Fantasy Football ‘23: RED LIGHT - Players I’m Avoiding

Jacobs is a Beast - But He Scares Me This Season

(Published 8-17-23)

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Welcome back, readers. This article is Part 2 of my favorite series to write each summer. In case you missed Part 1, here it is: Green Light: Players I'm Targeting.

Today, I’m giving you my Red Light Players to Avoid. I hope you’ll find both pieces helpful as you do your draft prep.

The players discussed below shouldn’t be confused with a “busts” list. I like a number of these players, and some of them will undoubtedly put up good seasons. What I don’t like is the price you’ll have to pay to get them, and since I’m not willing to pay those prices, I’m probably not going to have much exposure to any of them on my 2023 teams.

You’ll notice that my rankings on the players listed in this column are lower than the market, as reflected by Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). That’s the idea. Also, I’m mainly focusing on players going in the first 8-9 rounds, or roughly the top 100 overall. This column is about trying to help you avoid potential landmines that will cost you valuable draft capital. I have a lot of RBs on the list. Well, I think a lot of RBs, and RB2s in particular, are in the “dead zone” and are being overdrafted.

I prefer ECR to Average Draft Position (ADP) because I think it’s a better reflection of what you’re likely to find in an actual draft. ADPs are often site-specific and can vary a lot, plus they sometimes include different types of leagues, such as best ball. I’m using ECRs that are suited to basic redraft fantasy leagues. ECRs listed for each player are current as of 8-17-23, and ECRs and 2022 rankings and points shown reflect Half PPR scoring.

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Check out my positional breakdowns with rankings and tiers (all will be updated later in the preseason), and my overall top 100:

Quarterback Rankings; Running Back Rankings; WR Rankings; TE Rankings; Top 100.

PLAYERS TO AVOID AT ECR

Watson has Moved into the Top 10 QBs - Too Expensive for Me

QB

Deshaun Watson (ECR: QB9, 85 Overall, The Pigskin Papers Ranking (TPPR): QB14, Outside Top 100 Overall)

I know a lot of people are high on a Watson comeback this year, and I also know that fading him carries risk. I’m lower on him than most. Watson does have 3 top 5 QB seasons on his resume, and he’s in what should be a good offense, with a great O-line and solid weapons. On the flip side, Watson was bad when he came back last year, and comparable players run pretty deep. I’d rather not use a pick on him near the 7/8 turn when I can wait a round or 2 to get one of Dak, Tua, Danny Dimes, Cousins, or Geno. There’s a drop-off in my view after Trevor Lawrence (my QB8), and If I miss on the top 8, I’m waiting past where Watson is being drafted.

Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud

I won’t bother with the ECRs or my rankings on these players. They’re in the 20s. If you’re thinking of taking one of them as your QB2 in a Superflex, I’d think twice. I lump these 2 together because the situations and outlooks are similar. They were the top 2 picks in the NFL draft, and both will be thrown into the fire in offenses with sub-par weapons. Expect some struggles and plenty of mistakes. Rookie QBs rarely hit big, and unlike Anthony Richardson, neither of these QBs comes with the kind of rushing floor that can let you get away with mediocre passing totals.

Kamara - Too Many Red Flags for Me

RB

Josh Jacobs (ECR: RB9, 20 Overall; TPPR: RB9, 22 Overall)

I’m only slightly behind consensus on Jacobs, but right now, I’m having trouble pushing the button to select him. Do I think he’s really good? Yes. Do I think he has no leverage and will show up and play by week 1? Yes, although I don’t think he’ll be happy about it. Still, I just don’t like the vibes that are coming off the entire Raiders team right now, with Jacobs being a big part of what’s scaring me off. Jacobs set career highs in nearly everything last season, including touches where he led the entire NFL, and I think he’ll be very hard-pressed to come close to those numbers in 2023. I think the downgrade from Carr to Jimmy G is bigger than people think, and I also think confidence in Josh McDaniels is low. I’m staying away. I don’t like taking huge risks in the first 2 rounds, so I’ll forgo the undeniable talent and let someone else deal with what could be a big headache. While we’re here, I’ll also pass on Jonathan Taylor at current ECR, for many of the same reasons.

Breece Hall (ECR: RB16, 39 Overall, TPPR: RB19, 43 Overall)

Speaking of talent, Hall oozes it. He was well on his way to being the Offensive ROY last year before he tore an ACL. We know about the standard pattern for RBs (other than Adrian Peterson) in the first year back from an ACL repair, and when you throw in the Dalvin Cook signing, there is plenty of reason to be cautious about using a pick near the 3/4 turn on Hall. Yes, his price has dropped to where many may find it attractive, and he could end up dominating touches after the first month or so of the season. But when you look at the money the Jets gave Cook, I think it’s safe to assume that he’ll have a pretty decent role and especially early in the season. This is another case where I’ll forgo the upside and let someone else take the risk.

