Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 10

(Published November 10, 2022, updated for Injuries and Weather, Sunday morning 11/13/22 @8:30 a.m.)

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Welcome to NFL Week 10. We’re hitting a critical stretch for the fantasy regular season, so let’s get right to it. A big story to watch this week is Josh Allen’s elbow, which could sideline the top fantasy scorer in all the land for this week, and possibly longer. We’ve also got another early morning Sunday game from Europe on tap, as the Bucs and Seahawks will play the NFL’s first-ever game in Germany. So make sure your lineup is set, fry up some early morning bratwurst, and crack an imported lager. Prost!

WEEK 10 BYES: Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Jets

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INJURY REPORT - UPDATED SUNDAY MORNING 8:30 a.m.:

Players declared OUT for Week 10: Deon Jackson, M. Ingram, McKissic, J. Chase, K. Allen, Mike Williams, Hardman, Renfrow (IR), Doubs, Waller (IR), Njoku.

Questionable, Expected to Play: J. Allen, Tannehill, J. Taylor, A. Jones, Kyren Williams, E. Mitchell, Deebo, Cooks, Landry, Golladay, T. Burks, N. Collins, C. Watson, E. Engram

Questionable, not expected to play: Stafford, K. Murray (Back-ups are Wolford and C. McCoy - bit of a downgrade for all pass catchers)

True GTD: Zeke Elliott, J. McKinnon

SUNDAY WEATHER REPORT: At long last, colder weather makes its debut for 2022, with multiple games in the northeast and midwest that will have temps in the 30s and 40s. The good news is that in most places, the colder weather won’t be accompanied by precipitation or strong winds. The worst weather spot is likely to be…wait for it… Buffalo, with a roughly 50% chance of rain and moderate winds.

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Team Offense Report: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week…WAIT, CHICAGO? They were a weekly bottom 5 for most of the first half of the season:

Top 5: 1. KC (30) 2. PHI (27.5) T3. MIA (26.25) T3. SF (26.25) 5. CHI (25.75)

Bottom 5: 1. WAS (16.5) 2. HOU (17) T3. IND (18) T3. DEN (18) 5. GB (18.75)

Team Defense Report:

Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN, 2. PHI, 3. BUF, 4. HOU, 5. CIN

Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LV, 2. MIA, 3. DET, 4. KC, 5. PIT

Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF, 2. NE, 3. TEN, 4. DAL, 5. MIN

Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU, 2. LAC, 3. CAR, 4. CHI, 5. CLE

Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN, 2. IND, 3. SEA, 4. NYG, 5. HOU

Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT, 2. ATL, 3. TEN, 4. DET, 5. BAL

Top 5 vs TE: 1. NO, 2. WAS, 3. BUF, 4. DAL, 5. CHI

Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA, 2. ARI, 3. LV, 4. DET, 5. MIA

Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Ekeler, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades and Sleepers had another strong week in Week 9, led by our quartet of Fades of the Week, all of whom behaved accordingly, and completely flopped: QB Stafford, RB CEH, WR Pittman, and TE Pitts. Anyone who started that quartet almost certainly had a lineup from Hell and got a loss, even if they also started Joe Mixon. here’s last week’s column if you want to see all of the Week 9 picks: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-9 .

OK, let’s GO!

QB

Rides and Sleepers:

