Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 7
The League’s Top 2 Offenses Will Battle in Philly
(Published October 19, 2023, updated for weather and injuries, Saturday, October 21, 2023 @noon )
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Welcome to Week 7! I could’ve said “welcome to what could be your lowest scoring week of the season” instead, but who would read the column after that? Six teams are on Bye this week, and the injuries keep piling up. I’ll try to help you field a passable lineup, so definitely keep on reading!
*****WEEK 7 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-7 *****
WEEK 6 STATS OF THE WEEK:
The Browns’ defense has allowed just 1,002 yards through 5 games. That’s the lowest total in more than 50 years (1971 Baltimore Colts).
Denver is 6-17 since trading a massive haul of picks for Russell Wilson.
The Lions are 13-3 over their last 16 games. It’s the best 16 game stretch for the franchise in the last 60 years.
On Thursday night, Travis Kelce had more yards in the first half (109) than Denver’s entire offense (94).
Kelce now has 23 career games with 120+ receiving yards. The only TE with more is Tony Gonzalez.
The Patriot’s loss to the Raiders on Sunday was the 500th career game coached by Bill Belichick (including playoffs). The only Head Coaches with more than 500 games coached are Don Shula (526) and George Halas (509).
The Jets beat the Eagles for the first time in their history (0-12 before this past Sunday).
The Giants’ offense has not scored a TD in 3 straight games.
Including this season (to this point), Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens in rushing for 5 straight seasons.
The Chargers have lost 6 games by 3 points or fewer since the start of the 2022 season. Only Denver (7) has more in that time span.
A.J. Brown has 4 straight games with 125+ receiving yards. The longest such streak during the Super Bowl era belongs to Calvin Johnson (5).
Tyreek Hill is on pace for more than 2,300 yards on the season.
Hill’s 803 receiving yards through 6 games is the most in the SB era.
Miami has both the must rushing TDs (15) and passing TDs (also 15) in the league.
The Dolphins are the only NFL team averaging more than 150 rushing yards per game (182). They’re ALSO the only NFL team averaging more than 300 passing yards per game (317).
One more: The Dolphins currently lead the NFL in total offense with 498.7 yards per game. The Eagles rank second at 395 yards per game, a differential of more than 100. No team has ever led the NFL in offense (for a full season) by more than 90 yards per game. Miami plays at Philadelphia this week, and their starting QBs will be forever intertwined from their days at Alabama.
CMC has scored a TD in 15 straight games (including playoffs). He is tied with John RIggins for the longest such streak in NFL history.
Saints games have gone under the total 12 straight times, which is the second longest streak in the SB era (1979-80 Bills, 13 straight).
The unders are hitting at a 62% clip through Week 6.
The Steelers are averaging just 10 offensive plays and 30 yards in the first quarter this season, both league lows.
WEEK 7 BYES: CAR Panthers, CIN Bengals, DAL Cowboys, HOU Texans, NY Jets, TEN Titans
Saturday Weather and Injury Update
Weather Report: As of now, there don’t appear to be any really bad trouble spots. Three games have sustained winds of around 15-20 mph forecasted: WAS@NYG, DET@BAL, and BUF@NE.
Injury Report: NOTE - players on IR are not listed here.
OUT: J. Fields, Jimmy G., K. Williams, D. Montgomery, R. Johnson, D. Harris, J. Watson, P. Freiermuth, G. Dulcich
IN (will play): J. Gibbs, J. Wilson, D. Johnson, D. Kincaid
QUESTIONABLE:
QB: D. Watson, D. Jones (not expected to play)
RB: C. McCaffrey (MNF), D. Montgomery, A. Jones, C. Reynolds, K. Hunt, Z. Charbonnet
WR: D. Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, C. Olave, T. Dell
TE: H. Henry
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: KC (27.25) PHI (26.5) SEA (26.25) MIA (25.5) SF (25.25)
Bottom 5: NE (16.25) CHI (17.25) ARI (17.75) ATL (17.75) JAX (18.25)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BAL 2. BUF 3. SF 4. CLE 5. NE
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. LAC 3. WAS 4. CHI 5. ARI
Top 5 vs RB: 1. DET 2. PHI 3. NO 4. TB 5. KC
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. ARI 4. NYG 5. GB
Top 5 vs WR: 1. CLE 2. NYJ 3. HOU 4. LAR 5. BAL
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC 2. WAS 3. SEA 4. PHI 5. PIT
Top 5 vs TE: 1. BAL 2. ARI 3. BUF 4. SF 5. TB
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. NYJ 2. DEN 3. LAR 4. CIN 5. DAL
Week 7 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
My calls were all over the map in Week 6, but overall, there was more good than bad, and the predictions have been very solid over the last 4 weeks. You can check my work here: fantasy-preview-week-6 . Ok, on to WEEK 7:
Geno Should Rebound Against the Cards
QB: With 6 teams on Bye, and multiple QBs iffy this week (see above), there aren’t that many quality QBs to choose from this week and especially for Superflex leagues.
