Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 10
The Cook is Back in the Kitchen
(Posted November 11, 2021, updated for injuries November 13, 2021)
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Welcome to the Pigskin Papers Week 10 Fantasy Preview. The last 10 days have been among the craziest I can remember in the NFL, in terms of all the off-the-field stuff. In the middle of that, Week 9 had some huge upsets, and a lot of disappointment and low scores in fantasy football. Hopefully, that’s all behind us and we can get back to just talking about football, and some old fashioned shootouts filled with fantasy bounty. Who’s with me? Hopefully, all of you. The NFL and fantasy football are supposed to be fun.
Every NFL team has played either 8 or 9 games, meaning we are at the exact midpoint of the new 17 game NFL season. I know that the fantasy season is more than halfway over for most of you (not me, my league plays all 17 weeks, and we do our playoffs during the NFL playoffs*), but there’s still plenty of time for most fantasy managers to go (or stay) on a run down the stretch and make the postseason. I’m here to help.
***If you’re interested in learning more about this, see: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/three-of-the-dumbest-things-about-fantasy-football-and-how-to-fix-them-part-iii-1
INJURY UPDATE, SATURDAY MORNING
There are a lot of players on injury watch, so here is the latest:
QB: Russell Wilson is slated to return and start, Aaron Rodgers needs to clear the COVID protocol to start (which appears likely), and Sam Darnold is OUT, with PJ Walker starting and Cam Newton unlikely to be active. Kyler Murray is a GTD. Mike White is back starting for the Jets.
RB:
OUT: Nick Chubb and D Felton (D Johnson should see almost all of the work and is a solid start), Alvin Kamara (Mark Ingram is a decent start in his stead), Chase Edmonds, Jamaal Williams and Chris Carson.
Expected to Play: James Robinson, Elijah Mitchell
QUESTIONABLE: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Zach Moss
WR and TE:
OUT: Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Chase Claypool, Gronk, AB
IN: Dawson Knox, AJ Green, TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, Michael Gallup
Expected to Play: Keenan Allen, Corey Davis
GTD: Nuk Hopkins, Julio Jones, Rondale Moore, Chris Godwin
Before we turn to the Rides and Fades, here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 10 (note - last week, Buffalo had the highest implied total at 31.7 - they scored a grand total of 6 points, which made a lot of people throw up in their mouths - the implied totals are usually a little more reliable than that):
Top 5:
DAL (32) vs. ATL
BUF (31) @NYJ
TB (31) @WFT
IND (29) vs. JAC
LAR (27) @SF
Bottom 5:
DET (17) @PIT
NYJ (17) vs. BUF
CAR (17) @ARI
JAC (19) @IND
MIA (20) vs. BAL
I’ve been providing a variety of team stats for most of the year, but here’s what I’m learning - there really aren’t any NFL defenses that are dominant, outside of Buffalo. The Bills have allowed 5 TD passes this year, while every other team has allowed at least 10, and they only allow 263 total yards and 14.8 points per game which in today’s NFL is very low. Yes, there are good and bad matchups in the running and passing games, and as we go through the Rides and Fades I’ll discuss them some, but this is a strange year in that there are very few matchups that are all that scary - and there are plenty that are good or great.
BYES Week 10: Bears, Bengals, Giants, Texans
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, start all of your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” because they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Tom Brady against the WFT pass defense, or Najee Harris against the Lions run defense. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides and Fades had another strong week last week, with some really good calls, and of course, some bad misses. I try to discuss a lot of players, so that’s going to happen every week. Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see all the hits and misses: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-9-fantasy-preview
Here we go - the Week 10 Rides and Fades:
QB:
Rides:
Is that a Chip on your Shoulder or are you Just Happy to See Me?
Aaron Rodgers should be back under center and I’ve been saying this for the last week to anyone who will listen - the A-Rod screw you tour (I’m being polite) might be epic. Assuming the chip on his shoulder isn’t so big that he can’t throw, I’m predicting a huge week, with more to follow. Seattle’s defense has gotten better, but I don’t think it will matter. Rodgers is ranked outside the top 5 this week and I’m feeling a top 3 finish for him. He is my QB Ride of the Week. Hop aboard.
I’m riding Justin Herbert this week against the Vikings. I think the resurgence of the Chargers offense got underway last week, with more big games in store. Bolt Up!
Two QBs ranked outside the top 10 who I like as Rides this week are Carson Wentz vs. the Jaguars, and Derek Carr vs. the Chiefs. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Wentz is putting up consistent numbers (averaging just under 20 fantasy points per game); and Carr, coming off a sloppy game, gets a KC defense that’s allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs, even after last week’s gift of defending against Jordan Love.
Two QBs I like who are outside the top 15 this week are a resurgent Matt Ryan at the Cowboys, who’ve allowed the 8th most fantasy points to QBs, and Big Ben against the winless, toothless and hapless Lions. The formula for beating the Lions has been running the ball, and then running it some more, but I think the Steelers will try to get their passing game right in this one. Big Ben is my QB Sleeper of the Week.
