Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 2

(Published September 15, updated for injuries and weather, September 18, 10:00 a.m. 2022)

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Welcome to Week 2. For those of you who used a first or second round pick to draft one of the consensus top 5 WRs, you should feel pretty, pretty good about that decision. Kupp, Jefferson Chase, Diggs and Adams were 5 of the top 6 WR scorers in Week 1, and there’s no reason to think they won’t all be high floor, high ceiling producers all year. For me, that was perhaps the biggest takeaway from Week 1.

The performance of those stud WRs wasn’t surprising. That said, Week 1 is always full of surprises, and this year was no exception. If you’re riding a high from Michael Thomas getting completely shut out in the first half and then exploding for 2 TDs during the Saints’ comeback, enjoy. If you’re smirking because you drafted Darrell Henderson 6 rounds after someone spent a third or fourth rounder on Cam Akers, kudos. On the flip side, if you’re seething over Kyle Pitts and CeeDee Lamb each catching just 2 passes for less than 30 yards, you aren’t alone. If you lost your starting QB to a broken hand in Week 1, ditto. The good news? It’s Week 2, and for the most part, there’s no reason to panic. We all overreact to Week 1, and in many cases our worst fears about our roster are proven at least partially wrong. If your fantasy team suffered a setback or underperformed in a big way last week, there’s plenty of time to regroup. It’s only one week.

The Pigskin Papers is here to help you with your waivers and lineup decisions. For those who missed our Waiver Wire column this week, here it is: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-waiver-wire-week-2 . If your League has open add/drops after waivers are processed, maybe you can find someone to help bolster your roster. If you’re in a hurry, here is a Cheatsheet version of the Rides, Fades and Sleepers: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-cheatsheet-week-2 .

Team offense report:

These are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for this week:

Top 5: 1. BUF (29.75) 2. KC (29.5) T3. LAR (28.75) T3. LV (28.75) 5. DEN (28)

Bottom 5: T1. CHI (16.25) T1. SEA (16.25) 3. NYJ (17) 4. DAL (17.5) 5. HOU (18)

Team Defense Report

We learned a little last week about the defenses that might be easiest and hardest to exploit. In particular, the Bills look to be a bad fantasy matchup across the board, again. We’ll know a lot more about the whole league in a couple of weeks. Since we only have one week of 2022 stats, let’s again look at the best and worst defenses, in terms of fantasy points allowed vs. each offensive position in 2021 (full PPR):

Top 5 vs. QB: 1. BUF, 2. NE, 3. LAR, 4. NO, 5. DEN

Bottom 5 vs. QB: 32. WAS, 31. ATL, 30. BAL, 29. KC, 28. NYJ

Top 5 vs. RB: 1. TEN, 2. NO, 3. TB, 4. DAL, 5. IND

Bottom 5 vs. RB: 32. NYJ, 31. DET, 30. SEA, 29. LAC, 28. HOU

Top 5 vs. WR: 1. BUF, 2. PHI, 3. LAC, 4. NE, 5. LV

Bottom 5 vs. WR: 32. MIN, 31. TEN, 30. BAL, 29. ARI, 28. WAS

Top 5 vs. TE: 1. NE, 2. ARI, 3. DEN, 4. BUF, 5. TEN

Bottom 5 vs. TE: 32. LAC, 31. PHI, 30. LV, 29. BAL, 28. NYJ

Weather Report: The only real weather spot looks to be SF, where moderate rain and medium strength winds are expected today - once again the 49ers won’t be playing in good weather.

Injury Report:

Players already declared OUT: D. Prescott, M. Pittman, M. Gallup, A. Pierce

Players not expected to play: A. Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, C. Godwin, G. Kittle

Players expected to play: J. Winston, D. Swift, M. Fournette, M. Ingram, A. Lazard, T. Higgins, K. Toney, R. Gage

True GTD: J. Jones, G. Davis

Rides, Fades, and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else - The Rides, Fades and Sleepers (RFS) is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up start/sit exercise, and as a general rule, start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” because they aren’t really in a position to overperform, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start J. Taylor, J. Allen, Mahomes, the “Big 5” WRs, or Kelce. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week at QB, RB, WR and TE. The rules: the Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week has to be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The RFSs got off to an excellent start to the season last week, thank you very much. Did I have some misses? Of course, and because I discuss a lot of players, I always will. The Fades of the Week (Brady, Akers, Tyreek Hill and Gesicki) were especially strong calls. Not one of them produced a top 20 finish at his position, and two of them basically put up goose eggs. Here’s the full RFS list from Week 1: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-cheatsheet-2022-week-1 .

