Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview: Week 9
Nuk: Making the Sickest Catches for a Decade
(Published November 3, 2022, updated for injuries and weather Sunday, November 6, 2022 9 a.m.)
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Welcome to NFL Week 9. Believe it or not, the NFL season is almost at the halfway point, and most fantasy leagues are past the midpoint of the regular season. It’s time to kick it into gear if you haven’t already.
Week 8 saw a surprisingly big uptick in scoring - it was the first real fantasy bonanza of the season and especially at the RB position where a whopping 9 players exceeded 20 fantasy points (Half PPR), with 5 of them going over 30. Compare that to Week 2, where even though there were no byes and almost every first string RB was fully healthy, only 2 RBs broke 20 points. Will it last or was last week an outlier? We’ll see.
Just 2 teams had byes in Week 8, but in Week 9, 6 teams are off. I’m sure the NFL has a good reason why it wasn't 4 byes for each of these 2 weeks instead, which probably has to do with TV contracts and rights and money. Whatever - it’s the only week this season with 6 teams on bye and that presents challenges for fantasy managers. We have to deal with the schedule they give us. I'll try to help you navigate a shorthanded week.
*** IN A HURRY? CHEATSHEET VERSION OF THE RIDES, FADES AND SLEEPERS! https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-cheatsheet-2022-week-9 .
WEEK 9 BYES: CLE, DAL, DEN, NYG, PIT, SF
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SUNDAY MORNING INJURY UPDATE (FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES):
Players declared OUT this Week: M. Ryan, J. Taylor, C. Hubbard, J.D. McKissic, M. Ingram, J. Chase, Mike Williams, K. Allen, R. Bateman (IR), J. Dotson, M. Thomas (IR), C. Davis, M. Goodwin, D. Parker, R. Gage, C. Brate,D. Parham (IR)
Players NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY this week: G. Edwards (MNF), D. Harris, M. Andrews (MNF), D. Waller
Players EXPECTED TO PLAY this week: J. Conner (may be limited), D. Swift (may be limited), C. Kupp, A. Lazard, J. Jones, D. Carter
Players RETURNING TO ACTION this WEEK: C. Patterson, C. Akers
GTD: R. Tannehill, J. Robinson
WEATHER REPORT: Once again, no real trouble spots. It’s unseasonably warm in the northeast. Moderate winds with occasional strong gusts are expected for MIA @ CHI.
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Team Offense Report: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: 1. BUF (30) 2. KC (29.75) 3. PHI (29.5) 4. GB (26.75) 5. ARI (26.25)
Bottom 5: 1. HOU (15.5) T2: IND (16.75) T2: TEN (16.75) 4. NYJ (17) 5. CAR (17.5)
Team Defense Report: Are there defenses we can exploit, or that we want to avoid if we can? Through 8 weeks, these are the defenses that have allowed the fewest, and most, fantasy points per game (FPPG) to each position:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. PHI 3. HOU 4. BUF 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LV 2. KC 3. DET 4. ATL 5. PIT
Top 5 vs RB: 1. SF 2. NE 3. BUF 4. DAL 5. TEN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. HOU 2. LAC 3. DET 4. CHI 5. CLE
Top 5 vs WR: 1. DEN 2. IND 3. SEA 4. NYG 5. CHI
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PIT 2. ATL 3. KC 4. TEN 5. DET
Top 5 vs TE: 1. NO 2. WAS 3. LAR 4. GB 5. BUF
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. SEA 2. ARI 3. LV 4. NE 5. MIN
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers:
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, including in comparison to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are “matchup-proof” and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Ekeler, Kupp, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers crushed it in Week 8, led by WR Ride of the Week A.J. Brown and his 37 points (Half PPR). A lot of other calls were strong, including in particular Ride calls on Tua, Dak, Cousins, Pollard, Foreman, Waddle, and Hopkins, and a Sleeper call on Dalton. Of course, I had my misses too and especially at the TE position where I got almost everything wrong. But let’s face it, after the 2 elite options of Kelce (bye in Week 8) and Andrews (who got injured early in Week 8), the position is a huge dart throw, and nearly impossible to predict. Still, this might’ve been my best week so far this season. Here’s the full report card from Week 8: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-8 .
Here we go - giddyup for WEEK 9!
