Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 6
D.J. and Fields Erupt—The Bears’ Hibernation is Over
(Published October 11, 2023, UPDATED FOR INJURIES AND WEATHER, Sunday morning, October 14, 2023)
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Welcome to Week 6! The 2023 season is cruising along. Week 5 was costly from a fantasy perspective as several prominent players went down with injuries and found themselves placed on IR. We won’t be seeing Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, Anthony Richardson, or James Conner for at least 4 weeks. Additionally, Travis Kelce, Khalil Herbert, Tank Dell and several others suffered injuries that could force them to miss games. All those injuries, plus bye weeks, can make fantasy managers scramble. I’ll try to help.
On the plus side, the Bengals erupted and appear to have finally started their season (better late than never), and for the second straight year, Justin Fields is emerging as a Top 5 QB after a very slow start that had people wondering if he could play QB in the NFL. Will those trends continue? We’ll see, starting this week. So let’s get to it!
********** WEEK 6 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: waiver-wire-week-6 **********
Week 5 Stats of the Week (the first 3 stats may look familiar, from last week):
The 49ers have won 15 regular season games in a row.
The 49ers have scored at least 30 points in every game this season.
Brock Purdy has won all 10 of his regular season starts.
Christian McCaffrey has scored at least one TD in 14 straight games.
Purdy is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to go 5-0 in his first 5 starts in each of his first 2 seasons.
Ja’Marr Chase had his second career game with 10+ catches, 150+ yards and 3+ TDs. The only player with more 10-150-3 receiving games in a career is Jerry Rice (3).
C.J. Stroud has set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to start a career (186, and counting—Dak Prescott had the previous record at 176).
The only 2 QBs who’ve started all of their team’s games and haven’t thrown a pick are Stroud and Purdy.
De’Von Achane is the first player in the Super Bowl era, and only the second all-time, to score 7 TDs in his first 4 career games. Achane only had one carry in his first NFL game, and scored all 7 of those TDs in his most recent 3 games.
Achane has 2 rushing TDs of 60+ yards, which is tied for the most in Dolphins’ history. Achane has essentially played 3 games.
Acording to NextGen Stats, the top 7 ball carrier speeds clocked this year have all been members of the Dolphins (3 each for Achane and Tyreek Hill, one for Raheem Mostert).
The Dolphins have the most total yards through 5 games (2,568) in NFL history.
DeAndre Hopkins has had a 100-yard receiving game with 11 different QBs in his 11 NFL seasons. The only players to do so with more QBs in a career are Joey Galloway and DeSean Jackson (12 each).
D.J. Moore already has more receiving yards this season (531) than any Chicago receiver had last year.
Aidan Hutchinson is the third player to have 10+ sacks and 4+ INTs in his first 2 seasons (B. Urlacher, S. Leonard). Sacks became an official stat in 1982.
The Lions are 4-1. This is just the 4th time in the last 50 years that Detroit has started a season 4-1 or better.
Just one week after suffering the single worst defeat of his head coaching career (38-3), Bill Belichick suffered his second worst defeat (34-0).
Let’s all do the math together: Over their last 2 games, the Patriots have been outscored 72-3.
On Monday night, the opposing kickers were brothers Daniel and Anders Carlson. The last time a pair of brothers kicked against each other in an NFL game was in 1987 (Chris Bahr and Matt Bahr). The Carlsons are the 6th pair of brothers to kick in the NFL at the same time.
The Giants have not scored an offensive TD in the first half.
The Giants have not run a single offensive play this season while holding a lead.
The Steelers are 3-2, despite having only 70 first downs and 6 offensive TDs in 5 games.
WEEK 6 BYES: Green Bay and Pittsburgh
*****SUNDAY MORNING INJURY AND WEATHER UPDATE*****
Weather Report: Weather can matter in fantasy, and especially for kickers and QBs if it gets really bad. The potential trouble spots today:
MIN@CHI, SFO@CLE, and NYG@BUF - the current forecast for all 3 of these games is breezy, with a chance for rain. CHI appears to be the worst spot, with sustained winds of 20 MPH and gusts to 30, and the highest chance for rain. The other 2 games could have lingering showers and some wind, but not as strong.