I’ve seen enough. Justin Fields, consensus-ranked as the QB5 this week, is my QB Ride of the Week. He was the QB1 last week (setting a regular season record for rushing yards by a QB), he’s the QB1 over the last 4 weeks, and this week he’s at home against a very bad Lions’ defense that’s allowed the third most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs. There are lots of you out there who have Fields as your QB2. I suspect Josh Allen isn’t going to play, and my advice is that unless your QB1 is Mahomes or Hurts, start Fields this week.
Tua is ranked one spot ahead of Fields this week, which makes him another obvious start, but I list him here because this is another instance of a guy who many of you have as a QB2. I’d start Tua this week over bigger name guys like Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Dak, or Brady, for example. Tua’s matchup (the Browns) is pretty neutral, but I like him to keep it going this week, back at home after 2 straight games in the upper midwest.
Moving just outside this week’s top 10, I’m making a Ride call on Tom Brady, who I think might be on the verge of much better production. Did you know he’s second in the NFL in passing yards? Well he is, and while he has struggled at times this year and the Seattle defense is playing well right now, I think Brady will move the ball on them, and the passing TDs will finally come.
I’ll also ride Trevor Lawrence at the Chiefs, in a game where the Jaguars will need to score to keep up.
My QB Sleeper of the Week is Marcus Mariota at the Panthers - who’ve given up 79 points in their last 2 games, including 37 to Mariota (250 yards, 3 TDs) and these same Falcons 2 weeks ago.
Another sleeper I’d consider this week is Russell Wilson - yep, it’s gotten so bad that he’s now being ranked down near 20 most weeks. The Broncos won’t be able to run it on the Titans, but you can throw on them and I think Russ will. I also think you can consider Jared Goff at the Bears if you’re stuck this week. The Bears are another team that’s given up 75+ points over the last 2 weeks.

Fades:

I’ll make Kirk Cousins my QB Fade of the Week this week, at the Bills. The Bills have been a top 3 defense against the pass and against QBs for 25 games and counting, going back to the start of last season. They’re especially tough at home. Patrick Mahomes (at home) is the only QB that’s scored more than 16 fantasy points on this defense this season, and nobody has broken 20. On a side note, I like Cousins a little better this week if Josh Allen doesn’t play. But I’d still look elsewhere. I’m starting Goff over him in my main league.
Two high profile QBs I’m fading this week are Aaron Rodgers vs. the Cowboys (another defense that hasn’t allowed a QB to get to 20 fantasy points in a game this year), and Justin Herbert at the 49ers. Injured receivers and other problems have significantly impacted both of these QBs, and going against these 2 defenses isn’t a good place to right the ship. True story - through 9 weeks, both of these QBs are outside the top 12 in FPPG. They aren’t fantasy QB1s.
I don’t love Daniel Jones this week. As bad as the Texans have been this year, they’ve been stingy to QBs, allowing the 4th fewest FPPG to the position and only 7 TD passes which is second only to Denver (4). A big part of this is how bad they’ve been against the run - it’s a quintessential funnel defense. This figures to be a very, VERY tasty matchup for Saquon.
Speaking of that nasty, top-ranked Denver pass D, don’t even think about starting Ryan Tannehill (or Malik Willis if he’s the starter again) against the Broncos. They’re that good, and the Titans don’t throw the ball anyway. Another QB2 with a. very bad matchup this week is Taylor Heinicke at the Eagles on Monday night. Sam Ehlinger has the best matchup of all, going against the Raiders and a defense that’s given up the most FPPG to QBs. Nope, don’t do it.

RB

Rides and Sleepers:

Saquon and CMC are in huge smash spots this week, but they’re too elite for this exercise. So moving down the rankings a bit, Travis Etienne is on a serious heater, and he’s my RB Ride of the Week. The dude is fast, and elusive. His highlights are fun to watch. He’s the RB 3 over the last 3 weeks - getting the backfield to himself after the James Robinson trade has turned him into a fantasy stud. He’s gone over 100 yards rushing in 3 straight games, with 4 TDs in that span. Hopefully he’ll start to get the kind of target volume we expected, on top of that rushing production. The matchup against KC is a positive one, as they’re bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to RBs.
I like Josh Jacobs this week vs. the Colts, who are pretty middle of the pack against RBs. The Colts are a mess on offense right now and can’t get first downs. I think the Raiders will dominate time of possession in this contest, which sets up well for a big workload for Jacobs.
Moving outside the top 10 in the rankings, there are several RBs I like this week in the RB2 range: D’Onta Foreman vs ATL (he scored 3 TDs against them 2 weeks ago), Tony Pollard at GB (even if Zeke plays, although if Zeke plays he’s more of a flex for me, but still playable for sure), David Montgomery vs. DET and in the same game, Jamaal Williams at CHI. These are all plus matchups against defenses that can be run on.
My RB Sleeper of the Week is Jeff Wilson vs. the Browns. He’s technically the backup to Raheem Mostert, but he got plenty of touches last week and this feels like a pretty even split going forward, so at the RB 30 on the week, give me Wilson as a value play - I’m talking to you, DFS players. The Browns have allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs, including 12 total TDs to the position.
Another sleeper I’d consider, if you’re in need at the position, is Tyler Allgeier - even with Patterson back. Allgeier has really run the ball well (including last week where he averaged 10 YPC on 10 rushes) and you saw what Joe Mixon did to the Panthers last week - there should be enough to go around.

