Pigskin Papers Take 2: 2022 Week 9

Justin Fields has Arrived

(Published November 8, 2022)

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Welcome to another edition of “Take Two”. Each week, I’m giving you 2 or 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, and noting any related fantasy impact. This week, I’ve got 2 takes for you. No, this week I won’t be writing about Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Matt Stafford. It’s time to move on, for now. But I will be writing about the QB position again. I’ve probably discussed it a little too much this year, but the changing of the guard at the elite level of the position, which has been happening for about 5 years now, is one of the most consequential stories in the NFL. Out with the old (the Mannings, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers, and eventually Brady and Rodgers) and in with the new (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, and the other young guns).

Tua is Making his Mark

TAKE ONE: Teams Are Getting Answers on Their Young QBs

QB is the most important position in any of the 4 major sports, and finding a really good one is a huge key to an NFL franchise’s success. Across the last 5 NFL Drafts, slightly more than half of NFL teams took a QB in Round 1 or the first half of Round 2, hoping to hit pay dirt. The Jets did it TWICE. A bunch of those teams came into this season still needing to learn a lot more about whether they have their guy, or need to keep looking.

I’ll drop 2 of the years from the analysis - 2018, because the answers on those QBs are already in, and 2022, because it’s too early to judge rookie QBs. Listed below are the 12 teams that came into this season with a starting QB who was taken in Round 1 or 2 of the 2019, 2020, or 2021 NFL Draft:

ARI: Kyler Murray, 2019*

CHI: Justin Fields, 2021

CIN: Joe Burrow, 2020*

HOU: Davis Mills, 2021

JAC: Trevor Lawrence, 2021

LAC: Justin Herbert, 2020*

MIA: Tua, 2020

NE: Mac Jones, 2021

NYG: Daniel Jones, 2019

NYJ: Zach Wilson, 2021

PHI: Jalen Hurts, 2020

SF: Trey Lance, 2021

It’s a big list. An asterisk signifies a team that knew before this season started that it had found its franchise signal-caller in the draft. The Cardinals already gave Kyler Murray his next contract, and I don’t think anyone would argue with Burrow or Herbert after their first 2 campaigns. So that leaves 9 teams that came into this year needing to learn more about its young QB. You can throw out the 49ers, since Trey Lance was lost for the season in Week 1. Of the remaining 8, I’ll look at them year-by-year, since year 2 is much less of a make or break year than year 3, and so on. Through 9 weeks of this season, a lot has been revealed, and as you’d expect the report cards vary from very good, to very bad, to inconclusive. The good news is that each team is learning a lot of what it needs to know as this season unfolds.

The only 4th year player in the group is Daniel Jones, and before the season the Giants declined to exercise a 5th year option on Jones. That’s not surprising, as Jones struggled with turnovers and injuries through his first 3 seasons, and led a team that lost most of its games. Jones’s play has been greatly improved this year, and bringing in a new coaching staff led by Brian Daboll has clearly helped Jones develop as a player and leader. The turnovers are down, he’s using his legs to make plays, and despite a lack of receiving weapons, he’s doing his part to help the team get wins. Is he ever going to be elite? Probably not. Can you win playoff games with him? Probably. What the Giants do with Jones this offseason is going to be interesting. The transition tag is a possibility, as is the franchise tag, if they don’t re-sign him or decide to move on from him. Saquon Barkley is also in the last year of his contract, so GM Joe Schoen will have his hands full. Stay tuned, and keep a close eye on how Jones plays as the Giants make their playoff push.

The 2 third year players on the list are the most interesting. Tua and Jalen Hurts are forever linked from their time together at Alabama. In both cases, there were questions and doubts after 2 seasons, and in both cases the team made a big effort to bring in more talent to help them develop and succeed. Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown are elite weapons and each has made a huge difference. Miami also shored up a very bad O-line and an underwhelming RB group, while bringing in a new coaching staff.