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Geno Smith (vs. ARI). Geno hasn’t had a really big game yet this year, but this week sets up for him to rebound from a very shaky start in Cincinnati last week. The Cardinals have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, and are starting to look like the bad team that was widely forecasted after a better-than-expected start. Seattle should have plenty of ground success as well (Ken Walker is ranked as the #1 RB for the week), but I still like Geno for a Top 8 finish in what is likely to be another down week overall for QBs.
Other Rides:
Matthew Stafford (vs. PIT). The Steelers DBs have struggled all year, and I don’t see them containing the Rams’ talented WRs. Stafford concentrates his targets to Kupp, Nacua, and Atwell and should be in for a nice day against a defense that’s allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs.
Brock Purdy (@MIN). I’m definitely concerned about the possible absences of CMC and Deebo, but even if they can’t suit up, I expect Purdy to bounce back from last week’s sub-par performance indoors against a much easier defense. The Vikings’ season is slipping away, and they’ve struggled vs the pass all year (8th most FPPG to QBs). Mr. Irrelevant is a nice start this week.
Jordan Love (@DEN). OK, what gives? This is another QB coming off of a bad game, although in Love’s case he had an entire bye week to think about it. The Packers are playing Denver, and I don’t think I need to say much more than that. The Broncos played better against Mahomes and the Chiefs, but they’ve still allowed the most FPPG and TD passes (14) to opposing QBs. The return of Aaron Jones also helps.
Jared Goff (@BAL). This is a lower confidence call, as I’m a bit surprised to be typing this name at the Ravens. Well, Goff showed last week at Tampa Bay that he can get it done on the road against a good defense. Detroit is for real, and so is Goff, who is a lot better than he’s given credit for. I’m not expecting a huge game, but given the landscape this week, he’s a Top 10 option.
QB Sleeper of the Week:
Daniel Jones (vs. WAS). No, I haven’t lost my mind. The Giants’ offense hasn't scored a TD in 3 weeks, and Jones (IF he starts) will be coming off a missed game due to a neck injury, so what am I smoking? The Commanders have been victimized by Jones in the past, the Giants’ offense keeps getting more key pieces back each week, and I think this is a wake-up game for Big Blue. The Commanders have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to QBs. If Jones can’t go, Tyrod Taylor is a sleeper to consider if you’re stuck.
Other Sleepers:
It’s slim picking this week for those of you in Superflex leagues. Here are some players I’d consider rolling out as QB2s, if you’re in need: D. Carr (vs. JAC), B. Hoyer (@CHI), J. Dobbs (@SEA), and B. Mayfield (vs. ATL).
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Russell Wilson (vs. GB). I’m running back my QB Fade of the Week from Week 6. Let’s see if it’s again a winning ticket. The danger here is a lot of garbage time for Russ, but I don’t see the Packers’ defense allowing too much of that, or Green Bay running away and hiding in this game. Russ has had good fantasy production this year (other than last week, thank you very much), but the play hasn’t been crisp and the Packers will make you pay if you’re sloppy. I’m staying away again this week.
Other Fades:
Trevor Lawrence (@NO). Trevor has been a fade multiple times this year and it’s a call that’s been hitting. For this week, the red flags are everywhere. He has an injured knee, it’s a short week, the Jags have struggled with consistency through the air (Lawrence has yet to exceed 20 fantasy points in a game this season), and the Saints are a nasty defense that doesn’t allow a lot of points. They’ve allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to QBs, and I don’t like this spot for Lawrence if he gets the start.