Kenneth Walker (ECR: RB17, 42 Overall, TPPR: RB17, 42 Overall)

I’m right with consensus on Walker, but I’m having trouble smashing the button. Walker flashed big play upside in his rookie year, but also was among the league leaders in carries that went for negative or zero yards. He also caught just 27 passes. Enter another second round pick, Zach Charbonnet, and there’s definitely concern of a true committee, with Walker losing touches on passing downs and in short-yardage situations. I think Walker will do well this season, and he’s going to give you some big plays, but I don’t love spending a 4th round pick on him.

Alvin Kamara (ECR: RB25, 68 Overall, TPPR: RB29, 77 Overall)

I’m almost a full round lower than consensus on Kamara. Maybe it’s because he burned me so badly last year, which was easily the worst season of his career. The explosive all-purpose back had averaged close to a TD per game played through 202, but put up a grand total of just 4 last year. He also didn’t break a single carry of 30+ yards. The TD number may not go up by much this year. The team brought in Jamaal Williams, who led all RBs in rushing TDs last season, professional vulture Taysom Hill is still around, they added Kendre Miller in the draft, and Kamara will start the season with a 3 game suspension. Yes, he’ll catch plenty of passes, so maybe I’d be more interested in Full PPR, but I’m not willing to overpay for name value, with this many question marks staring me in the face.

D’Andre Swift (ECR: RB30, 79 Overall, TPPR: RB32, 82 Overall)

Rashaad Penny made my players to target list, and Swift finds himself in this column. A big reason for that is that you can get Penny a full 2 rounds after Swift, whereas I have them ranked similarly. Swift is a lot cheaper this year than in his other NFL seasons, but I’m still not overly interested. With 3 viable RBs on the roster, plus a QB who scored double digit rushing TDs last year, fantasy owners should be skeptical about drafting any RB on this team inside the first 6 or 7 rounds. I don’t doubt the talent, but Swift doesn’t figure to get that much base work over the other 2 backs, and he’s had more than his share of injuries in his 3 seasons. Where Swift really excels is in the passing game, and the Eagles targeted their RBs less than every other team last year. Despite missing a few games each season, Swift garnered 70+ targets in back-to-back years in Detroit and that’s unlikely to happen in the Philadelphia offense. For all of these reasons, it’s hard to see how Swift is a good value at his ECR. 

J.K. Dobbins (ECR: RB20, 51 Overall, TPPR: RB23, 54 Overall)

Like Swift, Dobbins has plenty of talent but enters his fourth season having yet to live up to expectations. Dobbins suffered a devastating knee injury before the 2021 season that continued to hamper him in 2022. He’s going to get yards when he carries the ball - that’s a given. His career average is 5.9 ypc, in what has been a top rushing attack ever since Lamar took over. So why am I fading Dobbins? There are a few reasons. For one, I don’t expect an RB1 workload, as he continues to work his way back to full strength. Also, almost all of his touches will come via carries - he only has 25 career receptions in 23 games. He’s going to give you a lot of “13 for 85” games, so you’re basically hoping for a big spike in TDs for him to return value. He did score 9 rushing TDs as a rookie, so you can make a case, but again, I don’t think he’ll get all of the high-value rushing attempts. There are other backs going in his range that profile for more complete usage and I prefer them at cost.

Can Calvin Ridley Return to Greatness, in Jacksonville?

WR

Tee Higgins (ECR: WR14, 28 overall, TPPR: WR16, 36 overall)

I really like Higgins as a player, but I’m lower than consensus on him, meaning I won’t get much of him this season. Higgins is reliable and consistent, and had a pretty decent season in 2022. He also has a great QB who throws a lot, which is also a plus. He’s a safe pick. However, the upside just isn’t there at his price. Even with Ja’Marr Chase missing 5 games in 2022, he only finished as the WR17. I’m not overly worried about Burrow’s calf injury, but I am worried about the volume Higgins will get. I think this is a case of a name, and a perceived situation on a great offense, that’s a little better than the expected fantasy performance. Higgins saw a decline in some key metrics last season (target share and yards per route run), and has consistently averaged about 7 targets per game through 3 seasons. At his current price, you’re drafting him at or close to his ceiling. He has yet to crack 110 targets , 75 catches or 7 TDs in a season, and I want more upside than that at the 2/3 turn.

