Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 14
Bears, Meet One of Your Owners
(Posted December 9, 2021, updated for injury news Saturday, December 11, 2021, @noon)
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Welcome to Week 14, the last week of play before conventional fantasy leagues hold their playoffs, and the last week of NFL byes. Unfortunately, between the 4 teams on bye (Indianapolis, Miami, New England, Philadelphia), more COVID cases and more injuries, this is yet another week that’s going to challenge fantasy managers and force some tough decisions. I’m here to try to help, although nobody needs more help than I do. I’m pretty certain that I’m about to fire up the most pathetic lineup I’ve ever fielded in 25+ years of playing fantasy football, mostly because of the week 14 bye but also because of COVID and injuries. I see some of you nodding your heads in sad agreement. OK, before I get too depressed, let’s jump in.
Want a CHEATSHEET version of our Rides and Fades? Click this link: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-14-fantasy-cheatsheet
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT
Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 14:
Top :
KC (29) vs. LV
TB (28.5) vs. BUF
GB (28) vs. CHI
ARI (27) vs. LAR
LAC (26.5) vs. NYG
Bottom 5:
CHI (15) @GB
NYG (16.5) @ LAC
HOU (17) vs. SEA
DET (17) @ DEN
JAX (17.5) @TEN
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT:
A few matchups jump out. The Bills have consistently been the toughest defense for fantasy players to go against all year, and this past Monday night was such a strange game, I’m not sure what to take away from it. Tampa’s offense will give them all that they can handle and I wouldn’t shy away from the matchup for any of the key Bucs pieces. Green Bay is a stingy defense and Chicago’s half-dead offense is going to struggle, but expect them to at least try to establish the run until the game gets away from them. The Chiefs have turned it around and have been a really tough defense of late. At home, against their biggest rival who they destroyed a few weeks ago, I’ve got some concerns about the Vegas offense but as you’ll see below, not the entire offense. Anyway - you’re always going to play your studs, but there are definitely some matchups in the running and passing game to avoid (or exploit) if you can, and we’ll talk about that as we go through the Rides and Fades.
*****Injury Update, Saturday @noon*****:
Once again, it’s more names than we’d like to see. Here is what we know as of noon on Saturday:
QB: A. Dalton is doubtful, but J. Fields was set to return, and start, anyway. I’d stay away. D. Mills takes over for T. Taylor. I’d stay even farther away. M. Glennon is questionable, but expected to start for the NYG. I’d stay in a different time zone.
RB:
OUT: Eli Mitchell (J. Wilson gets the start and is a decent RB2 or flex option, and J. Hasty will get some touches too); D. AND Jamaal Williams (this isn’t an ideal matchup at Denver, but the backfield touches will be some kind of split between Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson), M. Carter AND T. Coleman (Ty Johnson should see the bulk of the work, but it’s a tough matchup vs. the Saints), M. Ingram and T. Montgomery (not confirmed yet, but highly unlikely either will be able to suit up after testing positive for Covid mid-week; A. Kamara is back, however), A. Peterson and T. Homer (R. Penny and A. Collins will be in some kind of share).
QUESTIONABLE: T. Pollard, J.D. McKissic
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: J. Mixon, M. Gordon
IN: A. Kamara, K. Hunt
PASS CATCHERS:
OUT: K. Allen, D. Waller, D. Njoku and H. Bryant, K. Toney, R. Cobb
DOUBTFUL: T.J. Hockenson
QUESTIONABLE: E. Moore, D. Samuel, B. Cooks
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY: Mike Williams, T. Higgins, Julio Jones, K. Golladay, S. Shepard
IN: A. Robinson
BYES Week 13: COLTS, DOLPHINS, PATRIOTS, EAGLES
Rides and Fades
The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Austin Ekeler, Kyler Murray or Cooper Kupp. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.
The Rides and Fades kicked ass last week! The four Rides of the Week (Cousins, Mattison, Diontae Johnson and Friermuth - who, interestingly, are all playing in tonight’s game) combined for 73 points in half PPR. Not bad! And we had a lot of other hits too, and of course, our share of misses. But overall it was a very good week. Click here to look at last week’s preview and you can see where I hit and missed: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-13
Here we go - the Week 14 Rides and Fades:
QB
Rides:
Run Taysom, Run
Aaron Rodgers is ranked outside the top 5 this week. Why on earth is he ranked lower than, among others, Lamar Jackson, who has been pretty awful over the last month? The Packers are playing the Bears, a team that Rodgers has an ownership interest in, at home, coming off a bye…and the Bears stink. They’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs and have the second fewest INTs in the league. Rodgers is a top 3 play this week and he is my QB Ride of the Week. I know, he’s an obvious name and this isn’t the analysis you’re paying for.