Kirk Cousins (vs. SF). I’ve got a bad feeling about this one. The 49ers are coming in bruised and angry and their swarming defense can make life miserable for opposing QBs. They lead the NFL with 10 picks, and have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to the position. Cousins is without his top weapon and the Vikings’ season is falling apart. Plus he has trade rumors swirling around him. Is that enough of an explanation for why I’m fading Kirk this week?
I know it’s a tough fantasy football world out there for Week 7, but avoid these QB2s if you can (and I’m leaving out the no-brainers like Mac Jones): G. Minshew (vs. CLE), K. Pickett (@LAR), and D. Ridder (@TB).
Captain Obvious Says: Play Your Packers at Denver
RB:
Elite options - CMC (if he plays), Kenneth Walker, and Austin Ekeler; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Aaron Jones (@Den, and assuming he plays). I never feel that confident about the first game back for an RB who is returning from a leg injury, but the Packers are coming off a Bye and all reports are that Jones is good to go. And go he will, against a porous Broncos’ defense that’s allowed the most FPPG to RBs. They did manage to keep Isiah Pacheco mostly in check last week (no pun intended), but the dynamic Jones should find plenty of success as he sparks the Green Bay offense back to life.
Other Rides:
Jerome Ford (@IND). I can see the Browns continuing with the formula they employed to beat the 49ers last week: Rely on a smothering defense to keep it close, and pound the ball on offense. This is especially true if they’re again playing a backup QB. Ford is coming off a nice game against the stout 49ers’ D (17-84, plus 2 receptions), and the sledding should be easier against a Colts’ defense that just got gashed by Travis Etienne for 100+ yards and 2 scores a week ago. Kareem Hunt will share (and makes for a decent sleeper this week, IF he plays), but Ford should continue to get the majority of the work.
D’Andre Swift (vs. MIA). Did you see what Chuba Hubbard did against Miami last week, in a loss? So did I. This should be a very high scoring game, with plenty to go around for the main cogs in the Philadelphia offense.
Brian Robinson, Jr. (@NYG) and Saquon Barkley (vs. WAS). I think both starting running backs in this game make for nice fantasy starts this week. The Giants have allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs, and on the flip side, they need to start relying more on Barkley, who returned last week after a 3 week absence due to a sprained ankle and should be closer to 100%.
Here are some RB2s (ranked between 13 and 24) who I think you can ride with some confidence this week: Jav. Williams (vs. GB), R. Stevenson (vs. BUF), R. Johnson (vs. LV), and J. Gibbs (@BAL).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Zach Evans (vs. PIT) [SEE UPDATE BELOW]. It’s hard to know what to expect from the Rams’ backfield this week, after losing their top 2 RBs to injury a week ago. Evans is the only RB in the group who was on the active roster last week, which gives him a leg up on Freeman, Henderson, and Gaskin, and I think the coaching staff will continue to rely mostly on one guy. The rookie should find some success against a Pittsburgh defense that’s vulnerable to the run, and has allowed the 8th most FPPG to RBs. [SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE - Reports out of L.A. suggest that Evans will be serving as the backup to Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson. Myles Gaskin could also be in the mix. It’s probably best to avoid the Rams backfield this week, but if you’re stuck this week (as I am in my main league), I’d roll with Henderson, who knows the system and who they trust in pass protection. You’ll be rolling with me on that one!
Other Sleepers:
Kareem Hunt (@IND, assuming he plays). See above.
Elijah Mitchell (@MIN). I’m guessing the 49ers will sit CMC this week, and of the 3 RBs who are likely to see work, I like Mitchell to lead the pack in usage, as he’s had the role before and is finally healthy. This offense schemes it well for RBs, and Mitchell should benefit from that.
Jaylen Warren (@LAR). I wonder if the Steelers used their bye week to figure out who their best RB is. Probably not. Anyway, Warren has had more Full PPR points than Najee in all 5 games so far this year, and continues to be the better play. With so many teams on Bye, Warren makes for an OK RB2 or Flex play this week.
