Pigskin Papers: Fantasy Preview Week 5
All Aboard the AR Hype Train!
(Published October 5, 2023, updated for injury and weather news on Sunday, October 8, at 11:30 a.m.)
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Welcome to Week 5! Time flies and we’re almost at the quarter pole of the 2023 season. September has turned to October and it finally feels like the 2023 NFL season is in full swing…that is, unless you’re a Bengals or Giants fan.
Speaking of the Giants, in a weird scheduling twist, 2 of the first 4 weeks of the season had MetLife Stadium hosting back-to-back Sunday/Monday night games. In both cases, the Rodgers-less Jets scrapped and clawed to a tight finish against one of the NFL’s elites (winning one and losing one), while the Giants got completely obliterated and embarrassed, and scored a grand total of 3 points.
I received a lot of positive feedback on the Stats of the Week section of last week’s column, so let’s run it back and I’ll make this a weekly feature. That’s better than me pattering on about what happened the weekend before. Everyone wins!
********** WEEK 5 WAIVER WIRE COLUMN: Waiver-wire-week-5. **********
Week 4 Stats of the Week:
Cowboys 38, Patriots 3 was the most lopsided loss of Bill Belichick’s career as a Head Coach (498 games, including playoffs).
The Bears have lost 13 games in a row.
If the season ended today, the Bears would have the first 2 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The 49ers have won 14 regular season games in a row.
Brock Purdy has won all 9 of his regular season starts.
Christian McCaffrey has now scored at least one TD in 13 straight games, including playoffs (Jerry Rice had held the franchise record, at 12).
Puka Nacua has the most receptions (39) and receiving yards (501) through the first 4 games of a career in NFL history.
Sam LaPorta has the most catches (22) by a Tight End through the first 4 games of a career in NFL history.
Stefon Diggs now has 4 games with 120+ receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. The only players with more such games in the SB era are Jerry Rice (9) and Randy Moss (7).
Khalil Mack’s 6 sacks on Sunday were the second most all-time in one game (Derrick Thomas has the record, with 7). Sacks became an official statistic in 1982.
The Texans’ 30-6 win over the Steelers on Sunday was their first home win since 2021, and the margin of victory was their largest in any game since 2017.
C.J. Stroud is the first player in NFL history to have more than 1,200 passing yards and zero interceptions over his first 4 career games, and only Cam Newton had a higher passing yardage total through his first 4 career games.
The Ravens were the only AFC North team that managed to score a TD in Week 4 (all 4 teams played).
The Giants have been outscored 77-9 in the first half of games.
In 2 home games, the Giants have been outscored 64-3.
Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes for 33 yards on Sunday. It was the first time that a player caught 13 or more passes while totaling less than 70 receiving yards.
Cowboys’ rookie PK Brandon Aubrey is a perfect 13-13 on FG tries, and 49ers’ rookie PK Jake Moody is perfect on all kicks (9-9 FGs, 14-14 PATs).
In the 49ers vs. Cardinals game, the first 6 TDs were scored by players who went to Stanford (CMC and Michael Wilson). The last time that players from Stanford scored 6 TDs in an NFL game was in 1929, in a tilt between the Chicago Cardinals and Chicago Bears.
A Fantasy stat: Through 4 games, no TE has recorded a 100 yard receiving game. The highest total thus far is 95 yards, from Falcons’ tight end……Jonnu Smith. Cue the Kyle Pitts managers pouring themselves another stiff one. I warned you: Red-light: players-I'm-avoiding-at-ADP .
Sorry, one more Fantasy stat: Through 4 games, the Cowboys’ D/ST has the 6th most fantasy points among non-QBs (Half PPR).
Sorry, and I promise this is the last fantasy stat: Joe Burrow (the QB31) has 13 fewer fantasy points than Zach Wilson (the QB26).
WEEK 5 BYES: THE BYE WEEKS ARE HERE! THE BYE WEEKS ARE HERE! Off this week:
CLE, LAC, SEA, TB
********SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE*******
Updated Weather Report: There don’t appear to be any major trouble spots. Both NO@NE and BAL@PIT could have medium-strength winds throughout the game.
