Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 4
Fantasy Warning: Be Very Afraid of this Defense
(Published September 28, 2023, updated for injury and weather news, Sunday @noon, October 1, 2023)
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Welcome, readers, to Week 4. Week 3 was one for the ages (if you had some Dolphins stacked). But that wasn’t the only game that had fireworks and for the first time this year, we had a high scoring week. Rather than trying to recap Week 3, here are just a few of my favorite stats from the week, and the season so far. If you’ve got a fun stat to add, put it in the comments below the article.
In each of their 3 games, the 49ers have 3 TDs + 3 PATs + 3 FGs = 30 points.
The Browns have yet to allow 10 first downs in a game, and have allowed only 21 first downs, total, through 3 games.
The Jets have amassed fewer total yards in their 3 games than the 726 yards that Miami put up on Denver in Week 3.
The Jets have lost 15 straight games to the Patriots, and only topped 17 points in one of those 15 losses.
The Giants have been outscored 63-6 in the first half.
The Dolphins became the 4th team in NFL history, and the first since 1966, to score 70 points in a game.
Raheem Mostert had 142 total yards and 4 TDs, and Tua had this passing line: 23-26-309-4-0. For the week, Mostert scored the second most fantasy points among Miami RBs, and Tua had the second highest QBR and rating among Miami QBs.
The top 5 ball carrier speeds of this season are all Dolphins (1. De’Von Achane (21.93 MPH), 2. Tyreek Hill (21.63), 3. Raheem Mostert (21.62), 4. Hill (21.52), 5. Achane (21.50).
Sam Howell threw an INT in each quarter of the Commanders’ loss to the Bills.
Keenan Allen had the most receptions in a game (18) for a player who also threw a TD pass in the game.
Matt Gay was a perfect 5-5 on FGs this Sunday, and set an NFL record by hitting 4 from 50 yards or longer in a single game, including the game winner in OT.
FB Andrew Beck of the Texans (255 pounds) is the heaviest player to have a 50+ yard kick return TD in NFL history.
Lamar Jackson had his second career game of 200+ passing yards, 100+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing TDs. No other player has hit all of those marks in a single game.
Patrick Mahomes is the fastest player to reach 25,000 passing yards since at least the 1970 merger. It took him 83 games. Matthew Stafford is next best (90 games).
C.J. Stroud is one of only 3 QBs since the 1970 merger to have 900+ passing yards across his first 3 starts (Cam Newton, Justin Herbert).
Josh Allen has not gone consecutive games without committing a turnover since Weeks 15-16, 2020.
Tyreek Hill now has 33 TDs of 40+ yards. That’s the most since 2010, despite the fact that Hill entered the league in 2016.
Dolphins 70, Broncos 20 was, unsurprisingly, a Scorigami, and Eagles 25, Bucs 11 was also one.
********** WEEK 4 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: 2023-waiver-wire-week-4 .**********
******SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES******
Weather Report: Very good (and warm) weather is forecasted for all games (and multiple games are in domes).
Injury Report (note, players on IR are not listed):
OUT: J. Garoppolo (Aidan O’Connell gets his first career start for the Raiders), D. Watson (Dorian Thompson-Robinson gets his first career start), Z. Jones, O. Beckham, R. Bateman, T. Burks, Q. Watkins, I. Smith
DOUBTFUL: A. Ekeler
GTD: D. Njoku (ACTIVE)
IN/RETURNING: A. Richardson, B. Young, A. Kamara, G. Edwards, K. Hunt, C. Akers, J. Waddle, B. Aiyuk, L. Thomas, D. Smythe
QUESTIONABLE, EXPECTED TO PLAY:
QB: D. Carr (ACTIVE)
RB: M. Sanders (ACTIVE), J. Hill (ACTIVE), C. Patterson (ACTIVE)
WR: D. Samuel, M. Brown
TE: T. Higbee (ACTIVE)
QUESTIONABLE, NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY: S. Barkley, E. Mitchell, J. Jennings, C. Claypool (healthy scratch)
* * * * * *
Week 4 BYES: None, but they do start next week.
