Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 16

(Posted December 23, 2021, updated for injuries December 25, 2021)

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Welcome, fantasy faithful, to Week 16. If you’re here reading my column, congrats, as that likely means you still have something to play for. Even if that something is avoiding a last place penalty, happy to have you. And if your season is effectively over, sorry about that, but very glad to have you aboard too, for Round 2 of the Fantasy Football Playoffs.

In a hurry? See the Cheatsheet version of this column here: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-preview-cheatsheet-week-16 .

As we discussed in our Week 15 recap (see: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-postscript-week-15 ), Week 15 was a strange one - probably the strangest week of what was already a pretty weird season. Not only were games moved for the first time this season, and not only did a lot of players miss the week due to injury or COVID, but the games were really low-scoring. 7 different NFL teams won their games without scoring more than 21 points. And that obviously led to unusually low scores in fantasy. Hopefully, it was a one week aberration and we’ll see some scoreboards lighting up this weekend.

TEAM OFFENSE REPORT

Here are the teams with the highest and lowest implied totals for Week 16:

Top 5:

DAL (29) vs. WAS

TB (28) @ CAR

KC (28) vs. PIT

LAC (28) @ HOU

ARI (26) vs. IND

Bottom 5:

NYG (16) @ PHI

CAR (17) vs. TB

DET (18) @ ATL

PIT (18) @ KC

CHI (18) @ SEA

MIA (18) @ NO

TEAM DEFENSE REPORT

I’ll highlight some plus and minus matchups in the passing and running game as we go through the Rides and Fades.

******* Injury and Illness Update - December 25, 2021*******

Once again this week, there are a lot of players to talk about. And with the NFL’s new COVID protocols it is harder to know who might or might not be cleared before kickoff. If you’re waiting on a player who’s on the COVID list, make sure to check your favorite NFL newsfeeds frequently. Here is the latest:

QB:

With Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemien on the COVID list, Ian Book will get his first NFL career start.
Justin Fields is OUT, and Nick Foles will get his first start of the season for the Bears.
Lamar Jackson didn’t practice all week and is unlikely to play. Tyler Huntley is dealing with an illness and is questionable. If he can’t go, Josh Johnson would get the start for the Ravens.
Jared Goff (COVID) is not expected to be available, so Tim Boyle should be under center for Detroit.

RB:

Leonard Fournette was put non IR, and Ronald Jones steps in as the lead back.
Dalvin Cook is OUT with COVID, so Alexander Mattison gets another start.
James Conner is a GTD on Saturday night.
Austin Ekeler (COVID) is not expected to be cleared - Justin Jackson figures to lead a committee and is a great play at Houston.
Kareem Hunt is on the COVID list
Rhamondre Stevenson is OUT (COVID), Damien Harris is questionable (hamstring), and so is Brandon Bolden (knee). J.J. Taylor, anyone?
D’Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson and David Johnson are all questionable to play.

WR AND TE:

OUT: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Brandin Cooks, Gabe Davis, Cole Beasley, Nelson Agholor, Pat Friermuth

DOUBTFUL: Jamison Crowder, Darren Waller, MVS (COVID, plays today)

QUESTIONABLE TO PLAY: Tyreek Hill (COVID), Allen Robinson (COVID), Travis Kelce (COVID), Kendrick Bourne (COVID), Breshad Perriman (COVID), Adam Thielen, Josh Reynolds, Elijah Moore (COVID), D.J. Moore, K. Toney

**************************************

BYES: NONE! But there are 2 SATURDAY games (CLE@GB, IND@ARI), in addition to THURSDAY (SF@TEN)

Rides and Fades

The Rides and Fades is an analysis of players I think will overperform or underperform against expectations, and who I think are notably strong or weak plays. This is not a straight-up start/sit column, and as a general rule, always start your studs. You likely won’t ever see me mentioning top 5 options at their positions as “Rides” - they aren’t in a position to overperform against very high expectations, plus you don’t need me or anyone else to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce or Cooper Kupp. While this column is intended for season-long play, it should be useful for DFS formats too.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week, at QB, RB, WR and TE.

The Rides and Fades had a decidedly mediocre week in Week 15, but considering how low the overall scoring was, I’ll take it. Click here to look at last week’s preview (or the shorter cheatsheet version) and you can see all the predictions for last week: https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-fantasy-preview-week-15 https://www.thepigskinpapers.com/posts-1/pigskin-papers-week-15-fantasy-cheatsheet .

