Pigskin Papers Take 2: 2022 Week 8
Hurts and Philadelphia are Soaring
(Published November 1, 2022)
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Welcome to another edition of “Take Two”. Each week, I’m giving you 2 or 3 big takeaways from that week’s NFL action, and noting any related fantasy impact. This week, I’ve got 2 takes. In the Week 6 column, I included a whole bunch of interesting NFL stats and factoids and the reaction was positive, so I’m running that back this week.
Before we dive in, two of my recent takes were that the oldest first string QBs in the NFL (Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Stafford), really look like old QBs, and that the sophomore class of Round 1 QBs (Lawrence, Z. Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Mac Jones) is starting to look like a pretty big whiff. Well, things didn't get much better this week, on either account. Ryan was benched before Week 8 and Lance is out for the season, but of the other 7 QBs covered in these 2 takes, only Mac Jones won his game this week (and it was against the Jets, so one of the sophomore QBs had to win that one). These 7 QBs didn't all play poorly in Week 8 - in fact, Justin Fields had a good game against a stout defense and continued to show some encouraging development. But outside of Fields, none of them played particularly well and a couple continued to play pretty poorly. I’ll keep monitoring these 2 big stories.
Here we go - Week 8, Take TWO!
******* See the WEEK 8 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN*****: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-9
PART I - Week 8 Takeaways
The Shield Should Say: Warning - Bad Football Approaching
TAKE ONE: Thursday Night Football is a Bad Product, But There’s a Fix!
Raise your hand if you’ve enjoyed most of the Thursday games this season. I wish I could see all of the hands not going up. While it’s great having another night of NFL action each week, many of the games have been tough watches and there’s a growing consensus that Thursday Night Football isn’t a good product. I won’t get into the announcers and other broadcast matters. The games themselves are often sloppy and low scoring, and that’s not new this season. One likely cause is that teams that have to play on Thursday don’t have a full week to recover and to prepare. Due to the short week, it’s also more likely for players who got dinged up the prior week to either miss Thursday games or to play and get reinjured than is the case for Sunday or Monday games. For a league that preaches a commitment to player safety, you’d think they’d reconsider how they schedule Thursday Night Football. They won’t do that, because making as much money as possible is a much more important priority for the owners.
In Weeks 5 and 6 this season, the 2 Thursday games produced one TD, combined. The winning team of each of those games scored 12 points. I joked that during halftime of the Broncos-Colts game in Week 5, I watched an episode of “Dahmer” before tuning back to the game in the 4th quarter, and the Netflix show was less gruesome and more fun to watch. The games haven’t all been as terrible as that one - Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 2 was an entertaining game - but for the most part, it’s been bad football that’s hard to watch. If I was Amazon Prime, I’d be taking my package to the nearest Whole Foods and returning it for a full refund.
Fixing this isn’t impossible, but it would cost the league some money as fewer weeks would feature Thursday games. So it won’t happen. Here’s my idea anyway: Outside of Week 1, Thursday games should only be contested by teams coming off of a bye. That gives those teams ample time to recover and prepare. Week 1 is fine as an exception, because nobody played a real game the week before. So if the byes ran from Weeks 6 to 14 with no weeks skipped, there could still be 10 TNF games, instead of the 17 we have now (there is no Thursday game in Week 18). So it’s a loss of 7 prime time games. This plan probably would also necessitate only having 2 Thankgsgiving Day games. Fine with me. Seems like a good tradeoff to give us decent football games, and to better protect the players from injury.
FANTASY IMPACT - There’s not much to say here. Thursday games aren’t ideal for fantasy for several reasons. Having one game played 3 days before the rest of the slate can create difficult lineup decisions because of uncertain availability of some players at the time Thursday games kick off. Thursday games also create occasional situations where a player who can’t suit up on Thursday could’ve played on Sunday or Monday, with the added recovery time. And finally, the Thursday games have tended to be a little lower scoring. It is what it is.
TAKE TWO - At This Juncture of the Season, There Are Only 3 Excellent Teams.
When most NFL seasons hit the mid-point, you can make a case for at least 6 or 7 teams winning the Super Bowl. Last year at this time, we had a bunch of teams with very good records and a couple of others, like Kansas City, who started slow but were still lurking and had to be considered contenders. It felt pretty wide open and the field of realistic Super Bowl winners was at least 8 teams deep. This year? Through 8 weeks, only 3 teams have separated themselves. Buffalo (6-1), Philadelphia (7-0), and Kansas City (5-2) all look pretty scary. Point differential is often a decent indicator of relative strength and weakness, and these are the top 3 squads by a decent margin, with each of them having outscored their opponents by at least 7 points per game. Buffalo is way out in front of the entire league with an average scoring margin of +15 points.
