Fantasy Football ‘23: GREEN LIGHT - Players I’m Targeting
Justin Herbert Eyes a Big Bounceback
(Published 8-15-23)
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It’s hard to believe we’re halfway through August. The big wave of fantasy drafts in redraft leagues is rapidly approaching, so crunch time is here. Two of my favorite columns to write each season are this one, and its sister column, Red Light: Players to Avoid: Red Light: Palyers To Avoid . I hope you’ll find them helpful as you do your draft prep.
Today, I’m giving you the “Green Light” players that I’m targeting. I’m looking to take these guys at or around their current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) if possible, or before if necessary. You’ll notice that my rankings on every player listed in this column are higher than the market. That’s the idea. This isn’t a breakouts or sleepers column, but rather a list of players who I think offer solid value at current pricing, and are excellent building blocks for a strong team. I’m mainly focusing on players going after the first 25 picks, but still inside the first 125 picks (roughly, rounds 3-10 of a 12 team draft), other than at QB where I’ll go a little deeper because of the prevalence of Superflex leagues. After that, you’re getting deeper into your bench, and towards sleeper and dart throw territory. Again, I’m also mostly avoiding the very obvious names at or near the top of each position.
I prefer ECR to Average Draft Position (ADP) because I think it’s a better reflection of what you’re likely to find in an actual draft. ADPs are often site-specific and can vary a lot, plus they sometimes include different types of leagues, such as best ball. I’m using ECRs that are suited to basic redraft fantasy leagues. ECRs listed for each player are current as of 8-15-23, and ECRs and 2022 rankings and points shown reflect Half PPR scoring.
Check out my positional breakdowns with rankings and tiers (all will be updated later in the preseason), and my overall top 100:
Also, we’ll continue to have plenty of draft content throughout August, including draft strategy, players to target and avoid, bold predictions, and more.
PLAYERS TO TARGET AT ECR
The Biggest Surprise of 2022 is Back for More
QB
Justin Herbert (ECR: QB7, The Pigskin Papers Ranking (TPPR): QB5): It’s easy to forget that Herbert finished as the QB2 just 2 years ago. Last year, things went sideways for the Chargers’ offense and he dropped to QB11, but he was playing without his starting left tackle, and his top 2 WRs both missed significant time. The problems didn’t end there. He also played through broken rib cartilage from a crushing tackle in Week 2, and it showed as he struggled on deep throws, which is his calling card. Herbert just got paid like an elite QB and I like him to bounce back strong this season. Everyone is back healthy (at least for now), new OC Kellen Moore is a nice upgrade, and the Chargers took another big target for Herbert when they added Quentin Johnston from TCU in the first round. Breaking into the top 3 or 4 QBs won’t be easy given how strong they are, but that’s OK. Herbert can return to being an elite producer this year without finishing in the top 3, and his current price is attractive for that.
Geno Smith (ECR: QB14, TPPR: QB12): Was last year a fluke, or is Geno’s second act for real? I guess we’re about to find out, but I’ll bet on the latter. Smith led the NFL in completion percentage last year en route to a top 10 fantasy finish that nobody saw coming. I think he can get there again. The O-line should be a little better, he’s got a full year under his belt as the starter, and the team added another high-end weapon by drafting JSN in the top 15 picks, plus they shored up the backfield by drafting RB Zach Charbonnet. This offense could be sneaky good, with Smith benefitting. If you’re going to wait on QB, I like him at his current price.
Brock Purdy (ECR: QB22 , TPRR: QB21): Speaking of “was last year a fluke”, let me present Brock Purdy, who went undefeated in his regular season starts, led the NFL in QB rating, and was insanely efficient, as he also led the NFL with a 6.9% TD percentage. If you’re waiting on your second QB in a Superflex, or don’t want to take your backup in a 1 QB league until the end, consider Purdy. Yes, there’s a bit of risk with Sam Darnold and Trey Lance on the roster, but his elbow appears to be fine, the team clearly wants him to start, and he proved last year that he can run this offense. The game scripts probably won’t be great, so the ceiling isn’t very high. The 49ers aren’t going to get into many shootouts or play a lot of catch-up. What you’re banking on with Purdy is the Shanahan scheme, and the best skill-position group in the league. Both of those factors should enable him to be highly efficient once again.