I think it’s safe to say that the Eagles have found their guy. Hurts has made the leap this season. Yes, he still misses some throws and will probably never have great accuracy, but he’s improved in that area and has developed into one of the most dangerous and lethal dual-threat QBs in the league, and is leading a very efficient and explosive offense. Franchise QBs usually get drafted in the first half of Round 1. The Eagles got Hurts near the middle of Round 2 and have to be pinching themselves.

Tua has also taken a big step forward this season, despite getting hurt again, in one of the scarier on-field moments in recent years. That said, I think the jury is still out on whether Miami has found a true franchise QB - something it’s been looking for since Dan Marino retired more than 20 years ago. Having 2 of the fastest WRs in the league at his disposal has surely helped, and Tua’s best strengths - accuracy, quick processing, and getting the ball out quickly - have been on display. Miami has one of the league’s top passing offenses, and Tua is putting up excellent numbers. Tua’s lack of elite arm strength and his trepidation to use his mobility have also been on display. Tua is one of the more polarizing players in the league and there’s still no consensus on how good he ultimately can be. The second half of the season, plus playoffs if Miami gets there, will tell the team a lot more of what it needs to know. But so far, so good.

The 6 sophomore QBs who came into the season with starting jobs have been a pretty big disappointment this year, as a group. I wrote about this a few weeks ago: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-3-2002-week-7 . One big change since then has been the emergence of Justin Fields over the last month. I have no idea why it took the Bears such a long time to figure out that it might be a good idea to call some designed runs for Fields, and to lean into his elite combination of size, speed, and athleticism, but here we are and the last month has been astonishing when you consider how awful Fields and the Bears looked in September and early October. Fields is figuring it out right in front of our eyes, and the signs are very promising. The addition of Chase Claypool will also help. The Bears have to be feeling pretty good about where Fields is at this stage in his development. Let’s see if the excellent play continues.

As for the rest of the class of 2021, it’s been pretty ugly. Lawrence continues to be up and down - he sometimes shows the elite traits that made him the top QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and at other times he makes too many mistakes and bad decisions. Zach Wilson’s Jets are 6-3, but he hasn’t shown much development thus far, and Mac Jones has digressed after a promising rookie season where he looked like the best of the group. Neither the Jets nor the Patriots - both of whom have good rosters - can be feeling all that good about its second year signal caller at this point in year 2, especially since in both cases they’ve seen a backup step in and have better success throwing the ball. Finally, Davis Mills is probably not the long-term answer in Houston, and I think they know that and the Texans will probably be in the sweepstakes for one of the top QBs in the 2023 draft. The good news there is that they should have one of the first 2 or 3 draft picks. Mills was a second rounder, and I don’t expect any of the 5 teams that took a QB in Round 1 in 2021 to move on from their young starter after just 2 years, although that could depend on what happens during the rest of this season and I’d especially watch the Jets, who could be in the market for a QB once again.

FANTASY IMPACT: Fields is a monster right now - he’s the QB1 over the last 4 weeks, and Tua is a top 10 QB this season, on a fantasy points per game basis. Daniel Jones and Lawrence have been solid but unspectacular QB2s. The rest of the QBs mentioned in this section have been mostly unstartable in fantasy, and obviously, the play of all of these QBs has impacted the skill position players around them. At the high end, Tua is supporting 2 top 10 WRs right now. On the flip side, it’s hard to trust any WRs on the Jets or Texans.

The King Rides Again

TAKE TWO - I’m not sure the Chiefs and Titans Were Playing the Same Sport

The marquee matchup of Week 9 was the Sunday night tilt between the Chiefs and Titans, with both clubs sitting at 5-2 and in first place in their respective divisions. These powerhouses were the top 2 seeds in the AFC last year. The game didn’t disappoint, as it went to overtime at 17-17, with the host Chiefs ultimately eking out a 20-17 victory. But what was really interesting from this game was the contrast in styles of the 2 teams. As you’ll see, “contrast in styles” doesn’t even begin to describe the game.