Fades:

Dameon Pierce has been a real bright spot on an awful offense. He’s been running with anger and passion, but now he’s nursing 2 separate upper body injuries, and the Giants are a pretty physical defense. I love what we’re seeing from Pierce but given his running style, this might be a tough injury for him to deal with - he’s my RB Fade of the Week.
D’Andre Swift is supremely talented, and the Bears are a good matchup. The problem right now is usage, which makes Swift very hard to plug into your ilineup, despite the temptation to do so. In the 2 games he’s played since returning from injury, he’s got just 15 total touches - 7 carries and 8 catches, and last week he only played 16% of the snaps. Until there’s a clear indication that the usage will increase, I can’t get behind playing Swift.
I’ve had a lot of success fading Najee Harris this year and I’ll do it again. The Saints are a tough run defense, and Harris isn’t dominating touches like he did last year. You’re playing Najee if you have him, I just don’t expect a big game.
I’ll fade Zeke, who I think will play, but might have his workload limited due to the knee injury. It’s a decent matchup, but I don’t think he’ll get enough touches. If you play him, you’re hoping for a goal-line TD, which is certainly possible.
Some team Fades: all Rams RBs, all Chiefs RBs (this 3-headed committee is brutal), all Bills RBs (ditto, I think), and all Broncos RBs (the Titans, who allow the fewest FPPG to the position).

WR

Rides and Sleepers:

Amon-Ra, where have you been? Injuries have slowed the Sun God, but he’s ready to shine this week, at the Bears who’ve traded away key defensive pieces this year. With Hockenson gone and Swift’s touches being managed, ARSB had a 38% target share last week. ARSB is my WR Ride of the Week.
A.J. Brown is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 this week and that’s too low - the Commanders have struggled vs. receivers all year (5th most FPPG allowed to the position), and Brown is scratching at the elite level at the position.
Jaylen Waddle is also ranked right near the bottom of the top 10 and he’s a Ride for me. Tyreek Hill is having a historic season, so Waddle isn’t getting as much buzz as he should. He’s a top 10 fantasy WR on the season and has been very consistent. The Browns are a middle of the road pass defense, but against this duo of receivers you can throw some of that out the window - for now, this passing attack is impossible to defend.
Keep riding Amari Cooper - The best receiver who is getting zero buzz this season. Did you know that Cooper is the WR11 on the season (Half PPR)? He is, and he’s scored in 3 of his last 4. Miami keeps getting into shootouts and while they’ve been better of late, they’ve still allowed a lot of production to WRs.
I’ll fire up 2 WRs who are coming off Week 9 duds and are looking to rebound: D.J. Moore and Devonta Smith. A little history is relevant - 2 weeks ago, Moore had his best game of the season against this week’s opponent (ATL), to the tune of a top 5 finish for the week, and in Week 3, Smith had his best game of the season and was the #1 WR for the week against this week’s opponent, the Commanders.
Here are 3 mid-ranked WR2s who I like this week: JuJu vs. the Jaguars, Christian Kirk at the Chiefs and Chris Olave at the Steelers. All 3 have plus matchups, in games where the offense is going to need to throw a lot to find success.
Moving further down the rankings, I feel good about Darnell Mooney at home against the Lions (4th most FPPG to WRs) and Jerry Jeudy at the Titans (3rd most FPPG to WRs).
Sleeper time - If you’re stuck, here are some guys who are lower ranked and are flex worthy this week: Mecole Hardman vs. the Jaguars, Terrance Marshall vs. the Falcons, Zay Jones at the Chiefs, and Chase Claypool vs. the Bears. I’ll make Marshall my WR Sleeper of the Week. [SUNDAY UPDATE: Hardman is OUT this week]