COVID is again a big x-factor this week, as we don’t know how the NFL’s revised protocols will play out for a number of players who landed on the COVID list early this week. Check back here on Saturday for the update. Here we go - the Week 15 Rides and Fades:

QB

Rides:

Dak Prescott was a top name earlier in the season, but not now. He’s ranked near the bottom of the top 10 this week, which makes some sense given his recent struggles. Over the last 5 games he’s the QB 17, with a measly 5 TD passes against an equal number of INTs. He’s better than that, and I think this is a get-right week for him against a WFT defense that has improved, but that has still yielded the most fantasy points to QBs on the season, and is tied for allowing the most passing TDs (28). Dak is my QB Ride of the Week and I like him to finish inside the top 5 at his position.
Another fairly obvious name I want to highlight is Matt Stafford, who is ranked outside the top 5 this week. The Vikings are one of the bottom-ranked pass defenses on the season, and have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs. This game figures to be pretty high-scoring and I like Stafford to find Kupp and friends for multiple TDs. He’s got big-time top 5 potential this week.
Jalen Hurts is another QB ranked near the bottom of the top 10 who I’m high on this week. The Giants’ D is still playing hard, and playing decently well most of the time, but their putrid offense can’t sustain drives to keep them off the field. Look for Hurts to do damage with both his arm and legs.
Moving into the teens in the rankings, 2 names I like this week are Joe Burrow at home against Baltimore (he lit them up for more than 400 yards and 3 TDs in the first game, and the Ravens’ secondary is completely banged up), and Russell Wilson vs. Chicago (a big Russ game is coming one of these weeks, and this is an excellent matchup).
If you’re in need of a streamer, if Lamar Jackson can’t go, Tyler Huntley has very nice rushing upside as he showed last week.
And I like both of the QBs in the Atlanta - Detroit matchup as sleepers this week, assuming Jared Goff clears the COVID protocols - Goff if my QB Sleeper of the Week if he plays. And call me crazy but if you need a really, and I mean REALLY, deep sleeper this week (hey, maybe you’re in a 3 QB league), I wouldn’t be surprised if Drew Lock puts up decent numbers this week at the Raiders.

Fades:

Taysom Hill was my QB Fade of the Week last week. It worked out, and I’m running it back. This is risky, as Hill is a QB who often looks terrible, but ends up with lots of fantasy points anyway, because of his rushing ability. The Dolphins defense is a decent one, but one thing they do particularly well is defend running QBs. They didn’t let Cam Newton run on them at all, and contained Lamar Jackson as well. I like the Saints to win this one, but not because of Hill. He’s ranked as the QB10 this week and I think that’s too high. [UPDATE - HILL IS ON THE COVID LIST AND WILL MISS THE GAME THIS WEEK]
The QB opposite playing Hill this week is Tua, who has been a frequent streamer option mentioned in this column. But not this week. The Saints’ D is no joke and showed its teeth on Sunday night, and Tua hasn’t exactly been lighting it up of late.
A few more lower-ranked QBs that I’d avoid this week: Ryan Tannehill vs. the 49ers, Derek Carr vs. the Broncos, Big Ben at the Chiefs, and Cam Newton vs. the Bucs (I know, Newton had a good week for fantasy purposes last week - but not for football purposes, and now Sam Darnold may be in the mix - just stay away, for your own good).

RB

J-Rob: Ready for Takeoff Against the Jets

Rides:

This one is easy. The Jaguars are playing the Jets. The Jets just made Duke Johnson (a career third down back who has spent this season on the practice squad) look like Emmitt Smith. The Jets have allowed 21 rushing TDs this year - nobody else has allowed more than 16. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to RBs and that’s been true just about all season. They’re that bad (or good, if your RB is about to face them). James Robinson is my RB Ride of the Week, and he should be yours too.
CEH is a Ride for me this week. The Steelers continue to get pounded on the ground, week after week. Their defense allows the second most rushing yards per game and they’ve allowed a running back to go over 100 yards rushing in 3 of their last 4 games (and 2 of those went over 150). And if the Chiefs’ passing attack is missing either or both of Hill or Kelce (both are on the COVID list), look for the RBs to be more involved - in that scenario I also like Darrell Williams as a sleeper.
It’s Ronald Jones time! Many fantasy managers drafted Jones thinking he would be the leader of this backfield and after 14 weeks, he gets his opportunity to be just that, so hopefully you held onto him. At Carolina isn’t a great matchup, but with the Bucs’ offense missing a bunch of weapons, Jones should get plenty of volume, and some good scoring chances as the Bucs look to bounce back from being blanked last week.
If Cordarelle Patterson is eligible as an RB in your league, fire him up in that part of your lineup. The Lions are a great matchup (they’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to RBs, trailing only the Jets), and he’s overdue for a big game. He’s also not a bad play as a WR or flex, if he isn’t eligible as an RB.
Miles Sanders has back-to-back 100 yard games. What’s missing is TDs - he hasn’t scored one this season. Between Jordan Howard and Jalen Hurts, he gets vultured more than a dead donkey on a canyon floor. It’s a decent matchup this week against the Giants, and I think he makes his first trip to the end zone.
I’ve also got a few RB sleepers for you. Justin Jackson is a must-start at the Texans if Austin Ekeler can’t get off the COVID list, and even if Ekeler plays, Jackson is a decent sleeper against the NFL’s 32nd ranked rushing defense, in a game the Chargers should control throughout. Jackson is my RB Sleeper of the Week.
Here are a few more sleepers, if you need them: Michael Carter vs. the Jaguars [UPDATE - CARTER IS ON THE COVID LIST], Craig Reynolds at Atlanta, Tony Pollard vs. the WFT, Ameer Abdullah vs. Tampa Bay, and Sony Michel at the Vikings (I think he’ll retain a decent-sized role the rest of the way).