One last thing, before we get into the analysis - the over-under for tonight’s game is 54 - easily the highest total of the week. You want to start your Chargers and Chiefs where you can.

QB

Rides and Sleepers:

If you read my column last week, recall that I identified 12 QBs who are pretty much “must starts” every week. That number is down to 11 with Dak’s injury. This week, 2 of the 11 are ranked outside the top 12, and I’m high on both to bounce back and produce top 10 finishes. Matt Stafford is coming off a rough outing on Thursday night. His line struggled to protect him, and he made some mistakes against a defense that was a fantasy nightmare for QBs last season, and looks like a nasty matchup again in 2022. Well, the champs are home again this week, but this time it’s against a Falcons’ defense that fell apart in the second half against the Saints and now has to travel across the country. This is the first of our 2 bounceback specials: Stafford is my QB Ride of the Week. Bounceback number 2 is Aaron Rodgers, who was held without a TD pass last week. He’s also at home this week, and he’ll be playing the team he owns. I know the Packers have problems at WR and along the OL, but I don’t think it’ll matter much. Stopping Trey Lance at home in a monsoon is one thing. Going into Lambeau and trying to slow down an angry Packers squad is another. Ride Rodgers with confidence.

Did you see what Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs did to the Cardinals, in their building? The Cards are a team I’m pretty low on this year, and especially their defense. Derek Carr should be able to carve them up at home, and I like him for a top 10 finish this week. He’s a Ride.

A little further down in the rankings, a few QBs I like this week if you need them are Matt Ryan** at home against the Jaguars, Carson Wentz at Detroit, and in the same game, Jared Goff. All 3 of these guys are ranked 15 or lower this week and all of them could give you QB1 numbers. Goff is ranked down in 20s and we’ll make him the QB Sleeper of the Week. If you’re desperate or want a cheap start in DFS, roll the dice on deep sleeper Daniel Jones at home vs. the Panthers. [**SUNDAY UPDATE: with his top target out, plus Alec Pierce, I am no longer recommending Ryan as a Ride]

Fades:

It’s risky, and especially after I got this right last week, but I’ll go right back to the well and make Tom Brady my QB Fade of the Week. After his weird offseason, Brady looked OK at Dallas, although he wasn’t as sharp as we’re used to and he struggled to finish drives. His line is a work in progress and losing Chris Godwin right away doesn’t help. Julio Jones looked good and that’s a big plus (if he plays*), but still, this is a matchup that has given Brady fits the last 2 years. The Saints have his number, and I think he’ll struggle just enough to keep his finish outside of QB1 range.

A few mid-range QBs that I’d try to avoid as my QB2 in a Superflex, or as a starter in a deeper 1 QB league: Justin Fields at the Packers, Ryan Tannehill at the Bills, Tua at the Ravens, and Trey Lance vs. the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks are going to be hung over, and the 49ers won’t be playing in a deluge like last week, but I need to see at least one very good NFL game from Lance. In his small sample size of career starts, I haven’t.

RB

Rides and Sleepers:

Last year, the Jets were historically bad against RBs. They allowed the most fantasy points to the position and a whopping 23 rushing TDs. Last week, the Ravens had a patchwork crew at RB with J.K. Dobbins out. The opponent this week has a very different situation. The Browns have two high quality RBs that could be the starter for most teams. Nick Chubb is my RB Ride of the Week, and fire up Kareem Hunt as well if you have him. Both should fill up the stat sheet.

Javonte Williams looked really good on Monday night - no surprise there, although his 11 catches was quite the fantasy bonus. It’s still a timeshare with Gordon, but ride him with confidence at home against a Texans’ D that just got carved up by another fast and powerful back in Jonathan Taylor.