Fades:

I’ll make Deebo my WR Fade of the Week. I don’t trust the health, and the Chargers are a fairly difficult matchup for WRs (3rd fewest yards allowed to WRs on the season). You drafted Deebo to be a top 5 WR this season - this isn’t the week for that to start happening.
I can’t start Brandin Cooks until further notice - it’s a bad situation both on and off the field, and this week’s opponent (the NYG) has been very tough on WRs all year - they’ve given up the 4th fewest FPPG to the position and just 5 WR TDs all season.
I also can’t start Michael Pittman, which is a shame given how tasty the matchup is (Raiders). This offense is broken. This team is broken.
3 more pretty easy Fades for me: Keenan Allen at the 49ers, Adam Thielen at the Bills, and Curtis Samuel at the Eagles.
You can’t consider a Titans WR most weeks - they didn’t get a single CATCH from a WR last week. This week, starting one would be certifiable - Sunday’s opponent (DEN) is by far the stingiest defense to WRs. This is weakness against strength, squared.

TE

Rides and Sleepers:

Greg Dulcich is my TE Ride of the Week. Denver is going to need to throw a lot in this one, and Dulcich has quickly become a reliable and favorite target for Russ. Am I calling for a huge week? No. But if you can get 12 fantasy points from your TE that’s a win and I think Dulcich can deliver that.
Listen up folks, TE is just a bad position and outside of maybe 5 guys who are no-brainer weekly starts, you’re just hoping for 60 yards and/or a TD. So here are a few guys who I think can get you that this week: C. Otton vs. SEA, T. Higbee vs. ARI, and K. Kmet vs. DET.
Just a hunch, but it’s now been 2 games since Taysom Hill visited the end zone and that’s his longest drought of the year. Against the Steelers, why not? If you’ve been playing the Taysom Hill guessing game this year, this is as good a week as any to go for it.
If David Njoku plays, fire him up at Miami. Ditto Evan Engram at the Chiefs. Again - you aren’t looking for all that much. Both have favorable matchups. [SUNDAY UPDATE: Njoku is OUT, Engram is expected to play]
Dawson Knox is ranked as the TE20 this week, so I’ll make him my TE Sleeper of the Week. The Vikings are in the bottom 10 of FPPG allowed to TEs.

Fades:

Pat Freiermuth is my TE Fade of the Week and this is all about the matchup. I like Freirmuth for the rest of the season, and especially with Chase Claypool gone from the offense. The Saints just don’t give up much to the position - Isaiah Likely did become the first TE to score on them last week, but that was his only catch and they’re still the #1 defense vs. the position.
I’ll also fade Robert Tonyan against Dallas, and Gerald Everett at the 49ers. Both are bad matchups, and both of these TEs have been pretty inconsistent of late.
Mike Gesicki is another TE who is pretty hit or miss, facing a bad matchup this week (CLE - which has allowed only one TD to a TE all year). I’ll fade him.

PK and D/ST: See the Week 10 Waiver Wire column for streamer suggestions at these 2 positions: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-2022-waiver-wire-week-10 .

WEEK 9 RECAP: here’s the link to the Week 9 takeaways and recap column: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-2-2022-week-9 .

GOOD LUCK to all in Week 10!

DH

***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***

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