Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - 2022 Week 1
Here We Go!
(Published September 8, 2022, Injury and Weather update September 11, 2022, 9:00 a.m. eastern)
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Welcome to the Pigskin Papers’ 2022 in-season fantasy content! We’re excited to be back for another season. For those who were with us in 2021, welcome back! For those who are new to our coverage, welcome aboard. Each week, we’ll provide a Waiver Wire column (Tuesday mornings) and a fantasy preview column (Thursdays) to help you navigate the minefields of injuries, matchups, and other factors that impact the decisions of fantasy managers. We’ll also provide a weekly fantasy recap each Tuesday. If you’re in a hurry, here is a Cheatsheet version of the Rides, Fades and Sleepers: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-cheatsheet-2022-week-1 .
Team Offense Report
Before we turn to the Rides, Fades and Sleepers, here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 1:
Top 5: 1. KC (29), 2. LAC (28), 3. BUF (27.5), 4. IND (27), 5. PHI (26.5)
Bottom 5: 1. CHI (17), 2. SEA (18.25), T3. ATL (18.75), T3. NYJ (18.75), 5. PIT (19)
Team Defense Report
We obviously don’t yet have any defensive stats to go on for the 2022 season, but we want information on defensive matchups to exploit, or to be leery of. So let’s look at the best and worst defenses, in terms of fantasy points allowed vs. each offensive position in 2021 (full PPR):
Top 5 vs. QB: 1. BUF, 2. NE, 3. LAR, 4. NO, 5. DEN
Bottom 5 vs. QB: 32. WAS, 31. ATL, 30. BAL, 29. KC, 28. NYJ
Top 5 vs. RB: 1. TEN, 2. NO, 3. TB, 4. DAL, 5. IND
Bottom 5 vs. RB: 32. NYJ, 31. DET, 30. SEA, 29. LAC, 28. HOU
Top 5 vs. WR: 1. BUF, 2. PHI, 3. LAC, 4. NE, 5. LV
Bottom 5 vs. WR: 32. MIN, 31. TEN, 30. BAL, 29. ARI, 28. WAS
Top 5 vs. TE: 1. NE, 2. ARI, 3. DEN, 4. BUF, 5. TEN
Bottom 5 vs. TE: 32. LAC, 31. PHI, 30. LV, 29. BAL, 28. NYJ
Weather Watch, 9-11: A number of games have a chance of showers and/or high heat and humidity, The only potential for significant weather issues looks to be SF@CHI, where heavy rain and moderate to strong winds are expected around kickoff with the wind continuing all day.
Injury Watch - Updated Saturday 9/11:
QB: No significant injuries of note, other than Z. Wilson missing this week and being replaced by J. Flacco.
RB: No new info on J.K. Dobbins as of 9:00 a.m., he is deemed questionable, but my guess is that even if he plays he won’t see a full complement of snaps. K. Walker is now questionable rather than doubtful - but it’s the Monday night game so you’ll need a pivot if you’re trying to get him into your lineup. I’d pass.
WR: M. Gallup and R. Moore are OUT. C. Godwin is expected to play, but might see limited snaps, so I’d be careful with him. R. Gage is questionable for the Bucs also. A. Lazard is doubtful - making each of S. Watkins, R. Doubs and C. Watson a dart throw, in that order. Expected to Play: D. London, M. Thomas, J. Meyers, K. Toney and S. Shepherd.
TE: G. Kittle is doubtful. Z. Ertz and L. Thomas are expected to play.
BYES Week 1: None
Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up start/sit exercise, and as a general rule, start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” because they aren’t really in a position to overperform, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Jonathan Taylor against the Texans. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Here we go, the Week 1 Rides, Fades and Sleepers!
QB:
Rides and Sleepers:
Can Captain Kirk Keep it Going Against the Pack?
Let’s get this out of the way now. The consensus top 12 fantasy QBs are weekly must-starts, for the most part. Recommending any of them feels like cheating, but I also can’t just ignore the entire top 12 each week. Here is that top 12, and after the first 6, I see little difference from a fantasy perspective among the second 6: Allen, Herbert, Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Hurts, Rodgers, R. Wilson, Brady, Burrow, Prescott and Stafford. Of those top 12, the one who sticks out for me this week to beat what are already high expectations is Jalen Hurts at the Lions. Hurts is ranked as the QB5 this week, so this is hardly a bold call, but I like him for a top 3 finish this week. He’s got an excellent matchup, in a game that should be high-scoring. Hurts has new toys to play with and I think he goes nuts in Week 1 against an improved but still vulnerable Detroit D. The Eagles are for real and he’s my QB Ride of the Week.
The constantly disrespected Kirk Cousins is ranked as the QB 15 this week, at home against a tough Green Bay defense. Cousins has had his way at home against this defense recently (including in a 34-31 shootout win last November, where he threw for 341 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs). Captain Kirk has excellent weapons, and new HC Kevin O’Connell came over from the Rams and should bring an upgrade to the offense. His top 10 fantasy season starts this week.
