Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 13
The Pats - Running Ahead of the AFC East, Again
(Posted December 7, 2021)
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Welcome readers, to the Pigskin Papers Week 13 fantasy recap. Another crazy week in the NFL culminated last night with a classic weather game in the northeast. If you didn’t like this one, you don’t like football. You know the story - the Patriots attempted just 3 passes, and won the game by running the ball down Buffalo’s throat, and playing stout defense. Did the much-celebrated changing of the guard in the AFC East last for just one season? Really? Well, we’ll see, and these teams play each other again in Foxboro the day after Christmas, but it sure looks that way this morning.
It was also an exciting week in the NFL, with 5 of the 14 games decided on the final possession. Meanwhile, it’s the first 17 game regular season in NFL history, and the injuries and illnesses keep piling up - I guess fantasy managers have learned to deal with it but I can’t recall a season where I’ve needed the waiver wire for warm bodies more than this one. Speaking of which…
Waiver Wire, Week 14: Here’s the link to our Week 14 Waiver Wire column, which posted after the game last night: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/the-pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-14
What We Learned - Week 13
Minshew Mania - Fun for a Week
Here are my key week 13 fantasy takeaways (and some NFL takeaways), in no particular order:
The Chiefs and Ravens were both supposed to be high-flying, unstoppable offenses this year, and it’s just not happening. Both teams can put up a big number on occasion, but there’s no consistency - and turnovers have been a big part of the problem. The Ravens’ point totals in their last 4 games: 10-16-16-19. The Chiefs’ point totals in their last 6 games: 3-20-13-41-19-22. It’s been frustrating not only for fantasy managers who have Mahomes or Jackson, but for the entire offenses of both teams. You’re still starting your main pieces each week, but not with the degree of confidence that was expected.
Contrast that to the Bucs - who have mostly lived up to expectations and who often look unstoppable on offense. Brady is still masterful and gets the ball out quickly, and he’s got great weapons even without AB. Lenny Fournette continues to shine in the featured role.
Is Tua the answer in Miami? Well, he’s making his case. The Dolphins have won 5 in a row and he’s been highly efficient over that stretch. Yes, the resurgent defense is a big part of the story - they’ve allowed 10 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games. But since he came off the bench in the second half against the Ravens in week 10 (recovering from a fractured finger), he’s 91 for 118 (78%), with 5 TDs and 1 INT (plus a rushing TD). And he’s put up a passer rating of 100 or higher in 4 straight games - the first Dolphin to do that since Dan Marino had 6 in a row in his 1984 MVP season. The Dolphins have become a pretty decent offense across the board for fantasy purposes.
Speaking of second year QBs, Burrow vs. Herbert never really materialized into the back-and-forth battle we hoped for, as the Chargers dominated early, weathered a comeback, and pulled away late. Both of these teams are good, with plenty of excellent fantasy producers, but are maddeningly inconsistent.
A team with a similar story to Miami is the WFT. Taylor Heinicke has also been highly efficient - he’s completed more than 70% of his passes in 4 straight games, all wins, and has helped lead the WFT to an impressive in-season turnaround, without Chase Young.
Kyler Murray put up almost 30 fantasy points while completing only 11 passes. His ability to finish drives with TDs using either his arm or his legs is the best in the league right now and reminds me of Lamar in 2019. The Cards are now 7-0 on the road, with each road win by double digits. This is a very dangerous team that needs to be taken seriously.
How good is Justin Jefferson? There are a lot of outstanding rookie, second, and third year WRs in the NFL right now - Jefferson may end up being the best of them, or at least, filling up the stat sheet better than any of them.
Cooper Kupp already has 100 catches on the year. This train hasn’t slowed down at all. He needs 50 catches over his last 5 games to break Michael Thomas’s record of 149 (Thomas did that in a 16 game season).
For most of the year, Jalen Hurts has been the “not so great real life QB who is an awesome fantasy QB”, but I think he may have turned the mantle over to Taysom Hill, whose hideous 4 INT performance somehow resulted in 20+ fantasy points, even without him getting a rushing TD. As many have said, don’t watch the game, just check the box score after.
Speaking of Hurts, is there a QB controversy brewing in Philadelphia? I don’t believe so, and yes it was against the Jets so we all need to calm down, but don’t be surprised if Gardner Minshew gets another opportunity to win a starting job.
Did John Harbaugh make the right decision, going for 2 points and the win? The Ravens own the highest 4th down conversion rate in the league at just under 70% and obviously Harbaugh liked his chances to get 2 yards and win the game right there as opposed to sending the game to overtime, on the road. The play call was excellent and they just missed on the execution. I liked the call, and continue to applaud NFL Head Coaches for finally figuring out (better late than never) that it pays to be aggressive.
Have a Cold One on Us, George
GOAT of the Week: George Kittle. Kittle had a monster game Sunday, reminding us of what he’s capable of. The final numbers: 9-181-2, which would be tremendous for a wide receiver and is ludicrous for a tight end. Kittle can be maddening, between the injuries and the games where he barely gets targeted, but he can also do this.
Goat of the week: The Texans offense. They put up 0 points and less than 200 yards of offense, at home. They only had 9 first downs, and had the ball for about 18 minutes. Tyrod Taylor got benched, but Davis Mills didn’t do any better. Credit the Colts defense, but this was a complete no-show.
Wait, What??? Facts That Interest Me, and Maybe Only Me:
A Connection Like No Other
Jared Goff got his first NFL win without Sean McVay as his Head Coach.
With their 2 TD pass connections on Sunday, Tom Brady and Gronk have connected for 90 TDs, passing Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates for 2nd all time. They trail only Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison (112).
Jonathan Taylor has scored a TD in 10 straight games, and is the first player to accomplish that feat before turning age 23. He is 2 games short of the in-season record of 12 straight games with a TD, held by LaDanian Tomlinson.
The Dolphins are the second team in NFL history to follow up a 7 game losing streak with a 5 game winning streak (‘94 Giants).
The Vikings have missed their last four 2-Point Conversion tries.
The Eagles have never lost a game to the Jets (12-0).
The Rams are 5-0 when Matt Stafford doesn’t throw an INT.
For his career, Gardner Minshew has thrown 39 TDs against just 11 INTs.
Big Ben had his 51st game-winning drive on Sunday, tying him for 3rd all time with Tom Brady. Only Peyton Manning (54) and Drew Brees (53) have more.
10 of Big Ben’s game-winning drives have come vs. the Ravens.
The Patriots only threw the ball once in the first half on Monday night, which was the fewest by a team since 1978, and only 3 times all game, which was the fewest by a team since 1974, and at one point they ran 32 straight running plays.
The first 6 possessions in Eagles-Jets resulted in 3 TDs by each team - the first time that has happened in any game since 1978.
With 9 more catches on Sunday, Jaylen Waddle is up to 86 on the season, through 13 games. The rookie record is 101 (Anquan Boldin).
Adrian Peterson scored his 126th career TD on Sunday, tying him with Jim Brown for 10th all time.
On Sunday night, the Broncos had a 20 play, 88 yard drive that consumed 11 minutes and resulted in zero points (turnover on downs).
In their 2 game series this year, the Colts outscored the Texans by 59 points.
So far this season, more snow has fallen in Hawaii than in Denver (OK, not a football stat, but wow).
As I said, this stuff might interest only me.
Thanks for reading the Pigskin Papers. Coming Thursday - the Pigskin Papers Week 14 Fantasy Preview!
DH
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