Week 9: Rodgers Looks to Save Green Bay’s Season
QB
Rides and Sleepers:
Kyler Murray is my QB Ride of the Week. While the Cardinals have been a bit of a mess, Kyler’s been OK. He’s averaging 20 FPPG and that’s good for QB6 on the season. Here’s another good indicator of how much scoring has dropped this year: In 2021, Matt Stafford averaged 20 FPPG and finished as the QB11. Kyler was the QB4 last year at 22 FPPG, so I guess he’s been slightly disappointing but again, he’s been fine and a lot better than some other top 10 QBs from last year who’ve really fallen off. Meanwhile, the vibes have been so good for Seattle that I’m nervous going against them. Their defense has stepped it up after a terrible start and is now middle of the pack on the season. The Cardinals are hard to trust, but they’ve started to play better and getting Hopkins back is huge for them, even with Hollywood Brown out. This one should be high scoring and I feel a big game coming for them and for Kyler, at home.
It's been a struggle of late for 2-time reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. After throwing for 48 and 37 TDs in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers has just 13 through 8 games this season, and his yardage is way down also. He’s one of those top 10 QBs from 2021 that’s sunk like a stone this year. Losing Davante Adams is certainly a big part of the story, but beyond that, injuries have decimated what was already a sub-par group of pass catchers. The reeling Packers have also lost 4 straight games and are staring way up at the Vikings in the division. The good news is that Rodgers faces the Lions this week, and they’ve been the gift that keeps on giving. They’ve allowed the 3rd most FPPG to QBs, and Rodgers has had plenty of big games against them throughout his storied career. He’s ranked outside the top 12 this week - meaning he isn’t rated as a starting QB. Start him. The Packers have one of the highest implied totals this week and a vintage Rodgers game is coming.
I like a bunch of QBs ranked in the 7-14 range this week - they’re all Rides: Tua at Chicago (and we need a nickname for this high speed Miami offense), Joe Burrow vs. the Panthers, Geno Smith at the Cardinals, and Justin Fields vs. Miami. Little known fact - over the past 3 weeks, Fields is the QB3 in fantasy. The matchup with Miami is a good one as they’ve given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs, and every Miami game has track meet potential.
Moving down the rankings into the QB2 range, I’ll ride Trevor Lawrence at home against a reeling Raiders’ defense and I’ll ride his counterpart Derek Carr in the same game. The Raiders were blanked last week and I expect them to bounce back, in a must-win game for them.
I don’t like many lower ranked QBs this week - most have tough matchups, or they aren’t playing particularly well. I’ll go with Taylor Heinicke at home vs. the Vikings as my QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
When the NFL Schedule came out, Rams at Bucs in Week 9 looked like one of the best games of the entire season. Brady! Stafford! These teams met in the Divisional Round last year, in Tampa, and the Rams built a big lead and then fumbled it away, and another epic Tom Brady comeback came up just short. And for half a minute, that was the last game of Brady’s career - a fitting end for the GOAT. Maybe Brady regrets coming back, given how poorly things have gone. Both of these teams are struggling big time, but I’m not going to make Brady a Ride or a Fade. I think he’ll be OK in this one. I can’t say the same for Matt Stafford. The Bucs’ D can play better than it has, and the Rams’ inability to run the ball makes them very one-dimensional. Throw in that Cooper Kupp is banged up and Stafford is an easy call as my QB Fade of the Week.
Jared Goff has been very good at home this year, but I’d avoid him against the Packers this week. Green Bay has a very good secondary, the Lions just traded away one of Goff’s best weapons, and I expect the Packers to bring it this week in a must-win game for them. I also think the Lions will run the ball as much as they can. He may be fine, but he's riskier than usual this week.
It’s a tough bye week, and if you’re in a Superflex I can empathize, but I’d try hard to avoid starting P.J. Walker at the Bengals, Zach Wilson vs. the Bills, or either of Mac Jones or Sam Ehlinger in the IND@NE game.
Q: What’s Fun For an RB? A: A Date with the Texans
RB
Rides and Sleepers:
You know I’m on the Packers this week, so it should be no surprise that Aaron Jones is my RB Ride of the Week. He’s been by far the more effective back in Green Bay’s tandem and I think Rodgers will lean on him even more in the passing game going forward. The Lions have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs, but oddly, they haven’t allowed an RB to catch a TD pass yet this season. Look for Jones to end that, maybe more than once.
Miles Sanders is this week’s lucky winner of our new game, “RB facing Houston”. That’s an automatic Ride, my friends. It’s not just Derrick Henry who’s shredded them this year. They had allowed the most FPPG to RBs BEFORE Henry completely demolished them last week. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards to RBs by almost 200 yards, and have let up 10 rushing TDs to RBs. Just play Sanders. He doesn't get all the work, but heron’t need more than 15 touches to do some damage.