If you look at the stats from this one, it’s difficult to believe that this was 2 NFL teams playing in the same century. It felt more like a High School team playing against an Arena League team. Patrick Mahomes attempted a career high 68 passes, completing 43 of them for 446 yards - his arm should’ve fallen off! His opposite number, rookie Malik Willis, completed all of 5 passes, on just 16 attempts, for 80 yards, and 48 of those yards came on the Titans’ very first play from scrimmage! The Titans didn’t have a single reception by a wide receiver all game. On the flip side, the Chiefs’ 3-man RB committee gained a grand total of 14 rushing yards on 12 carries, while Derrick Henry ran the ball 17 times for 115 yards and 2 TDs. No Chief other than Mahomes had more than 5 rushing yards. The Chiefs had more than double the total yardage of the Titans, and possessed the ball for a little more than 60% of the game. Sacks, sack yardage, penalties and penalty yardage were close to even. The Chiefs committed 1 turnover and the Titans didn’t turn the ball over.

So the stats were bizarre, and I haven’t even told you the craziest part. The Titans scored a TD with a little over 5 minutes left in the first half, which put them up 14-9. From that point forward, they didn’t record a single first down, including in OT. So having heard all of that I’ll ask the obvious question: How was this game tied after 60 minutes?

The answer is twofold: (1) the Titans are a very good, tough, and resilient team that for years has had great success using a different offensive style than the rest of the league and (2) the NFL continues to change, and more teams are finding success using a more balanced rush-pass attack than we’ve seen for most of the 2000s.

On point 1, the Titans are very well coached, and they do 3 things really well: running the ball, stopping the run, and getting after the passer. Those 3 things are not minor attributes - they’re huge. The Titans are one of those rare teams that regardless of opponent can go into a game saying “we play this way, you know what’s coming, try to beat us.” Still, this week’s game was unusual, even for them. I can’t recall a closer game with stranger stats than this one, but if you watched it, it didn’t look like a total mismatch. If anything, the game showed that in the NFL in 2022, there’s more than 1 way to skin a cat.

I wrote earlier this season about how scoring and passing are way down this year. Meanwhile, rushing is up and especially in the last few weeks, and as defenses continue to use 2-high looks to take away big plays, more and more teams seem content to plod their way down the field, using a better mix of running and passing than we’ve seen for most of the 2000s. Plus, more QBs are making big contributions with runs. The Titans clearly don’t want Malik Willis throwing the ball very much, and so their last 2 games have been an extreme and few teams have the personnel to play the way they’ve been playing. Still, it’s more evidence that the NFL is changing. In Week 9, these teams all won while getting less than 200 yards passing from their QBs: BAL, DET, NE, and NYJ. For the week, only Mahomes and Tua eclipsed 300 yards passing. Yes, 6 teams were on bye, but look up any week from the last few years and you’re likely to find at least 4 or 5 QBs with 300+ passing yards, and sometimes a lot more than that.

FANTASY IMPACT: WRs and TEs from several NFL teams have been largely unplayable for most of the season - The Titans, Giants, Falcons, Texans and until recently, the Bears all fit this description. Only in the case of the Texans and Bears (until recently) is this due to ineptitude. In the case of the Giants, WR and TE injuries and an offense that spreads the ball around and throws a lot to its RBs is the reason, and in the case of the Titans and Falcons, it’s because they’re run-first offenses that don’t throw the ball much, even when they’re trailing. Several other teams have been more run-heavy than we’ve grown accustomed to, and passing numbers are down all over the league outside of a few places. There is one plus aide to this shift which is the resurgence of running backs as fantasy stars. We’ll see if these trends continue throughout the season, but fantasy managers have had to adjust to these changing tides, and team-specific trends. Cue to all the Kyle Pitts managers nodding their heads and pouring themselves a stiff drink. Including me.

And…CUT!