Injury Report: (note: Players on IR are NOT listed here):
OUT: D. Jones, D. Watson, J. Gibbs, M. Sanders, K. Herbert AND R. Johnson, T. Homer, Z. Jones, T. Burks, J. Smith-Schuster, J. Johnson
DOUBTFUL: J. Wilson
WILL PLAY (no injury designation): A. Ekeler, K. Ingram, M. Evans, A. St. Brown, D.K. Metcalf
QUESTIONABLE: RB: S. Barkley, E Mitchell; WR: T. Dell (not expected to play), O. Beckham; TE: D. Kincaid
QUESTIONABLE BUT EXPECTED TO PLAY: T. Higgins, M. Brown, R. Woods, D. Waller, S. LaPorta, D. Njoku, T. Knox
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:
Top 5: MIA (31.25) BUF (29.75) KC (29) LAR (27.5) DAL (26.25)
Bottom 5: NYG (14.75) CLE (15.75) NYJ (17) CAR (17.25) DEN (18.5)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. BAL 3. SF 4. CLE 5. DAL
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. CHI 3. WAS 4. LAC 5. PHI
Top 5 vs RB: 1. PHI 2. NO 3. DET 4. CLE 5. ATL
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CAR 3. CHI 4. NYG 5. ARI
Top 5 vs WR: 1. CLE 2. NYJ 3. HOU 4. DAL 5. LAR
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC 2. WAS 3. PHI 4. SEA 5. MIN
Top 5 vs TE: 1. BAL 2. BUF 3. NO 4. TEN 5. ARI
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. NYJ 2. ATL 3. LAR 4. CIN 5. DEN
Week 6 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Tyreek Hill, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
After 2 stellar weeks in a row, the Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did fine last week, but it was more like “B or B-Minus” territory. On the plus side, I got all of my RB Fades correct. On the minus side, George Kittle was my TE Fade of the Week. Hey, this column is free—so if you want your money back that’s fine. Here is the full report from last week for those who want to check my work: fantasy-preview-week-5. OK, let’s go already!
Can Lamar and the Ravens Bounce Back Across the Pond?
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Justin Fields (vs. MIN). OK, I’m back in. Fields is coming off the 2 best passing games of his career, but hasn’t been running wild like he did last year. If that elite rushing upside ever shows up, look out. Even if he doesn’t have a big game with his legs, he should again have plenty of success throwing the ball against a vulnerable Vikings’ defense that has yielded the 7th most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs.
Other Rides:
Tua (vs. Panthers). Sure, why not? Miami should roll in this one, and with Achane not on the field, fewer drives will end with one handoff that goes to the house. The Panthers’ middling pass defense shouldn’t pose that much resistance to Miami’s high-octane attack.
Lamar Jackson (vs. TEN, London). Last week’s stinker interrupted a really nice run of games for Lamar. He should get back to scoring 20+ fantasy points this week, provided his pass-catchers can hold on to the ball. The Titans have played better pass defense of late, but I still like Lamar and the Ravens’ offense to rebound.
Here are 3 QBs ranked outside the Top 10 this week that I think could give you Top-10 performances: M. Stafford (vs. ARI), G. Smith (@CIN), and D. Prescott (@LAC). Can Dak bounce back from a putrid performance last week? I think he can, against a very generous defense (4th most FPPG to QBs).
QB Sleeper of the Week:
Sam Howell (@ ATL). I’m running back a ticket that cashed last week. The Commanders have good offensive weapons and keep getting into shootouts, and Howell is showing that he’s capable of compiling fantasy points with his arm and legs. It won’t always be pretty, but I think he can help your fantasy team if you need him this week.
Other Sleepers:
Gardner Minshew (@JAC). I don’t have that much confidence in this call, but if you’re stuck this week, I think Minshew can get you some points. They’ll keep easing Jonathan Taylor in, and the threat of their potent ground attack should open up some opportunities for Minshew in the passing game.
Jimmy G (vs. NE). Why is he on my list, when the Pats have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs? Well, teams don’t throw on you when they’re up by 4 TDs, and that, plus season-ending injuries in Week 3 to New England’s 2 best defenders, skew the numbers. The Pats are a very hot mess. This is a revenge game times 3, and Jimmy G is going to be here for it. I like him as a sneaky DFS play this week too.
