Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 9
Conner to the House..Again
(Posted November 9, 2021)
Jaguars 9, Bills 6. Say what?? No, there was no hurricane in Jacksonville, and yes, Josh Allen (the QB) played the whole game.
Broncos 30, Cowboys 16, in Dallas (30-zip when both teams were trying). Yup, Dak was back, and played the whole game.
The Titans, on the road and playing their first game without Derrick Henry, smoked the 7-1 Rams 28-16, and it wasn’t as close as that.
The Cardinals, without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, went on the road and beat up on the 49ers, 31-17.
One of the craziest off-the-field weeks in recent memory bled right into a nutty week of multiple upsets, close finishes, and big surprises. It was a week that proved that old adage about “any given Sunday” - an adage that gets thrown around a lot, but nobody really believes. OK, so maybe the adage should be that on any given Sunday when the Lions are on a bye, any NFL team can beat any other NFL team. Or maybe there just isn’t a great team in the NFL this year. We will see - there is lots of football left to be played, and November is when the really good teams usually start to separate themselves.
As for fantasy football - well, it was just a bad week, folks. It kinda sucked and was one of the lowest scoring weeks of the year. This was due to several factors: there were a couple of very low scoring games, 4 teams including the high-flying Bucs were on a bye, Jordan Love played QB for an entire 4 quarters, and a bunch of TDs were scored by players like Elijah Moore and Malik Turner, who weren’t in anybody’s lineups. Oh well, these weeks sometimes happen. If you made it through with a decent score, be content. Hopefully better days are ahead, starting with this week.
On to the recap!
Waiver Wire, Week 10: Here is a link to our Week 10 Waiver Wire column, which also posted today: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/the-pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-10
What We Learned - Week 9
Here are my key week 9 takeaways, in no particular order:
The New Comeback Kid
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are having a crazy season. 3 OT games in 8 contests??? That’s bananas. The book on Lamar used to be that he couldn’t throw well enough to engineer a comeback. Coming into the season he’d never brought his team back when trailing by double digits. He’s already done it 3 times in 2021, so you can throw that out the window. The question I have is why does it take him and the Ravens offense so long to get rolling? Lamar hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the 1st quarter all year, and of his 13 TD passes and 2 TD runs, only 4 have come in the first half. Lamar’s fantasy managers keep looking at his halftime point totals and groaning, but by the end of the 4th quarter they’re usually smiling. This week, for the 3rd time this year, Harbaugh went for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter from inside his own 30 as the Ravens mounted a comeback. Hollywood Brown continues to shine and to benefit from Lamar’s big improvements as a passer. Lamar to Hollywood has quietly become one of the top stacks on the board.
Big win for the Cardinals, without their top 2 offensive stars. This team is proving that it belongs. And James Connor - wow. He is going to be one of those players that’s on a lot of 2021 fantasy league winners, and with Chase Edmonds possibly headed to IR, he is only going to see more touches.
The Browns can run it on you all day long - that was an impressive win for them, the OBJ distraction is gone, and Nick Chubb keeps showing why he is worth that late first round pick. Meanwhile, remember all that Bengals hype from 2 weeks ago after they rolled the Ravens? Looks like they aren’t quite ready yet.
Everyone in fantasy wants to see more Javonte Williams - but Melvin Gordon is still good and is earning his touches also. This week the Broncos dominated the game and so they were both good plays, but in other weeks the two RBs have cannibalized each other. The timeshare is going to continue.
Very strange week for Aaron Rodgers. I’m going to stay away from the politics and public health aspects of the story and stick to the football impact, where I will say two things: (1) now the whole world has seen that his backup Jordan Love is nowhere near ready to be a starter in the NFL - he can do with that information what he will, and (2) he’s had a chip on his shoulder ever since he sat in the green room at the draft for a few hours in 2005. I think that chip just tripled in size. I’m expecting a pretty epic “screw you” tour from him as soon as he is back under center. Play your Packers.
Wentz-Taylor-Pittman has quietly become one of the best QB-RB-WR fantasy trios in the land. Wentz has at least 20 fantasy points in 6 straight starts, and Taylor and Pittman have been lighting it up week in and week out. Keep an eye on the Colts, who have a cake schedule over the second half.
The Panthers shouldn’t have started Sam Darnold, coming off a concussion and with an injured shoulder, at New England. It was a perfect excuse to sit him for a week, or more. So is this coming week. And right now, with Darnold unable to move the offense, D.J. Moore is very hard to trust - he’s a flex at best. Darnold has been under 175 yards passing in 3 straight.
Cordarelle Patterson had a couple of fairly quiet weeks but he’s a unique weapon, and is going to continue to produce and especially with Ridley out indefinitely.
