Pigskin Papers 2022 Fantasy Preview Week 13
Trevor Lawrence has Arrived
(Published December 1, updated for injuries and weather Sunday morning, December 3, 2022)
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Welcome to Week 13! The Thanksgiving leftovers are mostly finished, the calendar has turned to December, and that means we’re in the home stretch of the regular season for fantasy football. Have you locked up a playoff berth? Is this a must-win week for you? I’ll try to give you some useful fantasy advice to help you get through.
From the NFL (non-fantasy) perspective, this should be a great week to sit on the couch and watch the games. Of the 15 games on the Week 13 schedule, 6 feature 2 teams with winning records, 2 of which are division games and one of which is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. Let’s go!
In a hurry? CHEATSHEET version of this column: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-cheatsheet-week-13
********SEE ALL OF OUR CONTENT FROM THIS WEEK:
Week 13 Waiver Wire: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-13
Week 12 TAKEAWAYS/STATS OF THE WEEK: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-3-2022-week-12
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WEEK 13 BYES: Arizona, Carolina
SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER UPDATE: No weather issues are expected for the 14 remaining games this week, 7 of which are in domed stadiums.
SUNDAY MORNING INJURY UPDATE REPORT:
Players OUT for Week 13: Stafford (placed on IR), T. Homer, M. Williams, K. Toney, Cooks, D. Njoku, Juwan Johnson
Will Play: Fields, Rodgers
Not expected to play: Mixon, M. Carter
Questionable, Expected to play: Etienne, A. Gibson, Chase, Jeudy, Sutton, Slayton, Gallup, Golladay
GTD: J. Jacobs, Fournette, M. Boone, Deebo, Doubs, Jameson Williams
Offensive Line Note: Miami is likely to be without both starting tackles (T. Armstead and A. Jackson)
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TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: 1. KC (27.5) 2. DAL (27.25) 3. CLE (27) T4. JAX (26.25) T4. LAC (26.25)
Bottom 5: 1. DEN (14.5) 2. IND (16.25) 3. LAR (17) 4. NO (18.25) 5. NYG (19)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. PHI 2. DEN 3. SF 4. HOU 5. CIN
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DET 2. ARI 3. LV 4. MIA 5. KC
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. TEN 4. TB 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. CLE 3. LAC 4. SEA 5. GB
Top 5 vs WR: 1. IND 2. DEN 3. NYG 4. NYJ 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT 2. TEN 3. ATL 4. DET 5. KC
Top 5 vs TE: 1. NO 2. DAL 3. BUF 4. WAS 5. SF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. MIA 4. DET 5. NE
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Mahomes, Ekeler, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a solid showing in Week 12, with more winners than losers. Here is the Week 12 column for those who want to see the results: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-cheatsheet-week-12 .
On to Week 13, the Rides, Fades and Sleepers:
QB - I feel like I have to say something one way or another about Deshaun Watson, back for his first game in close to 700 days, and playing his old team. I’m not listing him below (no recommendation either way) as I really don’t know what to expect, and as bad as they are, the Texans haven’t been a good fantasy matchup for QBs. If you’ve been waiting on him and want to start him, I can’t blame you - go for it. But I’d be cautious and advise waiting a week and especially if you have another decent option (such as Lawrence, Carr, etc.).
Herbert vs. the Raiders? Automatic!
Rides and Sleepers:
Justin Herbert was my QB Ride of the Week last week and he delivered with almost 29 fantasy points, good for QB3 for the week. He’s ranked as the QB5 coming into this week so he’s an obvious name, but I’ll make him my QB Ride of the Week again because I think he’s going to be a top 3 option once again. The Raiders have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs, and in Week 1 of this season Herbert lit them up for 3TDs. That was no fluke - he threw for 3 TDs against them in both Raider games last year, and in 5 career starts vs. the Raiders he’s thrown for multiple TDs every time. This one is easy.
Moving down the rankings, let’s ride Trevor Lawrence, at Detroit. Lawrence (ranked 9th this week) caught fire in the 4th quarter last week and I like him to keep it going against a Lions’ defense that’s gotten better but is still vulnerable to good passing games. They’re allowing over 270 yards passing per game, and a league-worst 45 rushing yards per game to QBs. Put it all together and they’ve allowed the most FPPG to the position. This one should be a fun game with plenty of points - get in on it.
Moving out of the top 10, a few mid-range options I like this week are Jimmy G vs. Miami, Derek Carr against the Chargers, and Jared Goff vs. the Jaguars in the game I just mentioned above. These are all plus matchups, in games that should be high scoring.