Calvin Ridley (ECR: WR18, 38 Overall, TPPR: WR19, 45 Overall)

Calvin Ridley is a hot name this summer, as he’s getting a fresh start in Jacksonville with one the league’s rising stars in QB Trevor Lawrence. Early reports are good. We saw what Ridley is capable of early in his career, before it got derailed for most of the past 2 seasons. And that’s some of the risk with Ridley - we haven’t seen him on the field in almost 2 years, and are taking it on faith that his personal problems are in the past. That aside, Ridley is being taken around the 3/4 turn and while that could end up being a good value, it’s a bit rich for me. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense and I’m not sure he’ll get enough volume to put up the kind of WR1 numbers he produced in Atlanta in 2020. I think Christian Kirk (who made my Players to Target column) could end up leading the team in targets and is a better value, a few rounds later.

Deebo Samuel (ECR: WR19, 40 Overall, TPPR: WR20, 44 Overall)

Deebo makes the column for the second season in a row, and last year, it was the right call. He was coming off a monster 2021 that vaulted his draft stock into the second round. He ended the year outside the top 20 WRs on a ppg basis, and was actually slightly behind teammate Brandon Aiyuk. The price is a bit more reasonable this year, but it’s still too high for me and I’m passing on him early in Round 3. Deebo is a YAC monster, and a dangerous weapon in the run game, but my guess is that when all is said and done, his 2021 season will be an outlier. He only had 5 deep targets,12 red zone looks, and 42 carries last year, and I doubt those numbers go up much this season. The 49ers have 4 big playmakers and I think it’s going to be hard for any of Deebo, Aiyuk, or Kittle to really stand out, barring big injuries to one or more of the others. All 3 are ranked close to their ceiling and since Deebo is the most expensive of the 3, he’s the one who interests me the least. Let someone else pay up for what he did 2 years ago.

DJ Moore (ECR: WR20, 44 Overall, TPPR WR 23, 55 Overall), and Terry McLauren (ECR: WR22, 48 Overall, TPPR: WR24, 56 Overall)

I’m listing these 2 players together because the situations are similar. Both are highly talented WRs who’ve been a bit disappointing recently, mostly because they’ve been plagued by being in bad offenses with sub-par QB play. While both situations should improve this year, it probably won’t be enough to make them good values at current cost. The Bears only attempted 22 passes per game last year, and figure to be very run-heavy again, given the skillset of their QB. Even if Moore gets something close to his 27% target share from a year ago, which is no guarantee, that’s probably only going to translate to 6 or 7 targets per game in this offense. As for McLauren, Josh Dotson is a rising star and a great contented catch guy, and could straight-up surpass Scary Terry as the Commanders’ top fantasy WR, and like the Bears, this could be a low-volume passing offense that allows its QB to make a lot of plays with his legs. These guys both burned fantasy players last year and I’m sacred of both of them at their current 4th round price.

Another Pass Sails Behind Kyle Pitts

TE

Mark Andrews (ECR: TE2, 30 Overall, TPPR: TE3, 31 Overall)

This one is tough, and is probably the call in this column with the least amount of conviction. Andrews has not only been great (when healthy) over the past few seasons, he’s also been the team’s clear #1 receiving and red zone target. I think that might change this year. The team changed OCs, is installing a new offense, and finally appears to have a talented top-3 at the WR position. Andrews has excelled in part because Lamar has had nobody else to throw to. He’ll cost you an early third round pick and if I’m not getting Kelce, I’d rather wait until at least Round 4, and probably a few rounds later than that, to grab my TE1.

Kyle Pitts (ECR: TE6, 74 Overall; TPPR: TE7, 76 Overall)

Remember how I told you how Kamara burned me last year? He wasn’t alone. I’m just a bit behind consensus on Pitts, but it’s hard for me to hit the “draft” button. Potential doesn’t equal fantasy production. Unless and until the Falcons show me that they want to throw the ball, and can do so with some success, I’m not going to be drafting much of Pitts. I don’t doubt the talent, but he’s coming off a big injury and will be catching passes from an unproven second year QB in his first year as a starter. Arthur Smith’s team also figures to again be among the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses. I was at least a year early on Pitts in 2022, so now I’m fine being a year late.

Team

Arizona Cardinals

Every now and then, a team looks like it might be such a dumpster fire on offense that I want to avoid the whole lot. Think 2021 Jets. This year, the Cardinals qualify. Will I take James Conner if he falls well past his ECR? Yes, as a value-volume play. Could Hollywood Brown be a steal if Kyler comes back early? For sure. And if Kyler makes it well into the double-digit rounds, he’s worth a flyer given the rushing upside, even with the uncertainty surrounding if and when he’ll play. But overall, this is an offense I’m fading across the board. Scanning the box score of a team that scored 10 points to see if your guy got the lone TD isn’t that fun.

That’s it for today - good luck in your drafts!

DH

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