Baker Mayfield (vs. DET). I’d feel better about this call if I knew Mike Evans was playing. He’s been Baker’s go-to guy and especially in the red zone. I’m hoping you have better options than Baker, but of the QBs ranked outside the Top 15 this week, I like him better than most. The Lions are very tough on RBs but have allowed the 10th most FPPG to QBs.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week:
Russell Wilson (@KC). Wilson is the QB 8 on the season so far, and has been a very pleasant surprise. If you dig a little deeper, a lot of his success has come in garbage time, with the Broncos trailing. True story - if you took all of his 4th quarters so far this season and extrapolated it to season-long performance, he’d be on pace to throw for 6,000 yards. I don’t trust him this week. He’s racked up cheap fantasy points against teams like the Dolphins, Commanders, and Bears. KC brings a strong defense and I don’t see them letting up in a division game. They’ve only allowed 6 passing TDs in 5 games, and I think Russ is going to struggle to give you QB1 numbers this week, even in a blowout.
Other Fades:
C.J. Stroud (vs. NO). The Saints have allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to QBs, and their defense has been excellent so far this season. Stroud has been among the biggest surprises of the first 5 weeks, but I’d leave him on the bench this week.
Jared Goff (@TB). The Lions are rolling, and while I think they have a good shot at winning this game, I don’t think Road Jared is in for a big performance. Since the start of last season, no QB with at least 20 starts has had a bigger home/road disparity. Throw in that the rested Bucs have only allowed 4 passing TDs in their 4 games, and are top 10 in fewest FPPG allowed to QBs, and I’m out this week.
If Deshaun Watson starts, I’d be very hesitant to roll him out at home against the stingy 49ers, in potentially bad weather no less. San Fran has allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to QBs, and Watson may not be at 100% if he does get the start. [update - Watson is OUT]
Among QB2s that you might be considering (and I won’t talk about the obvious ones that nobody should be considering), I’ll also pass on Joshua Dobbs (@LAR) this week.
Mostert Has a Smash Spot This Sunday
RB:
Elite options - CMC and Ekeler (if he plays); the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Raheem Mostert (vs. CAR). With no Devon Achane, Mostert will get more work, although Miami won’t want to overuse him and especially if the game gets out of hand. Even if Jeff Wilson returns, Mostert should be the lead guy. It’s also a great matchup (CAR has allowed the second most FPPG to RBs), and Mostert should add to the 7 TDs he’s already scored. He’s ranked as the RB 8 this week and I like him for a Top-5 finish.
Other Rides:
Isiah Pacheco (vs. DEN). He’s an obvious start, although he isn’t ranked inside the Top 10 this week which is surprising to me. Captain Obvious says: Start your RBs against the Broncos, who’ve allowed the most FPPG, rushing yards, and total TDs (12) to RBs so far this season. They’re the gift that keeps on giving, and Pacheco is running well. Enjoy the early lead he’ll give you on Thursday night.
Alvin Kamara (@HOU). He’s ba-a-a-ck. And all the RB competition and Taysom Hill vulturing hasn’t really materialized, plus he’s Derek Carr’s favorite target. Let the good times roll against a vulnerable Texans’ Run D that’s bottom 10 vs. the position.
Here are a few guys ranked as RB 2s this week (#13-24) that I think have pretty nice upside: A. Mattison (@CHI), J. Mixon (vs. SEA), J. Cook (vs. NYG), and D. Swift (@NYJ).
RB Sleeper of the Week: Roschon Johnson (vs. MIN). He needs to clear the concussion protocol. If he does, he’s got a nice chance for a breakout game against the Vikings. I like Chicago to roll up some points this week. [NOTE - Johnson did not clear the protocol and is out, so I will add D’Onta Foreman to the RB Sleeper list]
Other Sleepers:
Jeff Wilson (vs. CAR). If he plays, he should get enough snaps to put up some decent flex numbers, for the reasons noted when I discussed Mostert above. [NOTE - Wilson is not expected to play. If you need a deep sleeper at RB, S. Ahmed and C. Brooks are both dart throws that could pay off]
A few other sleepers to consider, if you’re in need: J. McLaughlin (@KC), C. Hubbard (@MIA), T. Spears (vs. BAL), and E. Demercado (@LAR).
