Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 9
Can This Red-Hot Duo Take Down the Eagles?
(Published November 1, 2023, updated for Weather and Injury News, Sunday morning, November 5, 2023)
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Welcome to the Week 9 Fantasy Preview. The headlines: 5 QBs who started games in Week 8 didn’t finish them, Josh Dobbs got traded to the Vikings, none of Derrick Henry, Nuk Hopkins, Davante Adams, or Jerry Jeudy got traded, Lenny Fournette signed with the Bills, Josh McDaniels got fired after just 25 games, 4 teams with a lot of fantasy assets are on Bye this week, and the 2023 fantasy regular season is officially into the second half. Got all of that? Good, let’s get after it.
WEEK 9 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: Waiver-wire-week-9 .
WEEK 8 Stats of the Week:
After winning 15 straight regular season games, the 49ers have lost 3 straight.
After winning his first 10 regular season starts, Brock Purdy has lost 3 straight.
Christian McCaffrey has scored at least one TD in 16 straight games, an NFL record.
Every team in the AFC North is above .500.
No team in the NFC South has a winning record.
The 2023 Bengals: 4-0 vs. NFC West teams, and 0-3 vs. AFC teams.
The Broncos’ win over the Chiefs on Sunday snapped a 16 game winning streak for KC in the series.
The Chiefs were held below 10 points for only the third time with Patrick Mahomes at QB.
Mahomes lost for the first time to a division foe on the road.
Lamar Jackson is 17-1 vs. NFC teams.
Will Levis became just the 3rd QB to throw 4 TDs in his NFL debut (Fran Tarkenton, 1961 and Marcus Mariota, 2015).
Nuk Hopkins has now caught the first TD pass thrown by 4 different QBs, which ties him with Marvin Harrison and Joey Galloway for the most all-time.
Dallas safety Daron Bland has 3 pick-sixes on the season. The NFL record is 4 (several players).
Since the start of the 2021 season, Austin Ekeler leads the NFL in TDs scored, by 11 TDs.
A.J. Brown has 125+ receiving yards in 6 straight games, an NFL record.
Tyreek Hill is the first player in the Super Bowl era to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the first 8 games of a season.
Hill is tied with “Bullet” Bob Hayes for the most TDs of 40+ yards (36) before turning 30. For those who aren’t familiar with Hayes, he won a pair of sprinting gold medals (100m, 4x100m relay) at the 1964 Summer Olympics.
Tua is a perfect 6-0 as a starter against the Patriots and Bill Belichick.
One week after losing to the QB who preceded him as the starter at Alabama (Hurts), Tua beat the QB who succeeded him as the starter there (Mac Jones).
Jets@Giants: 24 punts, 24 first downs, 23 points, and the Giants ended the day with negative net passing yards. The teams were a combined 0-17 on third down in the first half. I was at this game, in the rain. I have nothing good to say about it. Nothing. It was the worst football game I’ve ever seen. OT felt like a punishment of some kind.
More on this mess: Darren Waller left the game in the first half with a hamstring injury. He and Matt Breida led all Giants receivers on the day, each with one catch for 4 yards.
NFL kickers have made 4 FGs of 60+ yards so far this season. NFL kickers made 4 FGs of 60+ yards in the entire 20th century.
WEEK 9 BYES: DEN, DET, JAC, SF
***SUNDAY WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE***
Weather Report: It’s November, and amazingly, there don’t appear to be any trouble spots for the Sunday and Monday games. NOTE 1: MIA@KC will be played in Germany, and kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET. NOTE 2: The clocks in the U.S. changed early Sunday morning (they moved back one hour).
Injury Report: NOTE: Players on IR are not listed.