Updated Week 5 Injury Report (reminder - players on IR are not listed here):
OUT: S. Barkley, J. Gibbs, E. Mitchell, A. St. Brown, T. Higgins, T. Burks, P. Freiermuth, J. Johnson
IN (will play): K. Pickett, J. Taylor, M. Sanders, C. Kupp, Jameson Williams, Z. Jones (active for the London game), R. Bateman, L. Musgrave, I. Smith
QUESTIONABLE: Jav. Williams (true GTD)
TEAM OFFENSE REPORT: These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week.
Top 5: MIA (30.75), KC (29), DET (27.5), PHI (27.25), BUF (27)
Bottom 5: PIT (17.5), CAR (17.5), CHI (19), NYG (19.25), NO (19.75)
TEAM DEFENSE REPORT, FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED:
Top 5 vs QB: 1. BUF 2. DAL 3. BAL 4. NE 5. CLE
Bottom 5 vs QB: 1. DEN 2. CHI 3. PHI 4. LAC 5. MIA
Top 5 vs RB: 1.DAL 2. PHI 3. CLE 4. NO 5. TEN
Bottom 5 vs RB: 1. DEN 2. CHI 3. ARI 4. CAR 5. GB
Top 5 vs WR: 1. CLE 2. HOU 3. NYJ 4. DAL 5. LAR
Bottom 5 vs WR: 1. LAC 2. MIN 3. PIT 4. PHI 5. WAS
Top 5 vs TE: 1. WAS 2. BAL 3. BUF 4. NE 5. TEN
Bottom 5 vs TE: 1. NYJ 2. DEN 3. PHI 4. CIN 5. JAX
Week 5 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the very top options at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Hurts, CMC, Jefferson, or Kelce every week. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR, and TE. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers have had an excellent hit rate the past few weeks. I missed badly on Lamar Jackson last week, but a whole bunch of accurate calls across the various positions more than made up for it. I’m on a bit of a roll - let’s see if it can continue. You can see the good, the bad, and the ugly from last week’s column here: Fantasy-preview-week-4 .
It’s an Odd-Numbered Week, so Play Tua
QB:
Elite options - Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, and L. Jackson; the analysis starts below these 4.
Rides and Sleepers:
QB Ride of the Week: Anthony Richardson (vs. TEN). OK, I’m in on the AR experience and I think the high rushing floor is going to give us some big weeks, like we just got from him last week. He’s gone over 20 fantasy points in both games that he started and finished, and while the Titans completely shut down the Cincinnati passing attack last week, that’s not saying much at the moment. They’ve been vulnerable through the air and facing a mobile QB is a very different story than one that can’t move. AR is ranked outside the Top 5 this week and he’s in my Top 5.
Other Rides:
Tua (vs. NYG). Miami is averaging 70 points per game at home this year. OK, OK, that was a joke. But Tua’s pattern so far has been huge games during odd weeks followed by mediocre games on the even weeks. This is Week 5, and Miami needs a bounce back after getting rolled by the Bills. The Giants were an embarrassment on Monday night but I think they’ll regroup and stay in this game for a while, so he’ll be throwing.
Kirk Cousins (vs. KC). The Chiefs’ defense is decent, but Kirk shines at home and the Vikings will need to score a lot in this one to avoid their 4th loss. Some of it could be in garbage time, but Kirk (the QB1 before last week) will get his numbers.
A couple of QBs ranked just outside the Top-10 and who I like for Top 10 finishes this week are Jordan Love (@LV) and C.J. Stroud (@ATL). Both have been putting up fantasy points aplenty, and are still a bit underrated for fantasy purposes.
QB Sleeper of the Week: Sam Howell (vs. CHI). This is more a matchup thing than anything else, plus Howell did bounce back nicely last week against the Eagles, after that awful showing against the Bills in Week 3. The Bears are terrible across the board but they’re especially bad vs. the pass. They’ve allowed the second most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, and are one of only 2 teams that’s already allowed 10+ passing TDs.
Other Sleepers:
A couple of QBs ranked 20 and lower who I think you can plug-and-play if you need them this week, either as a QB2 in a Superflex or a streaming start: Matt Stafford (vs. PHI), Josh Dobbs (vs. CIN), and….drumroll please…yup, Zach Wilson (@DEN). This is the first time I’ve had everyone’s favorite whipping boy as a Ride or Sleeper, ever. He looked decent last week, and the Broncos have given up the most FPPG and the most TD passes (13) to opposing QBs. This is a perfect spot for Wilson to build a little more confidence.
