Fantasy Football ‘22: 15 Not-So-Bold Predictions
Deebo, Meet Mr. Regression
(Published August 31, 2022)
It’s Draft Week, so I know you’re all busy cramming. I was ready to write a Bold Predictions column for you to digest, but after thinking about it, decided against it. What good are bold predictions? I want to help you win your fantasy league, and telling you things that have a 10% chance (at best) of coming to pass isn’t going to contribute much to that effort. So instead, I’m making some predictions about certain players that I actually think have a good chance of happening. So here we go, 15 “Not-So-Bold” predictions for the 2022 Season!
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We have lots of content to help you prepare for your draft.
3-Part Draft Tips and Checklist Series: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-pigskin-papers-draft-tips ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-pigskin-papers-draft-day-checklist ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-2022-5-powerful-drafting-concepts
Players to Target and Avoid: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-green-light-players-im-targeting ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-red-light-players-im-avoiding-at-adp
Rankings (Updating Soon): https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-wr-and-te-redraft-rankings ; https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/fantasy-football-22-qb-and-rb-redraft-rankings
More: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1
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15 PREDICTIONS (all Average Draft Positions (ADP) listed are as of 8-31, in Half PPR):
(1) Deebo Samuel (ADP: WR6) will not finish the season as a top 10 WR. The 49ers are a good team. They’ve made it to 2 Conference Championship games and 1 Super Bowl in the last 3 years. But I’ve got a lot of questions about how productive the main fantasy assets in this offense will be with Trey Lance at the helm. Lance figures to eat into everyone else’s rushing stats, with less efficient passing. Deebo finished 2021 as the WR2, trailing only Cooper Kupp, and he led the league with an 18.2 YPC average. I don’t see him coming close to the 1,400 receiving yards, 59 carries, and 8 rushing TDs he amassed last year. Regression alert!
The Kyle Pitts Explosion is Coming
(2) Kyle Pitts (ADP: WR3) will lead all Tight Ends in targets, catches, and yards. I think Pitts can challenge Kelce and Andrews for the TE1 crown this year, if he can bring up his TD total. Last season, these were his rankings among TEs: 5th in targets, T7 in catches, 3rd in yards, and 1st in YPC (15+). You just don’t see numbers like that from a rookie TE. He and Mike Ditka are the only TEs in history to amass more than 1,000 receiving yards as rookies. He’s the clear #1 receiving option on a bad team that'll be playing catch-up and he’s going to be peppered with targets. He’s also really good. The only limiting factor is going to be his QB play.
(3) Almost every front-line fantasy contributor on the Raiders and Bucs (Brady, Fournette, Evans, Godwin, Carr, Jacobs, Adams, Renfrow, and Waller) is going to underperform his current ADP. The Raiders and Bucs both have high hopes for this season - and with good reason. Both are loaded with talent on offense. Unfortunately, one other thing these 2 teams have in common is major problems on the offensive line. These could end up being 2 of the 5 worst lines in the league. I think some of the underperformance will be very slight, and I’m not recommending that you avoid players on either team. Both squads will run up a lot of yards and score plenty of points. But a lot of these players are being drafted very high - so temper expectations just a bit. If Brady and Carr don’t have time to throw, these offenses just won’t be as electric as we’re expecting.
(4) Nobody on the Seahawks is going to finish inside the top 20 fantasy point scorers at his position - maybe not even top 25. This team is going to be bad, and it’s going to end the season near the bottom in most offensive categories. It was already the slowest offense in the league, but Russell Wilson’s efficient play helped make up for some of that. I’m avoiding this team like the plague (the old plague - the one from the 1300s).
(5) Michael Pittman (ADP: WR13) is going to finish the seasons as a top 10 WR in all formats. Book it.
(6) Christian Kirk (ADP: WR39) is going to have more than 140 targets and is going to finish the season as a top 25 WR in all PPR formats.
(7) Gabriel Davis (ADP: WR22) will finish the season in the top 10 in receiving TDs.
(8) Three RBs who play in the NFC North (D. Cook, ADP: RB6, D. Swift RB8, and A. Jones RB14) are going to finish the season as top 10RBs in all PPR formats. Cook will be in the top 3.
(9) Darrell Henderson (ADP: RB42 ) will score more fantasy points than Cam Akers (RB19).
(10) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP: RB27) will finish as a top 20 RB in all formats.
Cousins: Ready to Crash the Top 10
(11) Kirk Cousins (ADP: QB15) will finish as a top 10 QB.
(12) Matt Ryan (ADP: QB21) will finish as a top 15 QB.
(13) Jaylen Waddle (ADP: WR 16) will catch over 100 passes for the second straight year. Yes, even with Tyreek Hill there. Yes, even with Mike McDaniel calling the plays.
Trevor will be Slingin’ It in ‘22
(14) Trevor Lawrence (ADP: QB18) will finish in the top 2 in the NFL in pass attempts (last year he was 7th, with 602).
(15) Jason Sanders (ADP: PK20) will obliterate his ADP and finish inside the top 5 in PK scoring.
Good luck with your drafts!
DH