Wait…Darrell Henderson is the RB 24 this week? Nobody saw him completely dominate touches against the Bills? Nobody saw Cam Akers get zero yards on his 3 measly carries? Maybe they ease Akers into a slightly bigger workload this week (especially if they’re salting away a lead in the second half), and yeah, their O-line looked awful against the Bills, but I think this is a get-right game for the Rams at home against Atlanta - give me Henderson at this low price everyday and twice on Sundays, including THIS Sunday.

This is amazing - I’ve got not one but TWO teams where I’m going to ride 2 RBs. Yup, it’s Green Bay. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should both be busy against the Bears, in both the run and pass game. With the Packers’ WR corps unsettled, Rodgers will have no problem leaning on his RBs as targets in the passing game. Ride ‘em! Either or both could give you a top 10 finish this week.

OK - now things are getting crazy, because I have a THIRD team where I’m giving you 2 RBs that I like this week (vs. consensus expectations) and it’s the Patriots. With Ty Montgomery put on IR, I think we’re finally going to see Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson get all of the work. They're both ranked in the 30s for the week which puts them in the sleeper category and I think both will be serviceable as low-end RB 2s or flexes this week, against a Pittsburgh D that just lost the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year and that allowed the 7th most fantasy points to RBs in 2021. Stevenson is ranked outside the Top 35 and should see more of the passing downs and 2-minute work so I’ll make him my RB Sleeper of the Week. One more for you: Jeff Wilson is ranked near the bottom of the top 30 this week, and I think he can easily outperform that ranking at home against Seattle.

Fades:

Derrick Henry didn’t look like himself in Week 1, and now he gets a Buffalo D that allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to RBs last year and looked solid in Week 1. I expect the Titans to be behind in this one, and while they aren’t scared to run Henry when they’re losing, I think you’ll again see other backs getting work. Henry is ranked inside the top 10 and I don’t see it. Yeah, I know he’s Derrick freaking Henry. I also know he’s my RB Fade of the Week.

The Jets’ RB tandem is a Fade for me until further notice and especially against better run defenses like Cleveland.

I’m nervous about Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara this week. Both are a little banged up, and are coming off games where they didn’t lead their team in rushing. Assuming they’re both good to go, you’re starting them, but they’re both ranked inside the top 20 this week and I’d temper my expectations. Better days lie ahead.

Turns out that the Dameon Pierce coming out party had a turd in the punchbowl, named Rex Burkhead. I think Pierce will eventually lead the Texans’ backfield, but on the road against a pretty stout Denver D, I’d hold off on starting him.

Cam Akers. Don’t make me waste any column space on this.

WR

Rides and Sleepers:

Fun fact - Going back to last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has recorded 7 straight games with double digit targets and at least 8 catches. He found the end zone in 6 of those 7 games. I know - some of that was with Hockenson and/or Swift out, and they brought in more WRs this year. I don’t care. This is no longer a fluke. St. Brown is Goff’s go-to, he operates mostly out of the slot meaning he rarely draws top corners, and the Lions are going to play in a lot of shootouts. He’s ranked outside the Top 15 once again, so I’ll make him my WR Ride of the Week.

I could’ve included Mike Williams in my discussion of players who badly disappointed fantasy managers in Week 1. Keenan Allen is out tonight, and the Chargers are going to need to throw, and score, to keep up with the Chiefs in an AFC West Battle Royale. In his last game at KC, Williams put up 7-122-2. I don’t expect him to go off like that this week, but I like his chances to produce a solid stat line and quickly get back in the good graces of those who drafted him.

Michael Pittman* was my WR Ride of the Week last week, and he lived up to it. He’s a Ride again, even with him ranked inside the Top 10. He’s going to finish this season as a Top 10 WR if he stays healthy - the Colts don’t have much else at WR or TE and more importantly, he’s very good. He was my #1 target in drafts this year and I’m continuing to push in my chips each week. [*SUNDAY UPDATE - Pittman is OUT - not a Ride!]