Fades:
QB Fade of the Week: Trevor Lawrence (vs. BUF, in London). For the second time in 3 weeks, Lawrence is my QB Fade of the Week. It hit the first time, as the Texans shut him down. The Bills are even tougher than the Texans, as they’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs, and just 3 passing TDs. They lead the league in INTs, with 8. The Bills are down a few key pieces in their secondary, so maybe Lawrence will have more success than Tua did last week, but it’s not like Trevor is setting the world on fire this season. He’s the QB19 through 4 games and has yet to crack 20 fantasy points in a game. I don’t see it happening this week either.
Other Fades:
Joe Burrow (@ARI). I know it’s tough to sit him and especially with a matchup against a bottom-10 pass defense. On paper, it’s a good opportunity for him to snap out of it. But this isn’t paper, and based on what we’ve seen, and how he and the whole offense look, I think you have to sit him down, even if the Bengals won’t. The injury is clearly a problem and is limiting his ability to move around, plant, and step into his throws. He’s completed only 7 passes of 20 yards or more, which is dead last among QBs who’ve played in all 4 games. Plus, he’s likely to be without Tee Higgins. I could go on, but I’ll stop here.
Russell Wilson has been a very good fantasy option so far this year. Believe it or not, he’s the QB9 on the season! Trailing a lot, and having an atrocious defense, will do that. I think he’ll be OK this week, but you saw how Patrick Mahomes looked against this aggressive and opportunistic defense.
I can’t imagine these players are going to be in many lineups this week - but in case you’re considering them as a QB2 in a Superflex, tread very carefully: M. Jones (vs. NO), D. Ridder (vs. HOU), B. Young (@DET), D. Carr (@NE).
Guess Which RB Gets to Face the Bears?
RB:
Elite options - CMC and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below these 2.
Rides and Sleepers:
RB Ride of the Week: Brian Robinson, Jr. (vs. CHI). He’s the RB7 through 4 games, is getting a larger share of the pie than most thought he’d get, and this week he gets the reeling Bears, at home, on a short week. Chicago’s defense has allowed the second most FPPG to RBs, and that includes 8 total TDs in just 4 games. I’m good at math - that’s 2 RB TDs per game. Get Robinson into your lineups this week. This one is easy.
Other Rides:
David Montgomery (vs. CAR). Be honest, who had Brian Robinson, Jr. and Montgomery on their BINGO card as consensus top-10 ranked RBs in Week 5? Well, both are, and both deserve to be. Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing TDs last year, and not only is Montgomery a better runner than Williams, but the Lions are a better team this season. When the Lions get near the goal line, they hand it off. Against the winless Panthers, Montgomery should again have multiple chances for easy punch-ins.
Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane (v. NYG) can both be in lineups this week. The backfield split was around 60-40 last week, in favor of the rookie, in a game that got away from Miami. Achane has 6 TDs over the last 2 weeks, is averaging more than 10 YPC (that’s not a misprint), and is too hot to leave on your bench. Mostert is going to get his opportunities too, against a vulnerable Giants’ run defense that’s bottom 10 vs. RBs. Speaking of which, if Saquon Barkley is active, he’s a very nice start also in his return, against a Miami defense that’s also bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to the position.
Who’s ready for the Breece Hall (@DEN) breakout game? Word out of Jets world is that Hall is no longer on a pitch count. The other good news is that they’re playing Denver, and you saw what Miami’s fast RBs did to them 2 weeks ago. Well, Hall is really fast too, and he should feast on the defense that’s allowed - by far- the most FPPG to RBs. Hall, ranked all the way down as the RB20 for the week, got consideration for the RB Ride of the Week.
More mid-level Rides: Isiah Pacheco (@MIN) is coming off a big game against the Jets and should find more success this week against the Vikings. Is Aaron Jones still alive? I don’t feel great about starting him right after his disappointing return last week, but he’s hard to sit at the Raiders and I like him for a bounce back this week.
RB Sleeper of the Week:
Khalil Herbert (@WAS). He’s coming off his best game of the season, and he was clearly the lead back last week, so things are looking up. Yes, it was against the Broncos, but the Commanders are a middle of the pack run defense, and for now, Herbert is the hot hand in the Chicago backfield. With 4 teams on Bye and several RBs hurt, you could do worse at RB2.
