Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 2

Has Tua Arrived?

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(Published September 20, 2022)

Exciting news - The Pigskin Papers is launching a new feature for this season. I’m replacing the “Weekly Fantasy Recap” with an NFL and Fantasy column called “Take 3”. Each week, I’m going to give you 3 of my biggest takeaways from that week’s NFL action, each of which has a related fantasy component. This week, all 3 takes relate to the most important position in sports.

****SEE OUR WEEK 3 FANTASY WAIVER WIRE COLUMN HERE: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-3 ***

TAKE ONE: Sunday’s Epic Comeback May Have Been Tua’s Turning Point (and Miami’s)

As a Dolphins fan, I’m still trying to make sense of what happened on Sunday, without getting too far out over my skis. Or too drunk. Saying it took me by surprise is a big understatement. Disbelief is more like it, and especially since it was the biggest second half comeback in team history, and the biggest 4th quarter comeback in the NFL since 2010.

For 2 full seasons, Miami fans have watched Justin Herbert (taken with the very next pick after Miami took Tua with the 5th pick in 2020) quickly blossom into a Franchise QB, while significantly outperforming Tua. The other QB taken in the top 10 that year, #1 overall pick Joe Burrow, has already gone to a Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts, who at one point played with Tua at Alabama and who was taken in the second round that year, has started to excel. For the Dolphins, the elephant in the room has been whether the team blew that 5th pick, and in the process, missed a golden opportunity to find the most elusive creature in sports - the Franchise QB.

What Tua did on Sunday, on the road, was remarkable not only because of the ridiculous performance he turned in (36 for 50 for 469 yards and 6 TDs) but also because of how calm, competent, and poised he looked in leading his team back twice from 21 point second half deficits. So the obvious question to ask is this: Will we one day look back on this as Tua’s career-defining moment and his coming out party, or was it a fluke? 

I don’t yet have an answer to this, and time will tell. But I’m leaning more towards the former than the latter. If you look at the first 2 seasons of Drew Brees’s career, you see unimpressive numbers. I don’t think Tua is ever going to be close to what Brees eventually became, but the accuracy and overall skill set is similar enough that with the right structure and supporting cast around him, I think Tua can be more of what Miami drafted him to be, and less of what he’s been so far. We’ll see.  

It’s easy to find excuses for Tua through his first 2 seasons. He played behind one of the worst lines in the NFL, the team had nothing at running back, his receiving weapons were so-so, the coaching staff was more defensive-minded, and maybe he wasn’t fully physically and mentally recovered from the very serious hip injury he suffered in college.

The Nightmare Brothers (for Opposing DCs)

Credit the Miami front office for addressing a lot of these problems. No team did more this past offseason to help its QB than Miami. In addition to bringing in a new offensive-minded Head Coach off of the McVay-Shanahan tree, the Dolphins opened the vault for Tyreek Hill and by pairing him with second year man Jaylen Waddle, created the league’s fastest WR duo. They also brought in a pair of quality RBs, and made significant improvements to the O-line. If Tua doesn’t excel this year, there won’t be any excuses left, and at the end of this season the Dolphins will know whether or not they’ve got the Franchise QB that Tua was always expected to be. Remember that for most of his college career, he was the top QB prospect in his class. On Sunday, he certainly looked the part, and having the league’s most terrifying pair of wideouts gives him a great opportunity to not only move the chains more easily, but to make big and impactful plays from the pocket. Case in point - Tua threw 3 TD passes on Sunday that traveled more than 20 air yards - he had 3 such throws for his entire career before that. The Dolphins and Tua have a very tough test on Sunday - the Bills at home. Tua has really struggled against the Bills’ outstanding defense - and they’re a team he has yet to beat. They’ve shown through the first 2 weeks that they’re the class of the NFL.

