Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 8
It’s the 2023 Draft Showcase Bowl in Carolina
(Published October 26, 2023, UPDATED for Weather and Injuries, Sunday October 29, 2023 )
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Welcome to Week 8! The NFL season is flying by, and already approaching its halfway point. In most fantasy leagues, the regular season is at the midpoint. It’s time to start the second half push. I’ll try to help you do that.
There are no Byes this week, after 6 of them last week. Sorry, I can’t explain why that is— you’ll have to ask the NFL. You could also ask them about some of the officiating from last week, while you’ve got them on the line. Anyway, with all 32 teams in action this week, there’s a lot to unpack. So let’s dive in. If you want to get right to this week’s Rides, Fades and Sleepers, skip ahead to the middle of the column.
*****WEEK 8 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: Waiver-wire-week-8 *****
WEEK 7 STATS OF THE WEEK:
Last week’s win over the Bills was Bill Belichick’s 300th regular season victory. The only other Head Coaches with 300 regular season wins are Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318).
Christian McCaffrey has scored a TD in 16 straight games (including playoffs). It’s the longest such streak in NFL history.
CMC now has 13 career games with both a rushing and receiving TD. The only player with more is Marshall Faulk (15).
A.J. Brown has 5 straight games with 125+ receiving yards. That ties Calvin Johnson for the longest such streak in the SB era.
Tyreek Hill has 902 receiving yards through 7 games. The only player in history with more was Charley Hennigan of the Houston Oilers (1,044) in 1961 (AFL).
Patrick Mahomes now has 5 games with 400+ passing yards and 4+ passing TDs, which is tied with Drew Brees for 3rd most all-time. Only Peyton Manning (8) and Dan Marino (7) have more. Mahomes is 28.
Mahomes had 321 yards in the first half against the Chargers.
This was Mahomes’s 10th 400 yard game, in his 87th career game—breaking the “record” of Dan Marino, who needed 90 games to perform the feat.
Travis Kelce had his 5th game with 10+ receptions and150+ receiving yards. No other TE in NFL history has 4 such games.
T.J. Watt had his 7th career INT on Sunday. He joins Lawrence Taylor as the only players with at least 70 sacks and 7 INTs in their first 7 seasons (sacks became an official stat in 1982).
Puka Nacua has 58 catches in his first 7 games—the most all-time for the first 7 games of an NFL career.
In his 10 starts for the Browns, Deshaun Watson has thrown 12 TDs and 9 INTs, and is averaging less than 180 yards passing per game.
No team in the AFC North has a losing record.
Sam Howell has already taken 40 sacks, and is on pace for 97 sacks (if he can somehow manage to stay upright for 17 games). The NFL record for most sacks taken in a season belongs to David Carr (76 sacks in 16 games).
All 3 Raiders QBs that have played this season have thrown more INTs than TDs.
The Raiders have not scored 20 or more points in any of their first 7 games. The last time that happened was 2009 (Washington).
Brian Hoyer has lost 13 consecutive starts, the longest active streak in the NFL.
The Lions trailed 28-0 at the point when they recorded their initial first down against the Ravens.
The Falcons lost 3 red zone fumbles on Sunday, a feat of ineptitude that last was accomplished by the 2004 Cardinals (Week 3). The Falcons still went on to win.
Through 7 games, Brock Purdy has a passer rating of 117.1 in Quarters 1-3, and 71 in the 4th Quarter.
Myles Garrett has the most career sacks (82) before turning age 28 (again, sacks became an official stat in 1982).
On Sunday, Garrett became the first NFL player since at least 2000 to record multiple sacks, multiple forced fumbles, and a blocked kick in the same game.
*****SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER AND INJURY UPDATE*****
Weather Report: There don’t appear to be any major trouble spots. Some rain is likely for NYJ@NYG and JAC@PIT, and gusty winds are likely for NE@MIA. For KC@DEN, temperatures will be in the 20s, with the possibility of light snow.
