Life in the Fast Lane - Value Plays We Like
(Posted August 26, 2021)
The season is fast approaching, folks. Yesterday, the Pigskin Papers provided a short list of potholes in the road - players we recommend avoiding at their current ADP, so that your car can keep flying down Fantasy Road. Today we will do the opposite. Remember, we are purely talking about value here - searching for players who appeal at the likely draft price you’ll have to fork over to land them. With the potholes out of the way, these are the “fast lane” players we recommend grabbing at what we think are attractive values at current ADP. Remember, the focus here is on season-long redraft leagues.
QB - The consensus top 11 QBs all look to be fairly priced, on the whole, and after the first four (Mahomes, Murray, Allen and Jackson), who I think are a tier unto themselves due to their astronomical ceilings, it becomes more about personal preference. In a 1 QB league with 10 or 12 teams, there is plenty of high-end quality to go around. After that group, I like Baker Mayfield to be a borderline top 10 QB this year, making his ADP of QB16 pretty attractive. And Jalen Hurts at QB12 is very intriguing because we have seen what a QB who can really run, and run for TDs, can do in terms of fantasy production. In just 4 starts last year, plus occasional mop-up duty, he ran for an eye-popping 354 yards and 3 TDs. I don’t expect Hurts to crack the top 5 but he certainly has top 10 upside. The real values at QB this year are a bunch of the players being drafted as backups, but who could end up having real value. Justin Fields (QB18), Tua (QB22) and Daniel Jones (basically free, at QB31, so you don’t need to draft him) all jump out to me in this regard. Cam Newton at QB26 is also a potential big value if he can hang onto the job for most of the season, given his rushing prowess (12 rushing TDs last season to go along with almost 600 yards - he can still run).
RB - I like a bunch of guys going in the teens, and would be very happy getting at least one and possibly 2 of these guys if I’m picking at or near the 1-2 turn. Najee Harris was the first RB taken in the NFL draft, scored 57 total TDs in college, and is going to a team/coach that has a long history of actually having a workhorse back. From Le’Veon Bell, to D’Angelo Williams whenever Bell was hurt, to James Connor when Bell sat out, the pattern of 20+ touches per game for the lead RB is well established. The ADP of 11 looks high but actually seems low. A year from now Harris could easily be in the “top 5 picks” conversation. Austin Ekeler (RB12) is also attractive and especially in full PPR- I’m high on the Chargers offense across the board and I expect him to see an uptick in targets under the new regime there. If you don’t believe in CEH (RB14) after last season, check out the jump that LeSean McCoy made in his second year playing for Andy Reid, and just consider how good the Chiefs offense figures to be. Chris Carson at an ADP of RB17 is also a good value - we all keep waiting for Rashaad Penny and if it hasn’t happened by now it is probably not happening - Carson (career 4.6 YPC) figures to be a productive workhorse in a good offense that scores. In the world of RB 2s, give me both James Robinson at RB23 and Mike Davis at RB26. Both figure to see a lot of work in the running and passing game for offenes that should be decently productive, and have a clear path to lots of touches. Further down, Trey Sermon at RB37 is pretty cheap for a guy who could end up leading the backfield in a Mike Shanahan offense, but you will need to be patient. I’m leery of any and all Lions this season, but we know Dan Campbell wants to break knees and jam the ball down the defense’s throat, and with D’Andre Swift currently sidelined with a groin issue that could easily linger, Jamaal Williams at an ADP of RB43 is worth a later round pick. And if you’re throwing a dart late, Rhamondre Stephenson at RB63 is intriguing.
WR - Calvin Ridley at an ADP of WR6? I have him only behind Adams and Hill this season and won’t be surprised if he leads the league in both catches and yards this year, like Diggs did last season. And while an ADP of 12 may seem high for CeeDee Lamb, given that Amari Cooper is the de facto #1 WR in Dallas, Lamb is going to see more work out of the slot, is extremely hard to cover, and is an easy choice for a potential monster breakout - he is that good. I also like Robert Woods at WR18 - not the sexiest pick but over the last three seasons, his target (130-139-129) and catch (86-90-90) numbers have been remarkably consistent, and now he upgrades to Matt Stafford. A few midrange guys I like, at ADP: Tee Higgins (30), Robby Anderson (36) and Antonio Brown (39), and a round or two later, Mike WIlliams (45), Jaylen Waddle (46) and Corey Davis (47). I think all six of these guys have good upside this season and a relatively safe floor for what you’re paying. Further down, three explosive, big-play second year players who I like for a bit of a breakout are Darnell Mooney (55), Marquez Callaway (58) and Gabriel Davis (71). The price on these receivers is low for what they could return, but know that their production will likely be a bit episodic.
TE - This position group is tough, and I don’t see a ton of value above ADP up and down the board. I think fantasy owners will struggle to find consistent scoring at this position beyond the top few players - and that is why Travis Kelce is going in the first round in many drafts, and Waller and Kittle near the 2-3 turn. I don’t mind Logan Thomas at his ADP of TE7 - not a major value but he has a good chance to slightly outperform that ADP. Tyler Higbee at TE13 is a screaming value, given the QB upgrade and the production we saw from him when Gerald Everett was out of the lineup, and Everett is now a Seahawk. Speaking of which, Everett is ranked as the TE 26, and Russell Wilson has made guys like Jacob Hollister fantasy relevant, so you could do worse than Everett as a late round flyer at TE.
Good luck with your drafts, and be sure to check out the other content at www.thepigskinpapers.com.
