Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving! The Major Feasting Starts Thursday Afternoon.
(Published November 22, 2023, updated for weather and injury news, Sunday morning, November 26, 2023 )
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Welcome Fantasy Footballers to Week 12, and Happy Thanksgiving! Are you ready for wall-to-wall football for the next 5 days? All 32 NFL teams are in action, and 6 featured games are all alone in their time slots. We’ve got our first-ever Black Friday game, and there are some big college games on Saturday when the NFL takes its one day off this long weekend. It’s a giant buffet of food and football. Fasten your seat belt, and loosen your actual belt.
Due to the holiday, the column is out a bit early this week and is slightly abbreviated. I’m sure some of you are happy to hear that! So pass the cranberry sauce and a fat slice of pumpkin pie, and let’s dig in.
*******WEEK 12 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-12 *******
Week 11 Stats of the Week:
Running bit #1: No team in the AFC North is under .500, and no team in the NFC South is over .500.
Running bit #2: The Steelers have been outgained in every single game they’ve played this season, and they’re 6-4.
When the Steelers fired OC Matt Canada earlier this week, it was the first time they made an in-season coaching change since 1941.
Gus Edwards has scored 9 TDs over his last 5 games.
The Lions’ dramatic comeback win vs. Chicago was the first this season by a team trailing by double digits with under 5 minutes to go (teams were 0-84 in this situation before Week 11).
For the first time since 1969, the Browns and Lions have both won at least 7 of their first 10 games.
The Browns are holding opposing offenses to an average of 238 yards per game. The last team to post a number lower than that for a full season was the 2008 Steelers, who went on to win the Super Bowl.
Tyreek Hill now has 10 games (including playoffs) with at least 10 catches, 140 yards, and 1 TD. That’s tied with Jerry Rice and Andre Johnson for the most such games all-time.
With 1,201 receiving yards through 10 games, Hill is the first player in the SB era to top 1,200 receiving yards in his team’s first 10 games of the season. 3 players did that prior to 1966.
Tua has 19 straight games with a TD pass, the longest current streak in the league.
You’re correct in thinking that nobody loses more close games than the Chargers. 5 of their 6 losses are by a combined total of 14 points.
On Sunday, Keenan Allen became the 5th player in NFL history to reach 50 games with 8+ catches (joining Larry Fitz, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, and Andre Johnson).
DaRon Bland had his 4th pick-6 of the season on Sunday, which ties the NFL record (and Dallas has 7 more games to play this season).
Bland has scored more TDs this season than all of the Jets’ WRs combined.
Brock Purdy had a perfect passer rating this past week (158.3). The only player to do that at a younger age than Purdy (23) was Lamar Jackson (22) in Week 1 of 2019.
CMC has scored 24 TDs in his first 21 regular season games with the 49ers. The only player to score more TDs in his first 21 regular season games with a new team was Randy Moss (25, 2007-08 Patriots).
Justin Fields put up his 4th career game with 100+ rushing yards and 100+ receiving yards. Russell Wilson also has 4 such games, and the only QBs with more are Lamar Jackson (13) and Mike Vick (8).
There have been 11 instances this season of a QB throwing for 250+ yards in a half. 8 different QBs have done it once, and C.J. Stroud has done it 3 times.
The Giants’ offense has scored 4 TDs in the first half this season. All 4 of those have come against the Commanders (2 in each game they’ve played).
*****SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE - 11-26-23*****
Weather Report: Steady rain coupled with cool temperatures is likely for both PIT@CIN and BUF@PHI. CAR@TEN has a slight chance for light rain.
Injury Report: Status as of Sunday morning (Note— players on IR are not listed unless they’re eligible to return):
OUT: J. McKinnon, K. Miller, T. Higgins, N. Brown, M. Hardman, M. Wilson, T. Burks, M. Andrews, D. Goedert, H. Hurst
DOUBTFUL: D. Slayton
EXPECTED BACK: D. Carr, K. Williams, J. Downs, R. Bateman
QUESTIONABLE/EXPECTED TO PLAY: R. White, D. Pierce, M. Brown, O. Beckham, Z. Flowers, J. Guyton, G. Everett
QUESTIONABLE/GTD: D. Foreman, J. Jefferson, C. Kupp, Z. Jones, D. Parker
**********
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: DAL (29.75) DET (27) KC (26.5) PHI (25.5) BAL (25.5)
Bottom 5: NYJ (15) NYG (15.5) CLE (16) CAR (16.5) CIN (16.75)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. CLE 3. SF 4. BUF 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. WAS 2. PHI 3. LAC 4. TB 5. CHI
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. TB 3. NO 4. ATL 5. SF
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. ARI 4. IND 5. NYG
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. CLE 3. DAL 4. BAL 5. GB
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. LAC 3. WAS 4. TB 5. NYG
Top 5 vs TE: 1. CLE 2. TEN 3. SF 4. BAL 5. KC
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. DEN 2. CIN 3. NO 4. LA 5. PHI
Week 12 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, A.J. Brown, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers was a mixed bag last week. Nobody gets them all right, but there were more hits than misses. I did especially well with the WRs, and worse at the other positions. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-11.