Injury Report (note: Players on IR are not listed here):
OUT: J. Fields, D. Watson, D. Jones, K. Murray, R. Tannehill, D. Montgomery, D. Samuel, Z. Jones, R. Woods
QUESTIONABLE, but expected to play: T. Lawrence, R. Mostert, T. Lockett, D. Waller, Taysom Hill, G. Everett
QUESTIONABLE: Z. Moss, J. Ford, J. Palmer, C. Samuel, L. Musgrave, D. Carlson
IN (no injury designation): B. Purdy, A. Jones, M. Sanders, K. Hunt, R. Johnson, Z. Charbonnet, T. Dell, C. Watson, JuJu, Juwan Johnson
******
WEEK 8 BYES: NONE
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: MIA (27.75) KC (27.25) LAC (27) DET (26.75) BAL (26.25)
Bottom 5: NYG (17) TEN (17.25) TB (17.25) ARI (17.75) LV (18.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. BUF 3. SF 4. KC 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. LAC 2. WAS 3. DEN 4. JAX 5. ARI
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. NO 3. DET 4. ATL 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. ARI 4. IND 5. GB
Top 5 vs WR: 1. NYJ 2. HOU 3. CLE 4. BAL 5. LAR
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC 2. PIT 3. PHI 4. WAS 5. SEA
Top 5 vs TE: 1. BAL 2. ARI 3. SEA 4. TEN 5. CLE
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. NYJ 2. DET 3. DEN 4. LAR 5. CIN
Week 8 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Chase, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides and Fades had a so-so week in Week 7, with some notable misses, but a number of very good hits to balance them out. You can check my work here: Fantasy-preview-week-7-2 .
Herbert and the Chargers Look to Get Right vs. the Bears
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, and Jackson; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Herbert (vs. CHI). The Bears shut down Brian Hoyer at home last week, and I’m giving that almost no credibility. Hoyer is 38 and hasn’t won a start since Barack Obama was President. Herbert has some questions to answer right now, is down some weapons, and this is a much-needed game for him and his 2-4 team. The Bears should be just what the doctor ordered. Chicago has allowed the 7th most Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) to QBs, and that’s after last week’s strong performance. Herbert should right the ship and put up points. The only concern is whether he’ll need to keep throwing for 4 quarters. It’s the Chargers, so he probably will.
Other Rides:
Jared Goff (vs. LV). The Lions didn’t show up last week (not even a little), but they’re in position for a nice bounceback against a Raiders team that’s struggling on both sides of the ball. They’ll want to get back on track quickly, so look for a strong and purposeful effort from Detroit. Vegas has been a fairly neutral matchup for QBs, but home Jared should be just fine.
C.J. Stroud (@CAR). This game will feature the top 2 picks from the 2023 draft, and like most observers, I expect Stroud to be the one who’ll come out on top, and put up better stats. The Panthers have been a favorable matchup for QBs, and Stroud has been playing great football. He should have Tank Dell back as well. I like him for a Top 10 QB finish this week.
Kirk Cousins (@GB) and Jordan Love (vs. MIN) are both ranked outside the Top 12 this week, but I think both could produce QB1 numbers in this division game that’s important for both teams. Love has been bad the last couple of weeks, so I’m not all that confident. Still, he’s got rushing upside, was putting up great fantasy numbers early in the season, and the Vikings’ secondary is beatable. He’s another good bounceback candidate. You can’t always fall prey to recency bias and I still think Love can produce fantasy points.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Derek Carr (@IND). He’s ranked outside the Top 20 this week and that’s too low for me. I know his check-down artistry has been frustrating (unless Kamara is on your roster), but I think better days are ahead as he continues to get healthier. Maybe he won’t yell at any of his WRs this week, and will hit them in-bounds. The Colts have been getting into shootouts and are not a scary Halloween matchup.
Other Sleepers:
With all 32 teams playing, this is a week where fantasy managers shouldn’t have to scrape the barrel. Go with your top guy. But if you’re in need in a Superflex, or want a really cheap option in DFS, here are the lower-end QBs (those ranked 18 and down this week) I’d be most comfortable streaming, in this order: D. Ridder (@TEN), M. Jones (@MIA), and T. Bagent (@LAC).