Jaylen Waddle has 42 targets in his last 4 games - that’s the kind of usage we want to see, but because of the many flaws in this team he hasn’t really been able to make big plays downfield. Just once this year, I’d like to see a healthy Tua throwing to Waddle, Fuller, Parker and Gesicki. And I bet Miami’s front office would like to see it also - as would fantasy players. We may not see either Miami or the Giants with all fantasy weapons deployed at any point this season.
Don’t look now but here comes New England. The fantasy values on this team continue to be the RBs and TEs.
The Steelers offense is hard to watch - the line is bad and Ben can’t move, which is an awful combination. So much fantasy potential, but I just don’t think we’re ever going to see weekly 30+ point outputs like we’ve seen from them many times over the last few years.
The Bears offense is also hard to watch, but Justin Fields is starting to figure it out. He’s entering streamer territory, mostly due to his running. And was that Allen Robinson making a few plays last night? I forgot he was still in the league. Cole Kmet is also intriguing for the second half of the season. Stay tuned.
Speaking of hard to watch - the Chiefs are making me cover my eyes. They’ve scored 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Last season, they scored 20 points or fewer only once, in the 18 games they played prior to the Super Bowl. Mahomes, Kelce and even Hill aren’t delivering close to the value you paid for, and for the rest of their offensive pieces, even less so.
GOATs of the Week: JONATHAN TAYLOR AND NICK CHUBB, congrats, and grab yourselves a cold one! These are two of the best backs in the league, and they both showed off their skills this weekend, ending with similar stat lines. Both scored 2 TDs, including one very long one that showcased their breakaway skills. Taylor has at least 110 total yards in each of his last 6 games, with 9 TDs in that span. He is going to be in the conversation for the first overall fantasy pick next year. Unfortunately, Chubb tested positive for COVID today and is probably out for Week 10.
The new RB1?
And not Far Behind
Goats of the week: The Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills offenses. Both of these units were basically held without a TD for an entire game. These are supposed to be 2 of the top offenses in the league, with 2 of the best QBs. And neither one was playing an elite defense by any stretch. We’ll give them both a pass. Honorable mention to Matt Stafford - last week I said that Carson Wentz threw the single worst pass of the year. Stafford gave him a run for his money - but at least it was a right-handed throw. Stafford’s MVP candidacy took a hit Sunday, along with Josh Allen’s. Tom Brady didn’t play last week and nobody’s MVP stock improved more.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
Josh, meet Josh
The Jaguars were 14.5 point underdogs vs. the Bills - that’s the 6th biggest point spread upset since 1990.
Adrian Peterson scored his 125th TD on Sunday night. The other 11 players who have scored 125 TDs are all in the NFL Hall of Fame.
In each of the last 2 weeks, 8 underdogs won outright.
Lamar Jackson had his 10th career 100 yard rushing game on Sunday. That ties Mike Vick for the most 100 yard rushing games in a career by a QB. Lamar is 24.
The Ravens had 36 first downs in their OT win over the Vikings. The NFL record for a game is 40.
Patrick Mahomes' streak of throwing an INT in 7 straight games came to an end Sunday. That was the longest such streak for him in the NFL, College or High School.
Justin Jefferson needed 24 games to get to 2,000 career passing yards. The only player to get to 2,000 yards faster was OBJ (21 games).
Nerd alert! Colts 45, Jets 30 was a Scorigami - a first ever NFL final score. It was the 3rd Scorigami of the year.
The 49ers are 1-11 in their last 12 home games.
All 4 AFC North teams are over .500, as are all 4 AFC West Teams. The last, and only, time that there were 2 divisions with every team over .500 this late in the season was in 2008.
11 AFC teams are over .500, while only 6 NFC teams are. If the season ended today, the Falcons (4-4) would be the 7th and final NFC playoff team.
The Dolphins and Texans combined to commit 9 turnovers, while scoring only 2 total TDs (both by Miami). It really was the Toilet Bowl, as advertised. These teams should have done a Watson trade just to make this game interesting.
Jonathan Taylor became the first player this season to have 2 TD runs in a game of 20+ yards.
Stop me if you’re sick of hearing this one. Josh Allen intercepted Josh Allen, sacked Josh Allen, and recovered a fumble by Josh Allen (all firsts). The two Josh Allens were both the 7th overall pick in the draft, in consecutive years.
In 4 career starts against New England, Sam Darnold is 0-4, and has thrown 1 TD against 9 interceptions, while losing 3 fumbles. GHOSTS.
The Cowboys were a perfect 7-0 ATS coming into the weekend. The best ATS records through week 9: Packers 8-1, Cowboys 7-1, the worst: WFT 1-7, Chiefs 2-7.
Tom Brady has thrown more TD passes in his 40s (148) than he threw in his 20s (147).
The Vikings and Ravens both have played in 3 Overtime games, out of 8 games played.
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 10 Fantasy Preview!
DH
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