If Justin Fields plays this week, he’s very tempting. The Packers just gave up 103 rushing yards to Jalen Hurts - in the first quarter! But this one isn’t without risk so if you’ve got Fields on your roster, pay close attention to the practice reports, including any indications of whether he’ll be limited if he does play. If he’s not running, he’s just another guy at this point in his development. [UPDATE: Fields is expected to start]
I’ll ride Aaron Rodgers, in the same game (assuming he plays). The Bears just made Mike White look like…Aaron Rodgers, and not the one from this season. They’ve played 5 games since they gutted their defense and they’ve allowed more than 30 points in 4 of those. Plus, as you may have heard, Rodgers owns them and the stats back that up. And if Jordan Love is starting instead, he’s a nice sleeper. [UPDATE: Rodgers is expected to start]
My QB Sleeper of the Week is Kenny Pickett. It hasn’t been very good from a fantasy perspective so far, but Pickett is getting better with more starts and he’s also using his legs more. The matchup this week (@ATL) is a decent one - they’re in the bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to QBs. Another sleeper you can consider if you’re truly in need at QB this week is Mike White. The Vikings are a better defense than the Bears, and this is a road game, but the Vikings are also a bottom 10 defense against QBs, just gave up 23 fantasy points to Mac Jones, and have given up a ton of points in their last 3 games.
Fades:
Tom Brady, come on down. You’re my QB Fade of the Week. Did you know - Brady is the QB18 on the season? That’s remarkable when you consider that he’s 4th in the league in passing yards, and was the QB3 last year and the QB7 the year before. The touchdowns just aren’t there and the Bucs’ offense continues to sputter. They had 6 more 3-and-outs last week in a decidedly subpar effort at Cleveland, and now they’ve lost starting LT Tristan Wirfs. Making matters worse is this week’s opponent. The Saints have been a big problem for Brady since he came to Tampa. Stay away.
If you have Tua, you’re probably starting him, but I’d temper expectations. He’s been outstanding, but the Dolphins haven’t played a good defense in more than a month, and a trip to San Francisco is about as tough as it gets. Their defense is in the top 5 in FPPG allowed to QBs, is coming off a shutout, and can bring pressure. Starting LT Terron Armstead could miss this game, amplifying the potential problems for the Miami offense. [UPDATE: Miami is likely to be without both starting offensive tackles for this game]
I’m fading Daniel Jones this week. The Commanders have gotten much better over the last month or so and are no longer an easy defense for QBs. In fact, they’re more the opposite. Washington hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points in 8 straight weeks. The Giants keep losing receivers to injury and I think they’re going to struggle to move the ball in this one. I’ve been on Jones multiple times this season, but this week I’ll pass.
A lot of you play in Superflex leagues, where you an start 2 QBs. Here are a few fairly obvious fades this week - if you’re thinking of starting any of these guys, I’d search for a pivot: Ryan Tannehill at the Eagles, Mac Jones vs. the Bills, Matt Ryan at the Cowboys, and Russell Wilson at the Ravens.
Keep Riding Walker - A 2022 League Winner
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
Since Nick Chubb isn’t eligible (he’s ranked as the RB2 this week), I’m making Kenneth Walker my RB Ride of the Week for the second straight week. It was a good call last week, thanks to 2 rushing TDs - the yardage total wasn’t great though. The Rams have been a fairly strong defense against the run, but they’ve fallen apart and now Aaron Donald is out with an ankle injury. I expect a lot of Walker in this one. Ride him with confidence.
Aaron Jones is a Ride for me this Week. The Bears have really struggled against the run since they traded Roquan Smith, and on the season they’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs. Look for Jones to be busy as both a runner and a receiver, regardless of who plays QB for the Packers this week.
If Travis Etienne is active, hop on board. The Lions have been a generous defense all year, and the 12 rushing TDs they’ve allowed to RBs is 4th most in the NFL. And while we’re here, of course you’re playing Jamaal Williams, the TD machine. He continues to get the bulk of the work, and the Lions love to mash it with him when they get in close. [UPDATE: Etienne is expected to play]
I’ll ride Zeke Elliott again this week. He’s found the end zone in 4 straight games, and the Colts have allowed an RB to score a rushing TD in 3 straight - a nice case of converging trends. I know people want to see Tony Pollard dominate touches, but as long as Zeke is healthy that’s not going happen. Zeke is still very good, and having that 1-2 punch is great for Dallas. Just watch.
Ride Gus Edwards this week. It’s hard to throw on Denver, but teams have been having success against them on the ground of late - including last week when the Panthers’ RB combo put up close to 200 yards on them. Edwards should dominate the RB touches for at least one more week, as J.K. Dobbins is still not quite ready to return.
Moving a little lower in the rankings, I’ll ride both David Montgomery at the Lions and Dameon Pierce vs. the Browns. Both are facing defenses that are bottom 5 in terms of FPPG allowed to RBs, and only the Texans have allowed more rushing yards to RBs than the Packers, who got absolutely gashed last week by any and every Eagles player who ran the ball against them. Pierce was not heavily used as a runner in college and I’m worried that he’s hit a rookie wall as he’s really cooled off over the last month, but I think he’ll get back on track this week against the Browns. He’s ranked outside the top 20 this week.