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Breece Hall (vs. PHI). Hall was a strong Ride call for me last week, and it paid off. So here he is a week later in this dreaded spot in my column. Why? Well, last week he faced DEN, allowing the most FPPG to RBs, and this week he gets the other end of the spectrum. Philly has allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs, and just one total TD to the position. Oh, and the Jets just lost their best offensive lineman (Alijah Vera-Tucker) for the season. I see tough sledding for the talented Hall this week. If you start him, the hope is that he breaks a long one.
Other Fades:
Rhamondre Stevenson (@LV). Stevenson makes the column for the third straight week. I’ve said this before— when something works for me, I stick with it. Stevenson is the only Patriot you can even think about starting right now, and if you’ve got him you probably don’t have a better option, but this offense is a full-on disaster right now, and Stevenson hasn’t looked like the same back that he was last season.
Rachaad White (vs. DET). This is more about the matchup than anything. The Lions haven’t allowed any RB to go over 50 yards rushing this season, and they’ve allowed the fewest total yards to RBs and the third fewest FPPG to the position,
Jonathan Taylor (@JAC). It’s hard to sit Zack Moss after what he’s been doing, and at the same time it’s tempting to want to start Taylor. I get it. It’s a conundrum all around for fantasy managers. Of the 2, I’d go with Moss given how phenomenal he’s been. The Jags are stout vs. the run (6th fewest FPPG to the position and just one total TD yielded), so I’d avoid the guessing game with Taylor if I could. I don’t feel all that great starting Mos given the uncertainty and the matchup.
A few more RBs that give me pause this week: Dameon Pierce (vs. NO), Miles Sanders (@MIA), and Jerome Ford (vs. SF). (UPDATE - Sanders is OUT)
Can Dak and CeeDee get it Going This Week in LA?
WR:
Elite options - Jefferson, Chase, Hill, Diggs, Kupp, and Adams; the analysis starts below these 6.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: CeeDee Lamb (@LAC). It’s been a disappointing season so far for the entire Dallas passing game. The good news is they play the Chargers this week and they’ve been torched over and over by WRs this season. They’ve allowed the most FPPG to the position, and I think CeeDee is about to have his first really big game of 2023.
Other Rides:
D.J. Moore (vs. MIN). Get ‘em while they’re hot! An obvious choice, coming off of his monster game and facing the Vikings, who’ve allowed the most yards and the 5th most FPPG to WRs. He’s ranked at the bottom of the Top 10 this week and for me that’s too low.
Puka Nacua (vs. ARI). I’ll keep riding him until it doesn’t work. The return of Cooper Kupp is definitely going to impact his target volume, but he’s for real and it’s another nice matchup against a bottom 10 pass defense.
I’ll do what I did above with the RBs. Here are quite a few WRs ranked as WR2s this week (#13-24) who I’m riding: M. Evans (vs. DET), A. Thielen (@MIA; true story, he’s the WR10 on the season), M. Pittman, Jr. (@JAC), C. Kirk (vs. IND) , J. Addison (@CHI), and Z. Flowers (@TEN).
I like a lot of WRs ranked in the 20s this week to finish inside the Top 20. Here are a couple more, who sit below #24 for the week : Garrett Wilson (vs. PHI) and M. Brown (@LAR).
WR Sleeper of the Week: Jakobi Meyers (vs. NE). Here’s a crazy stat: Meyers leads all NFL WRs in targets inside the 10 yard line. And teammate Davante Adams has the second most. What? Anyway, Meyers goes up against his old team this week and I think he’s going to have a very nice game. He’s ranked outside the Top 30 and that’s too low for me.
Other Sleepers:
Tyler Lockett (@CIN) and Chris Godwin (vs. DET) are both ranked outside the Top 30 this week, and I think both will be busy, in highly competitive games. You can fire them up with some confidence. Lockett pretty much always outplays his ranking, and he’ll do so again this week.
Here are some WRs ranked outside the Top 36 (so, not even WR3s this week) who I think can be in lineups as WR3s or flexes: D. London (vs. WAS), K.J. Osborn (@CHI), J. Downs (@JAC), and T. Boyd (vs. SEA).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Amari Cooper (vs. SF). Cooper is still an excellent WR, and better days are ahead. But with Watson out of the lineup in the Browns last game, he caught just one pass. With the 49ers on the other side, bad weather forecasted, and Watson out again, this is an easy call.
