Pigskin Papers: 2023 Waiver Wire Week 12
Zach Attack! Charbonnet is The Top Add for Week 12.
(Published November 20, 2023)
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Welcome to the Waiver Wire, Week 12, and an early Happy Thanksgiving to all. The NFL is serving it up thick this holiday weekend, with 3 games on Thanksgiving, one on Black Friday, 11 on Sunday, and one on Monday night. All 32 teams will be in action, and just like the holiday we’re celebrating this week, the goal is to stuff us full with as much football as we can handle.
A big story of the season continues to be QB injuries, and in the last 6 days 2 more signal callers were lost for the season, both in the AFC North and more specifically, both on teams that play in Ohio. And so it goes, and goes, and goes. It’s the year of the backup QB, most of whom haven’t played well enough to be on your fantasy teams. This week brings an interesting offering of free agents on the Waiver Wire, and with the fantasy playoffs just around the corner, fantasy managers need to keep grinding. I’ll try to help.
I’ll start the column with a strategy tip. There are no Byes in Week 12, but in a brutal bit of scheduling, Week 13 has 6 of them, and for many, that comes at a very bad time with the fantasy playoffs set to start in Week 15. After that, 2 final teams are on a Bye in Week 14. Thanks, NFL. So plan ahead - if you’re going to need a player at a “onesie” position (QB, TE, PK, D/ST) in Week 13 or 14, look ahead at the schedule and consider grabbing them now, in a week with no Byes. Here’s the schedule:
BYES WEEK 12: NONE
BYES WEEK 13: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG
BYES WEEK 14: ARI, WAS
The Process: Each week, I try to identify the top Waiver Wire targets and evaluate the short and long term prospects of those players. I also do my best to reveal which players who are coming off a big week are fool’s gold. Finally, I endeavor to find streamers who might help you in a pinch. Note that this advice is primarily intended for Season-Long leagues, and NOT Dynasty leagues.
Some of the players I’ll talk about won’t be available in your league. As a general rule, I list players who are available in more than 50% of leagues. But what does that even mean? A 10 team league with 6 bench spots will have a much larger free agent pool than a 14 team league with 8 bench spots. Most leagues fall somewhere in between. This isn’t “one size fits all.”
Week 12 Waiver Wire:
QB:
Baker Mayfield. He’s still available in the majority of 1-QB leagues. I’ve mentioned him literally every week. I know it’s hard for some people to believe, but he’s having a good season and importantly, he’s got a pretty safe floor, and a decent schedule moving forward.
Gardner Minshew. He’s been up and down this season, but I’m high on him as a Week 12 streaming option against the Bucs, who’ve surrendered 3+ TD passes in 2 of their last 3 games and are bottom 10 against the pass on the season.
Derek Carr (shoulder, concussion) should be back this week. Like Mayfield, he’s been listed in this column almost every week, and you know what you’re getting. He’s a serviceable QB2, with a decent floor and a low ceiling.
Feel like living on the edge? Desmond Ridder is going to be starting again for the Falcons. If he can protect the ball a little better, he does have some upside. In 2-QB leagues he’s worth a roster spot and especially with all the injuries and the big Bye week coming up. In 1 QB leagues, you can do better if you want or need to carry a backup.
If you’re stuck in a Superflex with all the QB injuries, I’d tread carefully. DTR and Jake Browning are not likely to be anything special, but can perhaps be serviceable QB2s in a pinch. I wouldn’t go anywhere near Tim Boyle. And while Tommy DeVito looked like a real QB on Sunday, it was against the Commanders. They’re the single most generous defense to QBs and WRs. I’d stay away.
Don’t waste a roster spot on Aaron Rodgers, OK? There’s no way a 39 year old is rushing back from this injury to play behind that O-Line on a team that’s at best a playoff long shot.
Ty Chandler Steps Up
RB:
Zach Charbonnet. He’s been mentioned in this column as a good depth add multiple times, and this was why. Running backs get hurt. Hopefully you rostered him. He’s still available in more than half of Yahoo leagues, so maybe you can still get him in your league. With Ken Walker suffering an oblique injury that sounds like it could cost him time, Charbs is likely to get his chance to start for at least one week (the Seahawks play on Thursday) and possibly longer. The good news is the opportunity to see a lot more work. The bad news is the Seahawks’ murderous schedule over the next month (SF, @DAL, @SF, PHI). Still, opportunity is half the game and I’m guessing he gets at least 2 starts, and will continue to have a decent-sized complementary role whenever Walker is back. He’s been playing pretty well in limited duty and is a priority add and worth a decent amount of your remaining FAAB.
Ty Chandler. He got gobbled up in lots of leagues last week, but he’s still out there in plenty of others. He probably won’t supplant Mattison absent an injury but he looks the part and had a nice game on Sunday night. A big chunk of his yardage came on a fake punt but still, he did well in both the run and pass game, and unlike Mattison, he didn't lose a costly fumble. Chandler has value going forward and is definitely a player to target this week.