Here’s a trio of quality WRs ranked a little further down who I like as Rides this week: Hollywood Brown at the Raiders, Gabe Davis* vs. the Titans, and Jaylen Waddle at the Ravens. [*SUNDAY UPDATE - Davis is a GTD, so unless you have an immediate MNF pivot, look elsewhere]

Allen Robinson was another player who hugely disappointed in Week 1, with just one catch. I think the Rams will try to get him involved this week, and I’ll ride him. A-Rob is ranked so low this week (30), he’s practically a sleeper.

Speaking of sleepers, I’ve got a few for you, all ranked outside the top 30 WRs for the week. It was all JJ last week, but I like Adam Thielen to find the end zone at Philly this week, so I’ll make him my WR Sleeper of the Week. Others that I like: Jahan Dotson to follow up his outstanding NFL debut with another solid outing at Detroit, and Julio Jones* at New Orleans. Want deeper sleepers, outside the top 50? Let’s go with Josh Palmer at the Chiefs and Sterling Shepard vs. the Panthers. [*SUNDAY UPDATE - Julio is a true GTD].

Fades:

I love Mike Evans, and he’s a TD machine, but it’s hard to ignore his recent history against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore. He’s played the Saints 5 times in the last 2 years (including playoffs) and in those games has just 9 total catches for 131 yards. Yes, he has a few TDs in there too, but at his lofty ranking inside the top 10, he’s too TD-or-bust for me and is my WR Fade of the Week.

I made Rashod Bateman a fade last week and he burned me, scoring on a long TD throw from Lamar. However, he only had 2 catches on the day (on 5 targets). That’s awfully low volume for a team’s #1 WR. Miami has a solid secondary, and my guess is that the passing game goes more through the TEs this week. I’ll fade him again.

Cooper Rush, behind a suspect O-line that will be facing a very good Bengals’ pass rush, scares me to the point that I can’t trust CeeDee Lamb this week. The Cowboys were the only team in the NFL that didn’t score a TD last week, and I doubt they’ll get many this week. If you drafted Lamb you might not have a better option, but I wouldn't expect too much.

A few more WR fades this week: Darnell Mooney at the Packers, Drake London at the Rams, and Robert Woods and Treylon Burks at the Bills.

TE

Rides and Sleepers:

Ugh, I hate writing about this wasteland of a position. The top 4 (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, Waller) are must starts every week, you’ve got a couple of solid weekly starts right behind them, and then it’s a crapshoot. Ride all of the top 7 or 8 names, as always. You have no choice. After that, well…

Gerald Everett was one of my Sleeper TEs last week and he delivered with 54 yards and a score, but he no longer qualifies for that status as he’s ranked just outside the top 10 this week. No Donald Parham, no Keenan Allen, and a need to keep up with the Chiefs all conspire to make him this week’s TE Ride of the Week.

Cooper Rush might have trouble getting the ball to CeeDee Lamb, but I don’t think he’ll have an issue getting it to Dalton Schultz on shorter throws, and he seemed pretty locked in on him after he came in for Dak. I’ll reluctantly make him a Ride.

Zach Ertz only caught 2 passes last week but he did find the end zone. I’m fine riding him this week at the Raiders. I’ll also ride Tyler Higbee vs. the Falcons.

My TE Sleeper of the Week? Let’s go with Robert Tonyan against the Bears, in a game where Rodgers will be getting his.

Fades
The Patriots continue to be a horrible matchup for TEs. They allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards, and fantasy points to the position last year, and in Week 1, Mike Gesicki put up one catch for one yard. I know Trubisky looks for him, but I’m making Pat Freiermuth my TE Fade of the Week. Let’s also fade Cole Kmet at the Packers. I’m also not recommending Taysom Hill, who is going to be pretty hit or miss, and likely will only be used in the running game (unless he throws an occasional pass). He’s good for best ball but risky in season-long or DFS formats.

Good luck to all in Week 2! Remember to check this column again on Sunday morning for the updated injury and weather information.

DH

***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often. We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***

Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview- Week 2

Pigskin Papers Cheatsheet- 2022 Week 2

Pigskin Papers Waiver Wire- Week 2

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