Ken Walker and Travis Etienne are weekly must-starts at this point. They’re still being ranked near the bottom of the top 10 but both have top 5 upside almost every week, including this one as both have good matchups.
Raheem Mostert is a nice play this week. The Bears have struggled against the run all year and have allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs, and they just traded away the NFL’s leading tackler. On top of that, Miami just traded away Chase Edmonds, so Mostert should get a sizable workload.
Moving down the rankings into the lower teens, I think you can play both Detroit RBs this week. The Packers have been vulnerable against the run and while Green Bay should have its way with the Lions, I think the Lions will move the ball on the ground and score points, and both Williams and Swift have been very productive in home games. [SUNDAY UPDATE - it sounds like Swift is going to be on some kind of a pitch count today, but unless you have a much better option I still think he’s a decent play vs. GB, and Jamaal Williams is an even better play].
Need a sleeper? Let’s go with Tyler Allgeier as the RB Sleeper of the Week. The Chargers were awful against the run in 2021 and it’s carried over. They’ve allowed the second most FPPG to RBs and you know how Atlanta likes to pound the ball for 4 quarters. Caleb Huntley is a deeper sleeper but if you’re desperate I think you can play him also, for the same reasons. Atlanta could easily have 40 rushing attempts in this one. [SUNDAY UPDATE: C. Patterson is expected to play today, so I’ll urge some caution with this entire backfield, although I do think the Falcons will run the ball a lot today - it’s just hard to know how the work will be divided up].
Kenyan Drake is ranked outside the top 30 and I get it - Gus Edwards might play, and the Saints are a top 10 run defense. I’ll still Ride Drake as a sleeper this week. He’s had success whenever he’s been the lead back for the Ravens this year. [SUNDAY UPDATE - Edwards is not expected to play, so Drake should lead the backfield, with Justice Hill sprinkled in].
Fades:
CEH is my RB Fade of the Week. I know he’s a top 20 RB on the year, but he’s as TD-dependent as any player out there. The Chiefs are using a 3-headed committee so his touches are limited. Meanwhile, the Titans have only allowed one rushing TD to an RB this season and they’ve allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs. CEH is simply too risky for me.
Jonathan Taylor hurt his ankle again last week, and that, plus the matchup at New England, is enough to make him a Fade for me this week. Like the Titans, the Pats have allowed just one rushing TD to an RB all year. Remember when Taylor was the consensus #1 overall pick in fantasy? That seems like 10 years ago. It’s been a rough go for JT and the entire Colts’ offense. [SUNDAY UPDATE - Taylor is OUT this week]
Leonard Fournette has been fine this year, mostly because he’s had a few big receiving games, and has scored 5 TDs in 8 games. However, his usage and efficiency are a potential cause for concern going forward. You’re starting Fournette - he should be targeted enough in the passing game to have a decent floor, and he’s always a good bet to get some rushing and receiving chances near the goal line. But I wouldn't expect a particularly big game from him. Rachaad White is seeing more usage in the passing game, the Bucs have been the second worst rushing offense after the Rams, and the Rams are decent vs. the run.
This is hardly a novel idea - fade any Rams’ RBs you might be thinking about. The Bucs haven’t been as stout against the run lately, but that barely matters with this anemic rushing attack. The Rams rank dead last in the NFL in both carries and rushing yards. I’m not alone in being surprised that they didn’t add an RB at the trade deadline, but that’s just part of the issue as their line play has been dreadful.
I’ll fade both Jets RBs too - I don’t know what the split will be, but I do know that Buffalo’s D is for real, against both the run and pass. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs, and the 3rd fewest FPPG to the position.
The Best TD Celebration is a Regular Occurrence
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
Tyreek Hill is the #1 ranked WR for this week, but he’s too obvious a name for this exercise (I mean, start the Cheetah if you have him, duh) so I’m going to make his running mate Jaylen Waddle my WR Ride of the Week. Miami is that rare offense that supports 2 top 10 WRs, and Waddle (WR8 on the season) is Tua’s favorite red zone target. The Bears are bottom 5 in FPPG allowed to WRs and the gutting of their front 7 before the trade deadline won’t help their pass D.
Keep riding D. Hopkins. He’s back, and Kyler is leaning on him. He’s ranked as the WR6 this week so he’s a very obvious name, but I like him for a top 5 finish on the week, and won’t be surprised if he’s the weekly WR leader in targets and catches.
