Avoiding Potholes - Players Who Scare Us This Season
(Posted August 25, 2021)
This is our “Danger Will Robinson” list of players for 2021. We won’t call this a “do not draft” list, or a “busts” list. We are focused on draft strategy and value, and this is really about using your draft capital wisely. So think of it as a compilation of players who we don’t like (at all) at current ADP. Some could offer value at a cheaper price, and some are currently sliding towards a more reasonable ADP - so keep an eye out for that. Here we go!
QB - Joe Burrow. He is going to be a fantasy star one day. But for this season, I just don’t trust that he will be fully confident moving around and under duress. Yes, there will be some big games and the team should be trailing a lot which will help. But at an ADP of QB12/13, you can do better. I think his season will get better as it progresses. I’m also a bit leery of Russell Wilson at his ADP of QB6, and I like a few QBs better who are right behind him in the rankings (Herbert, Rodgers and Brady), but he always seems to get his numbers so I have less conviction.
RB - All of the backs on Baltimore, Arizona, Buffalo, New England and Philadelphia. We covered this in Part IV of our drafting tips series - for all of these backs, the presence of a QB who vultures TDs and gets a lot of rushing yards caps the upside of the running backs. For that same reason, I am putting Alvin Kamara (at the very high price of RB4) on the list, because even if Jameis starts, Taysom Hill is going to be involved inside the red zone, and Kamara is very TD-dependent for his scoring. And by the same token, I’m a bit leery of the backs on Chicago and SF, who will lose some luster once the rookie QBs take over. Jonathan Taylor. I love the talent, but not the likely backfield split, and his price (RB8) is a very high one.
WR - Kenny Golloday at WR26 is too rich for me. I don’t trust his health (he already has a hamstring issue), or his QB, and there are a lot of other options in this offense. I can’t imagine him performing anywhere close to his 2019 level (around 1,100 yards and 11 TDs). Ja'Marr Chase (WR 24) didn’t play football last year, reports out of camp haven’t been good, and while we all saw what his college teammate Justin Jefferson did in his rookie year, that kind of production for a rookie WR is an anomaly. It’s more common to see highly drafted rookies have the kind of up-and-down year that Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs had last year. I’m also a contrarian on the Jeudy breakout this season, and I do not expect him to lead his team in any of the big receiving stats (targets, yards, catches or TDs). There are too many mouths to feed in Denver, their defense is good and will keep them out of shootouts, and the QB play is likely going to be up and down. And I love Mike Evans, but at an ADP of WR10 I can’t get behind it - there are too many other options and Brady loves to spread it around - Evans will get his TDs (although I expect a bit of regression there) but it will be hard for him to put up his usual catch and yardage numbers.
TE - George Kittle. Did you know that he has never had more than 5 TDs in a season? Well, he hasn’t, and that plus his injury history, the presence of two ascending young receivers, and the potential of a rookie QB who basically didn’t play football last year makes his ADP of TE3 too high for me. Rob Gronkowski at TE 8. I expect him to be used somewhat sparingly until the Bucs really need him, meaning his production will be sporadic. And again, there are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense. And unless Zach Ertz gets traded, I cannot get behind Dallas Goedart at TE9, and especially in an offense that will at times struggle to throw the ball.
PK - Just kidding. Take any decent kicker, hope for the best, and pick up a better one later if you need to.