If you want or need to roll the dice on a streamer, or take a swing in DFS, Trevor Lawrence is a deep sleeper to consider this week, against a Colts defense that’s allowed the second most fantasy points to QBs, and just got torched by a pair of Jets journeymen backups.
Fades:
I don’t want any part of Baker Mayfield at New England, where the Patriots have emerged as a decidedly bad matchup for QBs - they’ve given up the second fewest fantasy points to the position.
If he can get back on the field this week, Kyler Murray will be at less than 100% and may not run much, which hurts his fantasy value. The Panthers have been stingy all year, allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points to QBs, and they’re top 5 in several pass defense stats. Kyler is ranked inside the top 10 this week and at that lofty ranking he is my QB Fade of the Week.
Over the last 2 weeks, guess which QB has scored the most fantasy points, total? Wrong. It’s Jimmy G. Really, I’m not lying. It’s true. That’s partly due to byes, injuries and illnesses, but still, he’s been a good fantasy QB of late. I think that little streak ends this week against a Rams defense that’s allowed the 6th fewest points to QBs, and has given up only 10 TD passes on the year which is tied for second best. Plus the Rams should be coming in pretty angry after the Titans smoked them at home last week. He’s a Fade.
A few other QBs I’m fading this week: Ryan Tannehill against the Saints, and Kirk Cousins against the Chargers and their very stingy pass defense, which has only allowed 10 passing TDs.
RB
James Conner, League Winner
James Conner is emerging as one of this year’s top “league winners”. Conner went late in drafts and right now he is money in the bank, every week. He’s rung up 6 TDs in his last 3 games and with Chase Edmonds out with an injury, he’s going to be even busier. The matchup with the Panthers this week isn’t great, but the Cardinals should have plenty of trips into the red zone this week and Conner has been converting goal line carries at an insane rate. He’s the man. Conner is the RB Ride of the Week.
Josh Jacobs is a Ride this week against the Chiefs, in what could turn into a shootout. Jacobs, like Conner, has a nose for the end zone and already has 5 rushing TDs on the season. I like him to get at least one more this week.
I like Cordarelle Patterson at Dallas this week, and especially if he is eligible at RB - he figures to be busy with both carries and targets and just keeps getting it done. Dallas has been a tough matchup for RBs but Patterson is far from a traditional RB. Ride him.
Three RBs ranked down in the 20s who I am riding this week are Devonta Freeman, D’Ernest Johnson and Devin Singletary. Freeman is likely to lead the Ravens backfield again tonight, and the Dolphins have been one of the better RB matchups, having allowed 10 total TDs to the position already. Johnson isn’t going to have any competition for touches and the Browns best bet to move the ball on New England will be on the ground, where they’ve been wrecking opponents - and we already saw that Johnson is plenty capable. Singletary could be the lead back this week if Zach Moss can’t clear the concussion protocol, but even if Moss plays, the Jets have been the gift that keeps on giving to RBs. A few weeks ago, the Patriots had 4 rushing TDs against them (split between 2 RBs), and last week the Colts had 3 (also split between 2 RBs). The Jets have allowed 14 rushing TDs to RBs and the most fantasy points to the position. I can give you these stats all day but I think you get the point - the Jets stink against the run. Like not even regular stink, but a special kind of stink. Singletary is the RB Sleeper of the Week. And if Moss plays, they’re both startable.
And 2 deeper sleepers for you: I think J.D. McKissic could have a pretty big role against the Bucs, in a game where the WFT figures to be trailing the whole way. I especially like him in full PPR. The Patriots backfield is up in the air this week, with Harris and Stevenson both in the concussion protocol. If one of them can’t go, Brandon Bolden figures to see a decent amount of work and if they both can’t, then Bolden could see a lead role.
The Fades:
I’ve been fading a banged-up Antonio Gibson week after week and it’s been working out. The Bucs haven’t been quite as staunch of late, but continue to be a difficult matchup for RBs, allowing the 6th fewest points to the position and just 2 rushing TDs on the year. Gibson might not be anywhere close to 100% again this season - keep fading him.
I’d stay away from Adrian Peterson this week. The Saints are the only team in the NFL allowing fewer than 3 YPC, and they’ve given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to RBs.
James Robinson should be back this week, but I don’t know that he will get his normal workload, and I don’t really like the matchup with the Colts, or this offense to do much in this one. He is my RB Fade of the Week.
A few other RBs I’m fading this week: Jordan Howard at Denver, Chris Carson at the Packers if he plays (I’d give it a week), Mike Davis at the Cowboys, and Myles Gaskin at home against the Ravens.
WR
Rides:
Hollywood, Part II
It’s a rare daily double as Hollywood Brown is our WR Ride of the Week for the second straight week. He’s ranked outside the top 10 once again, even though he is a top 10 WR who delivers every week. The Dolphins have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to WRs, including 12 TDs. Don’t look now but Brown is on pace for 92 catches for 1,350 yards and 12 TDs. Ride the wave.
Another wave to keep riding is Michael Pittman, who has been listed in this space for several weeks running. Pittman is ranked outside the top 10 this week and I like him to do better than that. He’s caught 5 TD passes in his last 5 games and I like him to keep it going against a Jaguars defense that’s in the bottom third of the league against WRs.