I’ll say it again—6 teams are on a bye. You need names. If you’re desperate, here are some more backup RBs who you might be able to get some points from this week, and I like them in this order (in other words, from least desperate to most desperate): C. Reynolds (@BAL), D. Foreman (vs. LV), A.J. Dillon (@DEN), J. Mason (@MIN), K. Gainwell (vs. MIA), and Z. Charbonnet (vs. ARI, if he plays).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Najee Harris (@LAR). This isn’t his first trip to this spot in my column. But if the “experts” keep putting him in the top 24 RBs each week, I’ll keep putting him here. He’s the RB42 on the season, has only topped 7 fantasy points in a game once, and hasn’t topped 12 fantasy points in a single game. Wake up, folks. He’s the bust of the season.
Other Fades:
Rachaad White (vs. ATL). The Bucs have really struggled to move the ball on the ground, whether it’s White or his backups. And White isn’t getting the receiving volume that was forecasted. I don’t see that changing against the Falcons, who are a top 10 run defense so far on the season.
Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss (vs. CLE). I don’t know what the backfield split will be this week, but I do know that the Colts are facing the Browns, who’ve allowed just one rushing TD on the season, and the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs.
You’re starting Travis Etienne (@NO) this week. He’s a stud and he’ll get the work. But temper expectations a bit. The Saints’ Run D is no joke. They’ve allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs, and are the only defense that hasn’t allowed a TD to a running back (rushing or receiving) on the season.
Keep your BAL RBs in the garage this week. If the Saints’ Run D is no joke, then Detroit’s is deadly serious. In addition to allowing the fewest FPPG to RBs, they’re allowing less than 50 yards rushing per game to opposing RB groups on the season, and no single RB has put up more than 50 yards on the ground against them.
Miami Is Hoping For More of This in Philly
WR:
Elite options - Chase, Hill, Diggs, Kupp, and Adams; the analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: A.J. Brown (vs. MIA). Maybe Brown should be in the elite group at this point. He’s got 4 straight games with at least 125 receiving yards. Miami has been a pretty middling pass defense and they’re likely to be without Xavien Howard this week. Throw in that this game has shootout potential and Brown is a top 3 play.
Other Rides:
Tyler Lockett (vs. ARI). Lockett’s history against the Cardinals is an impressive one. He’s played against them 16 times and has this line: 63-881-9. That’s good enough for me, and especially with D.K. Metcalf banged up.
Jaylen Waddle (@PHI). Waddle has flown under the radar so far this season with Tyreek Hill putting up all-world numbers. Waddle has scored in back-to-back games and had a season high 7 catches and 9 targets last week. Miami will need every point that its explosive can get against Philly. The good news? The Eagles’ banged-up pass defense has been very generous, allowing the 4th most FPPG to WRs and 8 TD catches to WRs. I like Waddle to put up his best stat line of the year (so far).
Puka Nacua is coming off a season-low output for both catches (4) and yards (26). I see him bouncing back on Sunday against the Steelers, who play a lot of zone (which he has destroyed all year), and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs. Kupp will get his, but so will Puka.
Moving into WR2 territory (WR13-24 in the weekly rankings), in addition to Lockett, give me Z. Flowers (vs. DET), C. Watson (@DEN), and J. Meyers (@CHI), all in plus matchups.
WR Sleeper of the Week: Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. WAS). I’ll let you in on a secret: The Big Blue offense is going to wake up this week, and score some TDs. I don’t know if Wan’Dale will get one, but I do know he’s coming off of season highs in targets (8) and catches (8), and that they’re scheming to get him the ball in space. I expect more of that this week, and think Robinson will soon be a name you can plug in at WR3 or Flex with little hesitation. Get in early.
Other Sleepers:
Curtis Samuel (@NYG). Same game, same idea. Samuel seems to be Sam Howell’s favorite target when the Commanders get close to the end zone, and that’s fine. He’s scored a TD in 2 straight games, and to repeat a refrain, with so many teams on Bye, you could do worse this week.
Rashee Rice (vs. LAC). It’s hard to trust any WR on KC, as none of them are seeing the kind of route or target volume you’d want for fantasy purposes. But the rookie appears to be emerging at least a little, and he found the end zone last week. The Chargers have been awful at defending WRs all season and sit dead last in FPPG allowed to the position, and this game has shootout potential. Enjoy the tasty matchup.
Romeo Doubs (@DEN). Another secret: Start your Packers this week. the Broncos have allowed a lot of fantasy points to every position, and that includes WR.