So, I present Taysom Hill, who threw 4 INTs on Thursday night and looked atrocious, and had his fantasy day bailed out by a spectacular catch-and-run by Deonte Harris, who now is serving a suspension and is out this week. He’s got an injured finger on his throwing hand. So with all of that, why on earth am I recommending him? Because he’s playing the Jets, and he can run, and run, and then run some more, which the Jets can’t stop. Hill is a Ride. Don’t watch the game, just check the box score after and say thanks.
I’ve been fading Russell Wilson since he returned from injury, but this week I’m ready to put him in the Rides. Wilson looked more like himself last week, and this week he gets a Texans team that appears to be 22 dead men walking. Russ is ranked outside the top 10 this week and I think that’s too low.
I’m nervous to recommend Cam Newton, considering how awful he looked 2 weeks ago. The good news? He’s had an extra week to regroup and Carolina plays the Falcons this week, a defense that’s allowed 25 TD passes and the second most fantasy points to QBs on the season. Newton’s rushing floor makes him pretty safe, and he’s ranked down in the mid-teens. He’s a nice streamer this week.
Three other QBs I’d consider streaming this week, if you’re in need, fall in the category of sleepers as they’re all ranked 18 or lower: Forgotten man Ryan Tannehill at home against the Jaguars, Big Ben tonight vs the Vikings, who’ve allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs and seem to get into shootouts most weeks, and Teddy Bridgewater at home vs. the Lions, who have to travel to Denver nursing a hangover from their first win. Denver needs this game. But let’s make Tannehill the QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
The “expert” rankers continue to rank Lamar Jackson inside the top 5 every single week. This week he is the QB4. Have they watched his last handful of games? Have they checked his fantasy points scored? Or his INT totals? Or his repeated inability to get his team into the end zone? I have, and look, I’m a big fan of Lamar. But it’s time to be honest about his recent play and over the last 4 weeks he’s the QB 14 on a points per game basis. He struggled against the Browns a few weeks ago and the Ravens haven’t cracked 20 points in over a month. I hope I’m wrong on this one, because I need a monster week from him. Maybe some positive TD regression is coming, and if you have him you’re starting him (as I am), but Lamar is reluctantly my QB Fade of the Week.
I’m staying away from Derek Carr at the Chiefs. The KC defense is no joke right now, and I think this is a tough spot for Carr and the Raiders.
Last week Kirk Cousins was my QB Ride of the Week. This week, he’s a Fade. That’s how it goes sometimes. Minnesota is going to be without the TD machine (Adam Thielen) and also starting LT Christian Darrisaw. Mr. Cousins, meet Mr. Watt. The Steelers defense has been a little up and down, and I don’t think they’ll have a great answer for Justin Jefferson, but they’ll get in Kirk’s face all night and I expect him to struggle in this one.
Two more QBs I’d avoid this week are Matt Ryan against a very good Panthers defense, and Baker Mayfield at home against the Ravens
RB
Rides:
More of This, Please
It’s unclear if Melvin Gordon will return this week [SATURDAY UPDATE - he is expected to play] , but either way, I really like Javonte Williams to build on what he did last week and lead this backfield in a game the Broncos should control from start to finish. Williams scored on a catch and run last week and guess which team has allowed the most TD receptions to RBs? Yup, it’s the Lions, who’ve allowed 7, and they’ve also allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. Williams is ranked near the bottom of the top 10 and is my RB Ride of the Week.
Josh Jacobs caught 9 passes last week. What? I don’t think he saw 9 targets his entire rookie year, or that’s how it felt anyway. I don’t like the Raiders in this one, but I think they’ll feed Jacobs the ball regardless of game script. He’s ranked outside the top 10 this week and I like him to finish higher than that, especially in full PPR.
Another tough “split” backfield to handicap right now is Green Bay. Could this be an Aaron Jones week? Yes it could, and the rankers think so too, as he’s just inside the top 15. But I think Green Bay gets out to a nice lead in this one and salts it away with A.J. Dillon, who’s the RB 20 this week. Dillon has been outstanding and I like him better than Jones this week - he’s a Ride for me.