I like both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb to bounce back this week against the Falcons, in a get right game for Dallas. Of the two, I like Cooper a little more, but they’re both Rides.
Keenan Allen has 24 targets in his last 2 games and is starting to get the kind of high level volume we expected. Maybe Mike Williams re-emerges as the top option on this team, but at a ranking of WR20 this week, I like Allen as a green-light play against the Vikings, who’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to WRs.
2 other WRs ranked down in the 20s who I am riding this week are Robert Woods (at 49ers), who continues to pick it up a little more each week, and Jaylen Waddle (who has double digit targets in 3 of his last 4 games) against the Ravens.
2 more target hogs I like this week, who are ranked all the way down in the 30s, are Hunter Renfrow and Cole Beasley. Both have very favorable matchups this week, and both figure to see plenty of opportunities. Renfrow is my WR Sleeper of the Week against the Chiefs.
And a deeper set of sleepers are Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris on the Saints. The Titans have allowed the most catches, yards, and fantasy points to WRs this season, and one or both of these receivers is going to need to make some plays for the Saints to stay in this game.
Fades:
The Patriots have been rough on WRs of late, and the Browns have been very inconsistent throwing the ball. I’m fading Jarvis Landry.
D.J Moore was a weekly Ride earlier in the season and now, sadly, he’s a weekly fade. I guess P.J. Walker can’t be much worse than Sam Darnold, and maybe he gives this team a spark it desperately needs, but the QB situation is killing Moore’s season. Plus the matchup at Arizona isn’t a good one. Moore is my WR Fade of the Week, for the second straight week. Let’s see if it’s the right call again.
Julio Jones is also a weekly sit at this point. Sad but true.
I don’t especially like Courtland Sutton against Philadelphia this week. I think he’ll see a lot of Darius Slay, and it’s hard to have any confidence in him after his last 3 games have produced 8-117-0, total.
Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder are all Fades for me this week. Yes, somebody on the Jets will have some catches against the Bills, but that might be the running backs. The Bills have only allowed 2 WR scores all year, which is ridiculous, but it’s true. Stay away.
Adam Thielen has been a TD machine, so this one is risky. Last week, he had less than 10 yards receiving but still managed to score. The Chargers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to WRs and I don’t see Thielen doing a whole lot in this one.
DeVonta Smith is coming off one of his best games of the year, but that came after a pretty terrible 3 game stretch for him and I think he and the rest of the Eagles offense is going to struggle against a Denver defense that woke up and completely shut down Dallas last week.
TE
Rides:
Miami’s Bright Spot Keeps Producing
I’m trying to figure out why Mike Gesicki is ranked outside the top 5 this week. He is the TE3 on the season, and the Ravens have struggled against the position all season, having allowed the second most points to the position. I have a lot more confidence in this play if Tua starts, but either way, Gesicki is my TE Ride of the Week.
We have 2 situations this week with players who are potentially returning, and have outstanding matchups. Noah Fant missed last week with COVID but assuming he is back he gets to face the Eagles, who somehow allowed the Chargers to produce 3 of the top 9 tight end performances last week. Three! How is that even possible? The Eagles linebackers have struggled in coverage and as a team they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. Fant is my TE Ride of the Week. The second TE who might return is Logan Thomas, who hasn’t played since week 3. If Thomas is a go, he has a great matchup with the Bucs, in a game where the WFT should be chasing points.
Pat Friermuth had his coming out party on Monday night and looks like the real deal. Those who grabbed him on waivers might have a fairly reliable TE down the stretch. Given Ben’s limitations as a passer, a big and sure-handed short area and red zone target like Friermuth could play a prominent role in this offense. Friermuth has converted targets at an extremely high rate all year, and has scored in consecutive games. I like him to keep it going this week against the Lions. Ride it.
Tyler Conklin is my TE Sleeper of the Week. He’s been slowly assuming a larger role in the Vikings offense. The game with the Chargers has shootout potential, and while the Chargers are tough overall against the pass, they’ve been generous to tight ends, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position.
Fades:
Zach Ertz will have his games, but I don’t know if Kyler will be back for this one, and I don’t like the matchup with the Panthers. He’s a Fade for me.
Jared Cook is my TE Fade of the Week. The Vikings haven’t allowed a tight end to score this season, and I think the Chargers will do their damage in this one with their backs and wideouts. Plus, other tight ends on the Chargers are getting their share of targets.
I’m not high on Dalton Schultz this week. The matchup isn’t great, Michael Gallup’s return will mean even more competition for targets, and I think the Cowboys will find other ways to exploit the Falcons defense.
Hunter Henry has cooled off, and like many tight ends, he’s become very TD-dependent. He’s a Fade for me this week.
I’m not high on Tyler Higbee this week. The 49ers aren’t a good matchup, and Higbee is another tight end who doesn’t give you much if he doesn’t score.
Have fun setting your lineups, and good luck to all in Week 10. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly waiver wire column, and the weekly fantasy recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