Are there other good teams after the top 3? Definitely, and the middle class of the NFL is especially large this year. While few teams have separated themselves at the top, it’s also true that only a few clubs have been completely left behind at the bottom. There’s plenty of time for other teams to emerge and join the contender conversation. Dallas (6-2, and the team with the 4th best average scoring margin) can play very good defense and they’re 4th on my power list and especially if their offense can continue rounding into form now that Dak is back. The Ravens and 49ers are on my radar too, and both made big deals to improve themselves. Minnesota only has 1 loss and just added another big weapon - I just need to see them beat some better teams. They were my preseason pick to win the NFC North. The Giants and Seahawks are this year’s best feel-good stories, and I think both are good teams but I don’t see them as true contenders - not yet, anyway. Meanwhile, the top 3 preseason favorites in the NFC - Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and the LA Rams - all look very flawed right now and if the season ended today, none would even make the playoffs. Who saw that coming?
Of course, the season doesn’t end today and there’s a whole lot of football left to be played. We haven’t heard the last from the 3 teams I just mentioned and things can change quickly. I’ll revisit this in a few weeks but for now, there’s the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs, and then a few miles down the mountain, there’s everyone else.
FANTASY IMPACT: Play your Bills, Chiefs and Eagles! These are the 3 highest scoring teams in the league, each averaging between 28 and 32 ppg. It’s no surprise that the top 3 fantasy QBs through Week 8 are (1) Allen, (2) Mahomes, and (3) Hurts. Beyond the QBs, each squad has a couple of weekly must-starts, followed by some players who are more hit-or-miss but who benefit from the QB and the overall strength of the offense.
The Cheetah is Tearing It Up
PART II: STATS AND FUN FACTS - Take from these tidbits what you will. If you have one to add, please leave it in the comments section below - thanks.
Bill Belichik passed George Halas for all-time career coaching wins with his 325th win on Sunday, Only Don Shula (347) is ahead of him now.
12 Players were traded on Tuesday - that’s the most players traded on deadline day in the last 30 years. The 10 trades completed on Tuesday was also a 30 year high for deadline day.
The last time the Jets beat the Patriots in regulation during the regular season was 2010. The Jets and Patriots play each other twice every season.
Derrick Henry has 4 straight 200 yard rushing games against the Texans.
Henry is tied with O.J. Simpson and Adrian Peterson for most career 200 yard rushing games (6).
Tom Brady has lost his last 3 starts - he had gone 302 consecutive starts since he last lost 3 straight, almost double the next longest streak (Joe Montana - 155).
Aaron Rodgers has lost 4 straight starts for the first time since 2016.
Matt Lafleur has already lost more games this season (5) than in any of his previous 3 full seasons as a Head Coach.
Jalen Hurts has won 10 consecutive regular season starts, an Eagles team record.
Geno Smith has thrown multiple TD passes in 6 games this season. Before this year, he had 7 such games in his 9 year NFL career.
The Ravens have released CB Daryl Worley 5 times already this season. It’s barely November…
A.J. Brown has more receiving yards than all of the Titans’ WRs combined.
Since the start of the 2020 season, the Jaguars are 6-35.
AFC South Weirdness: The Titans are 5-2 and have been outscored by 8 points, while the Jaguars are 2-6 and have outscored their opponents by 14 points.
The Colts have scored more than 20 points only once in 8 games.
The Broncos have also played 8 games, and have scored 8 fewer points than the Colts.
The Broncos are scoring fewer points per possession than the winless 2008 Detroit Lions.
The Bears have run for 200+ yards in 3 straight games - the last time that happened was in 1968.
No team in the AFC East or NFC East has a losing record.
No team in the NFC South has a winning record, and all 4 teams in that division have been outscored by their opponents.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have more combined receiving yards (1,688) through 8 games than any WR duo in the SB era. We need a nickname for this speedy pair.
Through 8 games, Hill has 961 receiving yards. The only players in NFL history who’ve been on a greater pace through 8 games were Torry Holt (2000) and Marvin Harrison (2003). Hill’s 8 game yardage total is one yard more than the next player on the list, Wes Welker (2011). Welker is currently Miami’s WR Coach.
Hill has more than 160 receiving yards in every even-numbered week this season, and less than 100 in every odd-numbered week. That’s odd, folks.
The Jets and Giants both lost in Week 8, marking the second time this year that both teams lost in the same week. Last year, it happened 10 times in the 16 weeks where they both played a game.
CMC is the first player since 2005, and the 4th since the 1970 merger, to have a rushing, receiving, and passing TD in the same game.
The Titans attempted one pass in the second half at Houston on Sunday. On the day, they had 314 rushing yards and 40 net passing yards. Weather was not a factor, and this was NOT a High School football game. It was the NFL.
The Cowboys have never lost (8-0) when Tony Pollard gets 15 or more touches.
Pollard has 5 total TDs in 2 career games played with Ezekiel Elliott inactive.
Dallas scored 28 points against the Bears in the first half on Sunday. Their previous high score for an entire game this season was 25 points.
Jalen Hurts (7-0) and Tua (5-0) are a combined 12-0 this year in games where they started and finished. In 2018, Tua and Hurts were the #1 and #2 QBs on an Alabama team that was 14-0 before it lost to Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the National Championship game. Mac Jones was the #3 QB on that Alabama team.
And….CUT!
DH
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