Pigskin Papers Take 3: 2022 Week 12
Mahomes to Kelce: Unstoppable
(Published November 29, 2022)
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Welcome to another edition of “Take Two”. If you’re anything like me, you spent Thanksgiving weekend eating too much, drinking too much, and watching too much football (pro, college, and the sport that the rest of the world calls football). Well, here’s an extra slice of pumpkin pie for you - another edition of Take Two! Once again I’ll follow this format: Take One will be a series of takeaways and observations from Week 12, and Take Two will be an another edition of Fun Stats of the Week. Here we go!
*****See the Week 12 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Column Here: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-13 .
Hurts Was Firing on All Cylinders vs. the Pack
TAKE 1 - WEEK 12 TAKEAWAYS:
I think these are the best teams in each conference, after 12 weeks of play: AFC: (1) Kansas City, (2) Buffalo, and (3) Cincinnati; NFC: (1) Dallas, (2) San Francisco, and (3) Philadelphia. On the AFC side, I don’t love what I’ve seen lately from Buffalo, and losing Von Miller is significant. Still, they’re very good on both sides of the ball, their secondary is finally getting healthy, and when they’re playing their best football, they’re truly dominant. I still expect them to win the AFC East and be the #2 seed in the conference. In the NFC, I like Dallas and San Francisco the most because they’ve got outstanding defenses, and they’re both pretty loaded with playmakers on both sides of the ball. I’m not discounting the Eagles, and in all likelihood they’ll be the NFC’s #1 seed, with home field throughout. Plus, they can win with a devastating ground game (more on that in the stats) and that bodes well for the stretch run and playoffs. But I haven’t been impressed with their defense of late.
The Dolphins are at the end of the soft part of their schedule, and they made it through without a stumble. They’ve won 5 straight, over the Steelers, Bears, Lions, Browns, and Texans. Now things get tough. Their next 3 are all on the road, against teams with winning records. They’ll travel to play the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills. We’re about to learn a whole lot about Tua and the Dolphins, and whether they’re legitimate contenders.
I don’t want to put too much emphasis on one home game against an awful defense, but the Jets look like a very different team with Mike White under center, and it bodes well for their playoff chances. This is a good team. Yes, I’m taking about the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets.
I’ll tell you about another good team. The Commanders have won 6 of their last 7. Shhh! Don’t tell anyone. Adding Chase Young to an already disruptive defensive line is only going to make them tougher. I think they’ll make the playoffs, and probably won’t be such an easy out.
While the AFC playoff picture is still pretty muddled with 9 teams legitimately in contention for 7 spots, the NFC has a clearer picture, with 8 teams fighting for 7 spots. In all likelihood, the final 2 wild card slots will come down to 3 teams: the Seahawks, Commanders, and Giants. Sadly, I think the Giants are going to be the odd man out. They’ve been scrappy and resourceful, but too many injuries have piled up, and smoke and mirrors only last so long. On top of that, their remaining schedule is very difficult as they still have to play the Commanders and Eagles twice, plus they’ve got to make a trip to Minnesota. The only team left on their slate with a losing record is the Colts.
Nice job, Trevor Lawrence. That’s what we’ve all been waiting to see. This was the first game in franchise history where the Jaguars won a game after trailing by 7 or more points in the final minute. As for the Ravens, this was the 4th time this season that they blew a 4th quarter lead, and that’s an ominous sign. But the problems aren’t only on defense. Their offense continues to struggle more than you’d expect, and especially in the red zone. The Ravens (7-4) still have a decent shot to get to the playoffs, but I’ll be surprised if the Bengals don’t win the AFC North.
The Bucs should win the NFC South, almost by default. But that was another bad loss Sunday, and nothing about this team inspires confidence right now, including the QB. If any of the other teams in the division can somehow get hot, and that’s a very big if, the automatic playoff berth is there for the taking.
I don’t know who’s had the more disastrous season, the 3-8 Broncos or the 3-8 Rams. They’re definitely 1-2 in some order, and worse, neither one has its first round pick, thanks to the trades that brought them their current starting QBs. The Rams’ latest casualties are Aaron Donald (high ankle sprain, will miss some time) and Allen Robinson (done for the season) - this is a very top-heavy team that started the season with no depth, and now the check has come due. They’ll be lucky to get to 5 wins, which is a historically bad title defense. Denver’s defense has been excellent but unfortunately they’re doing it alone - the offense has scored the fewest points in the league, and shows no signs of getting any better.
The Jaguars and Chargers won their games this week by going for 2 after scoring in the final seconds to pull within 1 point. I can’t recall 2 games ending this way in the same week, and it’s further evidence of the evolution of standard coaching conventions. Part of this change is due to the widespread adoption of advanced analytics, and part of it is simply the old cliche that there is strength in numbers. As more coaches make decisions that were previously thought of as unconventional and/or too risky, those decisions become conventional ones and following the herd becomes easier and is less likely to subject coaches to criticism. Obviously, each coach knows what kind of shape his team is in at the end of 60 minutes, and has a feel for how likely a conversion is. I’m almost always in favor of going for 2, and the win, in these situations. Coaches becoming less conservative and in the process giving their teams better chances to win is a long-overdue, positive development.
Sean - You Might Want to Cover Your Eyes Instead
TAKE 2 - FACTS AND STATS OF THE WEEK:
Saquon Barkley’s TD in the first half against the Cowboys was the Giants’ first TD scored on Thanksgiving Day since 1938 (5 games).
Streaks that continued this week - The Cowboys are still the only team that hasn’t allowed a first quarter TD this season, and the Dolphins are now 8-0 in games Tua has started, and finished.