A few other Rides, all from outside the top 15 this week: Saquon Barkley at the Chargers (but I don’t feel great about it - he’s been bad), who are the NFL’s #1 “run funnel” defense, CEH against the Raiders, Devonta Freeman at Cleveland, D’Onta Foreman against the Jaguars, and Chuba Hubbard against the Falcons. The Falcons defense is bad, and has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs. Hubbard is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
And if you’re desperate this week, as I am, don’t feel like a lunatic if you fire up old man Adrian Peterson at Houston, or Rashaad Penny for that matter [SATURDAY UPDATE: Peterson is out with a back issue, but Alex Collins is expected back and should share the work with Penny and DeeJay Dallas. I still like Penny as a sleeper this week] . The Texans have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs, and they just waived Zach Cunningham, who led the NFL in tackles in 2020. Penny ran well last week, and Peterson has a nose for the end zone. I think they’ll split carries this week but both could be viable in this matchup. Another deep sleeper I like this week, again, if you’re needy, is Ameer Abdullah against the Falcons.
The Fades:
I’m staying away from James Robinson this week. He’s not 100%, the Titans are a top 10 run defense, and I think the Jaguars will struggle to sustain drives and to score. He’s my RB Fade of the Week.
There was a time when you could fire up both Browns running backs as fantasy options, and do so with confidence. But that hasn’t been the case for most of this season. I’d avoid Kareem Hunt this week. The Ravens are tough against the run and he might still be less than 100%.
I expect Jamaal Williams to again get a lot of work, but the sledding will be tougher against Denver, which has only allowed 5 rushing TDs to running backs all year. He only caught one pass last week which was a major disappointment considering the absence of D’Andre Swift. He’s a Fade for me. [SATURDAY UPDATE - Williams is OUT with COVID]
Two backfields I’d avoid entirely this week - the Jets RBs vs. the Saints (who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs even after Tony Pollard’s long TD run last week), and the Bills RBs at the Bucs, who’ve been stingy to the position all year (5th fewest fantasy points allowed).
If Elijah Mitchell (concussion, knee) misses this week’s game against the Bengals, I’d be leery of starting either Jeff Wilson or JaMycal Hasty (if Wilson is also out then go ahead and play Hasty). [SATURDAY UPDATE - Mitchell is OUT]
WR
Rides:
We Want Moore More
The consensus top 10 WRs this week (Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, Hill, D. Johnson, S. Diggs, Godwin, Lamb, Chase, Evans) is a murderers’ row - start them all with confidence. I’ll limit this week’s WR Rides to players ranked outside the top 10.
DJ Moore is the WR15 this week and I like his chances to crack the top 10, against a Falcons defense that’s, well, awful. They’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to QBs and are generous to WRs as well. This just feels like a get-right game for Carolina and I expect their leading WR to be a big part of it. Moore is my WR Ride of the Week.
I like the top WR for each team in the division game pitting the Ravens (Hollywood Brown) vs. Browns (Jarvis Landry). Landry has 18 targets over his last two games (sans OBJ) and the Ravens rank 31st in the NFL vs. the pass and just got wrecked by the Steelers’ top WR last week. As for Brown, he’s cooled off recently (along with the entire offense) after a torrid start but I like him to bounce back for a good game in this one - just a feeling. Landry is somehow the WR 30 this week! That’s ludicrous and it qualifies him to be my WR Sleeper of the Week. I’ll give you some real sleepers below - it’s a big week for WR sleepers.
It’s really hard to predict which Dallas WR(s) will get the TDs and big yards each week. They’ve got 3 really talented wideouts. Last week, Michael Gallup looked great in a featured role, as Amari Cooper was still limited and didn’t run a lot of routes. The WFT defense has improved over the course of the season (they’ve held each of their last 2 opponents to just 15 points), but they’ve still allowed the most fantasy points to QBs and the third most to WRs. I’ll ride with Cooper in this one.
I think it’s going to be a long day for the Raiders. But I also think Hunter Renfrow will benefit from game script and see double digit targets in the short and intermediate area in extended garbage time. He’s an attractive start in PPR formats.
Another name I like from further down the list is Jamison Crowder, who should benefit from the absence of Corey Davis, and greater attention to Elijah Moore (assuming Moore plays). Crowder should be busy out of the slot, and like Renfrow is a good play in PPR formats - he’s ranked outside the top 40 this week - one of many excellent sleepers to choose from.
Van Jefferson is the rookie WR you’ve heard the least about, but he’s been quietly tearing it up alongside the bigger names in this offense (Kupp and OBJ). He’s got 17 targets over the last 2 weeks, and a pair of TDs too. He’s another sleeper I like this week - and note, he was my WR Sleeper of the Week last week (and he delivered with 6-41-1).