FANTASY IMPACT: Coming into this season, many fantasy analysts worried that (a) Tyreek Hill’s trade to Miami, and away from Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, would negatively impact Hill’s production, and (b) Hill’s presence in Miami would relegate Waddle to a secondary role, negatively impacting him. Well, it’s only 2 games, but so far, both receivers are getting theirs. They’re currently WRs #4 and 5 on the leaderboard in Half PPR. You can feel confident putting either one in your lineup against any opponent, and good about the likely bargain you got them for on draft night. As for Tua, there may never be another game quite like the one he just had, but in Superflex leagues he’s a high-end QB2, and he’s clearly got the upside to be better than that. In a 1 QB league, you aren’t starting him over the top guys, but if he’s your backup for Russell Wilson (more on him in a minute) or a few other QBs that were ranked as QB1s before the start of the season and aren’t performing up to expectations, you might have some tough start/sit decisions down the road. With all of that said I would not start Tua against Buffalo this week. They allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs last season, and are well on their way to being just as stingy this year.

Russ is Off to a Rough Start in Denver

TAKE TWO: Russ Looks Less Like He’s Cooking, and More Like He’s Cooked

I don’t want to overreact to 2 games. I know how great Russell Wilson’s career has been and I know what he’s capable of. But the first 2 games of 2022 have been mediocre, and it’s not like the Seahawks and Texans are elite defenses. I get that the first game was a weird one, with Russ having to go into a frenzied Lumen Field in his first NFL game where he wasn’t a Seahawk. But this past week was ugly (14 of 31 for 219 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT), and what concerns me is that after a monster 2020, he took a step back last year, including before he hurt his finger. Another thing that concerns me is that he looks less mobile, and only has 5 rushing yards through 2 games. Part of what’s made Russ so devastatingly effective is his ability to move around the pocket, and buy time while his receivers uncover - or to run if they don’t. As a shorter QB, that mobility is essential. Again, I’d be less worried if this was just a 2 game sample. But it’s starting to look like it might be a downward career trend, which can certainly happen to a player who is 33. My guess is that Russ will start to look more like Russ as he gets more comfortable in Denver, and that this take will look silly in a few weeks. The Broncos better hope so, after what they gave up to get him, and with what they’re paying him.

FANTASY IMPACT: This offense has a decent amount of talent all around, and the expectation was that replacing the Bridgewater-Lock combo with a QB of Russ’s caliber would make the Broncos a higher scoring team and lift all fantasy boats, as it did in Seattle for a decade. Through 2 games that hasn’t happened, but it’s still early and for now you’ve got to keep playing your better Broncos (R. Wilson, J. Williams, M. Gordon if you need him as your RB2 or at flex, Sutton, Jeudy when healthy, and possibly Albert O) and hope it gets better. You’re playing Williams and probably Sutton every week without thinking, regardless of who the QB is and how they’re playing. Russ himself is someone you might consider benching at some point if you’ve got a better option. He hasn’t finished as a top 12 QB in either of the first 2 weeks and right now he’s the QB20. Again - it’s only 2 games so that ranking isn’t that meaningful, but it’s not the start you were looking for. It’s certainly not time to panic - yet.

That Was Quick - Jimmy G is Back

TAKE THREE: Jimmy G Gives the 49ers a Better Chance to Win than Trey Lance.

I’ll start by saying that I feel horrible for Lance. He gets his chance to be the starter, Week 1 is played in a monsoon, and his season ends with a broken ankle in Week 2. He didn’t have a chance to show out and we didn’t get to see what this offense was going to look like this season with him at the helm. Those of you who read my preseason material know that I was skeptical, and was mostly fading the 49ers in fantasy. The irony here is that the 49ers wanted to move Jimmy G but were not able to, and now after less than 2 games as the backup, he’s the starter again. That’s obviously good news for the 49ers - no other NFL team has a backup who started as many games for the team as Jimmy has in S.F. Not only has he won a bunch of games as the 49ers QB, he’s won 5 playoff games for them in the last 3 years, and gone to a Super Bowl. He knows the offense, knows the players, and the transition back to him should be seamless. In a weak NFC, I like the 49ers to get back to the playoffs. We’ll never know if they would’ve done so this season with Lance.

FANTASY IMPACT: I was below consensus on every 49er this season. My thinking was that Lance’s running prowess would take rushing opportunities away from the RBs and Deebo, including at the goal line, and that the passing would be a lot less efficient. Now that Jimmy is back in, it’s pretty much a reset to last season, and I’m a lot more bullish on the entire offense, right down to the kicker. The defense is good, meaning the offense should have the ball a lot. I think you’re back to starting all of your main 49ers with confidence, and Jimmy is a mid-range QB2, as he was last season.

And….CUT!

DH

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