The Giants-Cowboys game on Thanksgiving Day drew 42 million viewers, breaking the record for the largest TV audience for a regular season NFL game. The prior record was also a Giants game - a Monday night affair vs. the 49ers in December, 1990.
The Cowboys also played in the games that drew the second and third largest TV audiences this season.
Travis Kelce has the most receiving yards by a tight end in the first 11 years of a career. Kelce is only in his 10th season.
Patrick Mahomes now has 38 300-yard passing games, which is the most by any QB in his first 7 seasons. Mahomes is only in his 6th season, and he only played in 1 game during his first season.
The 49ers shut out the Saints on Sunday and it was the first time the Saints were shut out in 332 games - the longest active streak in the NFL. Their last shutout was also at the hands of the 49ers and came in Week 17, 2001.
One of last week’s stats concerned Derek Carr’s 8-2 record in regular season OT games, which was the best in NFL history (minimum 10 games). The Raiders went to OT again this week, and won again. Carr’s record in regular season OT games is now an astounding 9-2.
Since the start of the 2021 season, 7 of the Raiders’ 28 regular season games have gone to OT, the most in the NFL.
Josh Jacobs had 109 yards rushing today..in the OT period. For the full game he ran for 229 yards, the highest single-game rushing total of this season. He also had more than 300 yards from scrimmage, a rare feat.
Jacobs is the only player since at least 1950 with 200+ rushing yards and 75+ receiving yards in a single game.
Jalen Hurts is the only player since at least 1950 to have 150+ rush yards, 150+ passing yards, and multiple TD passes in a single game.
Jalen Hurts had 103 yards rushing in the first quarter on Sunday night - that’s the first time a QB had 100+ rushing yards in a quarter in 30 years.
The Eagles rushed for 363 yards vs. the Packers on Sunday night. That’s the highest team rushing total this season, and the 4th highest total in the last 20 years.
Every team in the NFC South is below .500, and has a negative point differential.
Every team in each of the AFC East and NFC East is above .500. In the NFC East, every team is at least 2 games over .500. In the AFC East, every team has a positive point differential.
The Bills just won games in Ford Field in 2 consecutive weeks. The Lions haven’t done that since 2005.
Micah Parsons is just the 3rd player to have 12+ sacks in each of his first 2 seasons (joining Regie White and Aldon Smith). Sacks became an official stat in 1982.
The Lions own the Rams’ 2023 first round pick (Matt Stafford trade) and the Seahawks own the Broncos’ 2023 first round pick (Russell Wilson trade). If the season ended today, those would both be top 5 picks. Say it with me - yeesh.
Mike White led the Jets to a TD on the opening drive of the team’s week 12 game - their first opening drive TD this season.
Mike White is the first player in NFL history to have more than one game with a 75%+ completion percentage, 300+ passing yards, and 3+ passing TDs in his first 4 career starts.
Jets’ rookie WR Garrett Wilson recorded 2 TD catches in the one game he played with Joe Flacco at QB, and also had 2 receiving TDs in the one game he’s played with Mike White at QB. In 7 games played with Zach Wilson at QB, Wilson had zero TD catches.
More dunking on Zach Wilson: Wilson (4) has thrown one more TD pass for the season than Mike White (3). As we know from the previous stat, Wilson has played 7 full games this season to White’s 1.
Justin Tucker’s NFL-best streak of 65 straight FGs made in the 4th quarter and OT came to an end when he came up short on a 67 yard attempt on the final play of the game on Sunday. Tucker hit a 66 yard FG last year to set the NFL record.
There have been 9 kick return TDs since the start of the 2021 season. Vikings’ returner Kene Nwangwu has 3 of them.
Justin Jefferson Continues to Rewrite the Record Book
Justin Jefferson now has the record for most receiving yards in the first 3 years of a career. He passed both OBJ and Randy Moss on Thursday night.
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in 15 previous seasons as a head coach. The Steelers need to win 5 of their 6 remaining games in order for Tomlin’s streak to extend to 16 seasons.
Bucs’ TE Ko Kieft became the 94th player to catch a TD pass from Tom Brady. That’s the most for any QB.
The Browns scored inside the final minute to tie the game with the Bucs, then won it in OT. It was the first time in Tom Brady’s career that his team held a lead of 7 or more points in the final minute of regulation, and lost the game (Brady’s teams were previously 218-0 in such situations).
Carson Wentz has more TD passes (10) on the season than Russell Wilson (8). Wentz hasn’t played in the last 6 weeks.
The Broncos are averaging 14.3 points per game, which is dead last in the league. If that average held for the season, it would be the second lowest average ppg since 2000 (2018 Cardinals, at 14.1 ppg).
Jamaal Williams scored his 13th rushing TD of the season on Thanksgiving. The only Lions player to ever exceed that total is Barry Sanders, who did it twice (16 in 1991, and 14 in 1989, his rookie season).
The Lions on Thanksgiving Day starting in 2004: 9 straight losses, followed by 4 straight wins, followed by 6 straight losses (total record 4-15).
With 2 more picks thrown on Sunday night, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 9 INTs on the season. Rodgers has only thrown double digit INTs twice in his career, and the last time was 2010.
In the first half against the Texans, the Dolphins scored 30 points, while allowing 32 yards of offense.
The Giants came into Week 12 with just 2 interceptions all season, and they then intercepted Dak Prescott twice in the first half.
Coming into Week 12, the average passing yards for winning teams this season was 225, the lowest total since 2010.
And…CUT!
DH
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