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: SF (29), BUF (28.25), LAC (26.75), PHI (26.5), KC (26)
Bottom 5: ARI (15), NYJ (16), NE (18), WAS (18), TB (18.75)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED: We now have 3 weeks of data, so the sample size is becoming meaningful. And check this out - through 3 games, the Browns are top 2 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. They’re rapidly becoming a stay-away for everyone except the elites.
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. CLE 3. SF 4. DAL 5. LA (NFC)
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. LA (AFC) 3. MIN 4. PHI 5. IND
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. CLE 3. DAL 4. NO 5. JAX
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CHI 3. CAR 4. PIT 5. HOU
Top 5 vs WR: 1. CLE 2. NY (AFC) 3. HOU 4. BUF 5. CAR
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LA (AFC) 2. MIN 3. SEA 4. TEN 5. PIT
Top 5 vs TE: 1. CLE 2. BAL 3. NE 4. WAS 5. PIT
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. PHI 2. NY (AFC) 3. DET 4. ATL 5. LV
Week 4 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers were on fire this past week, with the hits outnumbering the misses by a lot. WR Ride of the Week Keenan Allen headlines a bunch of big hits. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-3-1 .
Herbert is Delivering the Fantasy Goods Weekly
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Herbert (vs. LV) - We are almost at the point where he gets taken off the table as “elite”. He’s basically tied with Kirk Cousins as the QB1 through 3 weeks and with their defense continuing to struggle, he’ll continue to throw, throw, throw. Even with the loss of Mike Williams, there probably won’t be much of a slowdown and especially against the Raiders, who’ve already given up 7 TD passes.
Other Rides:
Trevor Lawrence (vs. ATL) - He was the Fade of the Week last week (ka-ching), but this week is a different story and I like him to bounce back in London against a gettable ATL defense.
Justin Fields (vs. Den) and Russell Wilson (@CHI) - The 2 defenses that square off in this game gave up a combined 113 points last week. That’s not a typo. Yes, it was against the Dolphins and Chiefs, but so what? This game will have plenty of offense and the QBs should both be solid plays.
Other Rides ranked in the Top 15: Brock Purdy (vs. ARI), Daniel Jones (vs. SEA), and Geno Smith (@NYG).
QB Sleeper of the Week: Jordan Love (vs. DET) - He was slightly down last week, but he’s exceeded expectations and Christian Watson is expected to make his season debut, and Aaron Jones is trending towards returning as well. The Lions’ D was terrific last week but that was against a one-dimensional ATL offense. Love is a good bet to put up borderline QB1 numbers this week.
Other Sleepers:
Andy Dalton (vs. MIN, and assuming he starts again) - Dalton had a very solid outing on the road last week, and now he gets to play at home against a struggling defense that’s allowed the third most FPPG to QBs. He’s a sneaky Superflex start and DFS play.
Matthew Stafford (@IND) - He’s going to keep slinging it, every game., and the Colts have allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: L. Jackson (@CLE) - If you have Lamar you’re starting him, and he was fantasy gold this past week. But the Browns have basically given up nothing to opposing offenses in 3 games other than one long TD pass to George Pickens. They’ve allowed both the fewest passing and rushing yards to opposing QBs (the rushing total is actually negative), and only that one TD. Maybe Lamar cracks the code, and maybe I’m overreacting to 3 games, but I’m nervous about starting ANYONE against the Browns right now.
Other Fades:
Jared Goff (@GB) - I’ve been on him the last 2 weeks, which were home games. The Packers can still cover and rush the passer, and I expect a struggle for Goff.
Dak Prescott (vs. NE) - One of these weeks, Dak is going to break out, but I don’t like the odds this week against a Patriots’ defense that’s been pretty stingy so far (6th fewest FPPG to QBs). That ranking includes games vs. the Dolphins and Eagles.
Kenny Pickett (@HOU) - If he’s your QB2 in a Superflex, I’d think twice about dialing him up against the Texans. They’ve only allowed 2 TD passes in 3 games.
Moss is Making the Most of his Opportunity in Indy
RB:
Elite options - CMC; the analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week:
Zach Moss (vs. LAR ) - Moss had 32 touches last week, which was all but 6 of the Colts’ RB opportunities. In Week 2, he played 98% of the snaps and also dominated touches. He’s getting a bigger piece of the pie than any other RB in the league, and is making the most of that opportunity, He’s ranked just outside the Top 10 this week and I think he’ll put up another Top 10 finish at home against the Rams, a middling run defense..
