans: He Doesn’t Just Score TDs
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
You know I’m high on Brady this week, so let’s also ride his top 2 WRs. Mike Evans continues to be under appreciated - he’s a beast, and maybe the best red zone receiver in the league. He’s my WR Ride of the Week. As for Chris Godwin, his weekly ranking of WR21 is way too low in my eyes. The Bucs might be without both Julio Jones and Cam Brate, so the 2 top dogs should each see lots of volume.
There are a bunch of WRs ranked in the teens and 20s who I like this week. It’s a big list, and here it is in order of highest ranked to lowest - ride ‘em if you’ve got ‘em: T. Higgins (@Bal), C. Sutton (vs. Ind), C. Kirk (vs. Hou), M. Williams (@Cle), C. Olave (vs. Sea), A. Cooper (vs. LAC), B. Cooks (@Jac) and D. Smith (@Ari).
I know Gabe Davis only had one catch last week, for 13 yards. I know it well - I started him in 2 leagues! Ugh. Ride him this week. Don’t be scared! The Steelers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs, Davis is another week removed from his ankle injury, and the Bills will be without Crowder and possibly McKenzie and Kumerow as well. Davis is the WR30 this week - he won’t be ranked this low again any time soon. Big game alert…
Robert Woods is my WR Sleeper of the Week. I know it hasn’t been great so far, or even especially good, but he did find the end zone last week. With Burks likely to miss this one, and against a truly awful Commanders’ defense that’s allowed the most passing TDs to WRs (7), and the second most fantasy points to the position, Woods has to produce, right? Right??
A couple of other sleepers to consider, if you need them: Tyler Boyd at the Ravens, Mack Hollins at the Chiefs, MVS in the same game, and Christian Watson against the Giants (a true dart throw - but at some point a big game is coming).
Fades:
I’m very high on Michael Pittman for the full season, but he’s my WR Fade of the Week this week. The Colts could really struggle in this one without Jonathan Taylor, and the Broncos have been as stingy as it gets to opposing WRs. They’ve allowed just one TD to a WR this year, and the fewest fantasy points to the position. Pittman should see target volume, but it might not translate to much production against this defense. I’ll be happy to be wrong on this one as I’m probably stuck starting him in one league.
I’ve been fading Rashod Bateman most weeks, and it’s generally been the right call. I don’t see any pass catcher besides Andrews ever being a weekly must-start in this offense. [SUNDAY UPDATE - BATEMAN IS OUT THIS WEEK]
Better days are ahead for the Steelers’ pass catchers with the change at QB. But I’d stay away from Diontae Johnson this week, against the Bills. I’m not sure why he’s ranked in the low 20s. He’s the WR44 on the season and the Bills are one of the toughest draws for WRs.
DJ Moore had so much hype to start the season. Through 4 games, he’s the WR 60 (and Baker is the QB23), and I don’t see that getting any better against the NFL’s best defense (SF). He’s now like Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney - Fade until further notice (and they’re both fades again this week).
Great Moments in Irony: The Eagles have a Player Named Dallas
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
Dallas Goedert, come on down! You get to face the Cardinals this week (2nd most points allowed to TEs, including the 2nd most yards allowed to the position), and you’re the TE Ride of the Week!
Kyle Pitts, where are you? The entire fantasy community is asking why your picture is on the back of milk cartons. It’s gotten so bad, this once in a generation talent at the position is barely ranked inside the top 10, and you could legitimately question why he’s even that high. Arthur Smith - please answer. Assuming he suits up, I’ll go contrarian and ride Pitts this week. The Falcons will need to follow a very different game script in this one, and will have to throw. The Bucs’ D is strong, but they’ve been vulnerable to TEs, allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the position (playing against Travis Kelce last week didn't help their stats). [SUNDAY UPDATE - PITTS IS OUT THIS WEEK]
Two more Rides for this week: Tyler Conklin vs. Miami and Zach Ertz vs. the Eagles.
Logan Thomas is my TE Sleeper of the Week. Yes, he’s still in the NFL, and he’s not injured. Jahan Dotson has been Wentz’s favorite end zone target, but he’s in danger of missing this one. Meanwhile, the Titans are tied with the Seahawks as the worst pass defense in the NFL through 4 games. [SUNDAY UPDATE - THOMAS IS A GTD]
Another sleeper to consider is Taysom Hill vs. the Seahawks - not that he’ll catch a lot of passes, but he’s always got a chance of running one in, or throwing one, and the Saints should pile up points. I’ll give you one more sleeper: Hunter Henry against the Lions.
Fades:
Pat Freiermuth is yet another Steeler who’s in for better days ahead, but he shouldn’t be ranked inside the top 10 this week (he is), against a Bills’ defense that’s allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to TEs. I’m fading a lot of Steelers this week and he joins the club as my TE Fade of the Week.
Dalton Schultz is a tough call this week. Cooper Rush looks his way, but the Rams have been absolutely brutal against the position. In 4 games, they’ve allowed just 12 catches for 98 yards and 0 TDs to opposing TEs. I’ll fade Schultz.
Gerald Everett has been really good so far this year - a very pleasant surprise at a weak position. This week at Cleveland, I’ll fade him as I think it will be rough going for him and especially if Keenan Allen and/or Donald Parham return.
Good luck to all in Week 5!
DH
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