The Fades:

James Conner has really impressed this year, and has made our Rides list a whole bunch of times. But not this week. There’s a lot working against him this week: he’s dealing with multiple injuries, Chase Edmonds is back (and out snapped him last week), and the Colts are a tough matchup, having allowed the third fewest fantasy points to RBs. Conner is my RB Fade of the Week.
Jeff Wilson finally got rolling last week, and he’s in for another start tonight at Tennessee. Wilson should see plenty of volume, but it’s a bad matchup and I’d avoid it if you can. The Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs, and they’ve been especially tough over the last month or so.
Another back who made a lot of noise this past week was Duke Johnson - who was in exactly zero fantasy lineups (if you started him last week, email me and send me proof!)...unlike his running mate Myles Gaskin who was a painful bust in plenty of fantasy playoff lineups. I’m like 1 for 14 in my Gaskin predictions this season. But that was last week, and it was against the Jets. This week, the opponent is the Saints, who just shut out the highest scoring offense in the NFL and rank right behind the Titans in allowing the fewest fantasy points to RBs. The Miami backfield is muddled, with one or both of Philip Lindsay and Malcolm Brown also potentially returning to join Johnson and Gaskin. I’d avoid the Miami backfield entirely.
I’m nervous about Rashaad Penny this week. The Seahawks backfield could get either or both of Alex Collins and Adrian Peterson back, and DeeJay Dallas is getting a lot of the passing downs work. He isn’t the clear-cut workhorse and he’s a Fade for me against the Bears.
A few more Fades: Devonta Freeman at the Bengals, Chuba Hubbard vs. the Bucs, and Jamaal Williams at the Falcons (if he is off the COVID list).

WR

Rides:

Stack attack! You know I’m high on Dak Prescott this week, and I’m pairing that optimism with CeeDee Lamb, who also is overdue for a big game. The WFT have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to WRs, and I think Lamb is going to give them all kinds of problems coming out of the slot and wherever else he lines up. He’s ranked near the bottom of the top 10 this week and I like him for a top 5 finish - he’s my WR Ride of the Week.
Between his ankle injury and his suspension, we haven’t seen Antonio Brown since Week 6. Well, surprise, surprise, Bruce Arians lied when he said Brown only had one chance in Tampa, and Brown is expected back this week. With the Bucs’ WR corps decimated by injury, I expect him to be very busy and highly productive. He’s a Ride, and I also like Tyler Johnson in this one as a sleeper.
I’m in on both of these WRs, who are facing each other this week: Amon Ra St. Brown (assuming Jared Goff plays) and Russell Gage. It’s a good matchup both ways, and each of these players has emerged as the clear WR1 for his team.
I’ve got a COVID comeback special for you - I’m firing up Jaylen Waddle at the Saints, and Tyler Lockett against the Bears - both should be returning to their respective lineups this week and both were sorely missed by their QB last week. I think they’ll both be busy this week.
It’s Twofer Thursday and here’s another duo of Rides for you - 2 WRs who aren’t quite sleepers but who are ranked down in the low 20s this week - Van Jefferson at the Vikings and Christian Kirk at home vs. the Colts.
And let’s get to the sleepers. Allen Lazard has benefitted from the absence of Randall Cobb, and this week, the Packers might also be without MVS (COVID). The big-bodied Lazard has been getting goal line looks and he’s my WR Sleeper of the Week. A few more sleepers that I like this week: Josh Reynolds at Atlanta (again, assuming Jared Goff plays), and both Marvin Jones, Jr. and Jamison Crowder in the Jets-Jags tilt, which some people are calling the game of the century. I can’t wait to hear the announcers hyping up the top 2 picks from the 2021 draft, who’ve both had abysmal seasons. One last one, but it’s conditional - if Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce is out, this could finally be the week where Mecole Hardman shows up in the box score.