Other Sleepers:
Jaleel McLaughlin makes for a nice RB2 or flex play if Javonte Williams is out or is limited. He went for over 100 total yards last week, and also passed the eye test. The way to attack the Jets is on the ground. They’re allowing about 150 total yards per game to opposing RBs.
Gus Edwards is an OK flex play against the Steelers, who’ve allowed the 6th most FPPG and the second most rushing yards to RBs.
Chuba Hubbard might get more opportunities than normal this week, with Miles Sanders continuing to nurse a sore groin. If you’re stuck, he’s not a terrible play at the Lions and especially in Full PPR.
Fades:
RB Fade of the Week: Najee Harris (vs. BAL). Rinse and repeat. Harris has made my Fades list multiple times this season, and it’s an easy call. He isn’t seeing the snap share or passing volume that made him a top-10 RB during his rookie year, and he looks slow. This is almost too obvious, but some people are still thinking of Harris as an RB1. He isn’t that.
Other Fades:
Rhamondre Stevenson. I think better days are ahead, and I know it’s been very disappointing so far. Sorry, but I think it continues for one more week. The Saints are as plodding as New England and have been involved in one low-scoring game after another. This feels like a 17-14 game. Also, New Orleans is top 5 in fewest FPPG allowed to RBs and they haven’t allowed an RB to score all year.
Miles Sanders. He isn’t at 100%, and only the 49ers have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Lions. The Panthers will be lucky to score 14 points this week. Pass.
It’s been a tough slog for Dameon Pierce this season, even with the Texans’ offense being much better than expected. The Falcons are another team that hasn’t allowed an RB into the end zone this year, and I don’t expect big numbers for Pierce.
I’m fading Alex Mattison (vs. KC). I’m not all that worried about the split with Cam Akers, I just think he’s been living on volume and the game script might not allow for that this week.
Keep Rolling with Puka
WR:
Elite options - Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Chase (yes, I’m still including him) and Adams; the analysis starts below these 5.
Rides and Sleepers:
WR Ride of the Week: Puka Nacua (vs. PHI). And why not? I don’t think Cooper Kupp will suit up this week, and the Rams are going to need to throw a ton to keep up with Philly in what could easily be the highest scoring game of the week. You know the stats - Nacua is setting rookie records and leads the NFL in targets. He figures to again be very busy in this one. Oh, and the Eagles have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs (and the second fewest to RBs). Matt Stafford will throw, throw, and then throw some more.
Other Rides:
Garrett Wilson (@DEN). Did a lightbulb go off for Zach Wilson last week, when he realized that he should be throwing the ball to the team’s best pass catcher? Denver’s defense is awful across the board, and they’re bottom 10 against WRs.
Here are 3 more WRs who, like Wilson, are ranked in the teens this week and who I think could give you a Top 10 WR finish: T. McLaurin (vs. CHI), M. Pittman (vs. TEN), and N. Collins (@ATL). All have plus matchups, and all have been trending mostly positively in recent weeks.
Moving down into the 20s, but not quite into sleeper range, here are some guys who I think will put up solid weeks as WR2s, with upside for more: C. Watson (@LV), M. Brown (vs. CIN) and A. Thielen (@DET).
WR Sleeper of the Week:
Romeo Doubs (@LV). The volume has been insane the last 2 weeks (25 targets), and his connection with Jordan Love looks real. Yes, Christian Watson is back and getting healthier and that could mean fewer targets this week (and certainly in the red zone where Watson is a beast), but I think both can get theirs this week and as you can see from reading the whole column, I like the Packers to score plenty on the Raiders. Throw in that Luke Musgrave is iffy with a concussion, and I think it’s a full green light for the other main options in the passing game.
Other Sleepers:
Tank Dell (@ATL). A careful read of the entire column will reveal that I’m all in on the HOU passing game and out on their run game. Who’da thunk it, after how this team played offense last season? Well, that’s where we are. Dell is a little hard to count on, but he’s got nice upside in your RB3 or Flex spot.
Jordan Addison. I hit on a couple of calls last week where I rode players coming off of terrible games. Hey, you can’t just chase performance and call yourself a fantasy analyst. I’ll try it again here with Addison, who got bageled last week. It’s all hands on deck for the MIN passing game vs. KC, and that includes the rookie.