Kareem Hunt has had a very disappointing season, and especially when you consider that fantasy managers drafted him thinking he’d again be flex-worthy. He’s only gotten more than 10 touches once in the last 6 games, and has mostly fallen off the fantasy radar. It’s certainly risky, but if there was ever a week to roll the dice with him, it’s this one. The Texans continue to get gashed by RBs week in and week out. Miami called off the dogs last week and stopped trying in the second half, and their rushing total is an outlier. The Texans have allowed the most carries, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and FPPG to RBs. They’re this year’s version of the 2021 Jets. I’ll make Hunt my RB Sleeper of the Week.
Another backup RB who I think you can reach for if needed is A.J. Dillon. He scored his first TD since week 1 on Sunday night, and I think this is the kind of game where he could get a decent amount of run. As discussed above ,the Bears have been a soft run defense since Roquan Smith left town. Two other sleepers you can consider: Bam Knight at the Vikings (assuming Michael Carter is out) and if either or both of Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren is out, Benny Snell at the Falcons.
Fades:
Alvin Kamara was my RB Fade of the Week last week and let’s just say, BINGO! Even better, I took my own advice and sat him in my main league, in favor of Michael Pittman. BINGO again! I’m not necessarily done with Kamara for the season, but I’ll again go with him as my RB Fade of the Week this week and especially since he’s ranked just outside the top 10 which I think is way too high. Did you know - all 3 of Kamara’s TDs this season came in one game? The Bucs D isn’t as stout as it once was against the run, but they’re still top 5 in terms of fewest FPPG allowed to RBs. On top of that, Kamara is nicked up, he fumbled twice last week, and Taysom Hill is always a threat to vulture him. I’ll pass.
I’ll also fade Leonard Fournette in the same game. I don’t think he’ll be at 100% if he plays, I don’t think he’ll get more than half of the work if he plays, and the Saints are still one of the stronger defenses up front. They didn't give up a lot to CMC last week, and they’ve been pretty solid against the run all year. [UPDATE - Fournette is a GTD on Monday night]
Devin Singletary is another back in a share situation with a tough matchup this week, so let’s fade him. Singetary’s case is also hampered by the fact that the best rusher on his team, and the one most likely to find the end zone, is the QB. Get this - the Patriots have only allowed 2 RBs to get into the end zone all season long - one rush, one reception. That’s it. Not surprisingly, they’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to the position. Fade.
I’ll stay away from CP84 this week. His usage has gone down (14 or fewer touches in all 4 games since he returned from injury), he hasn’t scored since Week 9, and over the last month or so the Steelers have become a much tougher matchup for RBs.
I’ll also fade Lat Murray. First off, the Broncos only score 14 points per game, so it’s hard to make the case for starting any piece of their offense. Beyond that, the Ravens’ front has been a brick wall over the last month, which unsurprisingly happens to coincide with the arrival of LB Roquan Smith. Over their past 4 games, the Ravens’ defense hasn’t allowed a rushing TD, and no RB has had more than 30 rushing yards against them. Stay away.
D’Andre Swift has gotten 10 or fewer touches in every game since he returned from injury a little over a month ago. He’s scored a few times which has bailed him out, but I don’t know how anyone can start him with such minimal usage. I’m out on Swift until I see a 12 touch (at least) game.
ARSB: Primed for Another Big Stretch Run
WR - The elite Week 13 options at WR is a big group, so I’ll list them here, and I’ll start my Rides below this list: Adams, T. Hill, Diggs, J. Jefferson, Lamb, A.J. Brown. Of the 6, Brown (going against his old team) has the best fantasy matchup. Lamb has the worst.
Rides and Sleepers:
Amon Ra St. Brown is my WR Ride of the Week. He’s been a target monster when fully healthy, and over the last 5 games he’s had at least 8 targets each week. He finally found the end zone again last week, and I think he’ll be peppered with targets again this week, against a Jaguars’ defense that’s in the bottom 10 in terms of FPPG allowed to WRs, and has yielded 13 passing TDs to the position (among the most in the NFL).
If Ja’Marr Chase is active against the Chiefs, you’re playing him. The Chiefs did a good job on Chase in last year’s AFC championship game (he did score, but they held him to 6 catches for 54 yards), but I think he’ll have better success this time around. [UPDATE: Chase is expected to play]
I’ve got 3 rookie Rides for you, all of whom are ranked between 19 and 25 this week: Chris Olave at the Bucs, Garrett Wilson at the Vikings, and Christian Watson at the Bears. Olave has been a steady WR 2 producer all year, with at least 60 yards or a TD in every contest but 2 since Week 1. Wilson is coming off a monster game in Mike White’s first start and is facing a Vikings’ defense that’s allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs. Watson has become a legit big-play threat with a league-best 6 TDs over his last 3 games (on just 11 catches), and is tough to sit right now, even with the low volume.