Other Rides:
James Cook (vs. MIA) - Here is the list of RBs with more scrimmage yards on the season than James Cook: CMC. That’s it. The only thing missing for Cook this season is TDs. Miami has allowed the 7th most FPPG to RBs, and this game should be pretty high scoring.
Josh Jacobs (@LAC) - I’ll zig while others zag. Yes, he’s off to a very slow start, but he also got off to a slow start last year and ended up rushing for over 1,600 yards. He’s getting elite usage, and is probably still playing himself into shape after his preseason holdout. In his last game vs. the Chargers he ran for 144 yards and a score. I’m in this week.
A few more RBs ranked inside the Top 20 who I think will outperform their weekly ranking are: R. Mostert (@BUF), A. Mattison (@CAR), D. Swift (vs. WAS), and A. Jones (@DET).
A little further down the rankings (all of these players are ranked in the 20s this week), give me these RB2s: A. Kamara in his first game back (@TB), D. Pierce (vs. PIT) and K. Herbert (vs. DEN).
RB Sleeper of the Week:
Roschon Johnson (vs. DEN) - I know, I have 2 Bears’ RBs in the Rides and Sleepers section, and their QB might go off running as well. Denver allowed a total of around 350 yards and 8 TDs to Miami’s RBs last week. That will probably never happen again to any team, but their defense is in disarray and I think both Chicago RBs are flex-worthy this week.
Other Sleepers:
David Montgomery (@GB) is expected back tonight and I think you can plug him back in as an RB2 or flex. The Packers are allowing 150 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs. He’s ranked outside the top 35 RBs this week.
These guys are all ranked below 32 this week, but I think all of them can deliver RB2 numbers: J. Warren (@HOU), K. Gainwell (vs. WAS), and E. Mitchell (vs. ARI, and this is mostly a garbage-time call - UPDATE NOTE, Mitchell is not expected to play).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week:
Joe Mixon (@TEN) - I know that he scored last week, and that the Titans gave up 2 total TDs to Jerome Ford in Week 3. No matter. This is a bad matchup against a stout run defense and Mixon has yet to put up more than 65 rushing yards in a game this season.
Other Fades:
Rachaad White (@NO) - He’s had one good game out of 3, and it was against the Bears. The Saints have allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs this year, and have yet to give up a TD to an RB.
Isiah Pacheco (@NYJ) - He’s sharing work with 2 other backs, and the Jets are a tough matchup. (they also haven’t allowed any TDs to RBs so far this season).
BAL RBs, NYJ RBs - Both have bad matchups, and in the case of the Jets, it’s a dysfunctional and very low-scoring offense right now.
WR Ride of the Week: It Worked so Well, Let’s Run it Back
WR:
Elite options - FOR THIS WEEK: Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Adams, Diggs; the analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week:
Keenan Allen (vs. LV) - Maybe he’s risen to elite status after last week’s performance. He was also my WR Ride of the Week last Week, and was a Ride the week before that, and boy has he delivered. To quote John Candy in the movie Splash, “when something works for me, I stick with it.” Allen has another plus matchup this week and with MikeWil hurt, he should again dominate targets.
Other Rides:
I’ll roll with Puka Nacua at the Colts. He leads the NFL in targets (42), and with Cooper Kupp still out, he’s the main guy in a very pass-heavy offense. The Colts are bottom-10 in FPPG allowed to WRs, so while we are here, I’ll also ride Tutu Atwell as a WR2/flex play.
A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts started to get on the same page last week. They should be able to build on that this week, against a suspect Commanders’ secondary that’s bottom-10 in FPPG allowed to WRs.
A few WRs ranked in the teens that I like this week are M. Pittman (vs. LAR), D. Smith (vs. WAS) ,and C. Ridley (vs. ATL, and that’s assuming he can stop dropping passes).