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Russell Wilson (vs. KC). This call hit 2 weeks ago when these teams last played, so let’s go ahead and run it back. Why not? Wilson is ranked as the QB12 this week and I can’t understand why that is. The Chiefs are hitting their stride, and their underrated defense has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs. Could there be garbage time stats? Absolutely, but I hate banking on that for fantasy production.
Other Fades:
I’m nervous about starting Matt Stafford at the Cowboys. He’s been decidedly mediocre and remarkably consistent at the same time (amazingly, he has scored between 13.2 and 17.2 fantasy points every single week so far this season). So you know what you’re getting, unlike with most QBs. Against the Dallas defense (5th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs, and a very good pass rush), I expect the lower end of that range.
Geno Smith (vs. CLE) is a stay-away for me this week. The Browns’ defense is no joke, and while they got victimized by Gardner Minshew last week, they’re still a Top 10 pass defense. D.K. Metcalf may return this week, which would be a plus, but Geno isn’t putting up the kind of numbers he did last year. He hasn’t topped 16.5 fantasy points in a game since Week 2.
Superflexers—Here are some QB2s I’d especially try to avoid this week (and I won’t give you the most obvious ones, who nobody is starting): B. Mayfield (@BUF), J. Dobbs (vs. BAL), and T. Taylor (vs. Jets).
Kamara: PPR Monster
RB:
Elite options - CMC, Etienne, and Ekeler; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Alvin Kamara (@IND). Boy was I wrong about Kamara this year. I was worried about Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, and Taysom Hill all competing for carries and targets and especially in the red zone. Right now, Kamara is getting the kind of usage and target share that fantasy managers dream about. 12 for 91 is a nice stat line for an RB—that was his receiving line last week, not his rushing line! He also had 17 carries. Kamara has 35 catches in just 4 games played. That’s not a misprint. He does still get vultured a bit, but right now, he’s got as safe of a floor as any RB not named CMC. And this week’s opponent is eminently gettable (4th most FPPG allowed to RBs, and 10 rushing TDs yielded to the position).
Other Rides:
Isiah Pacheco (@DEN). Insert starting RB going up against the Broncos, who’ve allowed the most FPPG and rushing yards, and the second most receiving yards, to RBs on the season. The Broncos held him in check 2 weeks ago, but I think he’ll give you what you’re looking for this time around.
Here are 4 RBs ranked from RB10 to RB25 this week who I think have a good shot at a Top 12 week: R. Mostert (vs. NE), J. Gibbs (vs. LV), D. Foreman (@LAC), and G. Edwards (@AZ, and yes it’ s a bit of a risk that he gives up more work to J. Hill).
Dameon Pierce (@CAR) has been a disappointment this season, but I think you can confidently start him as your RB2 or flex against the Panthers. They’ve allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs, and the most rushing TDs (11) on the season. There’s a reason this team is 0-6.
RB Sleeper of the Week: Rachaad White (@BUF). Speaking of disappointing backs, I think White will have his best game since he faced the Bears in Week 2. Tampa has faced a gamut of stout run defenses since that game, but the Bills aren’t that. They haven’t been the same since Matt Milano went down, and he was their best cover LB. White saw very encouraging usage in the passing game last week and I think that’ll be his ticket to a worthwhile performance again this week.
Other Sleepers:
Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked all the way down at RB24 this week. That’s too low in my opinion. He’s easily an RB2 for me, even with Zeke taking more work.
If you’re in need, here are some plug-ins at RB that I think can give you double digit fantasy points this week: J. Warren (vs. JAC), E. Elliott (@MIA), R. Johnson (@LAC), K. Hunt (@SEA), and C. Hubbard (vs. HOU).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Bijan Robinson (@TEN). I have no idea what happened last week, and maybe his workload goes back to his normal share this week, but I’m concerned enough to list Bijan here. I guess you have to start him if you have him, and the normally stout Titans’ run defense was abused by the Ravens in their last game, but I’d be nervous about him as my RB1 this week.