I’ll do what I did for the WRs. You need names, so here are more players from down in the rankings (WR35 and lower) who you can roll the dice with this week if you’re in need (again, in order of least to most desperate): J. Jeudy (vs. GB), N. Agholor (vs. DET), J. Reynolds (@BAL), R. Shaheed (vs. JAC), and M. Wilson (@SEA).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Calvin Ridley (@NO). Should you sit Ridley? Of course not and especially in a week like this where benches are thin. But I am a little nervous about him. He’s become somewhat TD-dependent, and hasn’t emerged as the WR1 that many predicted (not me of course, he was featured in my Players to Avoid at ADP). He hasn’t surpassed 15 fantasy points in a game since Week 1, and actually trails teammate Christian Kirk in fantasy points on the season (which I also predicted—hey, I need to take victory laps where I can). I don’t love the matchup with the stingy Saints, and especially with his QB not at 100%.
Other Fades:
Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. CLE). Gardner Minshew threw 55 passes last week (playing catch-up), so maybe Pittman sees enough volume to cobble together a decent day, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The Browns are a no-fly zone this year. They’ve allowed BY FAR the fewest catches, yards and FPPG to opposing WRs, and just one TD. It’s a brutal matchup, and one to avoid. Pass.
George Pickens (@LAR). The Rams have been surprisingly stingy to WRs this year (4th fewest FPPG allowed), and with D. Johnson and P. Freiermuth both potentially returning, I don’t trust the volume.
More Fades: J. Dotson (@NYG), J. Palmer (@KC), K.J. Osborn (vs. SF) and C. Sutton (vs. GB)
Can Kittle Step Up for the Banged-Up 49ers?
TE:
Elite option - Kelce and Andrews; the analysis starts below them.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: George Kittle (@MIN). Kittle has been very boom-or-bust this year (and other years) and his big games are famously hard to predict. But I’ll predict one this week. With the 49ers likely without CMC and possibly without Deebo, Kittle has an opportunity for more target volume. The Vikings have allowed 3 TE scores in 6 games, and I think that number is about to go up.
Other Rides:
Luke Musgrave (@DEN). I realize that not EVERY Packer can have a good week at the same time, so I guess I’m hedging my bets by recommending all of them. I do think you want as much of this offense as you can get against Denver, and that includes the promising rookie TE.
Other Top 15 TEs (using this week’s consensus expert rankings) who I think can give you a decent stat line this week: C. Kmet (vs. LV), D. Waller (vs. WAS), L. Thomas (@NYG) and dammit, I’ll say it, K. Pitts (@TB).
TE Sleeper of the Week: Michael Mayer (@CHI). We don’t know who the starting QB will be, and before last week no team concentrated its target tree onto 3 players more than the Raiders did. But the rookie is starting to emerge and the Bears are bottom 10 vs. the position. I’m in.
Other Sleepers:
Taysom Hill (vs. JAC). One of the biggest surprises of Week 6 was Taysom Hill running routes and catching passes. Maybe he did that just so he’d be eligible at TE again next season. He made the most of it, hauling in 7 catches for 49 yards on 8 targets. I’ll chase performance and roll the dice this week.
TE Sleepers are hard to find. You’re basically just hoping for a TD. Here are a few more desperation options for you: C. Otton (vs. ATL), G. Everett (@KC), and D. Knox (vs. NE).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Sam LaPorta (@BAL). Look, anyone can give you a mediocre TE as a Fade of the Week. It takes guts to put in a Top 5 TE as one. Yes, start Big Sam if he’s your TE1. BUT, temper expectations. The Ravens have been the toughest matchup for opposing TEs, with the fewest catches, yards, and FPPG allowed, to go along with 0 TDs yielded to the position. And I think they’ll focus on containing the rookie.
Other Fades:
Tyler Higbee (vs. PIT). Higbee has all but disappeared from the Rams’ offense, with just 2 catches for 20 yards or less each of the past 2 weeks. His production is very tough to trust at the moment.
Hunter Henry (@BUF, if he plays) and Zach Ertz (@SEA) are both facing rough matchups this week, against defenses that sit a little behind the Ravens in fewest FPPG allowed to the position and that haven’t allowed a TE to score. They’re also both on struggling offenses. Fade ‘em.
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 7 Waiver Wire column: waiver-wire-week-7 .
It’s a tough week to navigate, but you can do it! Good luck to all in Week 7.
DH
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