Don’t be Surprised if This Man is the Overall RB1 in 2023
RB
Nick Chubb (ECR: RB4, TPRR: RB3): Chubb was more of a value earlier this preseason, and now the hype has pushed him all the way up to RB4. I’m still in on him at that price. He’s the best pure runner in the league, runs behind a top-3 OL in a balanced offense, and with Kareem Hunt gone, should see an uptick in passing game usage and that’s all that was missing. Enough said. I’m good with Chubb late in Round 1. If he finishes this season as the overall RB1, I won’t be at all surprised.
Derrick Henry (ECR: RB7, TPRR: RB5): I said I would mostly avoid the obvious names and I’ve just given you two of them. There’s a reason. I’m targeting both Chubb and Henry because at a position where the top picks so often disappoint, I think they’re among the safest of the RBs that go in the first 25 picks. Henry also makes my list because year after year, he outperforms his ADP/ECR, and even though he’s 29, I don’t see that changing in 2023. When the Titans added D. Hopkins, they made it clear that they’re trying to compete for the playoffs this year, meaning Tannehill should be under center all season, assuming he’s healthy, and Henry should continue to anchor the offense. Henry finished as the RB3 last year on a PPG basis, had a career high in catches and receiving yards, and should again see massive volume. He’s going in the middle to late second round in a lot of drafts and I think that’s a great value.
Miles Sanders (ECR: RB 19, TPPR: RB17): I’m in-line with consensus on Sanders, now that his ECR has ticked up. I think he’s a solid pick in the 4th round, and sometimes you can get him in the 5th. He’s a back who can do it all, and he should have a lot less competition for carries, catches, and goal line opportunities in Carolina than he had last season in Philadelphia. My one concern is that the offense could be terrible, but they do have a good O-line and again, it’s about volume and opportunity and Sanders should see plenty.
Khalil Herbert (ECR: RB35, TPPR: RB31): Herbert shined when given the lead-back opportunity for a few weeks last year. He actually led the NFL in yards per carry, at 5.7. He has big-play ability and showcased it with a long TD reception in the first preseason game. The question here is volume, as the Bears brought in D’Onta Foreman and added Roschon Johnson in the draft. Herbert has the advantage of not being new to the team, and my guess is that he’ll carve out the largest role, on what should be a run-heavy offense once again. I think he’s a great value at his current price (9th or 10th round).
Rashaad Penny (ECR: RB36, TPPR: RB30): Here’s another RB with upside that you can get fairly late. The RB situation in Philadelphia is hard to gauge right now, as the Eagles said goodbye to the aforementioned Sanders, and brought in both Penny and D’Andre Swift, while keeping Kenny Gainwell. Throw in that Jalen Hurts had double-digit TDs on the ground last year and you might think this is a backfield to avoid entirely, but this is a very high-scoring offense that likes to run the ball behind its terrific O-line, and there is production to be had. Penny has had more injuries than I can list, but Swift has also been hurt a lot. Penny profiles more as the early down back in any case, and he could do some damage in that role. He was the #1 back in fantasy over the final 7 weeks of the 2021 season and there’s a real possibility that he’ll return excellent value in this offense, if he can stay healthy. The price is right for taking a gamble on the upside case.
Kirk Makes This Column Once Again
WR
Chris Olave (ECR: WR13, TPPR: WR12): Olave is another player who has been on the rise. I’m still in on him, although I liked it better when you could get him in the late 3rd rather than the early 3rd. His rookie season was excellent and especially when you consider the instability at the QB position. Some of the metrics that really stand out: Olave was top 10 in the NFL last season in target share (25%), total air yards, and target rate per route run. Even if Michael Thomas can stay on the field this year, Olave should again see lots of volume and should improve on his excellent rookie numbers and especially TDs (he only had 4). Derek Carr is an upgrade that should benefit Olave. If you miss on the top 10 WRs, Olave can still be your WR1.