Other Fades:
Brian Robinson (vs. PHI). And here’s to you, the other Mr. Robinson (my older readers will get that). Yes, he scored vs. Philly in Week 4, but he’s become very TD-dependent in a shared backfield, and I don’t want to count on a TD against a nasty run defense that's allowed the fewest FPPG, rushing yards and total yards to RBs this season (and just 2 total TDs to the position).
Darrell Henderson (@DAL). I was all over Hendo last week. I picked him up in my 2 main leagues on Saturday and enjoyed the snap share, workload, and TD. He was high on my sleepers list for Week 7. But I’ll reverse course and fade him this week, at Dallas (7th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) and with multiple backs still in the mix.
More Fades: Jav. Williams (vs. KC), N. Harris (vs. JAC) and Z. Moss (vs. NO).
It’s Official: A.J. Brown Joins the Elite WRs
WR:
Elite options - Hill, Chase, Diggs, Kupp, and A.J. Brown; the analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. LV). He’s due for a big game, and while the Raiders have been OK vs. the pass, I can see the dam breaking this week as the Lions will be looking to put a hurt on someone after getting thoroughly embarrassed last week. My one concern is the potential for a blowout, where the Lions stop throwing.
Other Rides:
I’ll put some chips on D.J. Moore, even with Justin Fields likely to miss another game. I don’t think the ceiling is that high, but I do know one thing for sure: The Chargers’ pass defense is atrocious, and it’s been that way all year. They’ve allowed the most FPPG to WRs and have been torched by the really good ones. Enter Moore, who is ranked outside the Top 24 WRs this week (Say What?). I’ll bet on the matchup, and especially with the Bears likely playing catch-up.
I can’t quit 33 year old Adam Thielen (vs. HOU), who very quietly is the WR7 on a points per game basis, or rookie Puka Nacua (@DAL), who leads the NFL in targets, regardless of the opponent. Both Texas teams are unfavorable matchups, but I don’t care that much. Follow the volume.
4 WRs who are ranked in the lower teens this week and who I think can sniff WR1 territory (Top 12) are C. Kirk (@PIT), N. Collins (@CAR), C. Olave (@IND), and Z. Flowers (@ARI).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Drake London (@TEN). I’ve faded London a bunch of times this season, to mixed results. Consistency hasn't really been a thing for the Atlanta passing game and its top weapons. So you’re always taking a risk with this unit. But I like the matchup this week, vs. a Titans’ defense that’s in the bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to WRs, and that just traded away the best player in its secondary.
Other Sleepers:
May I present the 4 WRs ranked 37-40 this week? I like all of them as upside WR3 or Flex plays, if you need them: D. Johnson (vs. JAC), J. Palmer (vs. CHI), R. Rice (@DEN), and J. Downs (vs. NO).
Need to go deeper than that? How about T. Dell (@CAR), R. Doubs (vs. MIN), K. Bourne (@MIA), and R. Shaheed (@IND). I think you can roll with any of them if you need a plug-in.
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Amari Cooper (@SEA). I’ve got Cooper on both of my 2 main fantasy teams and I’m not even thinking about starting him until either a healthy Deshaun Watson is under center, or another QB shows he can get him the ball with some consistency. Cooper was a Fade in last week’s column, and he didn’t even appear in the box score until the 4th Quarter. Pass.
Other Fades:
Jerry Jeudy is very often a Fade for me, going back to last season and the one before, and this week is no exception. I just don’t believe in the talent, and think he’s almost always over-ranked. The Chiefs should be able to handle him, again. They’re a Top-10 unit vs. WRs, and Jeudy will also have the distraction of this possibly being his last game in Denver.
Marquise Brown (@BAL). It’s a revenge game for Hollywood, but he hasn’t topped 7 fantasy points in the last 2 games and the Cards’ offense has started to resemble what we expected from the start. The Ravens have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to WRs and their defense has been trending up in recent weeks. Pass.
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. ATL). Will Levis makes his NFL debut and while he’d be smart to lean heavily on the veteran Hopkins, the uncertainty makes me pretty scared to go here. Plus it’s a tough matchup, as the Falcons have allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to WRs.