OUT: K. Murray (not activated), D. Pierce, E. Demercado, CEH, B. Scott, D. London, C. Samuel, D. Waller, J. Palmer, R. Woods, D. Parker
DOUBTFUL: J. Fields
IN (no injury designation and/or expected to start): D. Watson, D. Jones, O. Beckham, G. Everett, D. Njoku
Questionable, expected to play: J. Mixon, P. Nacua
Questionable: M. Stafford (NOTE: he is NOT expected to play), K. Miller, J. Downs, M. Wilson, D.J. Chark
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: KC (26.5) CIN (25.5) PHI (24.75) BAL (24.5) MIA (24.25)
Bottom 5: ARI (15) CHI (16.75) MIN (16.75) TEN (16.75) NYG (17.5)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. BUF 3. DAL 4. SF 5. NO
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. WAS 2. LAC 3. PHI 4. CHI 5. DEN
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. TB 3. JAX 4. ATL 5. DET
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. CAR 2. DEN 3. ARI 4. IND 5. LV
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. HOU 3. BAL 4. DAL 5. LV
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. PHI 2. WAS 3. LAC 4. PIT 5. TB
Top 5 vs TE: 1. CLE 2. SF 3. TEN 4. BAL 5. ARI
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. CIN 2. DEN 3. NYJ 4. LA 5. DET
Week 9 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
INTRO
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades and Sleepers had a very strong week in Week 8, with the correct calls outnumbering the incorrect ones by a good margin. The one I’d like to have back? The Fade call on Nuk Hopkins. Ouch. Hey, nobody is perfect. You can check my work here: Fantasy-preview-week-8-1 .
The Greatest Show on Surf Heads to Germany to Meet the Mighty Chiefs
QB: It’s a tough week at the QB position, with multiple starters injured (and for the most part, status unknown as of this writing), and 4 teams on Bye that have healthy, fantasy-viable QBs. If you’re in a Superflex league, it’s especially difficult this week.
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Jackson and Herbert; the analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Dak Prescott (@PHI). Prescott did his usual blow-the-doors-off thing coming off of a Bye last week, but can he extend the strong play? I think he can, as the Eagles aren’t the same suffocating defense they were last year. I like the trend lines here. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs, Sam Howell totally lit them up last week, and Dak has averaged 27 fantasy points in his last 2 starts. This game could be a shootout, with Dak lighting it up.
Other Rides:
Derek Carr (vs. CHI). This call is mostly about the matchup, but also, the Saints are starting to fire on all cylinders, other than Chris Olave. They’ve quietly scored the most points in the NFL over the last 3 weeks. The Bears have allowed the 4th most FPPG to QBs, and won’t offer much resistance. With the dearth of QB options this week, Carr is a Top 10 play.
Tua (@KC, in Germany). I don’t love the matchup against the tough KC defense, but QB Rides are hard to find this week. Miami will need to score plenty of points in this one and if Tua can avoid mistakes, he should put up some numbers. This game has the highest total of the week (50.5).
A few QBs ranked from 11 to 16 this week (so, not sleepers) who I think have a decent chance to finish inside the weekly Top 10 are S. Howell (@NE), G. Minshew (@CAR), and B. Young (vs. IND). Howell was the QB1 last week, and that was his third Top 10 finish in the last 4 weeks.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Mac Jones (vs. WAS). OK, this one is making me queasy, as Jones has been a tough hang most weeks, and the Pats just lost their best WR to a torn ACL. But hear me out. Have you seen the Commanders’ defense? And that was before they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. They’ve allowed the most FPPG and the most passing TDs (18) to QBs this season. Jones should put up serviceable numbers this week.
Other Sleepers:
It hasn’t been pretty, but if you’re stuck, I think you can fire up P.J. Walker against the Cardinals, or Deshaun Watson if he attempts a return. Arizona is a bottom 10 defense against the pass, and Walker is starting to look a bit more comfortable (his late interception last week notwithstanding). If Watson starts, the risk is that he again doesn’t finish. [UPDATE: Watson is expected to start. He’s a Sleeper for me]
It’s a tough week for QBs. I know, I said that already. If you need a QB2 in a Superflex, of the lower-ranked QBs my other favorites this week are T. Heinicke (vs. MIN) and GULP, Z. Wilson (vs. LAC and their horrible pass defense).
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Geno Smith (@BAL). Smith makes my fades for the second straight week. The Ravens are the worst matchup for QBs this season (fewest FPPG and just 6 TD passes allowed, best in the league), and Smith hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in 2023. He’s ranked inside the Top 12 QBs this week and even with all the Byes and injuries, I don’t see him finishing inside the Top 15.
Other Fades:
If Kenny Pickett plays, I’d leave him on my bench. He might not be 100%, the Titans have been a surprisingly tough matchup for QBs, and the Steelers’ offense is basically a wall of slow-drying paint.
I’m fading any and all QBs in the NYG@LV game. The vibes for both teams are horrible right now, and this feels like a very low-scoring game where all you really want to back is the 2 starting RBs.