3 QBs ranked outside the top 15 and who I really like this week are Jameis Winston at ATL, Matt Ryan at HOU, and Trevor Lawrence at WAS. Yes, all 3 are on the road, but they all have plus matchups, and are on offenses that should be improved this season. Ride them all, and let’s make Lawrence the QB Sleeper of the Week.
Fades:
You know what I’m not looking forward to? Finding QBs to fade each week from that vaunted top 12. This week is no exception, but I can’t stare at my keyboard forever. I have to type something. So here goes. It was a weird offseason for Tom Brady, and especially his recent 11 day absence from the team. I’m always nervous fading him, but he’s ranked well inside the top 10 this week and I see a bunch of red flags - he’s on the road against a decent defense that brings pressure and causes turnovers, his O-line is very banged up, he’ll probably be without Chris Godwin, and I can’t believe I’m saying this but I don’t know how ready or committed he is right now. I may regret this, and if you drafted him you’re 100% starting him, but the GOAT is my QB Fade of the Week.
Matt Stafford is another guy you’re starting, but this is a week to temper expectations, and the rankers agree as they’ve put him outside the top 12. The Bills gave up the fewest fantasy points to both QBs and WRs last year and even with Tre’Davious White sidelined, they’re tough, plus they added pass rush specialist Von Miller who we last saw winning a Super Bowl with Stafford’s Rams. I think the elbow is OK, and I love the A-Rob addition. Stafford will have another very good year. I just don’t think it starts until Week 2.
You aren’t considering them in 1 QB leagues, but in a Superflex or DFS I’d stay away from Justin Fields (vs. SF) and Mac Jones (at MIA) this week.
RB:
Rides and Sleepers:
At Long Last, the Travis Etienne Debut
Alvin Kamara comes in as the RB7 this week, and I think he’s got a legitimate shot to be the top scoring RB of the week, against a Falcons’ defense that’s got good corners and not much else. This is a bitter rivalry, but right now these teams are pretty far apart in talent. Kamara is my RB Ride of the Week.
You have to love the NFL schedule makers, sending Russell Wilson back to Seattle immediately, in prime time. If the Seahawks aren’t the worst team in the NFL this season, they’re close. They allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs last year, and there’s no reason to expect that to improve in a year where they figure to be trailing often. This one could get out of hand, so let’s ride both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon without looking back.
Travis Etienne makes his NFL debut this week and I think it could be a memorable one. The Commanders were a decent run defense last year, other than allowing the most receiving TDs (9) to RBs. Etienne is going to catch a lot of passes this year - and by a lot I mean an 80 catch season wouldn’t surprise me. James Robinson is only 9 months removed from tearing his achilles and probably won’t get whatever his full workload is going to be. Etienne is ranked outside the top 15 this week and I like him to sneak into the top 10 and especially in full PPR.
Speaking of bad run defenses, the Lions allowed the second most fantasy points to RBs last season, and I think this is the week you ride Miles Sanders with confidence. He comes in as the RB30 this week and I think he’ll give you solid RB2 numbers.
Only one run defense was worse than the Lions last year, and that was the Jets, who were historically bad and allowed an astounding 23 rushing TDs on the season. I don’t think J.K. Dobbins is going to play this week, and if he does I expect him to only get a partial workload, in a game the Ravens should dominate. Enter Mike Davis. Yes, they signed Kenyan Drake 8 days ago but given how recent that was, I expect Davis to lead the backfield if Dobbins is out or limited. If you’re trying to find Davis in this week’s rankings, flip to page 3. He’s the RB50, and for me that’s an easy call for the RB Sleeper of the Week - and a deep sleeper at that, for you DFS players.
2 more sleepers for you: I think J.D. McKissic could have a pretty big role, and some success, against the Jags. Ditto Nyheim Hines at the Texans.
Fades:
I want no part of Cam Akers on Thursday night. The Bills aren’t an easy draw, and I really didn’t like how Akers looked in the playoffs last year. I expect this to be much more of a shared backfield than you’d want for fantasy purposes. Akers is my RB Fade of the Week.
I think David Montgomery is a good running back - he runs hard and can break tackles. He should see plenty of volume, providing a decent floor each week. The problem is the rest of the team, which brings down his ceiling. He’s got a terrible O-line in front of him, and the Bears’ passing game is as short on weapons as you’ll find in the NFL. With the stout 49ers defense coming to town, Monty is a fade for me this week.
I’m not down on Ezekiel Elloitt this season - he played hurt for much of last season, and I think he’s going to surprise with his play this year. But I don’t think the “Zeke is back” music will be too loud this week. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to RBs last season and with LT Tyron Smith’s hamstring tear forcing a line reshuffle and Michael Gallup slowly returning from an ACL injury, it may take a week or two for the Cowboys offense to be clicking like it eventually will. I’d also temper expectations on Tony Pollard.
Two backfields I’d avoid completely this week are the Jets (vs BAL) and Falcons (vs. NO). The volume shares for both backfields are unclear coming into the season, and the matchups are bad - Saints and Ravens ranked #2 and #9 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs last season.
WR
Rides and Sleepers:
Michael Pittman, Jr. has Arrived
If you’ve been reading my preseason content, you know that I’m all-in on Michael Pittman this season, and I like the opening week matchup at Houston. Pittman comes in as the WR10 this week, and I foresee the first of multiple top 7 weekly finishes for him. He’s my WR Ride of the Week.