Khalil Herbert ad Roschon Johnson. D’Onta Foreman suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. It may not keep him out of next week’s game, but both Johnson and Herbert are worth picking up if you’ve got the space, and especially with Chicago’s offense playing better. The cautionary note here is that when all 3 backs are healthy, it’s probably a backfield to mostly avoid unless you’re stuck.
Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson. Devon Achane’s much-heralded return unfortunately lasted all of one series, as he re-aggravated the knee injury that landed him on IR back in Week 5. Ahmed got banged up late in the game but seems OK, and Wilson was a healthy scratch with Achane returning. Raheem Mostert benefits the most if Achane is again going to miss time, but the other 2 backs are worth a roster spot given the uncertainty, and given how much of a fantasy bonanza this offense can be for RBs.
Other depth adds/stashes: This week Ken Walker went down. Next week it could be someone else. So if you have the space it’s good to roster any of: R. Dowdle, T. Spears, E. Elliott, and E. Mitchell. And I’ll also continue to recommend K. Mitchell and J. McKinnon as good depth players with upside.
Jayden Reed Outruns the Chargers
WR:
Sometimes we forget guys who are on a Bye week. If either of Josh Downs or Demario Douglas is on your waiver wire, they’re very good adds for the stretch run. They’ve both been column favorites for more than a month. Both are seeing enough volume that you can play them as a WR3 or Flex, and both are good playmakers with upside.
Odell Beckham, Jr. scored in Week 10 (on just one long catch), and then went over 100 yards in Week 11. With Mark Andrews done for the season, OBJ has an opportunity to build on the last 2 games and carve out a meaningful role on a very good offense. You don’t often describe a guy over 30 this way, but he’s an ascending player you want to add if you can.
I’ve touted these 2 big-play receivers several times each: Khalil Shakir and Rashid Shaheed. Shakir blew up this past week (3-115-1, with most of that coming on an 81 yard TD), against the Jets of all teams. As for Shaheed, he had a similar game 3 weeks ago (3-153-1), and now he may get increased opportunities if Michael Thomas misses time. Both players are low-floor, high ceiling, types so you should know that going in, but are definitely worth rostering and if your season is at the point where you need to swing for the fences, they’re that type of WR.
Jayden Reed is quickly becoming a useful cog in the Green Bay offense. Working mostly from the slot, he’s seeing decent target volume, and this week he scored on a run play. He’s had at least 3 receptions in 5 straight games. He’s ascending at the right time and I like him as a depth add.
A few more depth adds I like: N. Brown (who missed Week 11 with an injury, but should be back this week), JSN, J. Dotson, J. Watson, and G. Dortch. All of these players have the potential to have Flex appeal down the stretch. Watson saw a season-high 11 targets from Mahomes on Monday night, but we’ve seen all season that it’s hard to trust any WR on the Chiefs.
Tutu Atwell was a bit boom or bust with Cooper Kupp out of the lineup to start the season. Kupp might be missing more time with his latest injury, but I don’t think Atwell is anything more than bench depth even if Kupp misses games. I prefer all of the other players mentioned above.
Isaiah is Likely to See a Bigger Role
TE:
Isaiah Likely. Mark Andrews is done for the season, which opens the door for Likely to operate as the starting tight end, on an offense that uses its tight ends a lot. Likely has had this opportunity before, both this season and last, with mixed results. Last year, the Ravens had one of the weakest WR groups in the NFL. It’s a better and deeper unit this year, and I don’t expect Likely to be anything better than a mid-range TE2. But given the big opportunity and the quality of the Ravens’ offense, he’s definitely worth a pickup.
How is Taysom Hill still rostered at under 50% on almost every major fantasy platform? Because of one down week and a Bye? Please remedy that! It won’t hit every week, but the 3-tool upside is too good to pass up. Readers of this column are probably tired of me mentioning Hill— another player who I’ve named almost every week.
Cade Otton. He keeps getting looks, including in the red zone. He’s got at least 5 targets in 4 of his last 5 games. He’s a good depth add.
Three more TEs to consider for depth: Michael Mayer, Tanner Hudson and Tyler Conklin.
With no teams on Bye, you probably don’t need the next section, but I’m including it anyway, free of charge!
PK Streamers, Week 12: N. Folk (vs. CAR), M. Gay (vs. TB), M. Prater (vs. LAR), G. Joseph (vs. CHI)
D/ST Streamers, Week 12: MIA (@NYJ), NYG (vs. NE), NE (@NYG), DEN (vs. CLE), CIN (vs. PIT).
Good luck with your Week 12 Waiver claims, and enjoy all the food and football this week!
DH
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