Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 3
Can the Reigning AFC Champs Right the Ship?
(Published September 22, 2022, updated for injuries and weather Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern)
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Welcome to Week 3! Two weeks of play are in the books and we’re starting to move from the appetizers to the main course for the 2022 NFL season. You don’t want to overreact or panic after just 2 weeks, But after 3? Well, maybe, and you often see the trading market start to heat up after Week 3. For those of you who are 0-2, it’s time to buckle down and get a win. So let’s keep the chitchat to a minimum and jump right into the Week 3 analysis.
****In a hurry? Here is a CHEATSHEET that lists all of this week’s RIDES, FADES and SLEEPERS: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-cheatsheet-2022-week-3
WEEK 3
Byes: None
Team offense report:
These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (29.75) 2. MIN (29.25) 3. KC (28.25) 4. PHI (26.75) 5. LAR (26.5)
Bottom 5: 1. PIT (16.25) 2. DAL (18) T3. HOU (18.75) T3. CAR (18.75) 5. GB (19.5)
Team defense report:
Through 2 games, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. TB 3. SF 4. CAR 5. PHI
Bottom 5 vs QB: 32. ARI 31. BAL 30. MIA 29. DET 28. TEN
Top 5 vs RB: 1. MIA 2. DEN 3. LAR 4. TB 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs RB: 32. TEN 31. DET 30. WAS 29. ARI 28. CAR
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. NYG 4. BUF 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs WR: 32. BAL 31. LAR 30. ATL 29. CLE 28. TEN
Top 5 vs TE: 1. SF 2. LAR 3. NO 4. GB 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs TE: 32. ARI 31. MIA 30. ATL 29. DEN 28. IND
Weather Update: It will be hot and humid in Miami and Tampa today, but the only real weather concern is once again Chicago, where it will be windy, with sustained winds in the lose 20 mph range, and gusts in the 30s. This could impact the kicking and passing games - not that the Bears have a passing game.
Injury Watch: Here is the INJURY update as of 9:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday (and be sure to check the official inactives list at around noon, before finalizing your lineups):
QB - Herbert is a GTD (with a late afternoon start), Winston is expected to play.
RB - Expected to play: Fournette, Kamara, Dobbins, J. Jacobs, Conner, Swift
WR - Out: Evans (suspended), Godwin, Renfrow, R. Moore, S. Watkins (IR); Expected to Play: Pittman, G. Davis, Jeudy, Gage, Cobb, Perriman, Beasley, Gallup (could be on a pitch count); GTD: K. Allen, J. Jones; Not expected to play: J. Meyers, C. Watson
TE - Expected to play: Kittle, Hockenson; Not expected to play: T. Hill; GTD: Schultz (MNF)
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up start/sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are what we like to call “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, and Travis Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works well for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Here we go, the Week 3 Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is off to a flying start in 2022! I wish I could say the same thing for my main fantasy team, half of which spent last weekend on the sidelines with a myriad of weird injuries. Heal up, boys! Anyway, nobody cares about anyone else’s fantasy team, so I’ll stop there. It’s true though - people’s eyes glass over when you start telling them your fantasy bad beat stories. Getting back to puffing out my chest, I had a lot of very good calls in Week 2. My Rides of the Week (Stafford, Chubb, A. St. Brown and Everett) combined for a whopping 80 fantasy points (Half PPR), with Chubb (#1RB) and St. Brown (#3WR) turning in stellar performances. My QB Fade of the Week was Tom Brady, and he obliged with a QB28 showing. His top WR Mike Evans was my WR Fade of the Week, and he scored just 6 fantasy points before getting ejected in the second half. I’ll try to keep the hot streak going this week. You can see all of the Week 2 prognostications here: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-2 .
It’s a Rebound Game for Captain Kirk
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Kirk Cousins had a rough go of it on Monday night - not his first primetime stumble. This week, he returns home to face a Lions’ defense that’s given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs in the first 2 weeks of the season. The Vikings will come in angry, but the Lions can spin the scoreboard with them and this divisional battle should be a fun shootout. The oddsmakers gave it the highest point total of the week at 53.5. Day-game Kirk is my QB Ride of the Week.
Matt Stafford was my QB Ride of the Week last week and he did well, turning in a top 10 finish for the week. There’s no reason to jump off the Stafford train this week. He’ll face an Arizona defense that’s already given up 7 TD passes and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs through the first 2 games. Yes, they faced the Chiefs and Raiders who both have high-volume passing attacks with very good weapons. But guess what? That also describes the reigning NFL champs. Stafford is ranked as the QB 10 this week and I like him to finish inside the top 5.