Is the Mahomes 2023 Breakout Finally At Hand?
QB:
Elite options - Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and Jackson (The top 4 fantasy QBs on the season); the analysis starts below these 4. Mahomes is certainly an elite QB, but he’s the QB8 on the season, so he returns to the general population for now.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Dak Prescott (vs. WAS). This one is way too easy. Sorry. Dak will roast the Commanders while we’re all stuffing our faces with roast turkey. He’s facing the “defense” that’s allowed the most fantasy points per game (FPPG) and TD passes (24) to opposing QBs. Over the last 4 weeks, Dak is the QB1 in fantasy. He’s my pick to lead all fantasy scorers in week 12.
Other Rides:
Patrick Mahomes (@LV). The reigning MVP and Super Bowl MVP has been a bit disappointing this season from a fantasy standpoint. His pass catchers lead the league in drops, which hasn’t helped and which was on full display Monday night. The Raiders are a team he almost always destroys, so I’m expecting a vintage game from him.
Other Top 15-ranked QBs (for the Week) that I especially like to overperform this week: C.J. Stroud (vs. JAC), B. Purdy (@SEA), J. Fields (@MIN), and J. Dobbs (vs. CHI).
QB Sleepers of the Week: Gardner Minshew (vs. TAM) and Baker Mayfield (@IND). Sneaky shootout alert! I like both QBs to put up some points in what should be an entertaining game. The Bucs allow the 4th most FPPG to QBs and will be without CB Jamel Dean this week. The Colts are a more middle of the pack defense but Baker is getting it done and has enough weapons to keep up with the Colts.
Other Sleepers:
If you need a QB2 in your Superflex league this weekend, here are a few more QBs ranked 18 and lower for the week who I think you can fire up: J. Love (@DET), M. Stafford (@ARI), and D. Carr (or J. Winston if Carr is out) (@ATL). If you’re really stuck, I think Bryce Young (@TEN) will have one of his better games of the season, which is not saying that much.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Russell Wilson (vs. CLE). Russ has been OK this season, and the Broncos are the NFL’s most improved team over the last month. This week will be a challenge though, against a Browns’ defense that’s just plain nasty. They’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to QBs, and just 9 TD passes on the season (tied with BAL for fewest allowed).
Other Fades:
Tua (vs. NYJ). Maybe the Greatest Show on Surf needs to play a game down at the beach. In their last 2 contests they’ve failed to score more than 20 points, and a date at the Jets likely means more tough sledding, even if De’Von Achane returns and can stay in the game. Miami will likely be content to try to win this game with a conservative game plan that features plenty of rushing, playing solid defense against an inexperienced QB, and protecting the ball. The Jets are Top 10 in fewest FPPG allowed to QBs and yield the fewest to WRs, so expect a slightly down game from Tua.
Other higher-end QBs I’m fading this week: T. Lawrence (@HOU) and S. Howell (@DAL).
In terms of lower-ranked QBs, beyond the obvious players that nobody should even consider starting, I’d try to stay away from G. Smith (@SF), K. Pickett (@CIN), and D. Ridder (vs. NO).
It Might be This Week or Never For King Henry
RB:
Elite options - CMC, Etienne, and Ekeler; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Derrick Henry (vs. CAR). It’s been a frustrating year for Derrick Henry managers. The Titans are bad, their O-Line is bad, and game scripts have kept Henry from having those 25 carry games we’ve grown accustomed to. He’s coming off back-to-back games with less than 5 fantasy points, and some people are wondering if the King is dead. Well, we’re about to find out. This is the week where you might get that huge throwback game. The Panthers have allowed a league-worst 14 rushing TDs to RBs, and the second most FPPG to the position. This game probably won’t get away from the Titans, which should mean a lot of work for the big guy.
Other Rides:
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (vs. GB). While you’re prepping the turkey, flip on this game to see the Lions’ dynamic duo doing their thing, against a defense that’s easier to run on (9th most FPPG allowed to RBs) than throw against. I said it last week—this offense can support 2 fantasy-viable RBs most weeks, and this week is one of those weeks.