Here are a handful of WRs ranked in the teens and low 20s that I’m recommending for outperformance this week: Both Metcalf and Lockett, at the Cardinals, Chris Olave vs. the Ravens, JuJu at the Titans (who are bottom 5 in FPPG allowed to WRs), Christian Kirk vs. the Raiders, and Tyler Boyd vs. the Panthers.
Let’s move down the rankings into the lower 20s and upper 30s. In this range, I’ll ride Romeo Doubs at the Lions and Darnell Mooney vs. Miami.
It’s a big bye week so let’s move way down the rankings and hit on some sleepers. I’ll make Josh Palmer my WR Sleeper of the Week. If you’re in need, other sleepers I’ll recommend are MVS at the Titans, Zay Jones vs. the Raiders, and K.J. Osborn at the Commanders.
Fades:
I’m a big Michael Pittman fan, but you know what happens when a QB making one of his very first starts travels to Foxboro and a date with Bill Belichick. It’s never good, outside of Davis Mills (in 2021) of all people. I’m scared of the entire Colts’ offense this week and since Pittman is their best WR, he has the farthest to fall and he’s my WR Fade of the Week. I hope I’m wrong, as I’m starting him in my main league (no real choice in the matter).
Brandin Cooks didn't get traded and that means he still shouldn’t be started and especially vs. Darius Slay and the Eagles. Fade city.
Adam Thielen isn’t getting his usual quota of TD catches, and that makes him a dicey start as he’s always been a great red zone WR, and TD-dependent for his value. He isn’t 100% either, so I’ll fade him this week.
A few more fades for this week: Garrett Wilson vs. the Bills, Jakobi Meyers vs. the Colts, Robert Woods vs. the Chiefs, Isaiah McKenzie at the Jets, and the slightly resurgent Allen Robinson at the Bucs.
Zach Attack
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
Zach Ertz has been a steady but unspectacular producer of low double digit fantasy points this year, and you know I’m riding multiple Cardinals so I’ll make him my TE Ride of the Week this week, with the Seahawks on tap. Even if you take out the Taysom Hill game, they’ve allowed among the most FPPG to TEs.
Keep riding Evan Engram - he’s a legit TE1 in this offense, and the Raiders are a good matchup - they’ve allowed 6 TD catches to opposing TEs and the third most FPPG to the position.
Ride Gerald Everett at the Falcons. With all of their injuries at WR, Herbert is going to need to lean on his backs and TEs in the passing game, and you can throw on the Falcons.
Noah Fant is my TE Sleeper of the Week. It’s been a bumpy ride but he’s finally establishing himself as the lead TE in Seattle, and the Cards have been atrocious defending against TEs for 2 years running. For this season, they’ve already allowed 7 TDs to the position (tied for most in the NFL), and the second most FPPG to TEs. Fant is ranked as the TE20 this week and that’s way too low. P.S.: If this game isn’t a shootout, my predictions this week are going to stink.
Need a streamer this week? Consider Isaiah Likely, even if Mark Andrews plays (I don’t think he will, since they have a bye next week), or Logan Thomas vs. the Vikings. [SUNDAY UPDATE - Andrews is doubtful - making Likely a solid play in a tough matchup].
Fades:
I got burned fading Kyle Pitts last week but I’m brave and a little stubborn - he’s my TE Fade of the Week again. One week isn’t enough to get me to trust the usage, and this game looks like one of those matchups where the Falcons will just run it down the throats of a bad run defense (the Chargers), and not attempt many passes. Pitts is finally trending up, but I don’t think he sustains it this week.
T.J. Hockenson is a very nice add for the Vikings, but I can’t imagine he sees that much run in the passing game after just arriving at team facilities on Wednesday. I’d wait a week before using him.
Tyler Conklin broke out with 2 TDs last week, but I wouldn’t chase that performance this week against the Bills. As is the case at most positions, they’re a top 5 defense vs. TEs. I don’t see the Jets cracking 15 points this week and wouldn’t start a single Jets player vs. Buffalo if I could avoid it.
I’ll continue to fade Cole Kmet, who’s been a major disappointment this season. Yes, this could be a high scoring game, but the targets just aren’t there for Kmet, and the addition of Chase Claypool isn’t a plus for him. Another TE who had some preseason buzz but just hasn’t gotten good usage or target volume all year is Hunter Henry, and I’ll continue to steer clear of him.
PK and D/ST: See the Week 8 Waiver Wire column for streamer suggestions at these 2 positions: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-2022-week-9 .
WEEK 8 RECAP: here is the link to the Week 8 takeaways and recap column: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-take-2-2022-week-8 .
GOOD LUCK to all in Week 9!
DH
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