A few deeper sleepers to consider, if you’re in need or want a DFS dart throw: T. Boyd (@ARI), M. Gallup (@SF), J. Dotson (vs. CHI), and R. Rice (@MIN).
Fades:
WR Fade of the Week: Drake London (vs. HOU). It feels unfair to list him as a Fade, given how poorly his season has gone, but people drafted him as a high-end WR2 and might still be starting him, and especially after he found the end zone last week. He has yet to score more than 16 fantasy points in a game this year, and this week he’s facing a defense that’s been stalwart against WRs since the start of the 2022 season. The Texans have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs and only one TD catch to the position. Hard pass.
Other Fades:
Chris Olave (@NE). This one is tough to type. Olave just isn’t getting the volume or ADOT we all expected, and with his QB banged up and dumping it off left and right, that’s probably not going to change this week. Better days are ahead, but if you have better options, consider sitting him in a slightly unfavorable matchup at NE this week.
Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYJ). I’ve been a consistent naysayer on Jeudy for the last 2 seasons, and I’m not at all tired of being right. I just don’t think he’s all that good. And this week the Broncos face a very tough Jets’ pass defense (2nd fewest FPPG to WRs, and only 1 TD catch allowed to the position).
A few more WRs I’d try to avoid this week: Jameson Williams (vs. CAR, definitely wait at least a week), M. Thomas (@NE), and G. Pickens (vs. BAL).
LaPorta - Another Rookie Pass Catcher Who is Setting Records
TE:
Elite option - Kelce, Andrews and Hockenson; the analysis starts below these 3.
Rides and Sleepers:
TE Ride of the Week: Sam LaPorta (vs. CAR). With ARSB and Josh Reynolds both nursing injuries, and Jameson Williams making his season debut, LaPorta is a safe bet to continue defying the rules for rookie TEs. He’ll see plenty of volume again, and should turn in another Top 5 performance at the position.
Other Rides:
Tyler Higbee (vs. PHI). So far this season, the Eagles’ defense has looked nothing like the smothering, dominating unit of a year ago. Higbee has been seeing good volume the last 2 weeks, and the Eagles have struggled vs. TEs, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to the position and 3 TDs already.
Darren Waller (@MIA). It’s really hard to back anything on the NYG offense after it’s offensive performance on Monday night, but I think the Big Blue braintrust is going to start scheming things up to get Waller more involved, and if Saquon can return that will be much easier. Miami’s defense is vulnerable, including to this position. I’ll zig to the zag here - give it a go.
Zach Ertz (vs. CIN). Ertz has seen at least 8 targets in every game except one, and the Bengals have struggled against opposing TEs, allowing the 4th most FPPG to the position. This isn’t a sexy pick, but it’s not a sexy position. He’ll give you points.
TE Sleeper of the Week:
Tyler Conklin (@DEN). Trying to find a sleeper at this position is a total crapshoot. You’re basically looking for a lucky TD. Well, Conklin is ranked outside the top 20 TEs this week, and I’ll take those odds against Denver (2nd most FPPG allowed to TEs). But man, this is a lot of Jets...
Other Sleepers:
Wait…I could barely find one sleeper at this position. Now you want more? OK, if I must: Dawson Knox (vs. JAC).
Fades:
TE Fade of the Week: George Kittle (vs. DAL). If you have him, you aren’t benching him, and he can go off at any time. But the fact is he’s only had one good game this season, and that was a game Brandon Aiyuk missed. Dallas allowed the third fewest FPPG to TEs last year, and they haven’t allowed one to score yet this year.
Other Fades:
Cole Kmet (@WAS). He’s coming off a huge game, so this feels a little risky, but check his box scores for the first 3 games. I’m not going to chase performance with him, or this offense. Not yet, anyway.
Kyle Pitts (vs. HOU). The “experts” have finally taken him out of the weekly Top 10! Maybe they’ve been reading my column for the past 16 months. But he’s still in the Top 12, and that’s still too high for this guy.
Other fades: C. Okonkwo (@ IND) and H. Henry (vs. NO).
PK and D/ST Streamers: See the Week 5 Waiver Wire column: waiver-wire-week-5 .
That’s a wrap, folks. Good luck to all in Week 5!
DH
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