Breece Hall— A Jet Cleared for Takeoff
RB:
Elite options - Ekeler, Kamara and Barkley are the Top 3 this week; the analysis starts below those 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Josh Jacobs (vs. NYG). Jacobs looked good on Monday night, against a stout run defense. He was pretty much the only thing that looked good for the Raiders’ offense. This matchup against an improved NYG defense is significantly easier, and I expect Jabobs to be busy in both the pass and run game, and to again find the end zone at least once. The Giants have allowed the 7th most FPFG to RBs, and this is a game the Raiders can win for their new interim coach with ball control.
Other Rides:
Jonathan Taylor (@CAR) and Breece Hall (vs. LAC) are both ranked inside the Top 7 this week, so they’re pretty obvious names, and I won’t be surprised if they both turn in Top 5 performances. Taylor is gradually ramping up as the RB1 in the Colts offense, and the sledding should be easy this week against Carolina, which has allowed the most FPPG and rushing TDs (12) to RBs. As for Hall, he leads all qualifying runners in yards per carry at 5.7, and is a big play waiting to happen.
Derrick Henry (@PIT). Henry hasn’t had any monster games yet this season, and at age 29, maybe he won’t have any. But he’s still an RB1 in fantasy and I like the matchup this week, against a Steelers’ defense that’s allowing 4.6 yards per carry and can be run on. A lot depends on the play of Will Levis and whether the Titans can get out to a lead. But Henry is ranked outside the Top 10 this week and I expect a better performance than that from the big fella.
Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. WAS). It’s been a tough slog, and Stevenson managers are surely fed up. I get all of that, but I like him to have one of his best games of the season this week, against a Washington defense that’s been struggling mightily, and just traded away both of its starting DEs.
Here are a few more RBs ranked between outside the Top 12 but inside the Top 24 for this week who I think have a decent shot to finish as Top 15 plays. It’s a big group: G. Edwards (vs. SEA, and the Ride call on him hit big-time last week), J. Mixon (vs. BUF), C. Hubbard (vs. IND), Z. Moss (@CAR), R. White (@HOU), D. Henderson (@GB), and Brian Robinson (@NE).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Kareem Hunt (vs. ARI). He’s found the end zone in 3 straight, so he isn’t exactly a deep sleeper. Still, he’s ranked outside the Top 25 this week and that’s too low. This is a tough backfield to handicap, with 3 RBs all getting work, but I like Hunt to lead the RBs in snaps and touches again this week, in a plus matchup. If you’re really desperate, or are looking for a long-shot play in DFS, Pierre Strong, Jr. makes for an interesting sleeper play. He showed his big-play ability last week.
Other Sleepers:
Saturday Add: With D. Pierce out, I think you can fire up D. Singletary this week. He should see the bulk of the work, and he’s been the more effective back this season.
This is a pretty straightforward week at the RB position. You’re going to want to play most of the familiar names. If you’re stuck this week, some sleepers that I’d consider are A.J. Dillon (vs. LAR), R. Freeman (@GB), and E. Elliott (vs. WAS).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Tony Pollard (@PHI). The Dallas offense totally went off last week, but Pollard was left out in the cold, again. He’s just not doing much with his touches, and he hasn’t scored a TD or gone above 55 rushing yards since Week 3. Maybe he’s not fully back from the broken leg he suffered in January. Whatever it is, he doesn’t look like the same explosive player this season, and while better production is surely coming (the Cowboys are one of the least efficient red-zone offenses this season's after bing the most efficient last year), I wouldn't count on it this week, against a Philadelphia defense that’s allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to RBs.
Other Fades:
Jerome Ford (vs. ARI). This is now a crowded backfield, and he’s feeling like the odd man out, at least for now as he continues to recover from an ankle sprain. He trailed both Hunt and Strong in carries last week.
Aaron Jones (vs. LAR). It’s a decent matchup, but I don’t think you can trust Jones, who’s been out-snapped by A.J. Dillon in every game since he returned from the hamstring injury in Week 1. Jones hasn’t gone above 60 total yards or scored a TD since Week 1. Pass, until further notice.
Najee Harris (vs. TEN). He’s another RB who went in Round 2 of fantasy drafts and has been a major disappointment. Sadly, he makes the Fades again this week. If you start him you’re banking on a TD for him to be productive, and the Titans are a negative matchup.
