Power Ranking The NFL Divisions - 2024
The AFC South: Land of the Hot Young QBs
(Published April 20, 2024)
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Happy 4-20, football fans! With the NFL draft looming and free agency largely in the rearview mirror, this feels like a good time to power rank the NFL’s 8 divisions. As we head towards the 2024 season, which division is best? Which is most intriguing? Let’s find out.
My criteria are simple: Which divisions feature the strongest teams and the highest level of competition, and which groupings of teams offer the most compelling stories? To help with the first factor, I looked at projected win totals for every team (courtesy of FanDuel), and totaled that up for each division. Those FanDuel numbers are listed below. More projected wins means stronger teams, at least in the aggregate. Fewer projected wins means weaker teams, and the fewest projected wins means you’re the perennially dreadful NFC South (spoiler alert: I’m projecting this to be the NFL’s worst division for the third straight year).
I debated whether to rank the divisions from best to worst, or worst to best. This really isn’t that suspenseful, so let’s take it from the top.
Lions and Packers: One of the Strongest 1-2 Punches in the League
NFC North (total projected wins: 35)
I went back and forth between the 2 North divisions for the top spot, but ultimately went with what Chris Berman used to call the NFC Norris (a great hockey reference, for us old-timers). Remove the Chiefs, and this division won the most total playoff games last year (3). This division gets the nod from me also because it’s full of young teams on the rise. Could I be a year early, with 2 of the 4 teams likely starting rookie QBs? Sure. But let’s look at the landscape. The Lions lost a heartbreaker in the NFC Title game, and after the 49ers, have the shortest odds to win the conference at +600. The Packers fielded the NFL’s youngest club last year, and first-year starting QB Jordan Love and the rest of the team came on very strong down the stretch. They obliterated the Cowboys in Dallas in the Wild Card Round, and like the Lions, gave San Francisco all it wanted and then some in the playoffs. Aaron who? Green Bay is a hot pick at +850 to win the NFC. The Bears also played very well down the stretch, in their case behind a spirited young defense. They added some good pieces in free agency and have the 1st and 9th picks in the draft, which will almost certainly be QB Caleb Williams, and then something for the offense (an elite receiving weapon or a top tackle) at Pick 9, unless they trade out of that pick for more draft capital. They’re a really interesting team that should offer a very good landing spot for Williams to have a chance to succeed right away. The Vikings brought in Sam Darnold as a bridge option at QB and appear poised to trade up for one of the top 4 QBs in this draft. They’re just one season removed from winning the division. They added Aaron Jones to an elite set of receiving weapons and the defense improved a lot last year under new DC Brian Flores. This division is going to be very competitive and really fun to watch, and I think it could put 3 teams into the playoffs.
AFC North (total projected wins: 38)
This is the strongest division on paper, with the highest projected win total. The AFC North was the only NFL division that put 3 teams into the playoffs last season, and the one team that missed out lost in the AFC Title game in 2022 and the Super Bowl in 2021, and will be getting Joe Burrow back from injury. So it’s a loaded group. The Ravens boasted the NFL’s best record last season, have the reigning league MVP, and should again be a force, even after some key departures of players and coaches from their defense. They’ve had occasional trouble salting away wins with the lead in the 4th quarter. Enter new addition Derrick Henry, the undisputed king of closing out games. The Browns are feisty on both sides of the ball, and say what you want about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but they’re a big improvement over the trio of hot garbage that the Steelers trotted out at QB last year. That team made the playoffs despite its QB play and is always going to be competitive under HC Mike Tomlin. As an added bonus, and with a nod to the NFC East, no division has better or more bitter rivalries than this one. The AFC North is again going to be hard-hitting, must-see TV.
AFC East (total projected wins: 35)
The Bills have been one of the NFL’s best teams this decade, winning at least 11 games in each of the last 4 seasons while collecting 4 straight division flags. Miami joined Buffalo in the playoffs in each of the last 2 seasons, but those 2 squads came into this offseason with the worst cap situations in the league and both took some big hits in free agency. Still, Buffalo has Josh Allen and Miami is still stocked with the league’s speediest playmakers, and both figure to be competitive again in a loaded AFC. The Patriots are in a rebuild, with a brand new coach after 24 seasons being led by Bill Belichick, and likely with a rookie QB, so let’s put them aside. What makes this division really intriguing is the Jets, who are hoping that 40 year old Aaron Rodgers can come back strong from his achilles tear and help the team to break the league’s longest playoff drought. The defense is there, and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson might be the best young RB-WR combo in the league. More than any team in the NFL, the Jets (who have the 10th pick in the draft) are built to win this season, and Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh are both staring at the unemployment line if things go wrong.