Fades:

Michael Pittman was my WR Fade of the Week last week and it paid off, ejection or not. After a very hot stretch, he’s now gone 5 games without a TD, more than 6 catches, or more than 77 yards, as the Colts have leaned on their running game and defense more and more. Arizona is a decent matchup, but still, he’s my WR Fade of the Week, again.
And I’ll fade D.J. Moore again as well. The Bucs have gotten stingier and stinger as the season has worn on, and the Panthers QB situation is a mess. I love the talent but it’s just a bad situation.
I’ll just run this back from last week’s column: “Jerry Jeudy has been a regular entry in the Fades, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind. Jeudy hasn’t scored a TD all year, nor has he exceeded 6 catches or 80 yards in a game all year. The Broncos are a run-first team and their backs also get lots of targets. It’s time to accept the reality that Jeudy is a fantasy bust this year.” Two things I’ll add: Jeudy was held without a catch last week, but on the plus side I think the Broncos’ WRs will benefit from having Drew Lock under center. However, good luck trying to figure out which of their 3 WRs will benefit most, and so any one of them is a very risky start.
A few more Fades this week: Darnell Mooney at the Seahawks (despite what Cooper Kupp just did to them, they’ve been very stingy against WRs for the last month or so), Kenny Golladay at the Eagles (it hasn’t happened all year, so it would be foolish to expect it now), Chase Claypool at the Chiefs (ditto, for the most part), and Gabe Davis at the Patriots (it’s a very bad matchup).

TE

Rides:

Once you get past the obvious names (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, Gronk), it’s really hard to find TEs with much of a trust factor. But here goes. The Colts have struggled against the position all year (4th most fantasy points allowed) and especially recently - last week, Hunter Henry scored twice on them. I’ll take Zach Ertz as my TE Ride of the Week.
The main weapon for Jalen Hurts last week was Dallas Goedert, who posted his best receiving game of the season. I like the matchup with the Giants. Ride.
Jared Cook is in a favorable spot this week, against a Texans’ defense that’s in the bottom 10 vs. the position, and with Donald Parham out. He’s a Ride.
Gerald Everett is the TE9 over the last 4 weeks, but he keeps getting ranked outside the top 15. I like him this week against the Bears, and he’s my TE Sleeper of the Week.
Another sleeper to consider (and I can’t believe I’m actually about to recommend a member of the Giants’ offense - someone please slap some sense into me) is Evan Engram. This one is all about the matchup. The Eagles have allowed the second most fantasy points and second most TDs (11) to TEs on the season. Only the Chargers are worse.
Speaking of which, Brevin Jordan (knee) was active last week for the Texans, but didn’t log any snaps. He’s a risky play this week, but he scored in 2 of the 3 games before last week, and the matchup with the Chargers is a great one. He’s another sleeper to consider.

Fades:

Foster Moreau is coming off a good game (finally), but the Denver defense is where TEs go to die. They’ve still only allowed 1 TD to the position all year, and the second fewest fantasy points. Moreau is my TE Fade of the Week.
When Dalton Schultz faced the WFT a few weeks ago, he barely made the stat sheet, with just one catch on just 3 targets. He’s a very risky start this week, as Dak should be able to find his 3 talented WRs early and often. Schultz is a Fade for me.
Two more TEs I’m fading, in the same game and with the same first name: Tyler Conklin vs. the Rams and Tyler Higbee at the Vikings. It’s not a great spot for either one.

Good luck to all in Round 2 of the Fantasy Playoffs. Check back with the Pigskin Papers next Tuesday for the weekly Waiver Wire column, and the weekly Fantasy Recap.

***This column appears each Thursday morning, and the weekly waiver wire and weekly fantasy recap columns post each Tuesday. Please bookmark the site and come back often, and follow us on Social Media on Instagram (thepigskinpapers) and Twitter (@PigskinPapers). We appreciate your patronage and welcome your feedback. You can post in the comment boxes or email us at pigskinpapers@gmail.com.***

DH

Pigskin Papers Fantasy Preview - Week 16

Pigskin Papers Preview - Cheatsheet Week 16

Pigskin Papers Postscript - Week 15

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