Moving further down into the WR2/3 range, here are some more Rides this week: J. Meyers (@LAC), T. Dell (vs. PIT), and A. Thielen (vs. CAR).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Courtland Sutton (@CHI) - This game should be high-scoring, as both defenses are awful. Sutton is coming off a very good game (8-91-1 on 11 targets) and has a good shot to repeat his numbers from last week.
Other Sleepers:
Gabe Davis (vs. MIA) - This game has the highest total of the week, and Miami has struggled some vs. perimeter WRs. Davis has scored in 2 straight. He only caught one pass in last week’s blowout and should be busier this week.
Here are a few more WRs ranked below 35 this week who I think can deliver in lineups: J. Addison (@CAR), D.J. Moore (vs. DEN). J. Palmer (vs. LV), and E. Moore (vs. BAL).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Garrett Wilson (vs. KC) - I ran back my WR Ride of the Week, and after another dismal performance from the Jets’ passing game, I’m also running back the WR Fade of the Week. I hate putting Wilson here again, but his 5-48-0 line from last week is sadly what it’s come to for this young star. The Jets are dead last in the NFL in a number of offensive categories including points, yards, passing yards, and first downs. You can’t trust anything in this offense, and KC brings a solid defense.
Other Fades:
Terry McLaurin (@PHI) - Speaking of broken offenses, Sam Howell was horrific last week, and so was his O-Line. It won’t get much easier against Philadelphia’s aggressive pass rush. McLaurin has had some good games vs. the Eagles, but I’ll pass.
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. CIN) - THe Titans are another offense that’s struggling on all fronts. The Bengals will get after Ryan Tannehill, and I expect a low-scoring affair. I’ll continue to wait on Nuk.
Drake London (@JAC) - London goes to London. I doubt the consistency will be any better than it’s been on this side of the Atlantic. He’s really hard to trust in a lineup right now.
George Pickens (@HOU) - the Texans’ D continues to impress against the pass. They’ve allowed the third fewest FPPG to WRs. I don’t like this matchup for Pickens and the other Steelers’ wideouts.
It’s Now or Never for Waller and Co.
TE:
Elite option - Kelce; the analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Darren Waller (vs. SEA) - This is not a high confidence pick, and outside of one half vs. Arizona, the Big Blue offense has been terrible. This is their chance to have a get-right game, against a Seattle defense that struggles to contain TEs. They allowed the most FPPG to TEs last year, and are allowing the 6th most so far this year. This offense should run through Waller with Saquon likely out again. Let’s see if it happens
Other Rides:
I’lll ride both of the rookie TEs in the Thursday nighter (Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave). LaPorta has yet to finish worse than the TE8 in any week, and he’s the TE2 on the season. He’s already in must-start territory, and I think Musgrave warrants a start this week also.
George Kittle (vs. ARI) is an obvious name this week and especially with both starting WRs ailing. I’ll ride him,, along with Evan Engram (vs. ATL) and Hunter Henry (@DAL).
TE Sleeper of the Week: Dalton Kincaid (vs. MIA) - I’m all over the rookie TEs this week. It could end up being Dawson Knox who gets the goodies in this one, but this is probably going to be an all-hands-on-deck shootout.
Other Sleepers:
Gerald Everett (vs. LV) - Donald Parham has been vulturing TDs, but I think Everett is the better every-down player, and with more targets up for grabs, he should see a bump in opportunities.
Two deeper sleepers: Taysom Hill (vs. TB) and Kyle Granson (vs. LAR).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Kyle Pitts (@JAC) - The good news is he’s coming off his best game of the season. The bad news is he’s coming off a 5-41-0 game (on 9 targets). The usage was good, but I’ve got no confidence in this passing offense or in Desmond Ridder. The rankers keep putting Pitts in the top 10, despite the fact that he almost never delivers a Top-10 week, even at such a thin position. No thanks.
Other Fades:
This whole position feels like a Fade after the top 6-7 guys, but I’ll add these names to the Fades list, because even though all were drafted as borderline TE1s/2s, at this point it’s very hard to have confidence in any of them in any given week, regardless of matchup: C. Kmet (vs. DEN), D. Schultz (vs. Pit), D. Njoku (vs. BAL), and J. Jones (vs. TB).
That’s all I’ve got. Good luck to all in Week 4!
DH
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