I promised more sleepers, so here are 5 deep sleepers for you, all ranked outside the top 30 this week: Jaylen Guyton vs. the Giants (someone has to catch Justin Herbert’s passes), K.J. Osborn (stepping in for Adam Thielen), MVS against the woeful Bears (Rodgers will try at least 2 deep shots to him - write it down), Robby Anderson vs. the Falcons, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine against the Jaguars.
Fades:
Darnell Mooney has really been coming on, but the Packers have gotten healthier in the secondary and should be able to shut down the Bears’ passing game. Mooney snuck into the top 20 this week and I’m not buying it - he’s my WR Fade of the Week.
Russell Gage has been a pleasant surprise and is coming off a huge game, and I’m sure he will be targeted plenty by Matt Ryan. But I don’t like the matchup and I think he gets cooled off by the Panthers, who are one of 4 teams allowing less than 200 passing yards per game.
I’ll keep fading Courtland Sutton until he proves me wrong, even against Detroit. He’s vanished since Jerry Jeudy returned (Jeudy is an OK play this week).
Brandin Cooks has a lot of talent - but he’s stuck in BY FAR the worst offense in the league (the Texans average 254 YPG - that’s more than 40 yards less than any other team), which is now ping-ponging between 2 QBs. The Seahawks have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to WRs this year, and just 7 TDs to the position. Fade Cooks.
A few team WR fades for you - the Giants WRs at the Chargers (the Giants QB situation is a mess, and the Chargers have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs), the Saints WRs at the Jets (they can win by mostly running, including by their QB), and all of the Bills WRs at the Bucs other than Diggs. Yes, someone (or more) from these groups will score a TD and/or have a surprisingly strong catch and yardage total, but it’s awfully tough to guess which one and I’d just stay away.
TE
Rides:
Knox Should be Busy
Dawson Knox has a nice matchup with the Bucs, who are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to the position, and who’ve allowed the most overall passing yards on the season (a bit misleading, since they’re so often blowing out their opponents). Knox is ranked outside the top 5 this week and I think he’ll be a featured part of the Bills’ game plan in what could be a shootout. Knox is my TE Ride of the Week.
Pat Friermuth makes the list again. The Vikings are decent against Tight Ends but they’re not a good pass defense (they rank 25th overall), and Big Ben loves his big target near the goal line.
I like Zach Ertz to be more involved this week - the Cardinals only threw 15 passes last week as the Bears kept handing them the ball in Chicago territory. This week against the Rams should be very different, and I think Ertz is a decent play.
I can’t believe I’m recommending Evan Engram, who in recent years has burned fantasy analysts as much as any player. But here’s the thing - the Chargers are such a “funnel” defense of extremes - they allow the 4th most fantasy points to RBs, the 3rd fewest to WRs, and the 3rd most to TEs. It’s a good spot for Engram, who has talent but is maddeningly inconsistent. Engram is the TE19 this week and he is my TE Sleeper of the Week.
A few more TE sleepers I like this week, if you’re scrounging: Jared Cook and Donald Parham against the Giants, and Gerald Everett at the Texans - with all of these, you’re mostly just hoping to get lucky with a TD.
Fades:
One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result. That describes the fantasy “experts”, and their love affair with Kyle Pitts, as evidenced by their weekly rankings. Newsflash: Kyle Pitts isn’t a top 5 fantasy TE. Nor is he a top 10 fantasy TE. In fact, over the last 6 weeks he isn’t even a top 15 fantasy TE. Yes - he will probably be a great one, down the road. But this Sunday against the Panthers? Come on guys, read the box scores. You’re making this too easy. Pitts is again my TE Fade of the Week.
If you have T.J. Hockenson, you’re starting him. And I’m sure the Lions will try to involve him as much as they can. But Denver is as tough as it gets. They’ve allowed just one TD to a TE all year, and only the Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy points to the position. Hockenson is a Fade. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Hockenson is DOUBTFUL]
You know who else is really stingy to TEs? The Cardinals. They’ve allowed only 2 TDs to the position, and sit right behind Denver in fantasy points allowed to TEs. I’d stay away from Tyler Higbee this week unless you have no choice.
Noah Fant just keeps disappointing. Until he shows any kind of consistency, I’d look elsewhere, despite the talent.
That’s a wrap! Check back with the Pigskin Papers next Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