Giants WRs. There isn’t really a WR you can trust in this unit and I think the successful passing volume will move mostly through Waller and Barkley. The Jets have allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs, and just 1 TD catch to a receiver.
Waller’s TD in Week 7 was the First in a Month for the Big Blue Offense
TE:
Elite options - Kelce, Andrews and Hockenson; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Darren Waller (vs. NYJ). I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick, but after the top 3 tight ends, it’s hard to have too much confidence in anyone. Waller is coming off of his best game of the season (7-98-1), and he has at least 7 targets in his last 3 games. It looks like the Giants are finally (and wisely) starting to run the passing offense through him. As good as the Jets’ defense is, they’ve struggled with TEs and have yielded the most FPPG and TDs (5) to the position on the year.
Other Rides:
Dallas Goedert (@ WAS). He’s a fairly obvious name, and he’s ranked inside the Top 10 this week as he should be. I like him to sniff the Top 5 at the position this week. After a slow start to the season, he’s topped 15 fantasy points in 2 of the last 3 games, and the Commanders don’t defend the position well (6th most FPPG allowed). Goedert is rounding into the fantasy weapon we expected.
Dalton Schultz (@CAR). His usage and production was trending upwards before the Week 7 Bye, with 17 targets over the last 2 contests and a TD in each of his last 3 games. My one concern is Tank Dell’s return and how that could impact his targets. Still, I feel pretty good about Schultz this week.
Jake Ferguson (vs. LAR). I keep waiting for Ferguson to show up more consistently in the box score. Maybe this is the week. The Rams are a tough matchup for WRs (5th fewest FPPG allowed), but not so much for TEs (4th most FPPG allowed). The Cowboys have heavily involved their TEs in recent years. It’s coming.
Taysom Hill (@JAC). I’m a bit worried about how Juwan Johnson’s potential return could impact Hill, who has at least 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, and is doing very good things as a pass-catching TE (a new role for the multi-talented Hill). He’s always a threat to score a rushing TD or throw a TD pass, and that makes him intriguing in any case.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Tyler Conklin (@NYG). Am I calling for a big TE battle in the Medowlands? Yes, I am! Conklin’s usage and productivity has been trending up, and I can see Zach Wilson looking his way a decent amount on Sunday. I’ll be at this game and will report back.
Other Sleepers:
Donald Parham (vs. CHI). He’s a fairly obvious sleeper choice this week, with Gerald Everett possibly limited by a hip injury. Parham is pretty TD-dependent, so know what you’re buying into if you start him.
If you’re scraping the bottom of the TE barrel this week, consider: M. Mayer (@DET), T. McBride (vs. BAL), and L. Musgrave (vs. MIN, if he plays).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Evan Engram (@PIT). If you’ve got Engram, you probably don’t have a better option, and he hasn’t been terrible. But he has yet to score a TD, and the Steelers defend TEs better than they defend WRs (6th fewest FPPG allowed to TEs). I had real trouble finding a Top 10 TE to fade this week, and settled upon Engram. To be clear, I’d play him over all of the streaming-level TEs.
Other Fades:
David Njoku (@SEA). He’s a good player, but the QB position is unsettled and the production just isn’t there. Also, the Seahawks have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to TEs (and zero TDs). Don’t drop him, but don’t start him either.
Cole Kmet (@LAC). It’s a decent matchup, but Kmet has pretty much disappeared since Justin Fields got hurt.
Logan Thomas (vs. PHI). The Eagles just added Kevin Byard, and they defended Thomas pretty well in the earlier game (3 catches for 41 yards). I think he’ll be just OK this week.
Tyler Higbee (@DAL). I had high hopes for Higbee this season. I didn’t see Puka and Atwell coming on, of course. Few did. We’re now up to 3 straight games with 2 or fewer catches, for less than 20 yards. Odd coincidence - Cooper Kupp has been back for 3 games. OK, not so odd. Higbee is probably someone you can safely drop at this point.
PK and D/ST Streaming Options: See Week 8 Waiver Wire column: Waiver-wire-week-8
Good luck to all in Week 8!
DH
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