Other Fades:
Terry McLaurin (@ATL). He only has one TD on the year, and Scary Terry hasn’t emerged as the team’s clear #1 passing weapon. There are multiple mouths to feed for Sam Howell, and against Atlanta’s surprisingly stingy pass defense (6th fewest FPPG to WRs), I’ll look elsewhere if I can.
Nico Collins (vs. NO). I really like the player, and really don’t like the matchup this week, against the Saints and possibly a lot of M. Lattimore.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (@KC). See what I wrote about Russ Wilson above. Both of these guys will be targeted, but I don’t like either one for a good outing against the KC DBs.
All KC WRs. I get it, you want to play them against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. It’s a mouth-watering matchup, and they’re catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, although it could be very windy which would impact deep passing. Here’s the problem: they have 7 WRs who’ve caught passes this season, and nobody (so far) has gotten consistently high usage or emerged as even close to trustworthy in fantasy. Rookie Rashee Rice leads the WR group in targets (24) and catches (17) over the first 5 games, so if I had to pick one it would be him, but those are paltry usage numbers. I’m fading the entire group unless and until someone steps up as a reliable weekly option.
Hock has been Quiet…Too Quiet
TE:
Elite option - Kelce; the analysis starts below him.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: T.J. Hockenson (@CHI). This appears to be a very obvious pick, with Justin Jefferson out. However, Hockenson has only topped 10 fantasy points once this season (Week 2), so don’t assume this is automatic. The Bears just gave up a big game to Logan Thomas, so this sure looks like a setup for Hockenson to have one of his best games in purple. I’ll bet on it.
Other Rides:
Dallas Goedert (@NYJ). Goedert is coming off his best (and only really good) game of the season, so maybe this is the start of something. The Jets are very tough on WRs but they’ve actually been the most generous defense for opposing TEs. This is a nice spot for Goedert.
Cole Kmet (vs. MIN). I’ve got more mentions of this game in my Rides and Sleepers than any other game on the Week 6 slate. Yes readers, I’m expecting points in Chicago this Sunday. Kmet has 3 TDs in his last 2 games and has been a big part of the Justin Fields resurgence. There’s no reason to think that stops this week against the Vikings, who’ve already allowed 3 TDs to the position on the season.
Logan Thomas is coming off a huge game, so this feels a bit like a performance chase. It isn’t. The Falcons have allowed the second most FPPG to TEs, and Thomas has always been productive when healthy.
Jake Ferguson (@LAC). I think he’ll be part of the bounce-back for the Dallas passing game this week.
TE Sleeper of the Week: Dawson Knox (vs. NYG). I’m expecting Dalton Kincaid (concussion) to miss this game, which would open the door for Knox (assuming he plays) to get more targets. The Giants shouldn’t offer much resistance, and Knox has always been a favorite target of Josh Allen.
Other Sleepers:
Here are a few deep cuts to consider if you’re stuck at TE this week: Z. Ertz (@LAR), G. Everett (vs. DAL, and especially if Donald Parham can’t suit up), and C. Otton (vs. DET).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: Tyler Higbee (vs. ARI). Cooper Kupp returned, and in a game where the Rams were trailing and playing a vulnerable pass defense, he managed just 2 catches for 20 yards. It’s feeling like he’s the odd man out right now, with usage that will be very hard to count on. Also, for the first time in forever, the Cardinals are defending the TE very well and they haven’t allowed a TD to the position yet this season.
Other Fades:
Darren Waller (@BUF). On the one hand, the Bills allow the fewest FPPG to TEs, haven’t allowed a TD to the position, Waller is banged up, and the Giants might be without their starting QB. On the other, the Bills lost their best cover LB (Matt Milano) for the season, Waller is coming off his best game as a Giant, and Big Blue figures to be chasing points. So I could make a persuasive case either way. I’ll take the under on Waller this week.
A couple of other TEs I’m fading this week: J. Smith (vs. WAS) and D. Njoku (vs. SF).
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 6 Waiver Wire column: waiver-wire-week-6 .
I’m out of words. Good luck to all in Week 6!
DH
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