Alexander Mattison (@ATL). Should I just list all of the RBs who were overdrafted and aren’t producing RB1 or RB2 numbers? Fine, then I’ll also include Dameon Pierce (vs. TB) as a Fade. The Vikings will want to run the ball in the first week without Kirk Cousins, but ATL is a bad matchup. Fun fact: They’re one of 2 teams that hasn’t allowed an RB to score a rushing TD this season. Fun fact #2: the Bucs are the other team.
D’Onta Foreman (@NO). It’s a very tough matchup, and I think the dream is over, at least for now.
Miles Sanders (vs. IND). Ugh. You can’t start him at this point. You just can’t. I know you expected a big season. Sorry….
Is Demario Douglas Ready to Pop?
WR:
Elite options - Hill, Chase, Diggs, and A.J. Brown; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: CeeDee Lamb (@PHI). He’s coming off by far his best game of the season, but I think he can successfully chase last week’s performance this week. The Eagles have allowed the most FPPG and the second most TDs (12) to WRs on the season. This is an absolute smash spot for Lamb and it’s why he’s ranked as the WR5 for the week. This pick is pretty obvious, so I won’t charge for it.
Other Rides:
Jaylen Waddle (@KC). Waddle has battled through both a concussion and a back injury so far this season, and has been a very clear #2 to Tyreek Hill’s #1. Well, this always felt like it would be a major funnel offense to those 2 guys, and last week, that started to take shape. With the Chiefs likely to focus sharply on their former teammate, Waddle has a great shot to build on what he did last week (7-121-1, on 12 targets), which were season highs across the board. It was only a matter of time before he broke out.
Adam Thielen (vs. IND) is ranked outside the Top 10 this week and that’s too low for me. He’s had double-digit targets in 4 of his last 5 games, he trails only Ja’Marr Chase in receptions per game, and Bryce Young clearly trusts him above all others. The Colts are a fairly neutral matchup, and Thielen should again be busy in what could be a surprisingly higher scoring game.
Here are several WRs ranked between 13 and 25 this week who I think can give you a WR1 finish (Top 12): G. Wilson (vs. LAC, and their defense that’s allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs), M. Pittman (@CAR), and D. Hopkins (@PIT, assuming he suits up (toe)).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Demario Douglas (vs. WAS). He was featured in my Waiver Wire column this week and hopefully you grabbed him. He led the team in targets and catches last week and with Bourne done for the season and Parker suffering a concussion, Pop has a chance to, well, pop, and especially against the Commanders’ terrible defense. Ignore the weekly ranking from the experts (a way too low WR46), and get Douglas into your lineup this week.
Other Sleepers:
Rashid Shaheed (vs. CHI). He may not get much volume, but he proved last week that he doesn’t need it. No, you can’t expect 3-153-1 every week, but if you like swinging for the fences with your Flex spot, Shaheed is a nice option for that and especially when the opposing defense can be had.
Josh Dotson (@NE) is coming off his best game of the season, by far (8-108-1 on 10 targets). It was his only game this season with more than 45 receiving yards, so I can understand if you’re gun shy. But it was also his second straight game with 8 or more targets, so maybe he is trending. He was a popular breakout candidate for 2023 and it might just be that it’s a second half breakout. I’d be comfortable flexing him this week.
Here are several WRs ranked outside the Top 30 this week who I think you can confidently plug in not only as a WR3 or Flex, but as your WR2 if you’re stuck: R. Rice (vs. MIA), J. Downs (@CAR, IF he suits up), T. Lockett (@BAL), D. London (vs. MIN), and B. Cooks (@PHI). [SATURDAY UPDATE: London is OUT this week, and Downs is a GTD]
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: D.J. Moore (@NO). Fantasy leaderboards can be misleading. Moore is the WR6 on the season, but more than a third of his production came in one game, and he hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points in any of his last 3 outings. My guess is he’ll extend that to 4 this week. The matchup with the Saints is unfavorable, and until Justin Fields is back under center, I’m staying away if I can help it.
Other Fades:
You’re starting Keenan Allen if you have him, but don’t expect a great game from him. The Jets have allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs, and have only allowed one TD catch to a WR so far this season. I’m expecting a pretty pedestrian 6-for-60 type game from Allen.
George Pickens (vs. TEN). Kenny Pickett is iffy for this game, and I’m leery of the entire Pittsburgh offense on a short week against a Titans’ defense that’s beatable, but has been a little better than advertised against the pass. Could he bust a big play? Absolutely. But if he doesn’t, you’re likely to wish you hadn’t started him.