Rachaad White (@IND) and Gus Edwards (@LAC) have both been on fire lately, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue this week, in good matchups for both. Edwards is ranked just outside the Top 20 for the week which makes no sense to me. [NOTE: White was added to the injury report on Saturday, but is expected to play]
Other RBs ranked inside the Top 24 that I’m higher on this week: D. Swift (vs. BUF), A. Kamara (@ATL), and R. Mostert (@NYJ). I expect Top-10 finishes from all 3 of them this week. I also like I. Pacheco (@LV) and J. Ford (@DEN) as solid RB2 or Flex plays.
RB Sleeper of the Week: Kyren Williams (@ARI). I’m always a little leery of players in their first game back from an injury, but the waiving of Darrell Henderson lets me know that Williams is ready for close to a normal workload. Royce Freeman should see some work, but I like Williams to pick up where he left off.
Other Sleepers:
These RBs are all ranked outside the Top 25 this week, and I think all of them are worthy starts as RB2s for you: D. Singletary (vs. JAC), Z. Charbonnet (vs. SF), and J. Warren (@CIN). If you’re stuck, I think T. Chandler (@CHI) and K. Hunt (@DEN) are both worth a look.
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Bijan Robinson (vs. NO). Was the long-awaited increased usage 2 weeks ago a fluke, or will it sustain? We’re about to find out. The matchup this week is difficult, as the Saints allow the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs and have allowed just 4 rushing and 0 receiving TDs to the position. Bijan is hard to trust until we see consistent usage.
Other Fades:
James Cook (@PHI). The Eagles have been a brutal matchup for RBs all season long. They’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to the position and just 2 total TDs. Cook doesn’t get enough high-value touches as it is, and the matchup seals the deal as a player to avoid if you can.
A.J. Dillon will see an increased workload with Aaron Jones likely out, but I’m fading him at Detroit regardless. He’s been decidedly below average as a runner this year, and the Lions are a tough matchup (6th fewest FPPG to RBs). I’ll also fade Javonte Williams at home vs. the Browns. He’s just not getting enough of the workload.
I’m avoiding all Panther RBs at the Titans. They’re starting to share the work more, and the Titans are still a tougher matchup for RBs, and especially in games where they’re competitive.
Big Game Puka is Back!
WR:
Elite options - Here is what I wrote last week: Here are the top EIGHT WRs this season on a points per game basis: Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, K. Allen, C. Lamb, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, S. Diggs, and J. Chase. That’s a big group, but from this point forward, as long as they’re healthy and their QBs are also upright, I won’t be discussing them. They’re all matchup-proof, no brainer weekly starts. Yes, they can all put up pedestrian weeks, but honestly, there’s no insight needed here. My weekly analysis starts below this octet.
With Burrow done for the season, I’ll remove Chase from the list, and the elite group is now a septet. The analysis starts below them.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Puka Nacua (@ARI). Puka’s first good game in almost a month coincided with Matt Stafford’s return. There’s a chance Cooper Kupp will suit up this week but I’m guessing he won’t, and we saw the stats Nacua posted when Kupp was out to start the season. The Cardinals are a bottom 12 defense vs. WRs, and this figures to be a game with decent scoring.
Other Rides:
Mike Evans (@IND). Evans is an obvious name who’s been under-hyped all season. I’m on board this week, for sure. Evans has at least 80 yards or a TD in 5 straight games, and he’s Mayfield’s go-to guy when it matters. The Colts are a middle of the road matchup.
Michael Pittman (vs. TB). Let’s stay in the same game. The Bucs have been a very favorable matchup for passing games lately, and I expect that to continue this week, with their secondary banged up. Pittman has quietly been one of the busiest WRs this season, with 8 or more catches in 7 of 10 games. He should make that 8 of 11 against the 4th most fantasy-friendly defense for opposing WRs.
Here are some WR 2s (WRs 13-26) who I like to overperform this week, and who have a good shot at a Top 10 weekly finish: T. Dell (vs. JAC), D. Smith (vs. BUF), A. Thielen (@TEN), and Z. Flowers (@LAC and their atrocious pass defense, which has allowed the second most FPPG to WRs).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Jordan Addison (vs. CHI). His ranking in the mid 30s likely reflects an expectation that Justin Jefferson will be back this week. I don’t think he’s going to play until after the Week 13 Bye, and I like Addison as a WR2 with upside this week.
Other Sleepers:
If OBJ plays, get him in your lineup. He’s got a TD or 100+ yards in 3 straight, so he’s been trending the right way, and with Mark Andrews out, his snaps (which are lower than you’d want), routes run (ditto), and targets (double ditto) should increase. Oh, and did I mention that the Ravens are playing the Chargers? They can’t cover anyone, much less this crafty vet.
