Pigskin Papers: 2023 Waiver Wire Week 4
This Dolphin Rookie Made a Huge Splash in Week 3
(Published September 25, 2023)
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Welcome to the Waiver Wire, Week 4. This past weekend of NFL action featured a little bit of everything - close finishes, extremely lopsided games, offenses that did absolutely nothing, and a few ridiculous fantasy performances. At one extreme: Tennessee’s offense gained a total of 94 yards at Cleveland, while scoring just 3 points. At the other: Miami’s offense gained 726 yards against Denver, en route to 10 TDs and 70 points. Of interest for this column: A running back who was inactive in Week 1 and only had 2 touches in Week 2, and is available in a lot of leagues, accounted for 233 of those Miami yards and 4 of their TDs. De’Von Achane, a track star on a team full of track stars, is this week’s priority add. The question is what to expect from him going forward. More on that below.
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”
WEEK 4 BYES - None, BUT, the byes start next week (Week 5), when these 4 teams will be off: CLE, LAC, SEA, and TB. A good strategy with byes is to try to plan ahead, and grab the top streamers (if you need them) at the “onesie’ positions (QB, TE, PK and D/ST) a week early, jumping the competition. So if this applies to you, and you need a streamer next week, take a look at the WEEK 5 schedule and see if an early pickup makes sense.
Houston’s Rookie QB is Turning Heads
Week 4 Waiver Wire:
QB:
C.J. Stroud. He makes the column this week after another solid outing. Here’s the list of QBs who’ve put up 900+ passing yards in their first 3 career starts, since the 1970 merger: Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud. That’s it. Stroud is impressing early, he’s got good weapons at his disposal, and his O-Line is getting healthier. He’s a very serviceable QB2 in a Superflex, or streamer/spot-starter in 1-QB leagues.
I wouldn’t go crazy trying to get either Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton. It’s unclear how many starts they’ll each get, and we’ve seen them plenty of times before and know what we’re likely to get with them. Both can be serviceable, but both can struggle with turnovers. If you’re absolutely stuck, then sure.
If Kyler Murray is on your waiver wire and you’ve got the space (ideally, an IR spot), consider adding him as a long-term stash play. The Cardinals aren’t a dumpster fire, and he’s eligible to come off IR as early as Week 5 (but it will probably be later).
I’ll mention Matt Stafford again. The Rams are throwing a ton, and at some point he’ll have Cooper Kupp added to the mix.
Zeke Was Busy Against the Jets
RB:
De’Von Achane is fast, as in very fast. As in, home-run speed. He can take any touch to the house. In the design of this offense, he won’t need all that many touches to have appeal as an RB2 or flex. A few words of caution: (1) Jeff Wilson will be back at some point, so there could be a lot of competition for touches, (2) Raheem Mostert is playing great, and is still the clear RB1, and (3) this past week was surely an outlier, in terms of an NFL offense completely going off. Achane’s performance seemingly came out of nowhere and it’s hard to know exactly what it portends. I’d bet on at least an 8-12 touch role going forward, which could go up, and the upside makes him a priority add. After a tough matchup this week (@BUF), the schedule gets easier for a bit.
After logging just 12 carries over the first 2 games, Ezekiel Elliott got half of the carries in a very run-heavy game in the rain this past weekend. His stat line (16-80) was better than that of Rhamondre Stevenson, who is averaging less than 3 YPC on the season. Elliott could continue to garner a more sizable share of the early-down work going forward, and he’s worth an add for depth. The Pats play at Dallas this week…
Another week, another injury to a BAL running back. I could sear we’ve seen this season before. I don’t know if we’ll see any RB have week-to-week consistency for this team, and I can’t really recommend picking up Melvin Gordon or Kenyan Drake.
On the other hand, here are a few “backup” RB stashes that I do think are worth your while: Tank Bigsby, Elijah Mitchell, and Rico Dowdle.
Adam Thielen - Garbage Time Still Counts
WR:
Tank Dell made the column last week and after another huge game (5-145-1), this figures to be the last week where he’ll be available in a lot of leagues. The volume might not be that consistent, but he’s showing a penchant for making big plays.
Adam Thielen had a monster game this week (11-145-1), with Andy Dalton under center. The offense was stagnant in Bryce Young’s 2 starts, so it’s hard to know what to expect going forward, but Thielen is the top target on a team that’s going to be trailing in most games, and there’s fantasy value in that. Add him. If you miss out on him, you can also consider D.J. Chark, for many of the same reasons.
With Mike Williams lost for the season, Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston both warrant consideration. The Chargers are getting into shootouts and throwing a ton. Palmer is the more likely to see greater volume in the near-term, but Johnston might have more upside as the season goes on.
Marvin Mims is worth stashing. I was on him in the preseason as a sleeper, and so far he isn’t getting a lot of run. However, he’s making big plays when he does. This team is awful, and will be trailing a lot. I expect Mims to get more snaps and routes as the season progresses. Two more big-play threats who I think will never be every-week starts but are decent stashes/emergency flexes: Rashid Shaheed and Kalif Raymond.
TE:
I’m assuming Sam LaPorta (who has made this column several times already) is now rostered in almost every league. If he’s available, grab him.
Donald Parham got 2 TDs last week, but I think Gerald Everett is the better add, with some additional targets up for grabs for the Chargers.
PK Streamers, Week 4: G. Joseph (@CAR), M. Gay (vs. LAR)
D/ST Streamers, Week 4: HOU (vs. PIT), NO (vs. TB), KC (@NYJ)
Good luck with all of your waiver claims!
DH
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