While we’re picking on bad pass defenses, let’s also Ride Derek Carr, who’ll be on the road facing a Tennessee defense that just got absolutely shredded by Josh Allen. Carr isn’t Allen of course, and this is a must-win game for a pair of 0-2 teams that came into the year with playoff expectations, so I do expect the Titans to show up. Still, I think it will be high scoring and I like Carr to provide a top 10 finish this week. [Sunday injury update: with Renfrow out (see below), I’m slightly less bullish on Carr - he’s down to neutral for me]
Moving outside of the top 15, 2 QBs I like as sleepers this week are Jared Goff (who after 2 weeks is the QB8 on the season) at the Vikings, and Marcus Mariota at Seattle. Goff is my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
Tom Brady was my QB Fade of the Week in each of the first 2 weeks of the season, and it was a ticket that hit both times. Well, this week I’m going with the QB that Brady’s team is facing, Aaron Rodgers. The Bucs are 2-0 mostly because of their defense, which has been excellent. Through 2 games, Tampa has only allowed 13 points, best in the NFL. On top of that, they’ve allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Picking against Rodgers is always dangerous, but I think the Green Bay offense is still figuring things out post-Adams and is going to struggle in this one, as they did in Week 1.
Another “big name” QB that I’m fading this week is Russell Wilson, at home against a stout 49er defense. Wilson has struggled against 2 lesser defenses, and until I see it, I’m skeptical that Russ can deliver at his old level. I don’t particularly like Jimmy G in the same game, which I expect to be low scoring.
I want so badly to go contrarian and push my chips in on Tua this week, after his astonishing performance on Sunday, but against this defense, I just can’t. The Bills allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs last year, and they’re already leading that category again in 2022. Through 2 games, they’ve allowed just 1 passing TD while picking off 5 passes, and they’re allowing just 180 passing yards per game - to teams that were trailing them and had to throw. On top of that, the Bills have owned Tua in his brief career. Much better days are ahead for Tua and Miami, and I think he’ll be OK in this game - I just don’t think you want him in your lineup if you have other options.
You can’t start Justin Fields at this point. You just can’t. I know they’re playing Houston, but they’ve actually been a decent defense through 2 weeks, and Chicago’s passing offense has looked abysmal. If he’s your QB2 in a Superflex, try to make other plans.
Lenny Should be Busy in the Battle of the Bays
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
I’d love to make Dalvin Cook my RB Ride of the Week, but at RB3 he’s ranked too high for that. I do foresee one of those vintage Dalvin weeks, against a Detroit D that won’t be able to contain him. Look for him to be very involved in the passing game too.
So with Dalvin off the board, let’s go with Joe Mixon as the RB Ride of the Week. The 0-2 Bengals need this game, and the Jets run D, while improved over last year’s abomination, is still a bottom quartile unit. It allowed Nick Chubb to score 3 times last week. Mixon leads the NFL in carries through 2 weeks and I expect a busy, top 5 type of day from him.
Leonard Fournette has had great usage the first 2 weeks, but he hasn’t scored. That should change this week, against a Packers’ D that gave up a lot of big gains to David Montgomery last week and is tougher against the pass than the run. Pencil in Lenny for a top 10 performance. In addition to Lenny, another RB ranked outside the top 10 this week who I like for a top 10 finish is D’Andre Swift. If it seems like I’m trying to get as many Lions and Vikings in here as I can, I am. Giddyup!
Moving outside the top 20, there are quite a few guys who I like to overperform expectations this week: C. Patterson at the Seahawks, James Robinson at the Chargers, Zeke Elliott at the Giants, Dameon Pierce at the Bears, and if he plays, Alvin Kamara at the Panthers. All have plus matchups.
Need a sleeper? I’ll go with the Jets’ Michael Carter vs. the Bengals as my RB Sleeper of the Week. He’s still getting the majority of the work, and the Jets have improved on offense. Need one more? Rhamondre Stevenson vs. the Ravens.
Fades:
James Conner comes in banged up, and the Rams have been very stingy against RBs through 2 weeks. In a game where I expect the Cardinals to be trailing, I’ll make Conner my RB Fade of the Week.
Devin Singletary has looked very good so far this year. The issue is opportunities, as he’s in a timeshare, plus there are so many other scoring options on the team. Throw in that the Dolphins have been surprisingly stingy to RBs through 2 weeks (they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position), and I’ll fade him.
I’m going to fade both Seattle RBs. They’re splitting the work, the team runs the slowest offense (and fewest plays) in the league, they won’t see that many scoring opportunities, and the Falcons’ defense is top 10 against the run so far this year.
I’ll fade Melvin Gordon this week. San Francisco is a tough matchup (fewest rushing yards allowed, 5th fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs) and with Gordon only seeing 36% of the snaps so far, he’s clearly the second guy in the share, on an offense that isn’t yet clicking or scoring touchdowns.
I like to be consistent, so I’m fading Cam Akers for the third straight week. In the 6 games he’s played since he returned from injury for last year’s playoffs, his YPC is below 3. That level of sustained ineffectiveness is hard to ignore. I do like that the volume went up last week, and I expect them to be playing with a lead again this week, but this team can’t run the ball effectively.