Hollywood Brown, at WR 17 this week, jumps out at me as a strong ride and a big DFS value. The Cards open at home against the Chiefs, and this game has the highest Vegas total of the week (54). With Hopkins out for the first 6 games, Kirk gone, and Ertz iffy, I think Hollywood will be among the NFL’s target leaders this week. Plus, he’s going up against a pass defense that was bottom-quartile in fantasy points allowed to WRs last season, and could need time to adjust to life without the honey badger.
Mike Williams is ranked outside the top 15 this week. I think he’ll get behind the Raiders’ defense for at least one big play, in what should be the first of many high scoring AFC west affairs this season. Ride Williams this week - he started out hot last season and nobody should be surprised if he does so again.
4 more rides for you, from a little further down in the rankings: Christian Kirk at the Commanders, Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. the Eagles, Adam Thielen vs. the Packers, and if he plays, Allen Lazard in the same game (Saturday update - Lazard is listed as doubtful). All 4 are ranked outside the top 25 this week. Kirk is all the way down at WR34, and against a Commanders’ defense that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs and the most fantasy points to QBs, I’ll make Kirk my WR Sleeper of the Week - and after he goes off this week, I don’t think you’ll see him listed as a sleeper again this season.
If you’re looking for deeper sleepers, if Lazard doesn’t play, Romeo Doubs and Sammy Watkins are two decent longshots, going up against a Vikings’ pass defense that allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season. Two other deep sleepers I like this week are Jahan Dotson against the Jags and (gulp) Julio Jones at Dallas.
Fades:
I think Tyreek Hill is going to be fine in Miami. He won’t put up the kind of numbers he did in KC, but he’s still an elite talent with a top gear that nobody can touch. J.C. Jackson left for the Chargers in the offseason, and the Pats’ pass D is likely to take a hit as a result. Still, only the Bills allowed fewer passing yards to WRs last season, and one thing the Pats have always done well is to take away an opponent’s best weapon. Hill is ranked just inside the top 10 this week and I’m lower on him than that. He’s my WR Fade of the Week.
There’s a lot of hype around Rashod Bateman this season, and I get it. He’s the clear No.1 WR for the Ravens, and the clear #2 passing target behind Mark Andrews. I don’t think the Ravens will need a lot out of Bateman this week, and I also think he’ll be covered in Sauce. I think that’s going to be a thing. I’m fading him.
Much of what I wrote above about David Montgomery applies to Darnell Mooney. Mooney is a good player in a bad overall situation. He’ll see lots of target volume this season, especially since the rest of the Bears’ WR room is pretty much a wasteland. He’ll have his moments, but I’d be careful with him this week against the 49ers.
I’d stay away from Chris Godwin if he suits up. My guess is he won’t get his full complement of snaps and routes. The same is true for Michael Gallup if he plays (Saturday update - Gallup is officially OUT).
We’ve got a lot of high profile rookie WRs making their debuts this week. The first WR taken in the 2022 NFL draft was Drake London. I like his opportunity in Atlanta this season, but not this week, as Marshon Lattimore welcomes him to the NFL. He’s also been dealing with a sore knee and might not be 100%. I’d also avoid fellow first rounders Garrett Wilson and Treylon Burks in their NFL debuts.
TE
Rides and Sleepers:
Waller - The Next TE to Exploit the Charger D?
The Chargers really struggled vs TEs last year, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points and a whopping 13 TDs to the position. So why is Darren Waller, who is a consensus top 5 TE, ranked outside the top 5 this week? I have no idea, but he’s my TE Ride of the Week.
The only team that gave up more TDs to TEs than the Chargers did last season was the Eagles, who yielded 14, and the second most fantasy points to the position. The Lions are going to need to put the pedal to the metal to keep up with Philly, so I’ll ride T.J. Hockenson this week.
Another team that struggled against this position last season was the Seahawks, who figure to struggle against almost every position this season. I like Albert O this week, and especially with him ranked outside the top 12.
The TE position is thin once again this season - meaning there are fewer safe plays, and lots of players you might call sleepers. With Donald Parham still sidelined with a hamstring injury, I like Gerald Everett best out of the TEs ranked outside the top 15, and I’ll make him my TE Sleeper of the Week. Other sleepers I like this week: David Njoku at CAR, and Mo Alie-Cox at HOU.
Fades:
The Patriots allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards, and fantasy points to TEs last season, and with Mike Gesicki expected to run fewer routes this year (while doing more blocking), he’s an easy TE Fade of the Week call.
Zach Ertz isn’t 100% healthy, so if he goes, I’m not sure I trust him to be his usual self. I’d look elsewhere.
This might be a revenge game for Noah Fant, but I’m fading him. Denver was another defense that was very tough on TEs last year, yielding just 2 TDs and the 3rd fewest fantasy points.
Good luck to all in Week 1 and throughout the season. Check back with the Pigskin Papers on Tuesday for the weekly waiver wire column, and the weekly fantasy recap.
***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***
DH