Christian Kirk (ECR: WR30, TPPR: WR21): I’m way ahead of consensus on Kirk, who finished 2022 as the WR11, and as a top 20 WR on a PPG basis. Kirk made this column last year, and I’ll take the W on that one. I like him to again beat his ECR this year. Yes, I know they brought in Calvin Ridley, but Kirk often works (and wins) out of the slot and should again be a big focus of the passing game. He’s clearly developed a great rapport with Trevor Lawrence, who should only get better in his third year. Kirk may not get quite as many targets as he did last year, but his price is still pretty attractive, and I think he can repeat last year’s numbers.
Tyler Lockett (ECR: WR27, TPPR: WR22): Tyler Lockett has finished in the top 15 WRs for 5 straight seasons. Yes, you read that right. He’s another player - and there aren’t many of them - who is perennially underrated in fantasy and beats his ADP/ECR almost every single season. The naysayers will say that they drafted JSN in the first round, D.K. Metcalf is the clear #1, and Lockett is now 30. But none of that should make you shy away from Lockett and especially at what is a bargain price in the 6th round. This will be a good passing offense, with plenty of targets to go around. Nobody will say anything when you draft Lockett - he’s a boring player who helps people win championships.
Diontae Johnson (ECR: WR31, TPPR: WR28): Johnson continues to be a target monster (140+ targets in 3 straight seasons), and positive-TD regression is coming! Kenny Pickett should be better in year 2, and Johnson continues to be able to get open with regularity. Even modest TD regression should put Johnson firmly in WR2 territory, and you can get him for cheaper than that. Johnson is a screaming buy this year.
Gabe Davis (ECR: WR39, TPPR: WR35): GabeDave 2023 is the epitome of the post-hype sleeper. He made this column last year and I’ll take the L on that one. His season wasn't terrible, but it was very boom or bust and if you draft Gabe, be prepared for more of that. The difference is that he’s about 3 rounds cheaper than he was last year. The Bills did add TE Dalton Kincaid, but they didn’t add much at WR and Gabe (who led the team in snaps and routes run last year) should again be out there all the time, in a high volume passing offense. I like him as a WR3/4 type for your roster. He’ll have some flex appeal.
Can LaPorta break the Rookie TE Mold?
TE
I’m generally good with the top 10 TEs as they’re ranked. I’ve got Darren Waller a slot or two above ECR and I like his value best out of the group of 4-5 TEs that fall after Travis Kelce, who I think is worthy of a pick in the middle of the 1st round. If you want to wait on the position, here are some guys who you can get a little later that should return good value at ECR.
Tyler Higbee (ECR: TE14, TPPR: TE11): Higbee isn’t exciting, but he’s put up pretty decent numbers for several years running. Last season he finished as the TE9, which was his second top 10 finish in the last 4 years, and that was with Matt Stafford missing half of the season. The team doesn't have a lot of reliable receiving options after Cooper Kupp, and Higbee has proven to be a favorite target. He should have a decent floor, and I like him to finish the year as a low-end TE1.
Gerald Everett (ECR: TE17, TPPR: TE15): Everett was decent last season in his first year with the Chargers. Like many mid-level TEs, his good games were hard to predict. As you know from the QB section, I like this passing offense to bounce back this season and that should include Everett.
Sam LaPorta (ECR: TE20, TPPR: TE18): Rookie TEs rarely put up big seasons. The last rookie TE to finish in the top 5 was Evan Engram, way back in 2017. That said, the 2023 rookie TE class is strong and several of them could surprise. Of the rookies, I like LaPorta best, at current ECR. He’s the latest in a long line of TEs from the Kirk Ferentz Iowa program to make it to the NFL. ARSB and the running backs should eat up their fair share of targets, but after that, Jared Goff will still need to spread the ball and throwing to the TE has always been a big part of his game. LaPorta is also a good blocker which should help to keep him on the field.
I couldn’t write blurbs on every player I’m targeting at ECR. Here are some other players who are mid-range options, and whose value I like this season (current ECRs in parenthesis): QB: A. Rodgers (QB15), J. Goff (QB17), R. Tannehill (QB26), RB: R. White (RB24), I. Pacheco (RB29), A. Gibson (RB33), S. Perine (RB37), D. Harris (RB40), T. Bigsby (RB51), WR: A. Cooper (WR16), D. Hopkins (WR21), M. Williams (WR29), J. Dotson (WR35), B. Cooks (WR41), TE: H. Henry (TE22).
DH
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