Look for Another Big Week from Mike Williams
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
As I said last week, if you’ve got one of the consensus “Big 5” WRs (Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, Adams, Diggs), enjoy the high floor and ceiling. You probably won’t ever see me mention any of them in this column because to be honest, there isn’t much to say - they’re all pretty much matchup proof. Tyreek Hill should probably be added to that group and to those that got a discount on him on draft night, well played. On to the mere mortals that play wide receiver:
Mike Williams was one of our Rides last week, and he delivered with a big performance. I don’t expect Keenan Allen to return this week, which means more alpha dog run for Williams in the Chargers’ high-octane passing game. He’s ranked just outside the top 10 this week and I think that’s too low - or maybe that prices in Justin Herbert potentially not playing, or being limited. Assuming Herbert plays, Williams at home against a suspect Jaguars’ pass defense is my WR Ride of the Week.
Last week’s WR Ride of the Week was ARSB, and the experts are at last catching up to the fact that his streak of big performances isn’t a fluke. He’s finally ranked inside the top 10 this week (just barely), and I’m riding him again in what should be a high scoring affair. Let’s update the astounding stat we provided last week - it’s now 8 straight games where ARSB has at least 10 targets and 8 catches, and he’s scored in 7 of those 8. Let those numbers sink in. This is fantasy gold.
A little further down in the rankings, a few WRs ranked in the 20s and low 30s who I’m riding this week are Drake London at Seattle, Michael Pittman vs. KC (assuming he plays), Allen Robinson at the Cardinals, and Adam Thielen vs. the Lions. Thielen hasn’t scored a TD yet this year, which is surprising considering that over the last 4 seasons, he’s scored 39 times in just 54 games. He’s due, and the Lions are a nice matchup.
There are a few WRs ranked outside the top 35 who I’m high on this week. Hunter Renfrow plays at Tennessee against a secondary that won’t be able to cover the Raiders’ weapons, and I think he’ll atone for last week’s fumble in OT. He’s my WR Sleeper of the Week. [injury NOTE - Renfrow has been ruled out, with a concussion] Moving outside the top 40, 3 other lower-ranked receivers who I like this week are DeVanta Smith at Washington, Chris Olave at the Panthers, and Jakobi Meyers against the Ravens [Sunday update - Meyers is NOT expected to play today].
Fades:
I had high hopes for Hollywood Brown this season, and especially for the start of the season with D. Hopkins serving a 6 game suspension. Well, the Cardinals have mostly been a mess, and Brown has been pretty pedestrian. I don’t think that will improve much this week against a Rams defense that has been worse than advertised so far but still has a lot of playmakers. Hollywood has a top 15 ranking this week and I think he’ll struggle to get anywhere close to that - he’s my WR Fade of the Week.
Another receiver who has disappointed fantasy managers so far is JuJu. With just 9 targets and a 12% target share through 2 games, he isn’t getting anything close to the kind of volume he needs to be an every-week fantasy start. He’s going to have some very good games but they’ll be hard to predict. I’m fading him at the Colts.
Here are a few more “name” receivers I’m fading this week - CeeDee Lamb at the Giants, Rashod Bateman at the Patriots, Jerry Jeudy (if he even plays) vs. the 49ers, and Diontae Johnson at Cleveland. All are ranked inside the top 30 and I think they’ll all struggle to give you a WR 1 or 2 finish this week..
This is Not a Decoy
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
Excuse me while I speak to my fantasy brethren who’ve also got Kyle Pitts on their roster. Hey guys, How's it going? I just want to say, WT#*%@!&@!! OK, that’s better. This is the week! No really, I think it is. The Falcons need to get him more involved, and despite what Arthur Smith said the other day, I think they will, starting this Sunday at Seattle. Pitts is my TE Ride of the Week.
I like both of the TEs in the Jax at LAC tilt. Gerald Everett (assuming Herbert plays) and Evan Engram are both ranked outside the top 10 this week and I think both will be busy and should turn in TE1-type performances.
The Vikings clearly saw some matchups against the Eagles that they liked for Irv Smith last week, and after scoring one TD, Smith dropped what would’ve been a second one, and a long one at that. I’ll ride Logan Thomas against that same defense. I think he’ll be a factor in the Carson Wentz revenge game.
Speaking of Irv Smith, he’s my TE Sleeper of the Week. I think he’ll again be a featured part of the Minnesota attack and he’s ranked outside the top 15. If you’re throwing darts at the weak TE position, 2 more names I’d think about are Hunter Henry, who’s been invisible so far this season but who could wake up against a banged up Ravens’ defense, and Tyler Conklin vs. the Bengals.
Fades:
Through 2 games, the 49ers have allowed just 4 catches for 11 yards to the TE position. The disappointment continues for a player who came into the season with pretty high breakout expectations: Albert O is my TE Fade of the Week.
I’ll also fade Zach Ertz against the Rams, who’ve been almost as stingy to the position as the 49ers.
Two more fades: Cole Kmet (again) vs. the Texans, and David Njoku against the Steelers.
Good luck to all this week!
DH
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