AFC South (total projected wins: 33)
Wait, what? Is that a misprint? This division has probably been the NFL’s weakest since Peyton Manning’s last healthy season with the Colts (2010). The AFC South hasn’t produced a Wild Card team in 4 seasons, but that could change this year. What makes this division so intriguing is the young QBs, 3 of whom (C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis) were rookies last season and all of whom showed promise. The 4 starters in this division have only played a combined total of 6 seasons, which is by far the lowest total of any division. Fun fact: 2023 OROY C.J. Stroud currently sits behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the preseason MVP odds. Let’s go! This division is the NFL’s future, and it starts this season.
NFC East (total projected wins: 34)
If I had done this exercise a year ago, this division would’ve taken the number one spot heading into 2023. Three teams from this division won at least one playoff game in 2022, with the Eagles going the farthest and ultimately losing a very close Super Bowl to the Chiefs. How the mighty have fallen—each NFC East team took a step back and did worse in 2023 than in 2022. The Eagles fell apart in the second half of the season before finally flaming out vs. the Bucs in the Wild Card Round. The Cowboys again went 12-5 but struggled against better teams, and as noted above the Packers ran them out of the Jerry Dome in the Wild Card round. The Giants struggled and also lost Daniel Jones to a torn ACL, and all you need to know about the Commanders is that they have the second pick in the draft. Still, this division could return to NFC prominence in 2024. Philadelphia added a major weapon in Saquon Barkley and if it can shore up its leaky secondary, has a chance to again be an elite player in the conference. Dallas is coming off three straight 12-5 seasons and still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball despite a lackluster off-season (so far). The Giants and Commanders both have picks in the top 6, which figure to be the second QB taken and either the first or second WR off the board. Washington is unlikely to be competitive in 2024 but the addition of Brian Burns gives the G-Men one of the most disruptive defensive lines in the NFL. I’m not really sure what to expect from them in Brian Daboll’s third season in charge.
NFC West (total projected wins: 33)
I almost put this division ahead of the NFC East. The 49ers are the class of the NFC and came as close as you can get to winning a Super Bowl, but as we saw with the Eagles last year, the hangover off of a close call like that can be a real thing. They’ve got the NFC’s shortest odds to represent the conference (+250), but that’s not where I’d put my money, regardless of whether WR Brandon Aiyuk stays with the team. Sean McVay’s Rams were surprisingly strong in 2023 and for the first time in forever, they’ve got a first round draft pick! Here’s another fun fact: their last first round selection was Jared Goff way back in 2016. But they also don’t have Aaron Donald which is a huge loss. Still, as long as Matthew Stafford stays healthy, and has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to throw to, they figure to be in the mix. Arizona has the 4th pick in the draft and the most draft capital of any team, including 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. They played hard for Jonathan Gannon in his first year as Head Coach and with all those high picks, could surprise around a healthy Kyler Murray. Seattle enters a new era without Pete Carroll, and I think we saw the best of Geno Smith 2 years ago. This might be the beginning of a mini-rebuild for them.
AFC West (total projected wins: 32)
The projected win total is close to most of the other divisions, but take away the Chiefs (11.5) and the average projected win total for the other 3 teams is less than 7 per team. Kansas City remains the class of the division (and the conference, and the entire league), but after them the division is pretty weak. The Chargers are definitely a team to watch with Jim Harbaugh taking over for the overmatched Brandon Staley (starting with what they do with the 5th pick—I have them trading down but what do I know), but it might take a year before the team is put together the way he wants. The Raiders have some nice pieces but don’t have a long-term answer at QB and are seemingly in an endless rebuild, while the Broncos (who also don’t have a long-term answer at QB, much less a short-term one) appear to be bottoming out and truly starting over under Sean Payton. The disastrous trade for Russell Wilson plus the deal for Payton likely set this team back for half a decade, at least.
NFC South (total projected wins: 30)
This hot mess again figures to be the NFL’s worst division, top to bottom. How bad has it been? Well, no team in this division was above .500 over the past 2 seasons—The Bucs have won this division each of those 2 years with a combined record of 17-17. In fact, they’ve won it 3 straight seasons, but that streak is in jeopardy, even with Baker Mayfield providing some stability at the QB position and much of the core of the 2021 Super Bowl team still intact (for better or worse). The combination of Arthur Smith leaving and veteran Kirk Cousins swooping in to play QB has the Falcons as the preseason favorite to claim the south. So one team has some buzz at least. Tampa should again be decent but nothing to write home about, while the Saints’ slow decline from division dominance continues. And then there are the Panthers. Carolina (2-15 in 2023) will try to work its way out of the league’s cold, dark basement—without a first round pick, and without Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Brian Burns, and pretty much every other really good player that was on its roster 3 years ago. If you want to do a case study in how to destroy an NFL roster, the Panthers are your pick. Watching C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams over the next decade might make Panther fans keep pounding. Beers, that is. Lots of them. Or the harder stuff.
Mic’d Up, Please? They Call it the Black and Blue Division For a Reason!
That’s it. feel free to comment on my power rankings in the comments section below, and enjoy the draft!
Link to my recent NFL Draft article: confessions-of-a-draft-a-holic.
DH
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