Jordan Addison (@ATL) scares me this week. I saw what Nuk Hopkins did to the Falcons last week, with a rookie QB making his NFL debut. Jaren Hall will be getting his first start and it’s hard to know what to expect from the 5th round pick, but odds are it won’t be particularly good, and Addison won’t be giving you anything close to the studly numbers you’ve gotten used to.
Here’s a conditional call, and it’s pretty obvious at that. If Matt Stafford is out, you’ll need to temper expectations for both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (@GB) this week. They aren’t t QB-proof, and the Rams don’t have a particularly solid backup. If Stafford plays, then start them as usual, and hope that last week’s sub-par performance for both of them was an aberration. [UPDATE - Stafford is NOT expected to play].
Gabe Davis (@CIN) has been balling out recently, but I’m not too excited about him this week, at the Bengals. Just a hunch that he’ll struggle to get open, and that the passing offense will mostly run through Diggs and Kincaid.
The Swiss Army Knife Does it All
TE:
Elite options - Kelce and Andrews; the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Taysom Hill (vs. CHI). Why are the experts ranking Hill as the TE10 this week? What am I missing? I’ve been on Hill for several weeks now and see no reason to step off the carousel. I don’t care that Juwan Johnson is back. I don’t care that Jamaal Williams might return this week. Hill is a qualifying TE who can score for you 3 different ways, he’s in lots of red zone and goal-line packages, and he’s the TE2 over the last 3 weeks, behind only Travis Kelce. Sign me up, again. Maybe this won’t last forever, but get it while it’s hot.
Other Rides:
Dalton Kincaid (@CIN). The big breakout finally happened last week, and my guess is that it’s more of a sign of things to come than an outlier, similar to what we’ve seen with Sam LaPorta so far this season.
Jake Ferguson (@PHI). Last week was his best showing of the season, and in a game where Dallas is going to need to score to keep up, I like Ferguson against a vulnerable Eagles’ defense.
Kyle Pitts (vs. MIN). It’s always risky riding Pitts, who has been very hit or miss (mostly miss) for his entire career so far. But I’m down with the QB change and think it will help the whole offense to be more consistent.
Logan Thomas (@NE). Ride the wave. He’s healthy, he’s good, and his QB is slinging it in shootout after shootout.
David Njoku (vs. ARI). For years the Cardinals couldn't cover TEs to save their lives. So far this year, they’ve been pretty good. Njoku is coming off of his best game of the season and like several others I’ve covered in this column, I think it’s more likely the beginning of more consistent production from a talented player, rather than just a fluke.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Gerald Everett OR Donald Parham (@NYJ). Which one of these players is worth riding depends on whether Everett suits up. The Jets are an awful matchup for WRs, but they’ve struggled mightily against TEs, allowing the third most FPPG and a league-worst 5 TD catches to the position. Herbert will go where the going is easiest. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Everett doesn’t have an injury designation and is expected to play, so he’s the sleeper.]
Other Sleepers:
Tyler Conklin (vs. LAC). I keep waiting for him to become a more significant piece of the Jets’ passing game, and I think it could happen this week, with the Jets potentially opening things up more against a very shaky pass defense.
If you’re desperate, consider: C. Otton (@HOU), and I. Smith (vs. BUF).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Trey McBride (@CLE). This week’s waiver wire darling gets a pass from me. He’ll have better days ahead, but with the QB position in flux (rookie Clayton Tune gets the start, and he’s about to be introduced to Myles Garrett and friends), and Cleveland’s defense on tap, I’m going to look elsewhere. I’ve chased recent performance (which I’m careful about) elsewhere in this column but won’t do it here. The Browns have allowed opposing TEs just 16 receptions for 133 yards in 7 games, and the fewest FPPG.
Other Fades:
Cole Kmet (@NO). See what I wrote above about D.J. Moore. Kmet had an excellent stat line last week (10-79 on 10 targets), but like Moore, he’s mostly suffered since Justin Fields left the lineup. I’ll fade him despite last week’s outburst. The Saints aren’t the Chargers. I’m passing on this entire passing game until Fields returns.
A few more TEs I’m lower on this week: D. Waller (@LV, but I doubt he’ll play), L. Musgrave (vs. LAR), and T. Higbee (@GB). [SATUSDAY UPDATE: Waller is OUT]
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 9 Waiver Wire column: Waiver-wire-week-9 .
Good luck with your Week 9 matchups!
DH
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