Two players ranked in the teens who I’m riding this week are Chris Godwin and Christian Kirk. Brady’s struggles to throw deep and to get the ball to Mike Evans have resulted in Godwin seeing elite target volume in the short and intermediate areas, and that should continue with Lattimore likely to shadow Evans as he usually does. Godwin is averaging 11 targets per game over his last 6. As for Kirk, he’s been steady all year, with at least 70 yards or a TD in 7 of 11 contests, I like him against a Lions’ defense that should get Jeff Okudah back, but has allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs.
Moving further down the rankings, I’ll ride Devonta Smith vs. the Titans, Brandon Aiyuk vs. the Dolphins, and George Pickens at the Falcons. All have plus matchups.
Need some WR sleepers? How about Zay Jones at the Lions? I’ll go with him as my WR Sleeper of the Week, in a tasty matchup. Let’s also pencil in Josh Palmer at the Raiders and D.J. Chark vs. the Jaguars.
Fades:
Courtland Sutton is my WR Fade of the Week. You might have expected Sutton to be putting up big numbers with Jerry Jeudy out, but “big numbers” and “Denver offense” are phrases that don’t belong in the same sentence. The Ravens have been very tough on #1 WRs all year (other than the Tyreek Hill game, and their secondary was pretty banged up for that one), and I’ll be very surprised if that changes this week. The Broncos don’t score points, and that makes Sutton a very tough start.
Treylon Burks keeps getting better, but I’ll fade him this week. He hasn’t caught a TD pass yet, and the Eagles have allowed only 3 receiving TDs to WRs since Week 5. Burks will have his opportunities to help your fantasy team down the stretch, but I don’t think it’s happening this week.
I’ll fade Adam Thielen this week against a stingy Jets’ defense that continues to play well. They’ve only allowed one TD catch to a WR over their last 3 games and for the season they’ve allowed the third fewest FPPG to WRs. Thielen is coming off his best game of the season on Thanksgiving Day, but I don’t expect a repeat of that kind of production vs. the Jets.
A few more fades for you: Curtis Samuel at the Giants, Jakobi Meyers vs. the Bills, Drake London vs. the Steelers, and Brandin Cooks vs. the Browns (he’s an every week fade at this point). [UPDATE: Cooks is OUT this week]
This Should be One of “Those” Weeks for Kittle
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
George Kittle is my TE Ride of the Week. The Dolphins have had trouble covering TEs this season - they’ve allowed the 3rd most FPPG to the position including 7 TDs. Kittle has games where he isn’t used that much in the passing game, but I don’t expect this week to be one of them.
I’ll go ahead and ride Dalton Schultz again this week, in a neutral matchup with the Colts. He’s averaging 13 FPPG with Dak in the lineup, and I trust the connection.
Gerald Everett hasn’t scored a TD since October 2, but he did score the game-winning 2-pointer last week vs. the Cardinals. I’ll ride him this week against a Raiders’ defense that’s bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to TEs, in what could be another Wild AFC West shootout.
Dawson Knox is very hard to trust, but so are most TEs. I’ll ride him this week against a New England defense that’s tough against most positions, but not TEs. They’re bottom 5 vs. the position for the season on a FPPG basis, and they’ve gotten more vulnerable to TEs as the season has worn on.
Tyler Conklin (@Min) and Foster Moreau (vs. LAC) also make the Rides list this week from further down in the rankings, and this is easily the most TEs I’ve listed for a week this entire season. There are a number of favorable matchups, including these 2.
If Justin Fields starts, I think you can trust Cole Kmet against a Packers’ D that’s given up 6 TD catches to TEs on the season and is a bottom 10 defense vs. the position. Kmet and Fields had it going on before Fields got hurt. Kmet is my TE Sleeper of the Week, but if Fields is out, I’d stay away. [UPDATE: Fields is expected to start]
Fades:
Hunter Henry is coming off his best game of the season, but he’s my TE Fade of the Week. He has yet to top 4 catches in a week, and the Bills are one of 2 teams (Jets) that still hasn’t allowed a TE to score this season. They’ve allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to TEs.
The Saints have allowed the fewest FPPG to TEs, and with Cade Otton and Cam Brate now splitting the snaps pretty evenly, both are Fades for me this week.
Some more TE Fades for Week 13: Mike Gesicki at the 49ers, Colts TEs at the Cowboys, Austin Hooper at the Eagles, and Robert Tonyan at the Bears. OK, we’re back to normal on the horribly weak TE position.
PK & D/ST: See the Week 13 Waiver Wire column for this week’s top streaming options: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-13 .
13 is a lucky number! Good luck to all this week.
DH
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