The Eagles allow the most FPPG to WRs, and Josh Allen is going to need to air it out this week to keep up with an offense that should put up plenty of points on Buffalo’s banged-up defense. So will it be Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, or both (or neither) who steps up? I’ll put my money on Shakir.
A few more WRs ranked outside the top 35 that I think you can play at Flex and feel pretty confident about this week are: J. Reed (@DET, and note, he led the Packers in rushing last week and should again get some carries), R. Shaheed (@ATL), J. Downs (vs. TB, if he plays), B. Cooks (vs. WAS), and D. Douglas (@NYG).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Jaylen Waddle (@NYJ). Of all the WRs ranked inside the top 20 this week, Waddle gives me the most pause. When Tyreek Hill missed a series last week, Waddle caught 3 balls. But overall, his usage and production is way down from what we’ve seen in his first 2 seasons. Waddle only has one Top-10 WR weekly finish on the season. Meanwhile, the Jets allow the fewest FPPG to WRs, and as I said above when I discussed Tua, I think Miami’s passing game will take a backseat to the ground game.
Other Fades:
Amari Cooper (@DEN). I hate leaving a really good and reliable car in the garage. But until I see him have a good game with DTR, I’m fading Cooper. I left him on the bench in my main league last week and I’ll do it again this week. Denver’s defense is suddenly playing a lot more like it did last season, which is bad news for opposing QBs and WRs.
Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA). The single most tragic squandering of fantasy talent this season has been second-year man Wilson, a very gifted receiver stuck catching passes from the likes of Zach Wilson and now Tim Boyle. Miami’s secondary is playing very well since the return of ballhawk Jalen Ramsey, and while I’m sure Wilson will see plenty of targets, I’m worried that once again, it won’t amount to much in the box score.
George Pickens (@CIN). He’s a Fade for me just about every week. His QB is bad, the offense is bad, and Diontae Johnson is the only pass catcher on this offense I can even consider. I don’t like having to rely on an unlikely big play when I put someone in my lineup.
More Fades: Giants WRs (I know, I know, I whiffed on this last week, but that was against the Commanders, who aren’t an actual NFL defense), D. London (vs. NO), T. Lockett (vs. SF), and J. Jeudy (vs. CLE).
It’s Next Man Up for the Ravens - Don’t Sleep on Him
TE:
Elite option - For this week, Kelce, Hockenson and Kittle; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Taysom Hill (@ATL). This one is a bit risky, but while I like quite a few TEs this week, Hill is the one who I think has the best chance to put up 15+ fantasy points (outside of the 3 elite options listed above). So he gets the Ride of the Week nod. Hill had 3 straight weekly Top 5 TE finishes before a down Week before the Week 11 Bye. Fire him back up and watch as he runs, catches, and passes his way to fantasy goodness once again.
Other Rides:
David Njoku (@DEN). This is a convergence of positive trends. Njoku has 4 straight games with at least 9 fantasy points, and the 15 targets he got last week (several of which he dropped) show that DTR is looking his way early and often. The other trend is that the Broncos have allowed the most receiving yards and FPPG to opposing TEs on the season.
A couple of other TE1s that I feel will outperform their ranking this week are Dalton Kincaid (@PHI, who struggles vs. TEs), Jake Ferguson (vs. WAS), and Trey McBride (vs. LAR).
TE Sleeper of the Week: Isaiah Likely (@LAC). I’m well aware that Likely did next to nothing earlier this season when Andrews missed time. He did plenty with the same opportunity last season, when the Ravens didn’t have much at the WR position. So this is certainly a risky play. Still, he’s an athletic player and I like the opportunity plus matchup combo here, as the Chargers really struggle vs. the pass across the board, including to TEs (5th most FPPG allowed).
Other Sleepers: With no teams on Bye, and only a few TEs injured, I can’t imagine too many fantasy managers need to dig deep at TE this week. If you do, consider J. Smith (vs. NO).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Cole Kmet (@MIN). I had trouble finding TE Fades this week, in the TE1-15 range. Most have decent matchups and/or are playing well of late. Kmet has been ice cold the last 2 weeks, including in Justin Fields’s return game, and the Vikings’ defense has been playing very well of late and especially at home.
Other Fades: If you need to reach for a starter at the position, I’d stay away from all of these players if I could help it: T. Higbee (@ARI), H. Henry (@NYG), T. Conklin (vs. MIA), and Charger TEs (vs. BAL).
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 12 Waiver Wire column: waiver-wire-week-12 .
That’s a wrap! Enjoy the holiday and good luck with your fantasy matchups this week!
DH
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